State of Conference USA: September 5
Well, it’s back.
Well, it’s back.
In this series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, postseason chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. Depending on the time of year, bowl projections, NCAA Tournament projections, and conference tournament seeding will be discussed at length.
Conference USA football was down from its high standing amidst the Group of Five conferences in 2017. There were no truly dominant forces in the league besides Lane Kiffin’s FAU Owls. Three teams (Charlotte, Rice and UTEP) finished with one win or less. Everyone else was very average, competing to make a bowl game, all having between five and nine wins on the season.
In a year of very average football in Conference USA, nine C-USA teams (MTSU, Marshall, WKU, North Texas, FAU, La Tech, FIU, UAB and Southern Miss) happened to make bowl games in 2017.
As we head deeper into the season, we will break down championship scenarios and bowl possibilities. As basketball season starts, we’ll include information on both men’s and women’s basketball.
Football
As the first week of college football has concluded, we have some data that we can mess with. With six teams receiving first place votes in the preseason media poll, there is no consensus on Conference USA heading into the 2018 season.
Heading into 2018, North Texas and FAU would seem to be the favorites to return to the Conference USA Championship game. Let’s see how it looks after one week.
The Favorites
Florida Atlantic (0–1 overall, 0–0 C-USA) received votes in the preseason polls, but after a 63–14 drubbing by Oklahoma in Week 1, voters quickly lost sight of the Owls. However, FAU has to be the going away favorite to win the conference once again. Lane Kiffin is doing a good job bringing in talent, and his team jumped from 3–9 before he was there to 11–3 and a championship in his first year. FAU is favored to take down Air Force at home Saturday.
North Texas (1–0 overall, 0–0 C-USA) was extremely impressive against a pretty good SMU team, winning 46–23 in Denton. If anything, this initial win confirms the Mean Green are for real and should be the solid favorite to win Conference USA’s West Division. UNT heads into Week 2 with a battle with Incarnate Word. North Texas should enter Conference USA play September 29 at 3–1, with a presumed loss at Arkansas and what should amount to wins against Liberty and Incarnate Word.
Dark Horses
Marshall (1–0 overall, 0–0 C-USA) looks poised to return to the top of the heap at some point within the next few years. Knowing what a proud fan base with great tradition the Thundering Herd has, this program should not stay down in the doldrums for long. Marshall was impressive against Miami (OH), taking care of business in a 35–28 win. Don’t be fooled, though. Marshall was up 28–7 before the Red Hawks tried to make a game of it. Marshall faces EKU next week, but the real tests should come from South Carolina and N.C. State in the coming weeks.
FIU (0–1 overall, 0–0 C-USA) has a great, experienced coach and looked fairly impressive at home against Indiana in front of tens of their most loyal fans (Announced attendance: 17,082 [Typical FIU attendance inflation{This is how they fooled C-USA into picking them over other worthy candidates. This blatant attendance farce needs to stop, FIU. Just admit no one in South Florida cares.}]). If I was picking a team off the grid to win Conference USA, I’d probably pick FIU. FIU starts conference play against ODU and then takes on UMass, Miami and Arkansas-Pine Bluff before getting into the meat of the C-USA schedule.
Louisiana Tech (1–0 overall, 0–0 C-USA) controlled the game against South Alabama this past weekend. That’s a decent win against a team the Bulldogs should probably beat. With a more experienced J’Mar Smith under center and momentum from a 51–10 bowl victory in 2017, why couldn’t La Tech get back to perennial Conference USA runner-up once again? La Tech faces Southern and LSU before starting C-USA play with a bang against UNT September 29.
Conference USA darling UAB (1–0 overall, 0–0 C-USA) heads into 2018 with a new lease on life. After having the program completely axed, the Blazers came back with a vengeance in 2017, becoming bowl eligible and making a bowl game in its first year back. What an amazing story, but UAB looks to improve against one of the softer overall schedules in the conference in 2018. Already with a cupcake win (52–0 over Savannah State), Coastal Carolina and Tulane serve as winnable non-conference games before Charlotte comes to town at the end of the month. UAB has one game on its schedule that seems untouchable (at Texas A&M in November). Otherwise, if UAB could throw together some magic, they could reach 9 or 10 wins this season. That might make the story even better. Honestly, how could you not cheer for the guys in that program?
