Toledo Predictions: What Should WKU Sharpen up Before CUSA Play?
Roundtable: In addition to our normal score prediction, we ask our writers, "What does WKU need to sharpen with two more non-conference games to go before C-USA play?"
Western Kentucky’s offense looked amazing last week against top rival MTSU. Not even one full drive into the game, starting QB TJ Finley goes down and is carried off of the field baring zero weight on his right leg. Before the injury, WKU was moving the ball.
Then cue Caden Veltkamp.
That guy came in and was better than his magnificent 2023 Toastery Bowl performance. Veltkamp was all over the internet and college football wrap-up shows for his six total touchdowns, nearly 400 yards passing, and NINETY (yes, nine-zero) percent completion percentage. This will once against be another legendary performance in the Veltkamp vault. In his approximately 2.5 games in a WKU uniform, he has two magical performances off the bench.
WKU was a goal line fumble involving a weird fourth down fumble rule from dropping 56 on the Blue Raiders. WKU waltzed to an easy 49-21 victory. Western’s defense hung tough despite giving up significant yardage. WKU gave up several chunk plays, but the Tops ultimately kept MTSU off of the scoreboard with the exception of three scores, none of which brought MTSU within less than three touchdowns at any point in the game.
It has been announced that TJ Finley (lower leg) is out for “several weeks” according to WKU Head Coach Tyson Helton (shocking in itself that he would be so straightforward about injury news), and WKU fans are losing it excited that they finally get to see the local South Warren product (Veltkamp) make a start.
On top of the excitement, hopefully WKU fans grasp the quality of the upcoming opponent that is Toledo. Toledo is 3-0 and just beat Mississippi State by 24 points, really leading by more than that before MSU threw a couple of scores up on the scoreboard late. Even if MSU is the likely cellar dweller in the SEC, beating an SEC opponent two years removed from a nine season is a quality win for a non-Power Four school.
Toledo (3-0, 0-0 MAC) is a legitimate football team and is considered to be just as good as or better than WKU (2-1, 1-0 CUSA).
We always have our staff give us a game prediction, but we also ask them to give us some things they would like to see before WKU fully begins its CUSA schedule. Let’s see what everybody has to say about Toledo…
Predictions
Matt McCay (3-0)
I think this week is where the rubber meets the road in terms of our staff being able to forecast who wins this game. Surely a few of our staff will pick Toledo. WKU absolutely has its hands full. First of all, Toledo won the MAC regular season title last season, falling in the MAC championship game. They have expectations, they’re pissed about losing last year, and they’re going to be fired up to go on the road against a real test at WKU.
WKU showed some incredible offense last week. There’s no question they did just about everything they could have, lighting up the scoreboard for nearly half a century. But WKU still has plenty of question marks I would like to see answered before the Tops head fully into CUSA play after going to Boston College next week. The Tops get a bye week and then head back home to face the Miners of UTEP. I would like to see WKU lock in offensively and produce against a nationally good team. Both of the next two opponents present that opportunity, as both are receiving votes in the polls.
Western Kentucky really needs to shore up its defensive yards surrendered. Western’s defense is allowing 460 yards per game. One would think that’s solely to do with giving up 600 to Alabama, but in fact, WKU also gave up nearly 200 on the ground to EKU and gave up over 500 total and nearly 500 yards passing at MTSU. Yes, they show promise, but they have plenty more to work on.
Assuming we see more significant improvement in all three phases (special teams has been pretty average thus far, as well), this could be an incredible win for WKU against a legitimate opponent. Winning this one would probably garner some minor national attention. I doubt shockwaves would be sent all the way to the top of the ladder, but Group of Five circles would notice, and a few voters in the poll would take note, as well. I’m just not sure if I can bring myself to pick the Tops. I’m teetering back-and-forth on this one. Heck, the line came out as WKU favored by .5. It’s literally a coin flip according to Vegas. Since that opened, Toledo now sits at -2.5, a significant swing. I think WKU’s offense needs a few more weeks before it really declares itself nationally elite. The running game still needs to come along, although they showed some improvement. I think I’m going to have to say WKU loses this one, but I think it’s going to be a heck of a game, and I truly believe Western wins two out of five times these teams play. I think Toledo’s defense is too good, and their offense converts when they get into WKU territory. I expect some defensive stops in this one.
Give me Toledo 31-WKU 29.
Fletcher Keel (1-0)
Alex Sherfield (3-0)
As the game itself was being scheduled, it was well known that this upcoming matchup could grow to become very interesting.
After Toledo’s upset win on the road at Mississippi State, it’s not a shocker that most analysts would have the Rockets as a clear favorite going into Saturday. With that said, the Hilltoppers may have a chance to play spoiler over a MAC juggernaut.
