Roundtable: UTEP Predictions, Forecasting CUSA
FB: We ask our staff to give us a prediction for the game vs. UTEP, but we also ask them to give us a way-too-early CUSA prediction.
With a week off and a midweek game, Western Kentucky Football (3-2, 1-0 CUSA) has had an opportunity to regroup without having too much time off to get rusty.
A much needed breather after five Saturday games in a row, WKU draws the UTEP Miners (0-5, 0-2 CUSA). Two teams with two different trajectories, WKU arrives to its sixth game of the season slightly ahead of schedule, having a quality win, two quality losses, and no blemish on its CUSA resume thus far. UTEP is a team that some picked as a dark horse candidate for a CUSA title, and now, they will have to beat either WKU or Tennessee and win all of their other games to even be bowl eligible. WKU, meanwhile, is looking like the best team in Conference USA, or at least they look just as good as Liberty and Sam Houston State and definitively better than everyone else.
All of that remains to be seen, obviously. No team is officially eliminated from contention for one of the two spots in the Conference USA Championship Game in December. Both teams will be desperate for this win. Early conference losses can be devastating, and a UTEP loss basically eliminates the possibility of a successful season.
And UTEP has plenty to concern WKU. For an 0-5 team, UTEP’s defense is good enough to create a headache. UTEP’s pass defense gives up less than 200 yards per game. Interestingly enough, WKU wants to air the ball out and throw it all over the field.
Despite the prettier numbers on one side and the uglier on the other side, either team could pull this one out.
Predicting UTEP and WKU’s CUSA Finish
Matt McCay (4-1)
UTEP is an interesting opponent. Yes, they look like a pushover if you look at records. They were expected to be better. They’ve lost to an FCS. Only a couple games did they really seem like they had a chance. That’s all true. But they also have had their chances. If they were 2-3, would you not look at them as a tougher opponent? Of course you would. They are a couple of touchdowns away from a 2-3 record. The ball bounces a different way and they are a respectable team with a completely different outlook. I pray that the Tops are not piddling around this week. It better be serious business, or they could get slapped around themselves.
I do think WKU has the upper hand, and I think as long as WKU can pass the ball, they should be fine. UTEP seems to stop the pass and allow the run. With WKU’s offense being the “Air Raid”, obviously the pretense of the entire offense is to be able to pass and run it when you have to. Against UTEP, that could be dangerous, but if you can overcome one huge obstacle, it’s really difficult to see WKU losing. I think WKU’s passing offense is too good to be completely shut down by a middling CUSA opponent. UTEP’s offense will not be able to keep up, and as long as Western has any kind of decent to slightly below average day offensively, they will be fine.
Give me WKU 48-UTEP 14.
As far as predicting Conference USA, I honestly feel way better than I did heading into the season. I predicted Liberty would be clearly better. They’re not. I predicted Jax State would be better. They’re not. I thought UTEP or MTSU or NMSU or somebody else would look like a fourth or fifth option that could possibly pull out some wins. The only teams that have risen to or above expectation and maintained it thus far in CUSA are WKU and Sam Houston State. Both look like legitimate football teams that could win ten regular season games. Liberty is obviously still really good, even if they look more human than normal. They also play a hideously poor schedule, so they could easily go undefeated (which will be 11-0 because of the App State game being canceled). They just look a little more human.
All of that to say…and I would not have predicted this before the season…but I think this is the year. You know what? I’m doing it. Tops by 90, baby. This team is too good. They’ve proven their quality defensively. They can run the ball with depth. They can pass. The special teams unit is good enough. Where’s the hole? I don’t see a huge one. Sure, the third down defense must improve. Sure, Caden Veltkamp needs to clean it up quickly. Sure, play calling and coaching needs to sharpen. The mediocrity vibes must hit the road. But if they can overcome a couple of things, the potential is there.
I’m calling it. I absolutely see a world with two really tough road games (SHSU, Liberty) that the Tops drop one or even two. But I don’t care. It’s time to set the standard. This team has no business losing another game, unless it’s to Liberty at Liberty. I say the Tops go undefeated in Conference USA, host in Bowling Green, and beat Sam Houston in the championship game.
Fletcher Keel (1-0)
Alex Sherfield (5-0)
The Miners have not had a good start to 2024 at all. It’ll be all the motivation for them not to leave Bowling Green still winless on Thursday night. However, I could see this being a *true* offensive firework showcase for the Hilltoppers. Defensively, I could see them bait quite a few turnovers to give the offense some much needed cushion to control the game.
Give me WKU 48, UTEP 17.
The next seven conference games are arguably the most comfortable stretch that WKU will have this season. While their matchups with Liberty & Sam Houston (not to be taken lightly either) pose some higher risks, it looks like its smooth sailing for the other five opponents. As we all have figured, it would be a toss-up between us & Liberty on who would take the CUSA crown.
Jake Gary (5-0)
WKU 38-UTEP 12
Tops are coming off a bye week after blowing a game they should have vs. Boston College. But that’s ok. Bill O’Brien has really turned BC’s program around and made it respectable this year. It’s a good loss, even if the way it happened was very painful. Anyway, UTEP is 0-5 and only one game was within single digits. Perfect game for the Tops to get a tune up, refocus, and get back in the win column. Only way I see Tops losing this one is if they start to look ahead to Sam Houston before the UTEP game even starts.
