Red Towel Roundtable: Grading the Toppers at the Bye Week

I’ve got good news for you Hilltopper fans — WKU cannot lose a football game this week. Rejoice!

I’ve got good news for you Hilltopper fans — WKU cannot lose a football game this week. Rejoice!

That’s because the bye week is here and what better time to assess the year that has been so far than to get the writing staff together and talk about the ups and downs.

For this week’s roundtable, I have asked each writer to give a grade for how they think the Hilltoppers have done over the first five weeks of the season.

Fletcher Keel — Incomplete

The thing you’re going to read from everyone is how the Hilltoppers have had a bounty of opportunity to win games and be…well, better than 1–4 in the win/loss column. Because, in reality, the Tops are better than 1–4.

Mike Sanford in his bye-week media availability yesterday said something that really struck me as…something I wouldn’t expect a coach to say.

That…was interesting for me to hear. I, and a lot of other people, are quick to point out quite the opposite; the Tops are just a few points away from being 4–1, but when your duty is to see what’s wrong as opposed to what’s right, like a head coach, I can see where that came from.

Anyway, back to my original point. Before August started, I wrote something of a how-to guide when it comes to enjoying the 2018 season, operating under the assumption the season would go as poorly as our Twitter mentions indicated (and, I think a lot of those folks are saying “I told you so,” about now).

In it, I said the following:

I, personally, am taking this season much in the same way I’d take a similarly-circumstanced season for one of my favorite pro teams. I’m going to keep a keen eye on the development, as well as the talent that commits to come for 2019 and beyond, and start building up those expectations for then.

So far, that’s exactly what the 2018 season has been for WKU. No one has denied that they can see the growth (except for those who are obviously Sanford-blind and nothing will ever change their mind) and they’ve been in just about every game, sans Wisconsin.

This is a football team that we’ve yet to see play four quarters, 60 minutes, of football. And because they’ve yet to play a complete game, I cannot give them a complete grade.

Ross Shircliffe — D

There’s no other way to put it thus far, this year has been well below the expectations that were built for the program over the over the last decade.

Mike Sanford has repeatedly blown chances to break out and show that the program is moving in the right direction: Play competitively against Wisconsin, then blow it against Maine (after taking a 21–0 lead), be in control against a bad P5 team (Louisville) and then self-destructing at the 1-yard line to go up 15 points in the second half and losing a game against the worst UofL team in a decade.

Finally get a tough win over Ball State and then returning home and giving up a 98-yard drive and fumbling away the ensuing game-winning drive against another rival in Mashall.

The repeated missed opportunities have shown this coaching staff still has a long way to go to not just compete for conference titles (which is what program was doing for five years prior to Sanford) but even win games, which is disheartening when you take into account where the program was just 18 games ago.

I’ll be the first to admit that there have been signs of encouragement but until the staff shows they can get the team to play with discipline and finish drives, you can’t spin this season as anything other than the repeated mediocrity of the Sanford era (7–11 overall).

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again; his style of play leaves him with no margin for error. WKU is scoring just 18.6 points per game. When you look back at every loss, you can find one or two decisions or plays that have cost the team the game. If you’re scoring consistently (30+ points per game) one play doesn’t matter as much. WKU’s defense has been solid all year but if the offense isn’t scoring then it puts much more pressure on them to be flawless (see: Saturday against Marshall).

Football is a game of inches and if one or two things changed, WKU could easily be 4–1. But I’m a firm believer that breaks work both ways and the coaching staff, not the players, are to blame for the close losses. WKU should be at least 2–3 at this point.

Can WKU turn their season around? Of course they can. They’ve shown signs of being able to be competitive but now have to put it all together. Having a bye and hopefully getting a confidence-boosting win over Charlotte could go a long way. But, tests on the road against MTSU, FAU and Louisiana Tech make a winning season very improbable and saying that just shows how far that Sanford has let the program fall in just year two.

Devin Stewart — D

D for devastated.

After 5 games and a month of play, WKU is sitting at 1–4 and tied for last in the Conference USA’s East division.

Let me rip the Band Aid off quickly here: WKU has a D grading out the first month of play in my book. There are positives to each of these games and, understandably, there’s lots of negatives.