Caden Veltkamp should be highly motivated in his first official start on The Hill after carving through MTSU last week and nabbing CUSA Player of the Week accolades. Saturday will challenge him and the Tops’ passing offense, as it’ll be a catalyst for success. Toledo’s defense is currently the best in the MAC, leading in quarterback sacks and forced turnovers. They’ve also allowed only 67 rushing yards from Mississippi State last week. Even if the running game becomes ineffective, I’m backing a strong performance from Veltkamp & his receivers.
If you’re enthusiastic about offensive showdowns, here’s to looking forward to a high-scoring game between both teams. Neither quarterback (including Toledo’s Tucker Gleason) has thrown an interception so far this season. Ball security will be emphasized as both pass defenses are looking for a signature performance in containing the quarterbacks.
Give me WKU 37, Toledo 31
Jacob Gary (3-0)
Toledo is a tough one to call. The beat the brakes off FCS opponent Duquesne, and beat the rebuilding Mississippi State team (still SEC) pretty good, too, including holding MSU to a pathetic offensive first half…but is that Toledo (being good) or Mississippi State (being bad)? The Bulldogs did the same thing against Arizona State and won by 24. Toledo beat UMASS By 15, despite UMASS outgaining them 384 yards to 258 and UMASS dominating time of possession by nearly 30 minutes. Toledo ran a kick back for a TD and had a 73 yard pass play for a TD in that game, displaying big play ability.
This is a good test to see where the Tops are at. The performance against Bama was disappointing, but doesn’t tell us much because Alabama is Alabama and looks like Alabama so far this season. WKU took care of business against EKU and MTSU. But they were supposed to. Veltkamp has an opportunity to prove he should be the starter here in my opinion. If Tops can win, and Veltkamp plays good, I think he takes over and Tops are en route to a 10 win season easily.
WKU 31-Toledo 30
I could easily see the Tops dropping this one, too. Toledo is a solid team, but as always, Go Tops!
Devin Stewart (3-0)
David McCay (3-0)
Defense needs to not give up so many big plays. Most of the big plays happen when Western blitzes and fails. That is noticeable since there are more big plays against the WKU defense than turnovers and sacks.
On the offensive side of the ball, the offensive line needs to open up bigger holes for the running backs, or the running backs need to use better vision. While the total rushing has been over 100 yards the past few weeks, there has only been a handful of rushes over 10 yards and one over 20. Some of these were against MTSU, so out of obligation, that may not count.
This is a shootout: WKU 45 - Toledo 41.
Bret Combest (3-0)
Conclusion
Finally, we’ve got just a bit of discord. Is this a little homer to mostly pick WKU over Toledo? Maybe.
But it’s also a reasonable conclusion. Toledo may not match up well with WKU. It’s difficult to say which way it goes, and that’s just because it’s a historically close game on paper. Heck, Caden Veltkamp could go wild for 500 yards and no turnovers and Toledo would have a heck of a time keeping up with that pace. Matt McCay is our lone Negative Nancy, and we’ll see if he proves accurate or curmudgeonly.
This is one of the most (hopefully) even matchups in a decade or more at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium. In our Family Dinner Table article, we mentioned how this is the closest non-conference spread in the modern history of Houchens-Smith. A non-conference matchup hasn’t been this when, Topper fans?
It wouldn’t be dramatic to say this is a historic matchup. Neither team should feel arrogant about their edge over the other. Both know they’re about even on paper. Games aren’t played on paper, and we’re not interested in this game because we get to watch them play “Rock, Paper, Scissors” and “Pattycake”. This could absolutely be a war, or granted, it could be a shocking blowout for either team and we’re either devastated or euphoric.
We don’t know, and that’s the beauty of it. What we do know is it’s going to be a beautiful day, it’s not going to be piping hot, and the sun will creep down slowly over The Hill during what should be a heck of a football game.
It should be perfect weather, and hopefully fans in the Bowling Green area will realize that they have the opportunity to go to one of the most juicy college football matchups of college football’s Week Four Saturday night.
Bowling Green, it’s time pack The Houch. Y’all. You’re crazy if you don’t find this one interesting. When do you get a conference champion to come in to your house and see how you measure up?
It’s time to ride with the Tops, and decommission the Rockets.
Show up, Bowling Green. And let’s BEAT TOLEDO!
It’s football time on The Hill, and the Tops have finally shown us they might be able to play some good ball this season. This is a measuring stick game. Win or lose, this one should be interesting to observe after it’s over. Make sure you start your new subscription with The Towel Rack and follow all of our articles!
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