Red Towel Roundtable: Talking Post-Mitchell Robinson Life For WKU
On Sunday, news broke that the Mitchell Robinson saga had finally come to a close, as he announced he’d be leaving WKU to focus on training…
On Sunday, news broke that the Mitchell Robinson saga had finally come to a close, as he announced he’d be leaving WKU to focus on training for the 2018 NBA Draft.
While it came as a shock, WKU fans quickly got over the whole ordeal, as they had grown tired of the back-and-forth in Robinson’s mind.
However, some questions still lingered. That’s why I reached out to three college basketball writers — College Hoop News’ Tony Patelis, College Basketball Central’s Kevin Sweeney and Mid-Major Madnesses’ Russell Steinberg — to ask what’s next for both Robinson and the Toppers.
The Towel Rack: The Mitchell Robinson saga is finally over. Walk me through your thought processes and feelings with each twist and turn in it.
Tony Patelis: An absolute circus. We’ve seen plenty of twists and turns with recruits over the years, but I don’t think we’ve seen anything like this. I know we can all laugh at the situation but when you step back and drink it all in, we have major problems at the recruiting level. Too many of these kids are getting influenced by people close to them — many not in a good way. Looking at this situation, Robinson seems very immature. At some point you need to step up and make your own decisions. I’m confident he had a lot of people in his ear. Just a bad situation overall.
Kevin Sweeney: Honestly, this situation has been as weird as anything I’ve ever witnessed in the college basketball landscape. I remember innocently wondering when Shammond Williams departed from Western Kentucky if there would be any ripple effect with Robinson, but I never expected it would happen like this. The whole situation, whether it be Robinson retweeting things about him leaving or returning, the conflicting reports from the media, and his final decision are unlike anything I’ve ever covered. As a neutral fan of mid-major basketball, this situation ending this way frustrates me, as I question if any 5-star will ever want to go to a non-traditional power after this craziness.
Russell Steinberg: I first saw Robinson playing at Peach Jam in the summer of 2016, so he was committed to Western Kentucky by this point. He wasn’t dominant, but it was clear that he was one of the best bigs on the circuit and could have been an instant contributor at any high-major school. So, naturally, there were whispers around the gym about how he could have possibly ended up at WKU. With that being my real introduction to Robinson (I had hear of him prior, but really didn’t know anything about him), it did not come as a surprise to me when he de-committed the first time. The surprise was that it came as late as it did and after he had already started summer classes. But fine. If you’re really unhappy somewhere, get out. Especially if the main reason you committed (your godfather) is no longer at the school. It would have been unlikely, but I could have seen a scenario where he received a waiver to play at Kansas or LSU or wherever. And…then he came back to WKU. That was weird. By now it was clear that Robinson would be on campus for no longer than a year and he wasn’t happy about it. So why would you come back? It made no sense. It almost seemed fitting that he ultimately left again.
TTR: A lot of WKU fans, when Robinson first left, were worried that people would think down on the program for Robinson wanting to leave. Were they right to worry?
TP: Absolutely not. These things happen all the time; not to this magnitude obviously, but kids decommit often. Rick Stansbury has done a great job bringing in talent since his arrived on campus.
KS: I don’t necessarily think Robinson leaving makes WKU look bad. To me, the blame goes on Robinson, who just simply couldn’t make up his mind. If anything makes the Hilltopper program look bad, it’s the cumulation of all these events this past year, whether it be the Jordan Brangers situation, Robinson Idehen, or the entire coaching staff other than Stansbury departing this summer. The program from the outside seems to be heaped in turmoil, and that isn’t a good look for one of the better mid-majors in college hoops. I’ve been told that things weren’t nearly as crazy inside the program this summer as some made it out to be, but that doesn’t help public perception.
RS: I don’t think people are going to think any less of WKU because Robinson left. With all due respect to WKU, they’re a mid-major school and Robinson is a consensus top-15 recruit in the country. The match was strange to begin with, though not unheard of. WKU still has the reputation as a perennially competitive program for its league, even though it’s fallen off a bit in recent years. Just because things didn’t work out with one of the best prospects in the country doesn’t change anything. Stansbury is still bringing in solid recruits and will continue to do so.
TTR: How much damage did all of this do to his brand in terms of a professional player? Are NBA teams going to be more cautious with him than they would even if he had still left and come back?
TP: Yes, I do think it hurts his stock. I’ve already heard a scout say “he’s a huge red flag.” Before all this, he was most likely a late lottery pick. Now? I’d probably say late first round, maybe early second. Regardless of the problems, he’s a major talent so he will get an opportunity somewhere.
KS: Robinson’s stock is likely to be debated as much as any player’s in the 2018 draft class. On its face, this summer’s wild ride has to be a massive red flag for NBA front offices. That said, there is no denying Robinson’s upside, and not playing this year may not hurt his stock the way many think it will. We saw in the 2016 draft with Thon Maker and the 2017 draft process with Hamidou Diallo that draft stock can actually rise by not having film. Robinson’s elite physical tools are sure to make scouts salivate, and they won’t have the film of 30+ college games to critique and see his flaws.
