CUSA Hoops: State of Conference USA-February 1
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. We’re now looking at NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus. For a more detailed analysis on NCAA Tournament chances, see our recent Bracketology articles.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball in 2016–17. The women’s side was 16th. With nearly 2/3 of the season complete, Conference USA stands 15th and 18th of 32 in men’s and women’s basketball, respectively.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
For more information on Conference USA men’s basketball tournament resumes, check out our Bracketology reports.
Men’s Basketball
In a week of mostly straightforward match-ups, WKU and UAB managed to grab the spotlight this past week. In the only marquee match-up, WKU battled Marshall in a thriller in Bowling Green. Both teams played well, with the Hilltoppers eventually vanquishing the Herd on a 15–0 run at the end of the game to complete the season sweep, 85–74.
In a shocker, UAB dropped a double-digit loss to UTSA at home. UAB has now lost three of four and finds itself on the very outside of the conference favorites.
La Tech looked an early season dark horse, but started conference play horribly. The Bulldogs have since won three in a row, placing themselves back in the conference conversation.
Although playing inferior competition this past weekend, MTSU still looks to be the class of the league at this point. However, WKU and ODU may have something to say about that.
Back Even (Ish)
Make no mistake. MTSU (16–5, 8–1 C-USA, RPI: 25, BPI: 44, SOS: 56, NR/RV) is still the slight favorite. Here they are, once again standing with a decent to very good tournament resume, leading Conference USA halfway through the season. Placing Middle with WKU is not a slight on the Blue Raiders, but really basically a statement that WKU has made it through a brutal month of C-USA basketball with one loss. Middle has more serious tests on the immediate horizon.
MTSU is at ODU tonight. That will be a heck of an intriguing match-up. Early lines indicate ODU as a slight favorite on their home court. Make it through this game and their game against Charlotte Saturday and they will once again have the leg up on WKU. Several outlets that forecast NCAA Tournament selection have MTSU as making the tournament somewhere between a 10 and a 12. The vast majority have MTSU listed in the field.
WKU (15–6, 7–1 C-USA, RPI: 40, BPI: 56, SOS: 37) had a really nice win at home against a Marshall team that played well and with purpose Saturday. WKU still found a way, albeit through a Diddle Arena crowd that stirred the Toppers up into a 15–0 frenzy at the end of the game to win by 11. WKU is a co-favorite because of the eye test, and also because the Toppers now have a favorable schedule until they complete their round-robin of conference favorites (vs. ODU, at MTSU, at UAB) at the end of the year. Of WKU’s next seven opponents, only one has an overall winning record (North Texas). The Toppers will be favored heavily in each of their next seven games.
WKU is currently listed on a majority of bracketology projections. However, at the current moment, WKU is considered to be in between the “First Four Out” and “Next Four Out” on most sites.
Extra Favorite
It is Old Dominion’s (16–4, 7–1 C-USA, RPI: 89, BPI: 69, SOS: 265) turn to face the toughest test in Conference USA this week. Fortunately for the Monarchs, ODU could make serious hay if they simply protect their home court this week against two of C-USA’s best, MTSU and UAB. With tiebreakers, ODU could effectively stand two games ahead of everyone except WKU in the standings. If ODU loses, MTSU takes control with its tie-breaking win over WKU.
Hanging on by a thread
Marshall (14–7, 5–3 C-USA, RPI: 96, BPI: 149, SOS: 138) did play a good game against WKU, but ultimately getting swept by the Tops is really going to make it difficult to finish in first. Two games behind WKU and ODU (and a tiebreak) and two behind Middle just spells doom for the Herd. Odds are one of those three should finish with three losses or less. However, they have plenty to play for. They should certainly be considered as the favorite to take the coveted fourth seed and first round bye in the C-USA Tournament at this point. Just like WKU, Marshall has an easy schedule for the next seven games. These next seven should allow Marshall to solidify itself in the standings. Will the Herd do it, though?
