Red Towel Roundtable: What Could Cause WKU's Football Season to Derail?
On paper, a lot should go right for WKU this year. But what are the things that absolutely cannot go wrong or a potential dream season could turn into a nightmare?
Expectations are, rightly, sky high for the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ahead of the 2023 football season, with the Tops entering the year as unanimous favorites to win the conference and boast a roster heavily featured on pre-season All-Conference teams.
On paper, 2023 should be a special year on the Hill, with a talented roster and a forgiving schedule that could see the Tops fighting for a spot in the Top 25 by the end of the season.
But, there’s a reason the games are played, and things will go wrong: Poor game planning, injuries and unexpected upstart teams are just some of the potential threats in the way from what we expect and what could become reality for the Hilltoppers this year.
Before the full swing of fall camp rolls around, let’s take stock of what of some of those worst-case scenarios for WKU this coming season could be and what could take the Tops from on-paper world beaters to potentially fighting to tread water. The Towel Rack’s contributors weigh in on what, they say, would be the most detrimental thing to WKU’s shot at a special season this year.
Before we get started, grab the closest rabbit’s foot, knock on some wood and don’t step on any cracks today. Just to be safe.
Alright, here we go.
Fletcher Keel - Failure To Play For 60 Minutes in Competitive Games
Of WKU’s five losses last year, two stick out as the most painful: At Indiana and against North Texas.
Both loses have something in common, too: The Tops failed to put together a full, competitive 60 minutes, and it cost them dearly.
Against IU, it was watching the Tops inability to hold a fourth quarter lead and, ultimately, seeing the program’s first ever win over a Big Ten side slip through their fingers. Versus UNT, it was a poor transition to end the third quarter and begin the fourth that saw a close Mean Green lead turn into a blowout victory, a result that ended up being the difference in WKU missing out on a second-straight CUSA title game appearance.
Other loses last year were hard fought for four quarters, the Tops just couldn’t claim to be the better team (Troy and UTSA instantly come to mind) but the IU and UNT loses felt like the result could have been different if a full 60 minute effort was given.
It’s tough to forecast at the outset of the season, but there’s going to be at least one - maybe even two or three - CUSA games that will feel closer than they should. If a team as talented as we feel WKU will be this year can keep focus and turn in 60 solid minutes week in and week out, there should be no problems. But, if focus is lost for even a quarter, dropping a game to a La Tech, Liberty or even Sam Houston St. could leave a bad taste in our mouths for years to come and leave us all asking and wondering what could have been.
Jared Rosdeutscher - The O-Line Fails to Gel Together
For me, what makes or breaks this season for the Tops lies solely on the offensive line. Last year they did a pretty amazing job protecting Austin Reed and giving him time but losing Gunner Britton and Rusty Staats to P5 programs means that some new players will have to step up and fill their critical roles up front. I don’t expect them to be perfect every game but when you have an elite level quarterback such as Reed, protecting him and giving him time is the most important thing for this offense to me.
If the offensive line doesn’t gel and struggles, it could definitely cost the Tops a few games and the less that Reed gets hit, the better for everyone.
Matt McCay - The Hilltoppers’ Depth Begins to Wear Thin
As I was thinking about what will most likely derail WKU’s season, I thought about injuries. I thought about tight end. I thought about simply saying “Liberty”. I’m sure somebody is going to somehow tie Conference USA into the issue. I look at WKU’s roster. Do they have the depth to make it a whole season without a couple of losses due to attrition? WKU has a Preseason C-USA All-Conference selection at nearly every position group: Special teams, linebacker, defensive back, quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and offensive line.
Even Dalvin Smith is listed as a solid tight end by Athlon Sports, who selected 17 WKU positions (WRs Malachi Corley and Michael Mathison were selected a second time for their return skills) to be no worse than fourth-team All-CUSA. Other publications have selected around that number or so. WKU is front-loaded…but are they back-loaded?
What we do not know about this team (and most teams don’t until they get into it) is who else steps up and is an everyday starter? Who else comes in and fills out the depth chart? Can WKU produce 1,500 yards rushing from running backs alone? Is the entire wide receiver/tight end core good, or is it just Corley, Mathison, and maybe Smith? Can the tight ends block? Offensive line: Are there more than a couple of viable backups for the entire O-Line? How good are they? Last season, WKU was incredibly fortunate not to have a single injury to the starting O-Line or the Tops could have been a disaster up front. How good is special teams as a result of filtering more guys from that unit onto the offense and defense? Defensive line is another spot where you must have production. I personally believe WKU probably has most of its answers, but in football, if you have a gaping hole somewhere, sometimes it doesn’t matter how good the other players are. You will suffer from that weakness at some point.
