State of Conference USA: Time to Find Out Who's Real and Who's Not
FB: As CUSA play ramps up, which teams are contenders, pretenders, and cellar dwellers?
As we head into the meat of the CUSA schedule, nearly every team is playing a conference game every week from here on out. It’s clearly put up or shut up time.
Teams like WKU and Liberty have been preseason favorites from the start. Compared to exactly what people thought might happen, Liberty looks vulnerable but still good enough, and WKU looks well-rounded enough at times to possibly end up above Liberty in the standings. Are they the favorite? Shoot, is Sam Houston State the best team in CUSA? They certainly could be with a 5-1 overall record against a quality schedule.
Some teams have surprised, like FIU and especially Sam Houston State. Although Sam was considered by some to be the next surprise of CUSA, just about no one had SHSU being 5-1 heading into what is now a monumental matchup against WKU in Huntsville, Texas, Wednesday. Despite some ups and downs, FIU took Liberty to overtime. They may fade, but their performance thus far this season has been noteworthy.
To our great pleasure, teams like MTSU, UTEP, and NMSU were considered possible options in the second spot in CUSA, but these three have virtually eliminated themselves by early season CUSA losses.
La Tech is up and down but has opportunity with only one loss in conference. The town of Ruston does not seem to trust head coach Sonny Cumbie, but the fact of the matter is La Tech could still compete for a spot if they pull themselves together.
The clear bottom feeder seems like Kennesaw State. They are new to the FBS and they have not come close to a victory thus far this season. Their only foray into CUSA play has been a blow out loss to JSU, not a guaranteed top tier contender in their own right. It only gets more difficult from here, with seven conference games in a row including the likes of Sam Houston, Liberty, and WKU.
Current CUSA Standings
Liberty 3-0, 5-0 overall
Sam Houston 2-0 5-1 overall
Western Kentucky 2-0, 4-2 overall
Jax State 2-0, 3-3 overall
FIU 1-1, 2-4 overall
La Tech 1-1, 2-3 overall
Kennesaw State 0-1, 0-5 overall
MTSU 0-2, 1-5 overall
New Mexico State 0-3, 1-5 overall
UTEP 0-3, 0-6 overall
Papa McCay’s CUSA Summary
At the Conference USA meetings in Dallas earlier this year, coaches and media predicted who would be the best teams in CUSA football. Although those predictions don’t currently apply, I have ordered teams according to their preseason prediction. These preseason predictions certainly do not apply for certain teams like Sam Houston and MTSU, but many of the other teams are right about where they were supposed to be.
The Liberty University Flames currently sit at 5-0 with wins against Campbell, New Mexico State, UTEP, FIU, and East Carolina. Their game against Appalachian State was canceled due to Hurricane Helene. Their balanced offensive attack, defense, and special teams have been lethal to the teams they have faced this year. This season, though, the Flames are not running away with games, but are still a certain contender for the CUSA Championship. Liberty should still probably be the favorite, but they are playing like more of a co-favorite with the likes of the three other currently undefeated teams in conference play (WKU, SHSU, JSU). Contender
The Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers currently sit at 4-2 with losses to Alabama (63-0) and Boston College (21-20). Western’s pass attack has been adequate to win three games, but has struggled at times, like against Alabama, the third quarter against EKU, the first half against Toledo, and the second half against Boston College. The only “Four Quarter” games were MTSU and UTEP. Is it player production issues or play calling? Both have been questionable at times. Western’s defense has also has had its ups and downs this season in all games. WKU is the only team in the top six statistically in all categories in CUSA, though. Western should be strong enough to make it to the CUSA Championship, but with JSU re-emerging as a possible contender in its last few games, WKU has all three contenders left to contest with only one at home (JSU). Contender
The Jacksonville State University Gamecocks seem to have righted the ship after a disappointing 0-3 start, winning their last three games by more than 30 points. Their next few games will be telling as the rest of their schedule looks tough. I am not sure they will be able to contend for the championship. I see them as a pretender finishing 5th or 6th. I understand Jacksonville State has shown some ability the past three games, but I’m personally not buying it. I say they fade to end the season, mainly because of the schedule. Pretender