Southern Miss (1–0 overall, 0–0 C-USA) had a pretty decent year last year, winning eight games and finishing one game away from first place in the West. USM was impressive in week one, scoring 55 points and winning by 48, albeit against Jackson State. I would keep an eye on this program. USM faces a very challenging schedule in and out of the conference schedule, facing the likes of Appalachian State, Auburn, Marshall, UNT, La Tech and UAB.
Unknown Quantities
Middle Tennessee (0–1 overall, 0–0 C-USA) is one of the few teams that disappointed in its first game. Middle was hoping to go into Vanderbilt and maybe steal a game, or at least look good against an SEC opponent. Instead, the Blue Raiders were ran out of the building after keeping it close early. Middle tunes up with Tennessee-Martin before heading to Georgia to what will surely be a bloodbath. Middle then takes on FAU in a game that could decide whether Middle has a chance in C-USA this year.
Western Kentucky (0–1 overall, 0–0 C-USA) lost to Wisconsin 34–3 Friday. On the surface, this was brutal, but WKU really showed something, and it looks like WKU may finish closer to the top half of the conference than the bottom half. Can they compete for a championship? Time will tell, but a battle with Maine awaits. Then WKU goes to Louisville and Ball State before starting C-USA play against Marshall at home. WKU may be able to take advantage of a soft C-USA schedule this season, facing Middle, ODU, Charlotte, and UTEP and only facing one conference opponent likely to be a loss (FAU).
UTSA (0–1 overall, 0–0 C-USA) really looked rough against Arizona State in a 49–7 slaughtering. Perhaps the question is whether ASU is that good, or if UTSA is going to be terrible. UTSA found a way to get on the board late in garbage time, but only mustered 220 total yards and only two yards on the ground. That’s a bad sign, but UTSA stays in the unknown category for now.
Rice (1–1 overall, 0–0 C-USA) has already matched its win total from 2017, so things are looking up! In all honesty, winning by three over Prairie View A&M isn’t all that impressive, but leading Houston, a program recently removed from a New Years Six Bowl, for a half is a darn good showing. Rice ended up losing by 17, but good for them for showing some life. Rice heads to Hawaii next week before starting Conference USA play at Southern Miss in two weeks. We’ll keep them as an unknown for now. Who knows? Maybe they could win a few more this year.
Cellar Dwellers
Old Dominion (0–1 overall, 0–0 C-USA) looked dreadful against recent FBS addition Liberty on Saturday. Losing by 42 to a brand new member of your division (albeit on the road) is not the way to kick off the year. Picked to finish sixth in the East, Old Dominion looks like what many thought it would be, but losing that bad makes it seem like they may struggle to win anymore than two games all season. Youch.
Charlotte (1–0 overall, 0–0 C-USA) took care of business against Fordham in a 34–10 victory in its first game. However, Charlotte sure doesn’t seem to be heading in the right direction. Now participating in Conference USA for a fourth year, can Charlotte remotely compete with the top, or even the middle, of the conference? A soft conference schedule may help Charlotte pull a few surprise victories, but don’t count on it.
UTEP (0–1 overall, 0–0 C-USA) just lost to Northern Arizona by 20. After going 0–12 in 2017, can UTEP win a game this year? Unfortunately for the Miners, every team they face from this point forward is a decent or better FBS opponent. After losing to their lone FCS opponent, the Miners need to upset to even win one game.
Overall State of C-USA: No Clue
FAU should be the prohibitive favorite to win C-USA, but they didn’t look as good as they did last year against Oklahoma. Naturally, Oklahoma could just be that good, FAU could’ve had a bad game, or FAU could be taking a step back. That remains to be seen. North Texas, FIU, La Tech, WKU, USM, Rice, UAB, and Marshall all looked decent this past week. Middle and ODU looked rough. Others remain to be seen.
What will come of this season? Literally no one knows, but since WKU lost its dominance of the conference last season, Conference USA’s hierarchy is impossible to sort out. One thing is for sure: Someone will emerge from the pack, win the divisions, and get some rings. Your guess is as good as mine.