The Towel Rack Mailbag: Football Forecasting, Myrtle Beach Bracketology and Quarterback Futures

Usually around this time in the week, we are putting the finishing touches on our game previews and prediction pieces and all that…

Usually around this time in the week, we are putting the finishing touches on our game previews and prediction pieces and all that, except…there’s no game this week.

However, the show must go on! So, we opened up our mailbag for this bye-week and you all had some questions! Lets dive in.

These two are kind of the same, so we’ll answer them in one breath!

To refresh your memory, here’s what the rest of the Tops’ schedule looks like:

Now before I dive into my predictions, I’ll preface with this: It’s feasable the Tops win out. It is. They’ve shown that they can compete with just about anyone and if they can get some momentum under their belt, we could be taking about one heckuva turnaround at the season’s end.

By the same token, they Tops could lose every game from hereonout. Because, well, we’ve seen it happen — they play well but can never pull away and have a chance at the end to win and, for whatever reason, don’t.

With that in mind, let’s think of this with the most likely scenario option: Charlotte and ODU should be wins. Full stop. Also, throw UTEP in there. So, three wins.

FIU and MT are straight toss ups. I think the Tops split these two.

FAU and La Tech are the two toughest games remaining on the schedule. FAU isn’t nearly as good as we thought they’d be entering the season and La Tech is a lot better than I thought they’d be. While I’m not saying “pencil these as losses,” don’t be shocked if that becomes the case.

So, if the season plays out like that, that’s four wins for a total of five. If they can sweep FIU and MT, that’s six and if they can upset either FAU and LT, that’s seven.

Alright, this is two questions in one so let’s tackle them one at a time.

First, the football question: I honestly don’t know, and that isn’t to cop-out of anything. I don’t know how much progression we’ll see from the combination of Davis Shanley and/or Steven Duncan in terms of being able to make key plays at key points and the ability to close the game. I don’t know if the running game will get off the ground. I don’t know if the offense will produce enough to allow the defense to make some mistakes and it not cost the Tops.

All of that said, refer to the question above: The schedule isn’t impossible, but a 1–4 hole is super deep to climb out of. Operating under what we’ve already established, I give the Tops a 30% chance (on your given 0–50% scale) to win five games and a 20–25% chance of getting that sixth win.

Now, to basketball! That WKU/Valpo matchup is super interesting but I think the Tops win.

As for the bracketology of the event, let’s say this;

• St. Josephs beats Wake

• UCF beats CSFU

• WKU over Valpo

• WVa over Monmouth

Setting up for SJU/UCF and WKU/WVa. The Tops/Mountaineers matchup is intriguing too, if nothing more for the fact of what will the Tops’ backcourt look like without Lamonte Bearden? With Washington and UT-Martin as the only two tests before Myrtle Beach, it’ll still be a little bit of figuring things out on the fly.

I can see the Tops making a good run at WVa but falling late but I can just as easily see the Tops playing as well as they did in Atlantis last year and making a run to the title game.

With the questions at point guard as of today, having not seen the squad in action, I’ll say a close loss to WVa.

St. Josephs and WVa will meat for the title, with the ‘Neers winning it all.

We’ll have to revisit this in a month.

Assuming Eckels is still out of commission (even if he returns to practice next week, are they going to have him start after missing four weeks?), I think this is Duncan’s job. There’s just another level of confidence the offense has with him under center — I can’t quite put my finger on it, but that’s how it’s always felt, even since the last couple of drives against Wisconsin.

However, I wouldn’t be surprised if it changes week to week, like it did from Louisville to Ball State to Marshall. There’s a lot to figure out and with things like bowl eligibility becoming less and less certain, I wouldn’t mind if Sanford uses this time to build for the future and see who’ll be the better fit for 2019 and beyond (even if that means using some of Kevaris Thomas in there, too).

I’ve got a joke answer and a real answer.

Joke answer: Play Charlotte and ODU in consecutive weeks. If you can do it post-bye, even better!

Real answer: Just got to finish, man. The last three loses have come via scores of 31–28, 20–17 and 20–17.

Two of those loses, the Tops lined up for a last-second field goal to force overtime. The third of those loses, the Tops had the ball inside the red zone and were looking good to punch it in before a turnover ended the game.

This was the point I was trying to make in the aftermath of the Marshall loss on Twitter and I know a lot of people either don’t or are choosing not to see it, but this team is so close to being able to post the results fans are wanting to and are used to seeing. They just have to figure out how to do it and once it clicks, we can put all of these bad times behind us.

Another answer that sounds like a cop out but I swear it isn’t; but both.

And, I argue, Sanford already has learned from some of his past mistakes (I don’t recall the Tops going for it on fourth down from their own 15 any time recently) and a lot of that comes with gaining experience as a head coach. He’s probably still finding his footing and you can’t really blame him, 20 games into his career (as hard as some people are).

But in some aspects, he isn’t going to change. Under Sanford, WKU is going to be (or, at least, is going to want to be and will not stop trying to be) a ground-and-pound team. That’s just how it’s going to be because that’s what HBCIC wants.

There are other examples but none are immediately coming to mind. But, you know what I mean. I guess the TL;DR answer is: Macro, yes; micro, no.

First of all, everyone welcome Greg to our writing staff! He’ll be our go-to guy for Topper baseball coverage.

Second of all, this is an interesting question that I’m not sure has a solid answer. I think WKU has done a fine job establishing themselves as one of the premier athletic programs in the conference. However, who is to say they couldn’t do that anywhere else?

I actually spoke with WKU athletic director Todd Stewart about “What about the MAC” the year it was announced the Tops were headed to C-USA, and he said that it was actually pretty close to happening.

In terms of WKU football, specifically, benefiting, I’m not sure. It’s arguably the most identifiable G5 conference (who isn’t up for some MACtion?) and they’ve even sent a G5 rep to a New Year’s 6 bowl. If Brohm’s teams were playing a MAC schedule over a C-USA schedule, who knows how that’d have increased their rankings.

And while the ESPN visibility is good, that isn’t as much an issue anymore with C-USA’s deal with ESPN+. It isn’t near as comprehensive, but it’s better than nothing.