State of Conference USA: February 11
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. We’re now looking at NCAA Tournament seeding as that comes in focus.
Conference USA was 23rd of 32 conference in Division I men’s basketball in 2016–17. The women’s side was 16th. With nearly 2/3 of the season complete, Conference USA stands 14th and 18th of 32 in men’s and women’s basketball, respectively.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
Men’s Basketball
Conference USA is shaping up to be a tale of three races: Regular season Championship, the fourth bye, and making the conference tournament.
With five or six games remaining (depending on schedule), Middle Tennessee, Old Dominion, and Western Kentucky are virtually guaranteed byes in the Conference USA Tournament and are each in the running for the regular season championship.
Marshall, North Texas, UTSA, UAB, La Tech, and Southern Miss are all within 2.5 games of each other, competing for a potential first-round bye.
FIU, FAU, UTEP, Rice, and Charlotte are all in danger of missing the cut for the C-USA Tournament. In all likelihood, two of these five will not make it to Frisco, Texas in March.
Title Contenders
MTSU (20–5, 12–1 C-USA, RPI: 27, BPI: 49, SOS: 86, RV/RV) is once again the clear favorite. The Blue Raiders continue to take care of business, dispatching Rice and dark horse North Texas this week at home. Middle’s schedule gets significantly more difficult now. They face five consecutive teams competing for a first-round bye to finish off their regular season. If Middle wins another regular season championship, they will need to run through UAB, WKU, and Marshall at home in consecutive weeks.
MTSU is also the sole true hope for C-USA’s at-large chances. Middle boasts an RPI in the 20’s with now several quality wins and no bad losses.
WKU (18–7, 10–2 C-USA, RPI: 55, BPI: 69, SOS: 83) firmly confirmed itself as out of the at-large picture in any way. Barring serious luck and a weakening of the bubble, no C-USA team besides MTSU will sniff an at-large bid. Much like the Blue Raiders, the Hilltoppers have several difficult opponents remaining. WKU faces North Texas, Old Dominion, MTSU, and UAB by the end of the season.
Old Dominion (19–5, 10–2 C-USA, RPI: 84, BPI: 71, SOS: 224) has only lost in conference to MTSU and WKU, the two teams ahead of them in the standings. ODU faces a fairly lenient schedule, all things considered. Four home games, two extremely tough road games, three against teams fighting to make the tournament make ODU as a conference champion completely possible. ODU may not be the best team in the conference, but the schedule has allowed the Monarchs to be right in it.
Competing for the Last Bye
Marshall (17–8, 8–4 C-USA, RPI: 109, BPI: 144, SOS: 195) is virtually out of the race for first with losses to ODU and WKU stealing most tiebreakers. However, Marshall is the favorite to finish atop the heap of dark horses. A huge battle with North Texas Saturday will either allow the Herd some breathing room or tighten up the race for this final spot.
After 12 conference games, North Texas (14–11, 7–5 C-USA, RPI: 182, BPI: 201, SOS: 235) is still yet to finish a Conference USA game with a scoring margin larger than seven points. UNT finds itself in battles each week, regardless of competition. The Mean Green are quickly establishing themselves as a dark horse. Beat WKU and Marshall this coming week, and everyone in the conference will take notice.
UTSA (14–11, 7–5 C-USA, RPI: 199, BPI: 192, SOS: 226) just beat UAB, Marshall, and Western the past few weeks. The Roadrunners went from a team looking very average to being one game out of a bye. That’s what happens when you beat the big boys.
A few weeks ago, UAB (16–10, 7–6 C-USA, RPI: 191, BPI: 112, SOS: 250) was absolutely a contender, but now the Blazers are a full two games out of it. It is amazing how quickly things can change, but a few bad losses really have cornered UAB into desperation time.
La Tech (15–11, 6–7 C-USA, RPI: 171, BPI: 129, SOS: 159) will have a tough time staying in the running after this week against UAB and Middle. However, if they can get through this week winning one or both, the Bulldogs could squeeze their way back into the picture. Lose both at home and they’re mathematically eliminated. Precarious.
