Topper Baseball Starts CUSA Tournament Wednesday
A preview on WKU Baseball's chances in CUSA, what are some quick nuggets on WKU Baseball's regular season, bracket chances, overall title chances, and NCAA at-large hopes?
WKU Baseball starts tournament play today in Lynchburg, Virginia against the New Mexico State University Aggies. #2 seed WKU takes on #7 NMSU, a team the Tops swept with ease in Las Cruces a few weeks ago. On paper, this should be a nice warmup for the second round matchup against either FIU or Kennesaw State, who the Tops lost five of six to, all of them on the road.
Best Regular Season Ever?
WKU Head Coach Marc Rardin is clearly the biggest home run in WKU AD Todd Stewart’s hiring career. Other than hiring Michelle Clark-Heard, has any other Todd Stewart hire been as successful?
WKU Baseball has gone from a win total in the teens to winning 42 games and flirting with the most wins in program history in three seasons with Marc Rardin at the helm.
Although the overall season is not over, we can talk about the regular season resume. WKU sits in the 40s in RPI, is considered a true bubble team for the NCAA Tournament, and has its most ever wins before conference tournament time. Is this the best WKU team ever? One can certainly argue this is the best ever regular season team in the history of the program, although 1980, 1985, 2008, and 2009 may have something to say about that.
In terms of breaking records, if WKU were to win CUSA and make the finals of an NCAA regional or better, they could tie the overall season record mark at 47 wins.
WKU has half of its main players on All-Conference teams, took home many of the major team, individual, and coaching awards, and has garnered the overall two seed despite dropping a few series in the second half of the conference year.
At one point, WKU was ranked and was in the national conversation to host a regional, although that fizzled in the back half of the conference season and turned into the typical “really good mid-major” conversation: Does WKU deserve an at-large bid if they lose in the CUSA Tournament?
Regardless, an incredible regular season for the Tops
Previewing CUSA Tournament
WKU’s Pod
WKU has an interesting draw. Their first round seems to be a good matchup for them. WKU swept NMSU with complete ease. Not one of the game was difficult, none were close, and WKU had zero problem scoring. Obviously NMSU will come in motivated to prove that the Topper sweep on their home turf was a fluke. Don’t take them lightly, Tops.
The other teams on WKU’s side of the bracket are much more scary to the Tops. WKU plays the winner/loser of Florida International and Kennesaw State. WKU was swept by FIU, although each game was won by two runs, so perhaps a fluky performance from the Golden Panthers to take all three. Kennesaw State is a silent assassin, probably off the radar for most people in and out of conference. KSU took two of three against WKU at KSU, is the CUSA three seed in its first year, and is just as good (#53) as WKU (#48) in the RPI. WKU averaged less than five runs against KSU, losing 9-8, winning 4-1, and losing 8-2.
The 2-3-6-7 pod, if you will, is a double elimination format. If WKU (or whatever team) wins its first game, it will only need three wins to make the CUSA Championship. It would be ideal to keep winning and only play three games instead of possibly playing four or five just to get to the championship. Regardless of the details, as long as you don’t lose two before the championship game, you eventually advance to the championship. However, if you take five games to get there instead of the minimum three, how much does your pitching staff have left for your sixth game within four days’ time?
The Other Pod
#1 seed Dallas Baptist is lethal, possibly flirting with hosting an NCAA Regional and consensus nationally ranked With only six losses in CUSA, most of them coming very early on, DBU is the clear favorite to win and is probably monumentally pissed off that they did not win very many season awards and are not the consensus pick to win the conference tournament. They will have plenty of motivation.
#4 JSU is red hot and can pitch, having only lost four games in its last four series. Their bats have been hot as of late, as well. #5 La Tech is a team that started slow in the non-conference and faded some to end the year. In the middle of the year, though, they were one of CUSA’s most lethal teams.
#8 Liberty is DBU’s opponent, so God bless them. However, Liberty is #85 in the RPI and has several wins against ACC opponents. They should not be disrespected. Just because they did about as horrible as possible to fathom, they are the home team (keep that in mind) and they are lethal if they can keep it together.
This pod is loaded, and no team is less than #102 in the RPI. The other pod is much more lenient, with no team higher than #48 and two teams well outside of the top 100 in the RPI. NMSU is the clear outlier of all of the teams in the CUSA Tourney at #167.
If one was talking strategically about which pod you would rather be in, there’s no question, WKU’s pod is the pod with way more paths to the championship game.
Championship Game: Winner Take All
If WKU makes it to the championship, it will likely be by beating Kennesaw State twice in some form or fashion. KSU could somehow flunk out of the tournament , and WKU could either waltz into the championship, or they could take the hard road and somehow not face KSU. Regardless, the road almost certainly goes through KSU at least once. FIU is seemingly the other serious threat to WKU’s attempt to get to a CUSA Championship, and keep in mind, WKU must overcome one or two of their regular season bugaboos in FIU and KSU.
