Topper Fans: Does WKU Beat Seattle U, KWC, and Michigan?
Prediction Roundtable: We ask our staff to weigh in on WKU Basketball's chances to finish 2024
Western Kentucky Basketball is 7-3, and hopefully Bowling Green is going to start to take notice…any time now…please? I mean, come on, y’all. Show up to Diddle. This team is legit, and they need and deserve Bowling Green’s support.
They face an interesting stretch to end the non-conference portion of the season, and the Tops have massively improved from its opening stretch of three losses (two that counted) to start the season. Although all three of those teams were worthy opponents, WKU is much better defensively now and probably would stand a much better chance against all three, especially considering all three games were potentially within reach if things were just a little bit different.
WKU vs. Seattle University, Tuesday December 17 at 6 PM
WKU’s opponent, Seattle University, is another WAC opponent stemming from the CUSA/WAC Challenge agreement. This has been a really good alliance, and great games that boost and bolster resumes have been produced. Most recently, La Tech handled Grand Canyon in a good ballgame, announcing themselves as a legit team in CUSA come January (if they hadn’t already).
Seattle is a team that at first, you look down upon. Who?!? But they are legit. You also look at their record (4-6) and think…yeah Western should ice this cupcake and call it a Christmas celebration. However, Seattle U is good, and they absolutely pose a matchup nightmare for the Tops. Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe is 6’8” 214 and is averaging a double-double. This will be one of the best post players WKU will face all year, and it just so happens that Babacar Faye is doubtful to play against the Redhawks the continental US’ northwesternmost state.
WKU’s backup to the backup Leeroy Odiahi needs to be able to contribute, and Enoch Kalambay may start at center. Maybe Tyrone Marshall, Jr., sees some action down low, and who knows? Maybe Blaise Keita comes back at some point. Regardless, this is an interesting matchup to have 2024-25’s (arguably) best player go down to injury.
At the end of the day, WKU should win, but will they?
WKU vs. Kentucky-Wesleyan, Saturday December 21 at 2 PM
An often-played opponent for WKU in the last two decades from Owensboro, Kentucky-Wesleyan is a really good Division II program that has given WKU headaches at times. This should be a tune-up game for WKU before they head to Michigan the Sunday after Christmas, but the Tops should not sleep on an opponent that has some bite that will treat the Tops like the Goliath they are to a Division II opponent. At 7-2 overall, KWC is not a bad basketball team. KWC may not have the talent level of the Tops, but they will be about as big as WKU, especially if Babacar Faye is still not available. They pose some matchup issues and could hang with the Tops.
WKU at Michigan, Sunday December 29 at 7 PM
Now ranked, Michigan at home is a scary prospect for the Tops. Even without injury concerns and Christmas turkey hangovers on top of an eight day layoff, the Tops are in for a real test in Ann Arbor. WKU may be the most equipped for a test like this in years, but this would be a win that would go on the Mount Rushmore of recent wins for the Tops. Other than winning the Conference USA Tournament championship last year, beating a ranked Michigan team in a true road game would catch national attention for the program for the first time in years.
Michigan averages over 80 and gives up 65 per game thus far, dropping two games by one possession. Before WKU, they will have played #14 Oklahoma and Purdue-Fort Wayne, also having a full week off since their last matchup. Michigan will either be top 20, or they may have fallen slightly out of the rankings. Regardless, they’re good enough and a Power Five team in a sold out arena. What an opportunity for the Tops to announce themselves as national players once more!
Staff Predictions
Matt McCay
I think Western is going to struggle without a healthy Babacar Faye. Even if he plays, he will be a shell of himself. If he doesn’t, minutes will need to be played with an unproven offensive asset in Enoch Kalambay, an out-of-position and undersized Tyron Marshall, or a raw huge body intended to be a backup in Leeroy Odiahi.
Seattle is a terrible matchup with Faye out. Otherwise, I absolutely pick the Tops. KWC should be a win no matter what, and Michigan was a difficult size and athleticism issue before the Faye injury.
Seattle 78-WKU 73
WKU 96-KWC 67
Michigan 82-WKU66
Alex Sherfield
The next three weeks before conference play starts are now more pivotal than before. With the recent injury news to Babacar Faye, it’s a comfort knowing that it’s week to week rather than a season ending loss. Depth will be heavily relied on to finish out this stretch in Faye’s absence.
Seattle University W 81-73
Kentucky Wesleyan W 95-60
Michigan L 72-54
Jake Gary
12/17 home vs Seattle U:
Tops are coming off an emotional victory vs Murray State, and Seattle U is coming off their best performance of the year vs a team that only has one game listed on the ESPN app. 4-6 Seattle U shouldnt pose too much of a problem for the Tops, but the Tops cant get lazy in this game. Seattle U does have a guy that averages a double double in Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe. Still expect the Tops to win by a decent margin. I’ll call it 81-69, Tops win.
12/21 home vs KY Wesleyan:
This should be a tune up game and nothing more. Not much to say here other than a must win and must win big game for the Tops. 91-61 Hilltopper W in this game. Expect to see some players deep in the bench get some minutes.
12/29 at Michigan:
Tops will be tested by a ranked team for the second time this year. Michigan has some impressive showings so far this year. They have two ranked wins and their only two losses are to Wake Forest and Arkansas by a combined 4 points. Tops lost to UK by 19, the only other ranked team they’ve played. I think the spread will open up somewhere around 9-10 points in this game. Depending on if Tops get Faye back, the Tops may be able to beat the spread. But if not? Michigan might put a similar performance that UK did. I’ll give the score, 78-71 Michigan over the Tops.
Devin Stewart
WKU is gonna lose to Seattle, WKU will beat KWC, and lose to Michigan.
Starbucks U 82-71
WKU 86-65 over KWC
Michigan 87-76
David McCay
If Baba plays, we win two of three, playing Michigan tough but falling short. If Baba is injured, we lose two of three and get killed by Michigan.
L vs. Seattle
W vs. KWC
L at Michigan
Bret Combest
I think we will win tonight against Seattle, win against Kentucky-Wesleyan on Saturday, and lose against Michigan
W vs. Seattle
W vs. KWC
L at Michigan
Conclusion
KWC and Michigan are pretty much locks, but the Babacar Faye injury (and Khristian Lander and Blaise Keita being banged up) really has us spooked. I bet before Faye was injured and Lander went off limping, this would’ve been a lot more positive, especially against Seattle. I bet you somebody would’ve either picked WKU outright over Michigan, or somebody would’ve said WKU lost at the last second after leading the whole.
Notsomuch with Faye out. Now, WKU swings in the other direction. Any other injury could’ve been absorbed with other capable players, but Faye being injured is a massive loss for the Tops and completely irreplaceable.
Hopefully, Babacar gets healthy, the Tops survive Seattle and KWC, and he comes back ready to beat Michigan and start conference play with a bang against two extremely good CUSA opponents.
The main thing right now is health heading into Conference USA play. The Tops may be playing for a bid in the NIT as a backup to winning CUSA, but they are extremely unlikely to actually get an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. So pack in the tents in terms of playing anyone who is not 100 percent until conference play—and maybe even a week after conference play starts—and let’s hit the ground running and go find a way to win a championship in March.
These games are interesting, but they most likely will not prove essential or even meaningful. Don’t lose sight of the fact that it’s about conference play, getting a bye in the tournament, and going back to the Big Dance healthy and ready to make a run.
That’s what it’s alllll about, baby. GO TOPS!
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