The Towel Rack Mailbag: Dragons, Way-Too-Early Hoops Outlooks, Conference Stability
Welcome to April, everyone! (he says three days later.)
Welcome to April, everyone! (he says three days later.)
We’re right around the week point of the basketball offseason, and what better way to mark the week of no hoops than with a wide-ranging mailbag, one of my favorite things to do!
So, without further adieu, let’s answer those questions.
Canonically, Dragons are considered to be “serpent-like” creatures (thanks, Wikipedia) and, since snakes lay eggs, it’s only plausible that dragons lay eggs.
Also, Dragons can fly like birds, and birds lay eggs, so it’s only plausible that dragons lay eggs.
And, Dragons are aiken to dinosaurs who, you guessed it, laid eggs, so it’s only plausible that dragons lay eggs.
For my fellow Game of Thrones fans, how did Danny come to acquire Drogon, Rhaegal and Viserion? Eggs were presented to her at her wedding.
Look, here’s a Bulgarian statue of a pair of Dragons holding a golden egg
Remember the best Harry Potter film, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, what Harry’s first task was in the triwizard tournament, and what item he was attempting to retrieve was?
So, what have we learned? Dragons = egg layers.
Oh yeah, this is a sports website. Lets get to some of those questions.
First, thank you, Hank, for the bone. It was delicious.
Secondly, let me preface everything by saying I didn’t watch a ton of ODU this year, but it seems like the biggest impact will be felt two places: the bench and the boards.
With Porter gone, you have two forwards left from last year’s team — incoming junior Aaron Carver (who averaged 2.2 points, 4.0 rebounds and is three inches shorter than Porter) and freshman Alfis Pilavios (C-USA’s Greek Freak?), who is even smaller than Carver. With Porter, you had a name in the conference everyone knew, and you had experience — now, with those two, you have neither.
Porter was dominant on the glass last year — only Brandan Stith (who is also leaving due to graduation) had more rebounds (Stith had 7.7 a night, Porter logged 6.2) and Porter was the third-most efficient offensive rebounder and fourth-most efficient defensive rebounder. As it stands right now, the most returning rebounds from this year to next looks to be BJ Stith’s 5.7, then Ahmad Caver’s 3.5. That’s a pretty steep decline.
Now, who’s to say someone wouldn’t have grabbed all of Porter’s rebounds if he hadn’t been on the floor this year? Obviously, someone has to step up in his absence, and the more one person does instead of the work being split between two or even three players, the better off the Monarchs will be.
Offensively, yes, you’re losing 13.2 points a night, but you’re returning two 14.2 scorers and who’s to say someone like Xavier Green doesn’t take a huge step forward in his sophomore campaign, or with added minutes Aaron Carver steps up to add nine or 10 a game?
Porter’s loss will hurt, but I don’t think it’s detrimental.
I think it isn’t out of the question to say North Texas potentially starts next season in the top tier on the men’s side.
The top five leading scorers and four top rebounders are returning, are theoretically only going to get better, and that C-USA west might be theirs for the taking (I understand basketball isn’t split up that way, but you have to think, home-and-homes with the other three Texas schools are very much in the Mean Green’s favor, with La Tech as the main competition in that region of the conference [in this example, I’m keeping UAB on the eastern side of things]).
Taking a look at UNT’s schedule from this past year, I count one bad loss — losing 74–54 to FAU. Other than that, every loss was understandable (but close — took WKU to overtime, lost to MT by six, lost to ODU by three, lost to La Tech by one), and a majority of them were close.
In terms of things out of UNT’s control, MT is no longer starting next year in the top tier (but on the periphery), UAB is a question mark, La Tech is a question mark, ODU might be a question mark. You can convince me right now the three best teams entering next year are Marshall, WKU and the Mean Green.
I hope so too, Dan.
Here’s the thing — if this year’s team plays like they did last year, they don’t finish with a losing record. They might not get a bowl, but another 6–6 year is the worst this team does.
Using the same premise of “last year’s team, this year’s schedule,” you can chalk up four wins — Maine, Charlotte, FIU, UTEP. I think the Tops can beat Ball State. I think the Tops take two of three from the following — ODU, MT, La Tech. There’s a chance FAU is a boatrace. Marshall is kind of a toss up. And, barring a miracle, I don’t think Wisconsin is competitive and the Tops could give Louisville an early scare, but wont escape with a W.
Let’s say the running game is a bit more successful and the redzone turnovers stop. Ball State is a win (five), ODU will be a win (six) and that leaves at least one win against MT or La Tech.
My gut tells me this is going to be a unique WKU season. I think we’ll see flashes of the Brohm era, with a competent that vastly outplays their opponent, but by the same token, an eight-win season is best-case scenario.
I share your fear about going 6–6 again, but I’m still drinking the Sanford cool aid. I’ll begin to worry if this year goes to hell.
If you had asked me the day the announcement was made that WKU was going to C-USA, I’d have told you with 100% certainty the Tops were in the C-USA train for the long-haul, just like they were in the Sun Belt before and the OVC before that.
Now, I’m not really sure. While the current makeup of conferences isn’t nearly as unstable as it was back in 2012 or so, when WKU and the other SBC jump overs went to C-USA, it’s still always a fluid situation. And, there are several factors in play.
I don’t think anyone knows how long the current shape of C-USA will last. Is a merger coming soon? Will the P5/G5 spit become even more so, leading to super conferences of 20 or so teams?
But say that doesn’t happen: Where will WKU go? Who wants a program with a budget that is being slashed and half-empty stadiums for most every game in a market that is an hour from anything someone would consider “major”? I know that all sounds harsh, but Louisville, Cincy, Marquette, Memphis all draw, are all in markets and all moved up (although, I ascribe to the belief that today’s AAC is just the C-USA from 10 years ago and not just because of the names involved in both).
Also, if you’re WKU, what conferences are you willing to listen to to look to move? Sure, the AAC might seem like an obvious choice, but what if the MAC calls? Or are you holding out to do what UofL did and jump straight to the ACC or Big 12 or…I don’t even know.
I think we all would like to see WKU move up, but all of the logistics make it seem like they wont. Which is a shame.
This was maybe the most fun mailbag I’ve done, and we’ll have to do it again real soon. Thanks to everyone for the questions, and if you ever have a question, hit us up on Twitter or Facebook.