Topper Baseball Steals Series vs MTSU, Will Battle La Tech for Chance at CUSA Title
Statistically, Western Kentucky may not have had the prettiest series against rival MTSU, but the Tops won where it counted, taking two of three and setting up a four horse race for Conference USA.
Hilltopper Baseball has created quite the buzz this season, flirting with the possibility of only the fifth 40 win season in program history, dreaming of only the fifth NCAA Tournament appearance, and having just notched its fifth conference series win in six tries.
Western Kentucky may not have a prayer of an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament, but this team is clearly firing on all cylinders late in the season. Losers of only four games in the month of April, the Toppers have turned what was a somewhat pedestrian overall record into an absolutely sparkling 31-14 overall. In one of the NCAA’s better baseball conferences, WKU currently sits with the most conference wins and is in control of its own destiny with two CUSA series to play.
WKU Recovers from Friday Loss, Steals Series at Middle
In a stunningly awful 1.2 innings of work, Jack Bennettt gave up ten runs, nine of which were earned, and WKU couldn’t score enough to catch up from that hole. Western would go on to lose 16-9. Cole Heath, Cal Higgins, and Patrick Morris would all give up more runs than full innings pitched, with Coby Moe the lone successful Topper hurler.
Clearly WKU needed to just flush the Friday result and get on with the next game. Well, honestly, a similar start to Friday’s game, the Tops came out on Saturday and dug a three run hole. Saturday starter Jacob Bimbi had trouble and settled down after the first three runs. WKU’s pitching would absolutely shut down Middle after the first inning, not surrendering a single run. WKU would use a timely double from Camden Ross to squeak out a 4-3 lead that superstar closer Mason Burns would help the Tops hold onto. Two games in, WKU was a blowout and a 3-0 hole from losing the series by the end of Saturday.
On Sunday, the Tops would take a more traditional path. In a back-and-forth game where Middle started out with a lead for the third time in the series, the Tops would respond with two runs. Then Middle would not be outdone, retying the game at 2-all and then nearly coming back even by the end of the sixth inning. WKU would get an insurance run in the seventh and eighth, once again trotting out the nation’s leading closer, Mason Burns. Burns would allow one man on base, but seconds later, MTSU’s Grant Snider grounded into a double play, and the game was suddenly over in a 7-4 WKU victory.
With the Series Win…
WKU clinches spot in the CUSA Tournament (the first CUSA school to do so this season)
WKU Guarantees itself a chance to win CUSA Regular Season
WKU puts rival MTSU on the brink of missing CUSA Tournament
WKU wins a series against MTSU for the first time since 2017
“Does WKU Have a Chance for an At-Large Bid?”
No.
WKU is 90th in the RPI with only one scheduled series against a Top 100 team (La Tech) remaining. Although WKU has several really nice wins and a winning record in every possible split, the Tops’ overall schedule was very weak, and some early season throwaway losses really hurt the Tops (Purdue-Fort Wayne, Bradley, Milwaukee, and SEMO, MTSU) on top of not cashing in big on some more of the opportunities they did have (Murray, UK, Louisville, FIU, West Virginia, DBU).
There is absolutely no way WKU gets into the NCAA Tournament without winning the CUSA Tournament. We posted a tweet that got some attention in and out of the program about an at-large bid. To clarify, that was simply saying it was nice to be in the national conversation. WKU Baseball is not the joke of CUSA anymore. WKU is a force to be reckoned with, and the Tops will be one of three main favorites come tournament time: La Tech, DBU, and WKU.
UNC Asheville Series
Although a non-conference series against a bad team, this is huge for the timing of this season. WKU has survived on guts and coaching the last month. Despite an incredible record, the Tops’ entire last month of wins were by no more than three runs. It’s clear WKU could get in a funk and start going the opposite direction.
I’m sure WKU Head Coach Marc Rardin is looking to figure out some kind of combination of rest for key players, keeping momentum, and getting the Topper offense firing on all cylinders while getting the pitching staff’s confidence back after some rough outings in the last two weeks.
La Tech Series
Next weekend (May 10-12), in a battle for most of the marbles, if WKU sweeps La Tech, they would be standing no worse than tied for first with DBU (with a tiebreaker in hand) and two games ahead of La Tech with three games to play. However, in the (nobody panic) more likely scenario of the two, if WKU got swept by La Tech in Ruston, the Tops could immediately fall into fourth place, be guaranteed no better than second, and could theoretically fall as low as sixth by the end of the season.
La Tech is a legitimate baseball program with a legitimate baseball fan base. La Tech is 23-5 at home for a reason and sitting at 8-8 on the road. They are completely different away from home, but they won’t be. And they won’t be in the CUSA Tournament, which just so happens to be in Ruston, Louisiana, this season. They will be loud, and if they go into the series with a one game lead, it will feel like closing time for them, just needing to slam the door on the Tops and claim a nearly locked in one seed at that point.
La Tech does play at New Mexico State, a team with a 13-10 record at home as opposed to 8-13 on the road before getting to the Tops, so the picture may change between now and then. However, regardless, this is a massive series, and no matter the outcome of the NMSU series for La Tech, either team could end up in first by the time they finish the series on May 12.
Explaining the CUSA Race
Western Kentucky is 100% in charge of its own destiny. The only other team that can say that in this race is La Tech, who also could win the rest of its conference games and gain the number one seed in the CUSA Tournament. Dallas Baptist is the other serious threat. Sitting at five losses, DBU did lose series to both La Tech and WKU. However, La Tech and WKU need a combined three losses in 15 total remaining games for DBU to leapfrog both of them for the conference championship.
In addition, two other teams sit with remote chances to win CUSA’s regular season: Liberty and FIU. However, these two seem uncapable and need massive amounts of help. Liberty does not quite control its own destiny, but interestingly, if they were to win out against FIU, DBU, and La Tech, regardless of other results, they would only need WKU to lose two of its final six to steal the CUSA crown. Now, my goodness, it would be a Herculean type of accomplishment to do so. Not only does Liberty play nine CUSA games against quality competition, two of which could earn at-large bids in the NCAA Tournaent, but even in their midweek games, they face Top 100 competition. They do not get a break from here on out. Although they technically have a shot, will a team with an overall losing record suddenly sweep through CUSA on a warpath and still get the help they need? Doubtful.
FIU is the other possible winner of CUSA, but they really need assistance. With only two series left, they need to win out and hope their tiebreakers against WKU and La Tech somehow come into play. They’re still within four games, so it’s possible, especially when they play one of the other four teams. Nonetheless, they need WKU to lose three of six, La Tech to lose four of nine, and DBU to lose four of nine in addition to needing to win their final six games. They’re really trying to just move up in the standings.
After FIU, everyone is within four games of each other at the bottom, and one unlucky soul just doesn’t get to compete for a championship. Jacksonville State has the biggest hill to climb at two games out of eighth placed Middle Tennessee. Sam Houston and NMSU should be in, but a late season losing streak could allow JSU to squeak into the field.
If you can’t make it to Asheville or to the Nick next Tuesday, as always, tune in to @ TheTowelRackWKU on Twitter/X, and tune in to @ RedoutPodcast for our video content, as well as secondary content, and of course, WKU’s longest running podcast.
GO TOPS!