Wisconsin was a game that Eckels stood out and played well. The Topper defense held a Heisman candidate in Jonathon Taylor to 145 yards and two touchdowns (or he got tired). However, it would’ve been nice to at least score a touchdown. Even though this was a game WKU fans knew was a lose when they saw the schedule, I think WKU did well.

The loss to Maine is a back breaker with the fan base. To go from scoring 21 points in 90 seconds, then allowing 28 unanswered points is ridiculous. This was the team WKU was supposed to smack around, not vice versa. After the game, the fan base came out on social media with torches and pitchforks in hand.

Louisville is the game where the Tops can claim the moral victory. I hate moral victories. Louisville had a total of 292 yards compared to Western’s 428 yards. On third downs, Louisville only converted 2-of-11 while WKU was 9-of-17. Shanley and Ferby helped throw the WKU offense into overdrive, with Shanley compiling 240 yards passing and Ferby adding 74 rushing yards on the ground. Finally Western had over 100 yards rushing and 260 yards through the air. But the Tops were on the opposite end of some, literal, bad rolls, like the blocked field goal that rolled all the way back to the WKU 31. WKU’s defense had a chance to seal the game, but they couldn’t stop Cunningham. Louisville only has Cunningham to thank for that victory.

Ball State is a game that everyone needed. It felt like a relief. It would’ve been nice to beat Louisville but WKU fans will take beating Ball State however we can get it. Shanley went down mid way through the game and most Topper fans collectively held their breath, because before this game Duncan hadn’t done anything.

But he proved us wrong, helping lead the Western offense to 446 total yards. But, it turned into an offensive battle, after the defense missed tackles and allowing Ball State too many second chances on plays, helping the Cardinals accumulate 406 yards.

Marshall was the game that the defense showed up, forcing four turnovers off a young Marshall quarterback in Isiah Green, but were unable to get a pass rush going; sometimes allowing Green six or eight seconds in the pocket, which is an eternity for lineman. The offensive line struggled early but improved as the game went on. Duncan had a few bad reads early and “fumbled” with 40 seconds to go on the 10 yard line. It was a devastating loss to lead into a bye week.

There’s pros and cons to this first month of play, but overall it isn’t enough for me to justify bumping the grade up. But we can still improve and pull out a possible bowl eligible season. It might be an uphill battle but it’s possible.

Sam Gormley — Incomplete

I remember back in kindergarten one of the grades we could get was an “Incomplete.” For me, it was my handwriting that always seemed to give me that grade. Even to this day sometimes I will write and it’ll be perfect penmanship, the next time will look like it was written by a four-year-old who is hyped up on Mountain Dew. (ed. note — did anyone else hear that in the kid’s voice from Ricky Bobby?)

I think that is the perfect way to describe this year’s WKU team: An incomplete.

What makes me feel good about this, though, is that they are in “kindergarten” of sorts. They are still young and have the time to find themselves out, but it is the ups and downs that are recognized fully.

When this team has “perfect handwriting,” for example during the first five minutes of the Maine game and at other times throughout the year, I truly do believe they could compete with any team in Conference USA. With that being said, they are still young and sometimes go back to the “bad handwriting.” The issue is when it’s bad…it’s baaaaad.

In all seriousness, I think this team is starting to come together more and more. Mike Sanford has hopefully already hit his rock bottom as the coach of the Toppers and can only go up from here now. If I had to put an actual letter grade on the season so far, I’d say a “C-.” As they always say, “C’s get degrees,” and a “C” should have one more year of Mike Sanford, but he is skating right on the edge so far. Now the question is will Sanford remain a “C-Student,” fail or pass with flying colors. I don’t think anyone has the answer to that.

Jared Rosdeutscher — C+

The overall grade I’d have to give the Tops up to this point is a C+ and the only reason the plus is in there is because they’ve actually won a game (and had three others they should have won slip through their fingers) but the C is definitely justified, if not a little generous.

This season hasn’t started the way any of us would’ve expected with all the offseason hype and the strong recruiting class coming in but at the end of the day, this is the youngest team in the FBS and with youth comes inexperience.

That inexperience has definitely shown up to this point. With several miscues, inexplicable penalties and an offensive line which has struggled, not much has blossomed on offense when they’ve needed it to. At times, WKU’s offense looks pretty good regardless of the quarterback at helm but in situations where they needed to score in order to win the game, they couldn’t get it done.