CUSA Prediction
The Tops are hard to place this year. Without a blown lost to Boston College, the Tops would have been undefeated vs. any team not named Alabama and that would have been very impressive. (Even still), a win vs. Toledo was still good, and they took care of business against pitiful MTSU and FCS EKU. Now it is pretty obvious that the only two teams standing in the Tops’ way are Sam Houston and Liberty.
Liberty is currently undefeated but they’ve had an absolute cake walk so far, and will continue to have a cake walk until they play their final two games of the season. Seriously, listen to this—the record of each of Liberty’s next five games—2-3, 0-5, 2-3, 1-4, 1-5. Pitiful, really. I’d take the Tops to be their wake up call if they into the game with WKU undefeated.
Sam Houston has played some good football this year, but they got blown out by UCF and other than that, their only real competition has been Texas State (W 30-29). But overall, they are 5-1 and you have to respect that.
Both games (SHSU and LU) are on the road for the Tops. I think if the Tops want to make it in to the Conference USA Championship Game, they have to beat one of those two teams on the road. If they beat both, they’re in the championship vs the winner of the Sam Houston vs. Liberty matchup. And just cause I like the narrative of “win and you’re in” for that game (the final regular season game for both), I’ll say that’ll happen and the Tops make the Conference USA Championship Game-and their opponent will be decided during the last game.
And of course, if we’ve already beaten them both once…the Tops could definitely do it again. GO TOPS!
Devin Stewart (4-0)
WKU is going to beat UTEP 42-14
UTEP is a team that has struggled, so that makes them dangerous. They’re now a team that has nothing to lose. I do go into more detail on the RedOUT podcast episode this week, but when you have nothing to lose, then you can pull out all the stops and not hold back.
WKU in CUSA is a hard forecast, but like most weathermen, I can make a guess.
My thoughts when it comes to CUSA are there will be three main stand alone teams to finish the season strong. Liberty, WKU, and Sam Houston. My prediction is that each of these teams will lose to one or the other. No clear winner. All three go 1-1 against each other.
Liberty isn’t a “superman” that’s unbeatable. Sam Houston isn’t anything to scoff at, and WKU has all the pieces to punch up to beat both teams. But can WKU overcome the “don’t lose” mentality?
Caden has a lot of upside potential. Our defense has some amazing moments. If we could piece together EKU, MTSU, Toledo, and the first half of Boston College, we could beat any opponent on our schedule. But if we play like we did against Bama, (Shoutout Vandy) or the second half against Boston College then the best we can do is 3rd and a “Tubby Smith/Rick Stansbury era” of WKU football will continue with no CUSA Championship in sight.
David McCay (4-1)
If WKU can avoid stupid penalties, sacks, and turnovers, this game should be a Thursday prime time victory. UTEP is weak statistically. They turn the ball over, have too many penalties, and give up too many sacks causing their scoring to be too low to be successful.
Western must exploit UTEP’s weaknesses, if so I see a score like WKU 42-UTEP 10.
For Conference USA, I will stick with my predictions and say that WKU drops one game, Liberty or Sam Houston, but still gets the #1 seed because both of these schools lose 2. This is all contingent on WKU’s offense exploiting CUSA teams’ defensive weaknesses, and Western’s defense holding big running attacks in check.
Pending injuries like 2023 or more natural disasters, I see Western being the champion this season.
Bret Combest (3-0)
Conclusion: WKU Should Make an Example of UTEP
Although a few of us may caution us from being completely flippant about UTEP, ultimately, the expectation is to make a statement to the rest of Conference USA. I think every WKU fan would like to see WKU absolutely crush UTEP. If Sam Houston beat UTEP by 20, beat them by 40, Tops.
And there is merit to the possibility that UTEP could keep this close. As Matt said, for example, UTEP can play decently against the pass. Well, there’s an avenue if they can replicate that against WKU, because WKU will probably not turn around and rush for 200 yards. The Tops will need the passing game.
As David said, UTEP turns the ball over and gives up TFLs. Ok. Well, what if UTEP finds a way to protect the football and protect the backfield? That immediately gives them more of a chance.
We’ll see.
But the Tops should absolutely slay the Miners. Right? Ultimately, an 0-5 team with two losses already in CUSA. They did lose to UTEP and Sam Houston, who seem the class of the league. Nonetheless, they weren’t competitive in either.
WKU should take care of business.
We’ll see, though. UTEP will be desperate, will be angry, and they are dangerous enough that WKU can’t play with their food.
WKU plays the Miners on ESPNU at 7 PM on Thursday night. If you can’t make it to see Big Red’s Eyes on the helmets in person, make sure you tune in on the tube!
It’s now time for the meat of Conference USA season in football, basketball news is springing up, Volleyball and Soccer are deep in CUSA play and prepping for the postseason, and the Topper calendar is in full swing. Don’t you want to be connected with the only WKU outlet that provides real, unbiased perspective with live tweeting, breaking news, a podcast, and full-length articles? No one else does exactly what we do, and it’s all for FREE! There’s no charge for the one stop shop that is The Towel Rack!
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GO TOPS!!!!