Tops face 3-6 Bulldogs for Homecoming, Look to Solidify CUSA Position
Family Dinner Table: Can WKU continue their winning ways and score enough points against a very good La Tech defense? Bowl eligible once again, WKU's 2024 roster sets its sights on bigger goals.
Western Kentucky comes into their Homecoming game at 7-2 and winners of four straight conference games. La Tech is a good team, especially defensively but turnovers cause them problems, giving up the ball 18 times (11 fumbles and 7 interceptions). Will WKU thrill the fans on Homecoming, or will La Tech play spoiler as they tend to do?
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account. Every once in a while, those bricks clank against the backboard and find their way into the bucket. Most often, it probably looks like you in your backyard shooting it off of the gutters of your house, Jackie Moon.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
Before and after each game, Matt and David will put their own spins on their thoughts on the matchup. In a preview article, they’ll talk about what they see, whatever that may be, whether it’s about the food at the stadium, fan experience, roster depth, or big picture football thoughts. One will go and then the other. In a postgame article, they will react with whatever vitriol or euphoria they feel at the time.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck and their wives grabbing their arm telling them to shut up because you’re embarrassing them, this one’s for you.
Papa McCay’s Observations on La Tech
The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs come into Saturday’s contest averaging 23 points per game and giving up 21.9 points per game, but have a 3-6 record. Their problems come from three things: Sacks (31), turnovers (18), and penalties (49). Otherwise, La Tech’s offensive and defensive units are good enough to win more games, scoring 26 TDs and kicking eight field goals. Plus, the defense averages holding teams to around 300 yards per contest. If the Bulldogs can correct their problem areas and maintain offensive and defensive production against a good, possibly great WKU squad, they could play spoiler this weekend. Western has played down to bad teams and up for good teams, so which squad will WKU put on the field this weekend?
La Tech players have thrown for 2,256 yards and 16 TDs this season, which is close to Western’s 2,587 yards and 22 TDs. Evan Bullock #7 leads their quarterback with 1,452 yards on 123 of 185 passing for 12 TDs, only two interceptions, but has been sacked 23 times. The Bulldogs have rushed for 923 yards and 10 TDs, which is also behind WKU’s 1,152 yards and 12 TDs. LaTech is led by Omiri Wiggins #22 with 71 rushes for 281 yards and a TD. Interestingly, former Tennessee and WKU wide receiver, Jimmy Holiday #6, has 33 rushes for 157 yards and four TDs. The receiving corps is led by Tru Evans #16 with 52 receptions for 708 yards and six TDs.
The Bulldog defense is stingy, giving up just over 300 yards per contest and only 21.9 points per game as mentioned above. Along the way, amassing 15 sacks and 11 or 12 turnovers (discrepancy on fumbles across multiple platforms). Regardless, the defense is very good.
LaTech will run and pass just about evenly (338 Rushes to 297 passes) if you look at those ratios (1.14 rushes for every 1 pass). You would expect that to be the case on Saturday. From a special teams perspective, the Bulldog punter and kicker are below average in the conference, so WKU should have an advantage there in this game given that the Tops have excellent special teams units.
Western Kentucky Notables
WKU now averages scoring 30.3 points per game and gives up 22.1 points per contest. Caden Veltkamp #10 leads all quarterbacks with 1,950 yards on 149-213 (70%), 19 TDs, 7 rushing TDs, 7 Interceptions, several fumbles, and has been sacked 15 times. Elijah Young #3 is the feature running back with 133 rushes for 533 yards and two TDs, plus 26 catches for 247 yards and another TD. Kisean Johnson #0 remains the leader in the receiving corps with 46 catches for 645 yards and 5 TDs. Western’s defense has gathered 18 turnovers (9 fumbles and 9 interceptions) and 18 sacks. They will need to continue to exploit these weaknesses this weekend against a La Tech team that has trouble holding onto the ball and allows more than two sacks per game.
Final Thoughts About LaTech vs WKU
WKU’s offense should prove, once again, to be better than La Tech’s defense. The Hilltopper defense should find a way to limit one aspect (passing or rushing) of the La Tech offense, continue to cause havoc in the backfield of the Bulldogs, and generate turnovers. Western must find La Tech’s weaknesses and exploit them to win this game. Turnovers, penalties, and sacks will play a big part. Whichever team can cause the other to make mistakes, will win. Unless I miss my guess, this is not a game WKU can give up 400+ yards and win, either. I believe Western gets ahead of La Tech and holds on to win, 38-21 WKU. GO TOPS!!!
HEY!! It is Homecoming against a good team that as Matthew points out plays close games against all opponents. Time to fill LT Smith Stadium.
Young Buck McCay’s Rebuttals
This is really ramping up. The quality is higher, every team is better than it was a few months ago, and lots of teams are fighting for their lives. La Tech is one of those teams that has something to play for. Not technically eliminated from bowl contention, they are salivating at a chance to salvage a good season, win three in a row here, and go bowling. They’re probably pretty frustrated with themselves for letting Jacksonville State fall through their clutches.