UAB (14–8, 5–4 C-USA, RPI: 177, BPI: 104, SOS: 210) …umm what happened against UTSA? First UAB only wins by seven at home against UTEP and then gets dominated by UTSA. UAB better get it together, because they have to sweep ODU and Charlotte to stay in the race at the top. It is unlikely La Tech, WKU, Marshall, and North Texas will all lose this week against weak opponents. Judging by their recent play, UAB is likely to slip further down the standings this week.
La Tech (13–9, 4–5 C-USA, RPI: 154, BPI: 126, SOS: 136) has resurrected itself. Perhaps facing some weaker teams has awoken the confidence and chemistry, because La Tech looked momentarily discombobulated after having one of their leading scorers leave the program. However, La Tech has now jumped from 1–5 to 4–5 and is now 1.5 games out of fourth place. If I were you, I’d buy La Tech stock right now. They’re getting it together and have looked impressive the past few weeks.
Remarkably, North Texas (12–10, 5–4 C-USA, RPI: 204, BPI: 215, SOS: 245) is still yet to finish a Conference USA game with a scoring margin larger than seven points. UNT finds itself in battles each week, regardless of competition. It remains to be seen whether this is a talented team that plays down to the level of its opponent or a gritty team that finds a way to win close games they shouldn’t.
Mathematically in it
Southern Miss (11–11, 4–5 C-USA, RPI: 206, BPI: 258, SOS: 153) is still within a few games of contention, so for now, the Eagles have a chance. With Florida schools on the schedule, somebody is going to the cellar between La Tech, Southern Miss, FAU, and FIU.
FAU (10–11, 4–5 C-USA, RPI: 222, BPI: 226, SOS: 202) needs to do well this week. Facing a surging La Tech and a decent USM team, the Owls better try to sweep to keep themselves in the top half of the standings. Otherwise, they could be in serious trouble.
UTSA (11–11, 4–5 C-USA, RPI: 238, BPI: 204, SOS: 232) shocked C-USA by dominating UAB at home. That was a really impressive victory that showed their prowess on certain nights. However, UTSA must deal with Marshall and WKU this week. A split would be huge for the Roadrunners.
Out of It
FIU (9–13, 3–6 C-USA, RPI: 311, BPI: 293, SOS: 285) struggled this past week, losing to a bad Rice team and losing a heartbreaker at North Texas. FIU should hope for a split between Southern Miss and La Tech this week.
UTEP (7–14, 2–7 C-USA, RPI: 305, BPI: 233, SOS: 217) is facing a tough week. If they can stick within ten points against WKU or Marshall, they should get half a win’s credit for that accomplishment. UTEP has shown life on its home court this season, but has shown little life since conference play began.
Rice (5–17, 2–7 C-USA, RPI: 329, BPI: 325, SOS: 226) had a good week. The Owls took down FIU and lost on a 30 foot heave against FAU. That’s a good week for a team that’s struggled for hope all year.
Charlotte (5–14, 1–7 C-USA, RPI: 310, BPI: 297, SOS: 250) has been a disaster all season. UAB and Middle should not help build their confidence. However, the 49ers gave WKU some trouble at home. Maybe they can keep it interesting.
Overall State of C-USA Men’s Basketball: The Three Amigos
Go figure that the week most unlikely to produce upheaval was the week a clear race was established. MTSU, WKU, and ODU now stand at the top two games ahead of everyone else with most tiebreakers, each for different reasons. MTSU is the champion, WKU is the upstart with great talent and coaching, and ODU is a great defensive team with a lenient schedule and a great home court advantage.
All but three of the rest of the teams in the conference are within 2.5 games of each other. The three at the pinnacle seem to be vying for the top spot, but the middle of the pack is now completely wide open, and the all-important first round bye could realistically be given to any four of the top 11 teams in the conference at this point.
In addition, WKU and MTSU are still in the running for at-large bids. Both programs boast healthy resumes and great strengths of schedule. Knowing what we know, both teams could possibly afford one more regular season loss to a good conference team and still keep hope of options on Selection Sunday. Winning out could guarantee selection.