The Middle Tennessee State University Blue Raiders have struggled defensively this season as they sit last in conference giving up 39 points per game. But they have a very strong passing attack, and if they can figure anything out defensively, they could be a team that you do not want to face in the last few weeks of the season. With a new coach, if he’s worth his weight in salt, they may show improvement later in the year. Sometimes it takes a while to change the entire program’s philosophy. But really they are a media darling pretender and should finish in the bottom half of CUSA. Pretender
(tied) The New Mexico State University Aggies come into this week’s play at a disappointing 1-5. After playing well enough to win against FCS SEMO, they have struggled so far in the early season. They are another team that if they get things going, they could cause problems against WKU on 11/9, especially at home in the elevation. The Aggies will probably end up with four or five conference wins and finish in the middle of CUSA. Other than the WKU matchup in Las Cruces, the schedule eases up significantly to end the season. Pretender
(tied) The Sam Houston State University Bearkats have started off well at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in CUSA. They have a very powerful rushing attack that will cause problems for every team they face the rest of the way. Unless I miss my guess and they fall apart the Bearkats should finish in the top 3 in CUSA with WKU and Liberty and therefore contend for the CUSA title. All season, they have looked pretty even with WKU and Liberty. Contender
The Louisiana Tech University Bulldogs come in at 2-3 after losing to FIU in their last game 17-10. They played well against Tulsa and NC State but fell short. I suspect they will play most teams in CUSA within seven points or so, but only find wins against MTSU, UTEP and Kennesaw State. This team is a “not” as they will probably finish near the bottom this season. Cellar Dweller
The Florida International University Panthers are 2-4 after upsetting LA Tech and taking Liberty to overtime. This is one of the three CUSA teams that lost to a smaller division school this season and unless they turn things around, the Panthers will finish near the bottom of CUSA once again. This team will NOT be a contender for the CUSA Championship. Pretender
University of Texas El Paso (formerly Texas Western) Miners have started off the season 0-6 and is one of the CUSA schools having lost to a lower conference school, Southern Utah. If UTEP can reduce their penalties and hold onto the football, they would be dangerous due to their pressure defense. They lead the conference in sacks and passing yards allowed per game. Regardless, unless things change drastically offensively, they will be near the bottom of CUSA and NOT a contender. Cellar Dweller
The Kennesaw State University Owls are new to CUSA and another struggling program at 0-5. All of their losses are by ten or more with the most recent being 63-24 to Jacksonville State. They will be lucky to win a game this year but have a good history in lower divisions. They may be better in future years, but they will be fortunate to win a single game this season. Cellar Dweller
Young Buck McCay’s CUSA Thoughts
Personal Power Rankings
Liberty
WKU
Sam Houston State
Jacksonville State
FIU
La Tech
NMSU
UTEP
MTSU
Kennesaw State
Future Schedules
Liberty-at Kennesaw State, vs Jax State, at MTSU, at UMASS, vs WKU, at Sam Houston. Difficulty level: Medium
WKU-at Sam Houston, vs Kennesaw State, at NMSU, vs La Tech, at Liberty, vs Jax State. Difficulty level: High
Sam Houston-vs WKU, at FIU, vs La Tech, at Kennesaw State, at Jax State, vs Liberty. Difficulty level: Medium
Jacksonville State-vs. MTSU, at Liberty, at La Tech, vs FIU, vs Sam Houston, at WKU. Difficulty level: Very High
FIU-at UTEP, vs Sam Houston, vs NMSU, at Jax State, at Kennesaw State, vs MTSU. Difficulty level: Easy
La Tech-at NMSU, vs. UTEP, at Sam Houston State, vs Jax State, at WKU, at Arkansas, vs Kennesaw State. Difficulty level: Very High
NMSU-vs La Tech, at FIU, vs WKU, at Texas A&M, at MTSU, vs UTEP. Difficulty level: Medium
UTEP-vs. FIU, at La Tech, vs MTSU, vs Kennesaw State, at Tennessee, at NMSU. Difficulty level: Medium
MTSU-vs. Kennesaw State, at Jax State, at UTEP, vs. Liberty, vs. NMSU, at FIU. Difficulty level: Medium
Kennesaw State-at MTSU, vs. Liberty, at WKU, at UTEP, vs. Sam Houston State, vs. FIU, at La Tech. Difficulty level: Very high
Contenders, Technically Still in It, and Already Eliminated
Let’s start from the bottom up. Three teams are already in big trouble, nearly eliminated from contention already. MTSU has two conference losses, and NMSU and UTEP already have three losses. Everyone else in the conference is still technically in it, could win out the rest of the way, and would likely make the conference championship game if they record one loss or less. In the case of one loss or less, they would have built tiebreakers against every other school but one or two. In theory, seven of ten CUSA teams are currently still in the race. Once a team loses two, they are praying for parity and hoping for miraculous tiebreakers to determine their fate.
