Predictions for the Conference USA Championship Game
FB: Well, despite a meandering course with a couple of lackadaisical performances, the Tops of the gridiron find themselves in the Conference USA Championship Game. We ask our staff to weigh in.
Western Kentucky Football finds itself exactly where it wanted to be. The Tops were predicted to finish behind Liberty and basically tied with Jacksonville State competing for the second spot in the Conference USA Championship. Well, it turned out there was a four way race, Liberty ends up fourth, Sam Houston barely misses out, JSU dominated all season, and WKU squeaks into the championship game with some help and a big win at the end of the season. Go figure!
The stage is set, and ultimately, WKU has massive momentum and knows JSU’s quarterback is hobbled, and the Tops were able to handle JSU’s vaunted running attack, specifically the Gamecocks’ superstar running back Tre Stewart, who had not rushed for under 96 yards since September. Stewart had 85 yards and was not able to bust a single run for more than 14 yards, an incredible accomplishment by the Topper defense.
For this “run it back” version of CUSA action, the game will not be played in the friendly confines of The Houch, but the should be hostile environment at AmFirst Stadium in Jacksonville, Alabama (no, not Florida).
Before this past week when WKU won a 19-17 chess match on a last second field goal by surefire All-American kicker Lucas Carneiro, Jacksonville State had been on a holy tear, looking relatively invincible, and the Tops had looked like they had a big case of the yips. Whatever the heck happened, JSU was not as good as normal offensively, WKU’s defense held JSU to three scores, and the offense came up with five for the first time in a long time. The first time the defense and offense did exactly that (three or less scores allowed AND five scores offensively) was against Kennesaw State on October 30.
WKU had truly fallen into a trance, and although they didn’t completely snap out of it (four field goals made instead of touchdowns, overthrown balls to wide open receivers, and one lost fumble), the Tops had a nice performance and came up with what they needed in big moments.
This week, WKU will have to play better, because JSU will almost certainly play better at home, and Tre Stewart will almost certainly be more angry than a JSU fan watching opposing fans snickering at cheerleaders pulling their “C-O-C-K-S” out after scores.
The Gamecocks already gave the Hilltoppers everything they could handle, and now this game is at their place for a championship on short rest. The Tops will have to step it up, or they could get blown out of the stadium if JSU shows up ready to go get a ring.
The question of the day:
We always ask our staff to comment on something besides just “gimme a score and why?” This week, we want our staff to talk about what a conference championship would mean. Now, this could be taken in many ways. Emotionally for you personally? This season? The program? The players? Tyson Helton’s legacy at WKU? Former players and staff? The world is their oyster, as long as the oyster is somewhat relevant to the question at hand!
Predictions
Matt McCay
It really felt like the Tops were going to screw that up. I mean, not only during the game Saturday (which I freely admit I was completely wrong about and am happy to do so), but also the last month of football. There were signs that WKU was not as sharp as it was since about Sam Houston or so (October 16). The offense was missing obvious chances, the defense was starting to show cracks, especially on the ground, and the Tops were losing to teams they probably should have handled (ahem, La Tech). But you know what? They didn’t lose Saturday, and we cautioned people: Just because it looks bad doesn’t mean it ends bad. If you’re not eliminated, you always have a chance, and sometimes, your teams finds a way. The Tops have found a way to be 60 minutes from glory.
WHO CARES ABOUT THE REST OF IT?!? We’re here. Let’s beat the Gamecocks.
This win would mean so much to me, personally. As a manager from 2009-14, man, we went through 0-12, 2-10, getting skipped by bowl games twice, and never actually even won a bowl game. We played in one, but that was it. I graduated after the spring of 2014. Fast forward: Now, we don’t lose bowl games, the expectation is a winning season, and we’ve got two rings, and they happened back-to-back under a legendary coach with a huge heart. I come from a WKU era of struggle and relative mediocrity. But dadgumit, we paved the way for these players and coaches and staff to enjoy a program with stability that can win big. We’re still waiting on that true “Everest” moment, but for me, winning a championship is the most magnificent thing a Topper could ever ask for. When you win a championship, you are the best, and no one can ever take that from you. I never knew that feeling as a part of a team, but winning a championship would feel like I was part of something absolutely incredible and something I could forever be proud of.
As far as this game, I dare not doubt the Tops again, especially when JSU has to make the most improvements. WKU was able to move the ball, did what they wanted to offensively and defensively and on special teams. JSU couldn’t run the ball with ease, couldn’t pass the ball, has the more significant injury questions (QB). WKU has injury issues at tight end (River Helms-OUT) and left tackle (Travon Taylor-Questionable), but those pale in comparison to having an injured signal caller solely responsible for way over half of your offense.
