State of Conference USA: Who Gets a Bye for the Conference USA Men's Basketball Tournament?
A deep dive into Conference USA Basketball heading into the final two weeks of the season, if you were wondering anything about Conference USA Tournament and how it will work, enjoy!
Conference USA is one of the strongest leagues in the country once again, but instead of a clear favorite and several teams that could contend like it was a few years ago, this time it’s a clustered mess where only one team (FIU) seems to be completely out of it. Nine other CUSA teams have legitimate shots at a title, and eight have a mathematically legitimate shot at only playing three games in three (or four) days just two weeks before the regular season ends.
In the bigger picture, any team can beat any team, and it makes for an extremely exciting and compelling Conference USA Tournament March 11-15 in Huntsville, Alabama. Not one team should feel supremely confident heading into March. No team has won more than seven in a row (JSU), and only one team currently has a winning streak longer than three games (Liberty, 5). Very few teams have shown any consistency away from home, and no team has a dominant stat monster that can’t be stopped.
Several teams have high point scorers, but no team has more than two individual players in the top 17 in the league in scoring. #18? Sam Houston, the current ninth place team in the league, has its third player on the list of top flight scorers in Conference USA.
Confused yet?
If you know of anyone saying they know what’s going to happen in Conference USA Tournament, they’re crazy.
Maybe there’s some way to distinguish by looking at the coaches? Nope. Ray Harper of Jacksonville State probably has the best DI (and overall) resume of anyone (four championships but none in CUSA), but he hasn’t won in years and hasn’t won in Conference USA. WKU won last year, but its coach left and they’re devastated by injury. New Mexico State’s coach used to coach at Sam Houston when they were in the Southland, and shoot, the aforementioned Ray Harper used to coach at WKU when they were in the Sun Belt.
The combined number of CUSA Championships won by the programs in said conference? 3 (MTSU, 2016 & 2017; WKU, 2024)
Also, Conference USA has ten members, so the way they’ve drawn it up to create an eight team quarterfinal is for only four teams (7-10 seeds) to compete in the first round. Six other teams get byes and only need to win three games, and two of those six get an extra day of rest instead of the typical three games in three days. In a bizarre twist of scheduling a one arena tournament (women’s basketball competes in the same arena on the same days), the 7-10 seeds and the 1-2 seeds get Thursday off, assuming they win through to the semifinals, which are played on Friday.
That does seem like some kind of advantage for the 1 and 2 seed, but interestingly, in the first year this happened, the one and two seeds did not make the finals last year. So was there an advantage at all? The way it shakes out, it seems like CUSA has created for itself just about the most even, exciting men’s basketball bracket in all of Division I this season.
With the combination of good but not great teams and the format of the tournament, it’s anyone’s guess who takes home the crown.
State of Conference USA
The Seeding Format
Seeds are given out based on the conference standings. If a team has won more conference games, they are the higher seed. If two teams are tied with an even conference record, it comes down to head-to-head. If there’s still a tie, we break down how each team did against the 1 seed. Then the 2 seed. Then the 3 seed. Until there is a difference. If there is a three way tie, the same process is observed, but each team is differentiated one at a time until no teams are unseeded. This applies to all ties more than two. When one team is separated out, start at the top of the tiebreak list again until the next team stands out as the next seed.
This is important detail, because look at the standings. Four teams could potentially tie for first place in CUSA. That’s unlikely, but it’s possible. Five teams sit within each other in the middle from 4-8. That’s also incredibly unlikely, but the chances that there is not a three way tie somewhere in CUSA at year’s end seem smaller than normal.
The Bracket
The Standings
The Obvious
There are a couple of outliers to note. Although eight teams are separated by 4.5 games with four to play, Jacksonville State will not possibly fall below sixth, even if they lose every game. Because 7th and 8th La Tech and WKU have more losses than JSU could finish with, JSU is for sure getting a bye and is incredibly likely to be a top three seed.
The other obvious statement at the top is Liberty should get a bye. They need a win or both WKU or La Tech to lose any one of their games and they will also be incredibly likely to finish 4th or higher.
At the bottom, FIU can finish no higher than 8th, but need to catch both Sam Houston and WKU in miraculous fashion in order to climb out of the very bottom. Sam Houston is also in dire straits when considering their bid for a bye. They can possibly finish as high as 5th, but winning the rest of their games doesn’t even guarantee them gaining a single spot in the standings.
The Less Obvious
Because of how the schedules shake out, everyone in 8th and above is in complete control of its own destiny as far as earning a bye. Western Kentucky, although in the most precarious position, can win two games and make it into the top six. Louisiana Tech doesn’t have much work to do. UTEP and NMSU would do themselves huge favors by beating La Tech and/or WKU. Kennesaw State is interesting, because they do not play anyone in the middle of the pack, but they do have the current top two seeds and the bottom seed on their schedule. With one win, they’re probably in. With two, they’re definitely in.