Women’s Basketball
Favorites
WKU (16–5, 7–1 C-USA, RPI: 43, SOS: 102) bounced back from disappointment with excellent double digit road wins at North Texas and at La Tech. La Tech now has only two losses on the year at home, and WKU led wire to wire.
UAB (17–3, 6–1 C-USA, RPI: 83, SOS: 237) was a mirror image of the Lady Toppers this past week, taking advantage of opportunities and winning convincingly on the road after bitter disappointment. The Blazers face the likes of UTEP and La Tech this week. Two road wins would be incredibly impressive.
Rice (16–3, 6–1 C-USA, RPI: 115, SOS: 337) was less impressive, especially offensively this week. However, they won in convincing fashion, so props to the Owls for taking care of business.
Dark Horses
FAU (10–8, 4–3 C-USA, RPI: 184, SOS: 199) faces WKU this week, so if they can’t pull it off against WKU with other conference teams playing better, they’re stepping away from the top and trending towards the bottom.
UTEP (13–7, 4–3 C-USA, RPI: 117, SOS: 190) may need another week or two before their quality becomes obvious. However, UTEP battles UAB this week. Obviously beating the top of the conference would help their season tremendously.
Middle Tennessee (13–8, 5–3 C-USA, RPI: 120, SOS: 175) is really considered a dark horse just out of respect. MTSU has not looked above average this season. However, all of C-USA knows a healthy MTSU could beat anyone in the country. Therefore, if Middle can get healthy or simply find some offense, they could win the conference. Middle faces La Tech this week, a chance to prove themselves against a good opponent.
Unknown
Southern Miss (12–8, 4–3 C-USA, RPI: 168, SOS: 202) has played decent basketball of late. Undersized, USM is always well-coached and gives itself a chance night in and night out.
La Tech (13–8, 4–4 C-USA, RPI: 211, SOS: 296) is still a bit of a mystery. They lost to WKU, but fought to slice the Lady Topper lead before losing by double digits. Several of these decent teams are finally starting to face each other. La Tech will face difficult competition in the coming weeks.
Out
Marshall (7–13, 1–6 C-USA, RPI: 324, SOS: 307) Marshall finally stole a victory against a middle-of-the-pack team. They still have plenty of work to do before they are anything but a doormat.
UTSA (3–17, 1–7 C-USA, RPI: 315, SOS: 184) only has one win, and that was against ODU.
Old Dominion (4–18, 2–6 C-USA, RPI: 320, SOS: 198) was decent this week against pretty good teams, but ultimately struggled to score the basketball.
At 2–4, North Texas (11–9, 2–6 C-USA, RPI: 234, SOS: 230) did what I said they should do against WKU and UTEP. Now standing at 2–6, is UNT really good enough to rattle off several wins in a row to get them back in the race? Unlikely.
Charlotte (7–13, 3–4 C-USA, RPI: 172, SOS: 89) Charlotte is a dangerous team, but it is becoming significantly more clear that Charlotte is at best a spoiler, at worst a below average team.
FIU (6–14, 3–4 C-USA, RPI: 284, SOS: 164) looked decent against UAB, but lost at previously undefeated Marshall. Ouch.
State of C-USA Women’s Basketball: Triplets
Much like the men’s side, a three team race is developing at the top, and a bottleneck is forming in the middle of the standings. This will make for an interesting couple of races. However, unlike the men, who seem to have extremely strong squads near the top of the standings, each of the teams in C-USA women’s basketball have some significant flaws.
In addition, there are no realistic at-large chances on the women’s side, so the regular season is all about seeding in the tournament and putting one’s program in the right position at the right time.
WKU is still probably the odds-on favorite with their explosive offense and all-conference talent at several positions. However, half of the conference could make an argument as a serious contender. Much of this will be settled in the coming weeks, but C-USA women’s basketball is fairly open this season.