Roundtable Discussion: How Do You Currently Feel About WKU’s 2024 Championship Chances?
We’re asking our writers, “Based on right now in this moment, how do you feel about WKU’s regular season chances, as well as WKU’s chances in the CUSA Tourney in Huntsville?”
Ok we’ve finally got some info, we’re starting to see how the rotation may function in crunch time, and we’ve seen a sample against CUSA.
WKU Basketball is maybe about where most people may have figured: .500 in CUSA and taking advantage of a weak non-conference, sitting at 14-6 overall.
So a bye week (or a full week off, I guess) feels like a good time to ask our staff to put it in perspective.
We’re asking our writers, “Based on right now in this moment, how do you feel about WKU’s regular season chances, as well as WKU’s chances in the CUSA Tourney in Huntsville?”
Matt McCay
Jalen Jackson’s injury really takes the wind out of the sails in terms of the upward possibilities of this season. If WKU can get Khristian Lander back from concussion and back to his normal ten points and point guard duties, Western could be really good. If he’s not, we’ve seen the up-and-down nature of the Tops without one or both of their point guards.
And Western has been good! However, WKU is not favored to win a majority of its remaining games. ESPN’s BPI is by no means perfect, but it’s usually a pretty good indicator of tendencies. According to that metric, WKU should go 5-5 the rest of the season, and one of those five predicted wins is a 53% chance to win at MTSU in late February.
All of that is window dressing. It doesn’t mean anything! WKU could easily clean itself up and be dominant in Conference USA. Western has been turning it over nearly 20 times per game in conference play. Fix that by five and WKU would definitely be 5-1 or so instead of 3-3. If a guy like Dontaie Allen (30 points vs FIU) could become a guaranteed double digit scorer, this team gets another gear. If WKU can shore up its defense to keep opponents from scoring 75 or more, once again, the Tops would have a great chance of separating themselves in CUSA.
To answer the question, I think WKU will probably not win the CUSA regular season title, but I do believe they will finish second behind La Tech. I believe Sam Houston comes back to Earth, and WKU ends up the best of the rest. WKU is going to most likely need a sweep of La Tech, and that is incredibly difficult given La Tech almost never loses at home.
As far as CUSA Tournament, I’m going to Huntsville because I believe in a combination of Steve Lutz and this team and the Lady Tops. I believe at least one Western team, if not two, will participate in the championship game. You know what? I’ll go ahead and say it: I think if Western can get to that championship game, they’re going to win it. Keep in mind they’ve lost three in a row, so the odds have to be at least slightly more in WKU’s favor just because of that. I’ll call it. Tops win CUSA in March. Get your tickets for Huntsville!
Devin Stewart
My favorite movie quote comes from a classic 90s film, Dumb and Dumber, “What’s my chances? Like 1 in a 100; 1 in a 1000?”
“More like 1 in a million…”
“So you’re telling me there’s a chance…”
This is my mindset for WKU Basketball: Given a two game hole, the chances of WKU winning a regular season championship are super slim. But a late season push that extends into CUSA Tourney? Very possible. This team has had some super highs, and some abysmal lows.
But if you’re a Hilltopper fan, you’re not surprised. Only super ridiculous fans expect a regular season championship especially with a new coach. Not knocking Coach Lutz, but it’s a big ask to do in your first year.
So honestly, if WKU was knocking on the door or winning a championship either regular season or tournament, I’m ecstatic!
The icing on the cake for this season would be headed to the Big Dance. If he pulled that off, my campaign for Coach Lutz to get a statue by Diddle would begin.
Alex Sherfield
Ever since the start of the season in November, the Tops have gradually forced us to raise our expectations for 2023-2024. Right now, they’re among the top three teams in the conference with few more games left in league play. I’m more confident in this current squad than others in recent years, hoping they’re going to break the NCAA Tournament drought and bring a CUSA title back to Diddle Arena in March.
The mixture of different players and their styles makes this squad a challenge for whoever they’re playing and should leave the most hardcore of WKU supporters very pleased and excited for what’s to come over the next few weeks. However, I do want to see more improvements on getting hard fought victories on the road on top of keeping our home game winning streak alive. It’s a great feeling for WKU Basketball fans right now as the Steve Lutz era is off to an impressive start, hopefully keeping up the pace to keep the Tops in the conversation for one of the best mid-major programs in the country.
Jacob Gary
I think the chances of a regular season championship is very high for the Tops. We have good scorers, and can run it up on any given night. Their offensive strength is easily good enough to run to the number one seed in Conference USA by the time the season ends.