At the top, NMSU has a glimmer of reaching into the upper stratosphere and can definitely claim the 3rd seed by beating MTSU and being even with them or better. They can possibly get the top seed with a miracle. MTSU is one game in the loss column away from Jax State, but likely needs JSU to lose two of three because of tiebreakers. Liberty sits a half game back of JSU and has better tiebreaker options than the other two teams. If Liberty can beat MTSU and JSU and keep pace with JSU, they’ll win the top seed. JSU has more wins in hand and possibly has the easiest remaining schedule in Conference USA despite a titanic matchup at Liberty Thursday.
The Battles
The top seeds are really interesting, because they’re all on about equal footing for different reasons. MTSU is the slight dog, but they also control a good chunk of things by being able to play both Liberty and NMSU. They have also split with JSU, so they are in with a real shot. Liberty and JSU control their own destiny, and Liberty has to be the favorite in the game between the two since the game is in Lynchburg. The problem is their schedule is brutal, with three of the top four other teams in the conference, one on the road, and on the road at WKU, who is 12-4 at home and already beat Liberty.
The middle of the pack will be fascinating to watch. From a WKU perspective, the Tops really need at least one win against NMSU or UTEP, and if they find some way to get both on the road, they should absolutely be golden, especially given FIU at home the game after that. La Tech only has three games to play, but they can fend off a charging Sam Houston and can singlehandedly put themselves in incredible shape by beating UTEP and either NMSU or Sam Houston.
UTEP, the current 6th seed, is facing a gauntlet themselves with every team near them having reason to fight them to the death. All four teams they face directly climb by beating them, so they will have a tough time handling the onslaught of determined foes. They do get Western and Middle at home, so they should be slight favorites in both games, but then they also move eastward to take on Sam Houston and La Tech on the road.
Next up is Kennesaw State. On an island in the middle of the pack, they face no one that directly affects them, but if they were to lose three or win three, they would be changing position significantly in the CUSA standings.
Then there’s NMSU. They are unlikely to fall out of the top six just because so many teams play each other, but keep in mind, if they get blitzed by WKU and Middle, they are staring down the barrel of desperation on the road. Yes, they could come out this week unscathed and be competing for the very top, but if they don’t hold serve at home, and especially if they drop both, they’re probably on the outside looking in and would be scrapping to not play on Tuesday.
Who Can Actually Win?
Anyone besides FIU. Yes I mean that.
Why, though?
Let’s start from the bottom:
FIU: No way. Single digit overall wins. Doesn’t win away from home.
Sam Houston: Talented. First team with three players in the top 18 in scoring in the conference. Playing well right now. Also angry about last year with a pretty good coach.
WKU: Last year’s champions. Decimated by injury, they’re still winning without at least two players that should come back with up to two more that could come back before CUSA Tournament begins. All four of the missing players average 8.5 points or more per game. Fans will travel. Team plays extremely hard and doesn’t quit.
La Tech: Incredible player in Daniel Batcho. 18 overall wins. Four of eight conference losses by five points or less.
UTEP: Angry from last season. Good team that forces tons of turnovers. Good players. Good system.
Kennesaw State: Big. Two possible first-team all C-USA players. New to the league, so not as well known as others. Close enough to travel some fans.
NMSU: Balanced. Good defense. Good guards. Productive bigs. Winning record away from home (one of only two CUSA teams). Their band drinks gasoline.
MTSU: Super long and athletic. Lots of weapons. Coach has been there for years. Angry about last year’s ending. Hungry program back on the rise since falling backwards a few years ago. Fans follow their women’s basketball as much as their men but will bring a crowd.
Liberty: Most wins in the conference. Beautiful basketball. Good guards. Wins on the road and at home. Currently on a five game winning streak. Also, they possibly have The Lord on their side.
Jacksonville State: Really good team. Longest winning streak in CUSA this year. Conference’s clear best player. Conference’s clear most experienced coach. Hungry program with good fans that should travel.
State of CUSA: Blind Darts
You might as well close your eyes, turn around three times, and throw a dart from 20 feet away, because that’s about as accurate as a prediction might go for Conference USA the rest of the way. The math says the four bottom teams may stay where they are, but a couple of road upsets and everything changes.
Once we get into conference tournament, truly anyone can make a run at it. No top seed will be safe, and no lowly seeded team is incapable of winning multiple games. Truly any top six team should be strongly considered as a contender for the title.
Buckle up, Conference USA fans. And if you’re just stopping by to see what’s up with CUSA, you should stick around, because this could be one of the best conference tournaments in all of Division I. Tune in March 11-15.
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