Southern Miss (13–13, 6–7 C-USA, RPI: 210, BPI: 242, SOS: 173) is still within a few games of contention, so for now, the Eagles have a chance. However, they’re in the same position as La Tech. They must find a way to win a game this week. Two would be ideal. Otherwise, they’re out and risking seeding.
Fighting for a Spot
FIU (11–15, 5–8 C-USA, RPI: 289, BPI: 274, SOS: 244) is playing good basketball. The victories may not be present, but the eye test showed a team better than their record. Despite it all, FIU finds itself with a chance of missing out on the tournament for the second straight year.
FAU (10–15, 4–9 C-USA, RPI: 242, BPI: 240, SOS: 162) has now lost four in a row and could absolutely play its way out of a spot in the C-USA Tournament.
UTEP (7–17, 2–10 C-USA, RPI: 315, BPI: 251, SOS: 192) has lost six games in a row. UTEP is going to need a few wins, or they will find themselves sitting at home.
Rice (5–20, 2–10 C-USA, RPI: 325, BPI: 320, SOS: 199) really much better than their record. However, they seem to find ways to lose. Rice will need divine intervention to beat Marshall or WKU this week.
Charlotte (5–18, 1–11 C-USA, RPI: 313, BPI: 299, SOS: 205) has lost ten straight games. However, someone from Rice, UTEP, and Charlotte are going to the conference tournament.
Overall State of C-USA Men’s Basketball: Three Levels
Middle Tennessee is your clear favorite with a realistic shot at an at-large bid. WKU and ODU are one game back but have more favorable schedules than MTSU. WKU also faces MTSU in Murfreesboro in a few weeks. This race looks like it is going to come down to whichever team finishes with two or less losses. Clearly, Middle has tiebreakers, but that changes with a loss to WKU.
A big jumble in the middle shows six teams with a realistic chance of being ultimately on equal footing with the top three teams, earning one of the four coveted spots.
Several others seem to be massively struggling to even get in the tournament.
Ultimately, whatever team or teams from C-USA end up in the NCAA Tournament, Conference USA has done extremely well overall compared to last year. This will give realistic seeding opportunities for any team that ends up winning in March. In the next few versions of this, we will get specific with realistic seeding for each team.
Women’s Basketball
Conference USA women’s basketball is in a very similar position. Like the men, three teams (UAB, WKU, and Rice) sit atop the standings looking separated from the rest. Middle Tennessee leads the rest of the pack, but only 4.5 games separate 4th to 13th place in the conference. Marshall sits alone, separated from the bottom with only one win.
UAB and Rice have each lost to inferior opponents, while WKU has only lost to the other two favorites on the road. Perhaps Middle Tennessee will scrape its way back into the regular season title hunt if the top teams stumble.
Favorites
UAB (20–3, 9–1 C-USA, RPI: 81, SOS: 248) has now won six games in a row. A couple of recent results have been by single digits, but they were on the road. UAB seemed like a fluke with a weak schedule, but a 20–3 record would be good against any schedule. UAB has beaten WKU, MTSU, La Tech, and Southern Miss. However, UAB plays a vicious final six games, facing only one opponent with a losing record, and that game is on the road in the final tune-up before the conference tournament. UAB battles Rice Thursday. Brutal. Despite it all, if UAB can beat Rice Thursday, they will have a two game cushion with five to play.
WKU (18–6, 9–2 C-USA, RPI: 51, SOS: 108) has been extremely solid for years. However, since Michelle Clark-Heard has taken over the program, WKU generally beats who they should and rarely beat themselves. However, against good competition, they tend to be fairly average. This has proven true in conference play. WKU has sauntered to victories against everyone but Rice and UAB. However, they struggled against the creme of C-USA. Assuming WKU could run the table, WKU needs a ton of help. UAB needs to lose two, and Rice needs to lose one. WKU will hold zero tiebreakers against their closest opponents. WKU battles MTSU Thursday in Murfreesboro.