RS: I think the amount of damage the saga itself did to his brand is a bit overstated. Sure, teams now know that maybe he doesn’t receive great advice or he might be a bit immature…but when has that mattered? The kid is still loaded with talent and he’s just that: a kid. I have a sister who is his age and there’s no way I’d expect her to confidently make the biggest decisions of her life with the whole basketball world watching and asking questions at every turn. He’ll grow, he’ll mature. The problem comes in what happens next. For all we know, he could get the best sort of training/coaching available to him this winter and get even better than he would have at Western Kentucky. But how would we be able to tell? Not playing competitive basketball for a whole season, even in Conference USA, is a huge risk. If NBA scouts want to see him in a semi-competitive environment, they have to go back a year and look at high school tape. There are other big men in the class who will have a more recent track-record against Division I competition. That’s where this could ultimately hurt him.
TTR: Basically all minds say WKU will still have a competitive team without Robinson. But what does this do to Stansbury’s name/presence on the recruiting trail, if anything at all?
TP: Again, I don’t blame the school or the coaching staff all that much. I mean how can you? They did their job by getting a commitment from him, which is extremely difficult at a non-Power 6 school. I guess maybe taking him back the second time, you can criticize them. Some coaches maybe at that point say take a hike. But all in all, I put this on Robinson. I also think former coach Shammond Williams played a huge part in this. Just a hunch.
KS: This whole situation shouldn’t have a huge impact on Stansbury’s reputation on the recruiting trail. After all, it’s not like he had a sterling reputation to begin with. We’ve all seen his ability to land high-level talent, whether it be Josh Anderson in the 2017 class or grad transfers Dwight Coleby and Darius Thompson. It may lead to some concerns for certain recruits, especially with potential one-and-done guys (2019 target Charles Bassey for instance), but overall I don’t think this severely impacts future recruiting efforts.
RS: Western Kentucky will still be solid this year. The 2017–18 team is still going to be worth watching. And I don’t think this will do too much damage to Stansbury on the recruiting trail. Like I said, this was a special case. Stansbury hired Robinson’s godfather and that was a huge factor. If he didn’t do that AND have a prior relationship with Robinson (remember, Robinson originally committed to Texas A&M when Stansbury was an assistant), this whole thing probably never happens. Stansbury is still known as an ace recruiter and will probably still pull in talent normally better than the CUSA level. Even if they aren’t top-15 guys.
TTR: Finally, I’m going to ask for a couple of predictions from you: 1.) Where does Robinson get drafted and who takes the chance and 2.) How does WKU’s season go?
TP: 1.) Tough to say who takes a chance on him but, as I said earlier, I can’t see him going in the lottery. Too much baggage. And that’s sad. His best option, in my opinion, was to suck it up even if you aren’t happy and play the year out at WKU.
2.) Before Justin Johnson decided not to play football and with Robinson in limbo, I had some concerns obviously. Losing Jordan Brangers was also a big hit. But, looking at the roster now, I still think they have enough for a top four finish in CUSA. A big issue last year was point guard play, so brining in a talent like Lamonte Bearden is huge. Johnson and Bearden will form one of the better duos in the league. Hopefully Diagne will be eligible. If so, that’s some really good depth up front. Dwight Coleby should make a solid contribution as well. The top of the league is really strong so it should be a fun race. MTSU, LA Tech, & UAB should all be in the mix at the top.
KS: 1.) I’d guess Robinson winds up in the 13–18 range in the first round of the NBA Draft. Sure, this saga will definitely be a red flag, but he’s simply too talented to drop that much on draft boards. I could definitely see a fringe playoff team (the Charlotte Hornets would make sense for instance) taking a shot on him and hoping he blossoms into a star.
2.) I still see WKU as a top three team in Conference USA this season and winning about 20 games. My big concern with the roster now is frontcourt depth. Behind Justin Johnson and Dwight Coleby, there is only one big man on the roster (Moustapha Diagne) and he still hasn’t been cleared by the NCAA. Stansbury will have to get creative with small lineups, especially if Diagne is ineligible. However, that backcourt is super talented, and the Hilltoppers certainly have the pieces to be very dangerous this season.
RS: 1.) I think Robinson definitely falls out of the lottery, simply because there will be more proven players at his position available (DeAndre Ayton, Mohammad Bamba, Wendell Carter to name a few). He probably stays in the first round off potential alone. I wouldn’t be surprised if a playoff team that isn’t looking for a franchise-changer drafts him and hopes for the best somewhere in the 20s.
2.) As for Western Kentucky, I no longer think they’re the team to beat in CUSA, but they are certainly a top-three team with a shot at making a run in the conference tournament. They still bring in an excellent recruiting class and a couple high-major grad transfers. I say they play in the postseason — just don’t ask me where.
I would like to thank Tony, Kevin and Russell, again for taking time to answer my questions. To hear more about what each has to say, be sure to give them each a follow on Twitter:
Tony — @CollegeHoopNews
Kevin — @CBB_Central
Russell — @Russ_Steinberg