The defense has been very impressive this year though. They’ve done a great job getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks and at forcing turnovers. They’ve had some bad penalties as well but overall the defense is the best it’s been in a few seasons.

As far as coaching goes, Sanford has done average at best. He hasn’t put his team in the best position to succeed in certain situations and while he is aware of that, not much has changed. I like the fact that he has had faith in his team to try to convert a fourth and short but that doesn’t mean that you should put them in a position that if they fail it’s guaranteed points for the other team (the Maine game, for example).

I’m hoping that this young team (and coach) continue to learn and improve as this season progresses. They will have some tough challenges within in the C-USA but if they can learn how to actually get the ball in the endzone then they could surprise a lot of people.

Jacob Keith — D+

Every ounce of me wants this to be higher. Watching the improvement from one game to the next, living and dying in these close games, it’s so tempting to drink that Kool-Aid and buy into the moral victories. But I can’t and here are the two main reasons why.

Inconsistency

One week the offense is putting up stellar numbers and there are rushing yards galore. But then the defense is awful, giving up 400 yards to a bottom tier G5 team. The next week the Tops hold one of the most veteran and talented teams in the league to 20 points… but only score 17 and have trouble capitalizing on turnovers. One week Sanford makes all the right calls, and the next he runs valuable seconds off the clock and makes boneheaded moves all night.

Inconsistency is the mark of a poorly coached and managed team.

Record

I am tired of people saying “wait till next year” with Sanford. (Sorry not sorry if that’s some of the guys in the rest of this piece.) Yes the team is young. Yes Sanford is still implementing his system and his staff and his players. But this wasn’t a rebuild. This was back-to-back conference championships and bowl victories. This was one of the top G5 teams in the nation. I’ll grant you that it’s difficult in your first few years. But at the end of the day, Sanford is a wealthy man now. He’s paid to win football games and he’s not doing that.

I haven’t wavered from the stance that next season Mike Sanford will be coaching for his job. WKU will give him that much leash. I don’t believe there is a circumstance where he is fired this season for on the field performance. But if next year the proverbial switch doesn’t flip. He will be back to being a poorly performing coordinator.

Matt McCay — C-

This is a tough one for me. I need a solid scale to minimize my bias here. On the one hand, the 1–4 (0–1 C-USA) record is certainly troubling, but we also should factor in preseason expectations, luck, talent level and pigheadedness.

Preseason Expectations: D

Topper fans expected at least one win, but did not expect that one win to be against Ball State. No one had it on their radar to actually lose to Maine. Maine didn’t expect Maine to win. Reasonable expectations would put the Tops somewhere between 2–3 and 4–1 at this point in the season. Pile in the fact WKU could realistically be 4–1 with a Power 5 win and yikes.

Luck: A

The only way to account for horrible luck is to count it in Sanford’s favor. I mean, goodness gracious. Could anything else not have gone right for the Tops? Three of the losses by a field goal each, injured QB’s and others, drops, 50+ yards lost on a field goal block without a return while attempting to go up two scores, 50% field goals, opponents making 93% field goals, and opponents are 14–14 in the red zone. Slice it how you want, but that’s less luck than getting crapped on by a bird. The only positive luck was not blowing it against Ball State.

Talent Level: B+

Let’s just get honest here: This team is good enough to have won 11 games if the stars aligned. Yet here we are nearly halfway staring at the possibility of 1–11. This team comes across like a good football team, yet it so far has just found ways to lose. This team has very few massive weaknesses, and that is a huge improvement from last year. Credit Sanford for the talent development and upgrades.

Execution: D-

There is no way to be happy about a 1–4 record when the range of expectations for the year was between four and eight wins. By any math, they’re not on pace to do that. Given the talent, this trend can’t continue.

Pigheadedness: F-

I don’t think there’s much debate here. Sanford has tried to keep opponents off-balance by unorthodox decisions. However, 2-for-8 on fourth down is an awful statistic when most of those were unnecessary. Sanford made the strange trick play call in the red zone against Wisconsin, and then made the 4th-and-1 blunder in a tie game at Maine. Surely the shenanigans stopped then. Nope. Oink oink.