Alex Sherfield - WKU Plays Down to Their Opponents
A necessary fear of mine for the 2023 season being derailed would have to be the act of “playing down” to opponents.
As we all know, Conference USA has become a very unproven conference after FBS transitions & realignments. The Hilltoppers have received numerous preseason accolades & are picked to win the CUSA title. It’s not going to be that easy. The Tops open up non-conference play with South Florida & Houston Christian amid a grudge match with Troy & running the gauntlet with national power Ohio State.
While I can see WKU being, at least, over .500 in non-conference play, the CUSA battles are slowly picking up some steam for the avid Group 5 connoisseurs. MTSU, Louisiana Tech, FIU & UTEP should draw some much-needed familiar competition. The Blue Raiders still find ways to have postseason appearances and shouldn’t be ruled for a chance to play spoiler in CUSA play.
Liberty also has the potential to be a thorn in WKU’s side, after a splash hiring with Jamey Chadwell, who was at the helm of a surging Coastal Carolina program. That, plus a huge returning starting lineup should be enough to shake up the conference title race.
Jacksonville State, New Mexico State, & Sam Houston bring teams of recent Independent/FCS success to the schedule but show a little more promise of causing some pretty challenging days for the Tops.
Thankfully, have a high-powered offense and a strong retooled defense should take care of business this season. However, I don’t want to be unsure of how things will go as now all eyes are on us at the beginning of a long, lingering process of the “new” CUSA.
Jake Gary - Reed, Corley Go Down With Injury
In my opinion, the biggest derailment would come from a major injury to one of the Hilltoppers’ two offensive stars.
Losing Austin Reed would be devastating, especially with all the hype surrounding him after his performance at the Manning camp. The fans love him, the team loves him and it would be deflating for the atmosphere and the team. Even if a backup QB were able to step up, it would most likely take time to get them the experience to get comfortable.
Malachi Corley going down with injury would have the same effect. He is going to play on Sundays and I hope the Patriots use a draft pick on him. A guy like that being gone would certainly make a few players have to step up to fill in his shoes and production, including those in the backfield. This offense will be best when slinging the ball, and having the number one WR out there catching passes will be key.
Now that I’ve given my cop-out answer, I’ll talk about another possible scenario.
Losing to USF in the opener.
I know its the first game of the season, but WKU is favored by 13.5 points and USF was absolutely terrible last year, surrendering high-flying41.5 points per game. If WKU is going to be the high flying offensive team we all expect them to be, they have to come out and hang points on USF. A loss to them in the opener would be nothing short of a disaster and would kill a lot of confidence within this team, especially since it means a likely 1-2 start with Ohio State lingering in Week 3.
If WKU shows weakness in the first game, and some of these hungry newcomers in CUSA will want to jump all over them, which can’t happen if WKU has hopes of a championship season.
Scoring anything under 30 points on USF would be really worrying for me.
Devin Stewart - Austin Reed Spends Time Off the Field Due to Injury
CUSA has a lot of new faces coming this year, and sadly WKU has become the “old man” in the conference. A lot of WKUs old rivals have left for greener pastures while the Tops sit in the same old paddock.
With that, WKU has some amazing opportunities to dominate CUSA. Reed’s return spells success this season, and it could be championship-level success.
The only thing stopping WKU would be WKU themselves, in the form of injuries.
Injuries happen to every team, but WKU needs to keep Reed from being on that list. The Tops could have injuries anywhere else, but not with him.
Reed has developed nicely over the past year and has the potential to top Bailey Zappe with TDs and passing yards. But not if he’s on the IR.
So how does WKU protect him; when they’re leading by 45 points to a no-name team, pull him. Let the second-string QB get some reps. If the no-name team gets back within a few scores put him back in, but don’t risk his health for a major blowout.
I don’t see Tyson Helton risking his health, but stranger things have happened.
This season has got me so excited to watch the Tops, just with the potential to see some amazing football. Let’s hope it lives up to the hype.
What say you? What do you think is the biggest speed bump that could pop up and keep WKU from a special season?