I like the Tops, now that I’ve seen that WKU can somewhat handle the JSU offense. JSU is the one that has to come up with 300+ yards rushing to beat WKU, and that number rises if WKU’s offense can play like it’s capable of and produce another touchdown or two instead of kick a thousand field goals. WKU is the one that can still screw up a ton and win, and JSU needs to play well to beat the Tops, even if WKU isn’t its sharpest. For these reasons, give me WKU 34-JSU 28. This game should be much more high scoring, but WKU will rise to the occasion.
Alex Sherfield
What does winning the CUSA Championship mean?
After a decade removed from the Jeff Brohm tenure, it would be a blanket of relief as it would show the Hilltoppers getting it done in the most recent college football landscape. It would also patch a missing hole of being unable to clinch a title after falling to UTSA twice in 2021. Given the conference shakeup & new teams being added in, it looks like Western reaped every single benefit that appeared in 2024.
Regardless of what happens with Tyson Helton after this season, it would be a perfect way to cap off his legacy on The Hill throughout his tenure. Earlier this year before the season kicked off, Coach Helton did vow to make this team (mostly, a motley crew of castaways via the transfer portal & an emphasis on local talent from surrounding SOKY communities) more competitive and that they’ll at least keep themselves in contention with Liberty, Jax State, (and eventually Sam Houston State). I think that after whatever happens on Friday night, you cannot argue that compared to seasons past, he and the coaching staff have outdone their expectations. At this point, WHO ELSE BUT THE TOPS?!
In recent times, it’s been very hard to beat a conference foe twice in any given season. While the Tops took care of business last weekend at home, a return trip to Jacksonville, Alabama, will not be easy, especially if that includes bringing back some shiny hardware. As much as the high-scoring offense will be relied upon to carry the Tops, I could see a repeat of last week, where it’ll come down to being a defensive slugfest.
Give me WKU 26, Jax State 23
Jake Gary
What would a win in the CUSA championship mean for the Tops? Emotionally, the fan base would give a great exhale. It would be similar to what happened in basketball last season. Tops were so close to making the NCAA Tournament constantly, and when they finally got over the hump it was a cathartic experience for the fans. Similarly, Helton needs to win a CUSA championship to prove he wont be remembered as a football Stansbury, someone who put together good teams, but was never quite great enough to elevate the team to win a title. So this championship is a battle for both the fans, and Helton’s legacy. Cause if Helton wins, he can ride off into the sunset with good job offers. If he loses, fans grow anxious with him being unable to get over the hump and I’m sure that athletic directors around the country will take note, as well.
It was one heck of a game when they last met, filled with a lot of mistakes on both sides. Costly drops for Jax State, and costly turnovers at big moments for WKU. The Hilltoppers managed to overcome the mistakes and barely edge out a victory off a 50 yard field goal. So what happens next time when they meet down in Alabama? I imagine it goes the same way. A battle of two good teams for the title, and I bet Carneiro is once again a hero and wins it for the Tops with no time left. If Veltkamp can be accurate and avoid turning the ball over, that is the key for the Toppers offense. The key for the Toppers defense will be to stop the QB run and to make sure they continue to force negative plays on first down like they did in the first game against Jax State.
WKU 22-Jax State 21
As always, #GoTops
Devin Stewart
On the RedOut Podcast Wednesday, Devin said he thought WKU needed to convert on some more opportunities and find a way to hold Jacksonville State’s offense at bay. If you want to hear his full thoughts, make sure you check out The RedOut Podcast Episode from this week.
WKU 23-JSU 21
David McCay
I think the same things are important as last week: Protect the ball, get turnovers, and win the turnover battle. This will be especially important on the road. Value points and use your kicker as a weapon and not an after thought. Evaluate film and figure out defensive tendencies. Find holes, use layered routes, slants, and crossing routes. Messer, running backs, and the tight must be used in the passing attack. Contain their rushing attack and passing again. Score into the 30s.
My bipolar gut feeling:
If WKU makes improvements: 23-21 WKU
Otherwise, it’s a blowout: 35-14 Jax State.
Bret Combest
I’m predicting we will win a hard-fought game. I think we score about 25 on offense. A championship would mean a whole lot after losing some tough games to Boston College, Liberty, and La Tech. But a win proves that we still have it in us, Western is the force to be reckoned with! GET SOME, GAMECOCKS!
WKU 24-JSU 14
Conclusion
Clearly, we’re a little biased here at The Towel Rack. But also, the Tops seemingly exorcised some demons and played some good football Saturday. Six days later, the Tops head south for the winter to play the birds at their place. The first game was won on a last second kick by the Tops. Could Lucas Carneiro and the Tops drop another 50 yard bomb to win it at the buzzer? Or can JSU muster a few more positive possessions, get a few first downs late in the possession, and find a way to overcome a pretty good Topper defense that proved capable the first time?
We think WKU wins it, despite the change in venue. Call us biased with Big Red glasses on. We’ll take that label. Tops by 90.
GO TOPS! BEAT JSU!
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GO TOPS!!!!