Of the three that are already out, all three are capable. MTSU has a new coach with experience, a good quarterback, and running backs when healthy. NMSU is a team that nearly beat Liberty at home and had internal expectations to return to the CUSA championship game. UTEP is also a team that plays solid football that just doesn’t have the talent yet. WKU saw that on display in a game that became too close for comfort briefly after halftime. These three could absolutely steal a game or two from the upper echelon of CUSA.
Kennesaw State is the only team that is fully in contention that is fully out. There is no way in Hades that the Owls do anything but pray for one win on the season. They are getting blown out every game. They’ll probably find one somewhere, but don’t count on them winning more than one, especially because they still face everyone significant in the race but Jacksonville State.
FIU and La Tech are still in the race. La Tech has a brutal schedule, though. In addition to playing a Power Five team with a top five win in Arkansas, they play two of the three main contenders on the road and also get to travel far west and take on NMSU, a tough place to play at altitude. FIU has a much more manageable schedule, not drawing WKU at all this season, have already played Liberty and nearly won, and beat La Tech. FIU could be favored in a lot of these games to end the year, with only Sam Houston and Jacksonville State as the two most presumably difficult games. They have a legitimate shot to be in the top half of the conference at year’s end.
Liberty, WKU, Sam Houston, and Jacksonville State all play each other at some point in the next seven or eight weeks. Jacksonville State has the toughest road, having already seen Kennesaw State and having two of the other three main contenders on the road. Very little will be given and much must be earned for the Gamecocks. WKU slots in at the next toughest schedule, having to go to Liberty and Sam Houston. They do get to host Jacksonville State on the final weekend in what could be a spoiler game for either or a battle for the second spot in the CUSA championship game. Sam Houston and Liberty both have fairly easy draws, although of course they will be tested given they haven’t played anybody serious in CUSA yet. Liberty is already nearly halfway home and has a bye week and a cupcake to start the back half of their schedule. They also get to tune up against UMASS before their two biggest games of the year. Sam Houston gets WKU this week, gets FIU and Jacksonville State on the road, and finishes the year with an epic battle at home against Liberty.
Liberty and SHSU have the best setups, but do they have the goods? WKU is certainly playing as well as anyone, but will the difficult portion of the schedule bite them? Jacksonville State is good enough, but can they really reel off wins against all of these difficult opponents on the road? Something has to give.
Personally, I predicted a WKU/Sam Houston State CUSA Championship game last week, so I’m sticking with that. At the end of the day, I trust WKU’s overall talent and Sam Houston’s great ability to be really solid on both sides of the ball. Liberty and JSU have looked shaky and I just don’t trust them. The Flames have played with too much fire this season. JSU is less well-rounded than the other three contenders.
In the next two weeks for everyone, we will know much more about who is most likely to earn the top two finishes in CUSA. It won’t be over, but no more than two teams will be sitting without losses thus far in conference play. With four undefeated teams and seven teams in the picture, who knows what happens at this point?
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