Regardless of how they get there, though, whoever makes it out of the 2-3-6-7 pod will face an RPI top 100 caliber team in the championship. DBU is the clear favorite to make it out, but they do face Liberty in the first round at Liberty. DBU did drop a game at Liberty just last week, so it’s absolutely possible DBU could have to claw its way to the championship. WKU was 2-1 vs DBU, 1-2 vs. JSU, 3-0 at Liberty, and 3-0 vs. La Tech. Although the other pod should be the tougher pod, whoever comes out of the other side will be someone WKU has some confidence against.
Keys to a WKU Championship Victory in Lynchburg
Stay in the Winner’s Bracket
There’s no question the winner’s bracket is the way to win the pod, and it will put you in the best position with your field players and your pitchers.
Rardin’s Management Skills
Everything Marc Rardin does needs to be gold. If he makes a crazy decision to bunt with two strikes and two outs or something wild, it better work. If he starts Drew Whalen or Lucas Hartman in game one, does he find a way to save them for later in the tournament? Should he play them later?
How does he manage Cal Higgins’ workload? Who does he have pinch hit? Who does he have sub for a slow runner and does that work out? Rardin has multiple seasons’ worth of college baseball tournament experience. Does it pay off this year?
Jack Bennett’s Health
WKU ace Jack Bennett pulled a hamstring warming up Thursday vs. JSU and it really changed the complexion of WKU’s series vs. JSU, but also brought the pitching depth into question for WKU. If he can go, can he be effective? Or can he at least eat up some innings? If he doesn’t play at all, that severely (pun intended) hamstrings the top tier Topper options in Lynchburg.
Wideman Needs to Show Up
Ryan Wideman is a monster, and if that monster doesn’t show up, how does WKU get through four to six games in five days? It’s difficult to see. Wideman doesn’t necessarily have to be superhuman, but he needs to get on base, he needs to score, and he needs to field it well in centerfield.
WKU Bullpen Needs to Step Up
Mike Reynolds, former Topper and WKU color announcer on the Varsity App with Randy Lee Saturday, said WKU’s bullpen depth concerned him. And it’s true. WKU’s pitching was sub-2.00 ERA for half of the season, but as the schedule toughened, that number climbed above 3.00. And the sub-1.00 ERA’s disappeared and climbed upward. It’s a valid concern. WKU’s bullpen will need to win or at least not completely blow at least one game, and it’s possible they may need to win two.
Secondary Stars Need to Be Their Normal or Better
Kyle Hayes, Drew Whalen, Carlos Vasquez, Lucas Hartman, and Cal Higgins need to show up. Baseball is not just one man dragging his team to victory when it comes to needing four or five wins. There must be someone else, and the guys that may not get every bit of the focus but generally are main actors on the team are the ones that have to do their thing. If they don’t, the team is screwed unless literally everyone else plays out of their mind.
Two Role Players Need to be Heroes
Speaking of everyone else, like All-Freshmen Reid Howard and Taylor Penn, Austin Haller, Lucas Litterall, Cam Ross, Ethan Lizama, Joe Siervo, Caleb Marmo, Dalton Fiveash, and others, someone from the rest of the roster needs to step up and have a moment or several moments. Reid Howard’s defense and power hitting comes to mind. Can Lucas Litterall come in and be heroic despite a rough season overall? Caleb Marmo often is Rardin’s go-to pinch hitter. Siervo, Lizama, Ross, and Haller all have shown star moments in their WKU careers.
Two of these guys need to be top tier Toppers this week.
At-Large Chances
WKU seems to be right on the bubble, despite stumbling significantly against KSU (not good), JSU (bad timing), and FIU (disastrous). They should not be concerned with this until after the tournament is over (if they lose), but WKU is right there. Interestingly, opinions differ significantly between outfits like the PEARatings who see WKU barely as a bubble team and fairly comfortably in, to outfits that seem to think WKU is definitely out of the serious part of the conversation regardless.
The history of the numbers suggest WKU is likely out of the hunt. Very few bubble teams have made it with sub-100 Strength of Schedule numbers (WKU well outside the top 100 in all ratings in SOS). However, WKU has been one of the main mid-major programs with a ton of eyeballs this year, receiving votes in nearly every Coaches Poll this season. Will their reputation this season along with the clear fact that they are a tournament worthy team with quality performances get them in?
Tune In
Regardless of anything, it’s time to support the Tops. If you can make it to Lynchburg, awesome. If you can’t, tune in to ESPN+ for all CUSA Tournament games. Tune in to CBS Sports Network Sunday at 1 PM for the championship game.
It’s time to go get a ring, Tops.
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