Rice (18–4, 8–2 C-USA, RPI: 96, SOS: 321) has seemed to be one of C-USA’s best from the beginning of the season. The Owls finally proved their value against WKU Saturday. They do not have a favorable draw the final few games of the season, either, facing UAB and Middle on the road next week. Beat those two and Rice would be the favorite to win the regular season championship.
Dark Horses
Middle Tennessee (15–9, 7–4 C-USA, RPI: 113, SOS: 174) has won four of five, but still does not seem like a true contender. However, MTSU is well-coached and is used to winning championships. They have also been incredibly injury-riddled. A fool would count MTSU out, but MTSU does play the three best teams within the next week and a half. Middle could either be completely back in the title hunt or completely out of it very soon.
Charlotte (10–13, 6–4 C-USA, RPI: 186, SOS: 134) has recently fed on bottom feeders, but its final six games will absolutely put them in with a chance to affect the standings. Charlotte may have one of the toughest remaining schedules in C-USA.
La Tech (16–9, 7–5 C-USA, RPI: 157, SOS: 223) has round into shape. Its only recent losses are to WKU and UAB, and a home win against Rice looks really nice right now. La Tech only has four games remaining, but none of them are guaranteed wins.
UTEP (14–9, 5–5 C-USA, RPI: 135, SOS: 181) may be inconsistent, but the schedule should help the Miners win at least half of their remaining six games. Four of six remaining come against teams with single digit total wins.
Southern Miss (13–10, 5–5 C-USA, RPI: 195, SOS: 222) continues to be confusing. Some games, they have looked a dark horse, and others, they have seemed a weakling. Southern Miss was not handed any favors in their final six games. Five of six will be considered coin flips at best.
FAU (10–11, 4–6 C-USA, RPI: 214, SOS: 182) has lost four in a row, albeit against four teams with winning records. FAU should manage their remaining schedule fairly well, only facing one team with an overall winning record the rest of the way.
North Texas (13–10, 4–7 C-USA, RPI: 222, SOS: 270) handled business against the Florida schools, giving itself the upper hand on some tiebreakers with those two. UNT has only one game they should win remaining on the schedule, however. UNT may be lucky to make the tournament with such a tough remaining schedule.
Old Dominion (6–19, 4–7 C-USA, RPI: 283, SOS: 198) has played decent basketball of late, including a nice win against Southern Miss Saturday. Old Dominion faces five teams in the cluster of ten stuck in the middle. Whether they win or lose, they will play a huge factor in determining seeding come tournament time.
FIU (6–18, 3–8 C-USA, RPI: 302, SOS: 178) has lost six in a row after a surprising 3–2 start. FIU has lost to some bad teams recently. This team is really struggling to put anything together.
UTSA (5–19, 3–9 C-USA, RPI: 295, SOS: 189) has taken advantage of a few weak opponents, but a win against North Texas shows this team can play decent at times. UTSA is at the bottom of a stack of ten teams within a few games of each other.
Out
Marshall (7–17, 1–10 C-USA, RPI: 334, SOS: 307) really looks rough. They would need multiple miracles and help to even sniff the C-USA Tournament at this point. However, they have had some close results of late.
State of C-USA Women’s Basketball: The Haves, The Maybes, and the Not in a Million Years
Much like the men, one of three teams will finish as the first seed. UAB, WKU, and Rice are all staring down realistic possibilities. WKU may be the best and certainly most consistent team with the easiest remaining schedule, but it also needs the most help.
The next ten teams in the standings are all jumbled together, separated by only a few games. None of these teams seem to be so incredible or so horrible that another shouldn’t lose to another. Each has at least one decent win and questionable losses.
Poor Marshall stands alone a full two games behind everyone else. Perhaps Marshall could upset and ruin someone else’s seed, but Marshall just doesn’t seem to have it this year.