That being said, tournament play makes me nervous because the biggest weakness of this Tops team is turnovers. Yes, we can score and play with anyone on any given night, but we can also turn the ball over and lose to anyone on any given night.
Overall, the chances of both are fairly high. Its clear we are one of the better teams in conference usa at this point. Just have to cut back on turnovers, and if they do, its going to be a good postseason.
Casey Richards
Conference USA Men’s Basketball, despite low expectations and a poor reputation, is very tough, especially on the road. It’s far more competitive than anyone expected and the standings are changing drastically every week. WKU, for example, has gone from first place, down to seventh place, and now back up to tied for third place, all in the span of four weeks. There doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut favorite to win the conference, by any means. However, I think that Western has a good chance, along with a few other teams, to do so.
If WKU is going to win a regular season championship, it’s going to take some road wins, which has proven to be extremely difficult to do. After Western’s trip out West, it’s kind of hard to know what to think about this team. We had the New Mexico State game in the bag but couldn’t close it out, and then turn around to play UTEP and allow 93 points, which isn’t going to win you a lot of games on the road. Granted, we didn’t have Khristian Lander, and without Lander we lack perimeter defense, overall quickness, and maybe the most important of them all, given the number of turnovers WKU has had in these past few games, we lack a secondary ball handler. I’m not saying we would’ve won that UTEP game, but I think it would’ve been a better overall performance if Lander was available. Coming up, however, Western has two big home games against Sam Houston and the blue team. Two wins there and we could regain our confidence and possibly go win some games on the road.
Another thing to add about our conference season so far is that losing Jalen Jackson really hurt this team more than anyone could’ve expected. You can’t help but wonder what our record would be if he hadn’t gotten hurt again. I would say that he was our best overall point guard and the team as a whole had a lot more juice and flow when he was out on the court. He provided so much energy on both sides of the floor. Now that he’s out for the season, we’re down to two “point guards” in Don McHenry and Khristian Lander, who are both really good and having great seasons. With that being said, you can’t play the way you might want to play when you have Jalen Jackson on the bench. Factors that didn’t matter as much when Jalen was healthy matter significantly more now. For example, if Don McHenry gets two early fouls in the first half, Lander is going to have to play the remainder of the half with likely no breaks.
Although we aren’t as deep in the point guard position as we might want to be, we do still have a good, deep roster. Tyrone Marshall has had a great season so far and continues to impress me every single game. Both of our big men, Babacar Faye and Rodney Howard, have been dominant so far throughout conference play and show no signs of slowing down. Brandon Newman has slowly turned into what we hoped he would be coming into the season and is playing phenomenally on both ends of the court. Dontaie Allen has had a slower season than many have expected but seems to be turning it around, based on his career high 30-point outing against FIU. Enoch Kalambay has provided a great spark off of the bench and is a very underrated player when you look at this roster. Another great spark, who is finally getting his chance to shine, is Teagan Moore. Teagan has shown great promise in every game that he’s played in this season and just seems like he belongs out there. He is a do-it-all type of player and I am very excited to see how he develops throughout this year and hopefully many years to come.
To finally answer the question, I believe that there are four or five teams, WKU included, that all have a good chance to win the regular season championship. Although, I’m not real sure it matters who wins the regular season because one thing is for sure and that is that the Conference USA Tournament is going to be, in short, wild. This conference is full of capable teams that can turn it on and have a heck of a game any given night. I don’t think anyone would’ve expected Sam Houston to be having the season they are having so far in their first year in the conference. I also think that everyone thought Jacksonville State was a pushover team, which they have proven to be better than expected. There are so many teams on or around the same level in this conference and I’m just glad I’m not a betting man because I would have no clue who to place my bet on.
Obviously, I will always root for the Tops, and I believe that we have the team and coaches to be able to get a regular season championship, and a trip to the NCAA tournament. If everyone can stay healthy, I like our chances to be in it at the very end. Coach Lutz has only been a head coach for two seasons prior to coming to Western and he has won two conference tournament titles. He knows how to win those big games and I believe that he can do it again. I would definitely suggest getting your tickets for Huntsville because this CUSA tournament is going to be something you do not want to miss live.
Summary
Clearly we all feel decent about the prospects of a championship of one type or another for WKU immediately, and that’s what I think should be the main takeaway: Whatever expectations were preseason, overall expectations have risen on this Hilltopper team.
Steve Lutz has done a marvelous job putting together this roster. Western still has (fixable for the most part) issues, so the Tops can actually get better than their current level compared to the rest of the league. I think we could agree Western has higher potential than most league members, but we also still know the Tops could be about as good as they are now and still be in contention.