Western Kentucky, meanwhile, is sitting at 7-2 overall and 5-0 in Conference USA play. They have plenty to play for. They are working on an undefeated CUSA campaign. They are positioning for a championship run. They are positioning for a shot at a national ranking by year’s end. They are looking to win a championship, go to a bowl game, and win it.
All in due time, Tops.
For now, they better not be thinking about the beach in December. They need to be think about La Tech, because I see a legit opponent staring back.
Sonnie Cumbie May be a Joke…
But La Tech is not. La Tech’s defense barely allows 300 total yards per game. Offensively, they have a receiver who flirts with 100 yards per game. They have several running backs that they use, including a former WKU player that left for a reason. Players playing their former team are always motivated. The quarterback is capable enough. And in case you’re thinking that this is a 3-6 pushover, La Tech is within four total scores of being undefeated in Conference USA and a 7-2 record. Every game, they’ve been in it or they’ve won it (in Conference USA play).
The Championship Picture
Again, this one is huge. If you win this one, no matter how everything else goes, you have a cushion to lose at least one game of your last two. You lose this one, and you probably need to win both of your last two games. Liberty hangs by a thread, but if they win their final two, they could sneak into the championship game. Sam Houston also controls its own destiny and can seal a spot by winning its final three games. Jacksonville State will host if they win all of the rest of their games.
Veltkamp Must Be Solid
WKU QB Caden Veltkamp has to take care of the football against La Tech. La Tech’s QB, Evan Bullock, really takes care of the ball, having only thrown two interceptions compared to 12 touchdowns. For perspective, 6-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio is Zappe-White-Doughty level in their prime good. He may not throw as many dimes, but he’s a really smart guy that takes care of the ball and can throw it well enough to do damage.
Against a guy like that, you just can’t hand him three turnovers or something like that. That alone could sink you. When the other guy doesn’t make mistakes, you can’t trot out there looking like a freshman and throw the ball straight into the opponent’s hands.
Keys to Victory
Two or More Sacks
Does the number really matter? No. Two plays a game does not make. However, two sacks would be a sign that the Tops probably got significant pressure on La Tech for a good portion of the snaps. Last week, the Tops had zero, and they had very few TFL’s. It’s time to get back right and blow up the line of scrimmage. This is an opportunity to run up some sack totals against a statue of a QB and an offensive line that can’t help its team move the ball.
Decisively Win Special Teams
Where’s one of the bigger mismatches? Special teams! Now picture this: In a close game, La Tech, who normally punts less than 40 all of a sudden averages 50. In addition, WKU misses two field goals and La Tech makes three. Clearly, bucking the bad trend would be a good thing for the underdog. Tops need to win special teams. It would be difficult to see La Tech, a team who struggles to score, have even more obstacles to get home to pay dirt.
Third Down and Red Zone
WKU was not great at either of these defensively last week. That allowed NMSU to stay on the field and continue several drives that ultimately resulted in touchdowns. If WKU can put itself in good down and distance and then pin their ears back, they could absolutely devastate the Bulldogs. However, if they get beat on third down, if they allow touchdowns instead of field goals, and if they allow La Tech to hang around, they better watch out.
400 Yards of Offense
La Tech is a tough defense, so asking for much more than 400 yards is realistic. If WKU can’t get 400 yards, methinks they could be in a dogfight. They could maybe get away with a little less, but the Tops need to be their usual selves against La Tech. This offense is not elite, so it’s a tougher ask to find 400 yards of offense. That’s not a gimme. And it doesn’t matter how they get them. If the Tops can’t run the ball, fine. Find a way to gain some yards through the air. If they can’t pass, get some yards on the ground. If WKU gets 400 yards, I see La Tech struggling to keep up because of their own issues.
Ride the Red Wave
It’s homecoming, and the Tops should have a good crowd on hand, alums that haven’t been back in decades will be excited to see all the new stuff on campus, and good times should be had by all. More importantly, the Tops are back home and in the comfortable confines of the Houch. Bring the energy, lay the wood, and get done what you know you should.
Prediction
I’ll be honest:
This matchup sucks for La Tech. Although the previous few games have been against lesser opponents, the last three opponents have had running quarterbacks that could pass. La Tech has a one dimensional quarterback, so life gets a lot easier. In addition, La Tech really does have trouble running the ball.
Well, what does WKU do well? Forcing a team to be one dimensional. Taking advantage of matchups. Offensively, the Tops generally can score at least 20, even if it’s the worst effort possible. If WKU can score in the mid-20s and certainly 30s, where does La Tech find the points?
The Bulldogs struggle on special teams, so there’s not much help there. They struggle to run the ball, so that makes life difficult. They turn the ball over way too much.
Again, WKU is good at combatting all of these things.
I hate to be a complete Pollyanna here, but I sincerely see one of WKU’s best outings of the year. I think the offense explodes against a defense mentally fragile from a meltdown against Jacksonville State. I think the defense is frustrated about last week’s performance, and the Bulldog offense plays right into their strengths.
I’m going out on a limb, because this is really bucking against tendencies by both teams to pick this type of score. But I’m doing it.
Tops by 90, baby.
WKU 48-La Tech 13
Conclusion: Tops Set up Epic Final Two Weeks With Routine Victory
This WKU team has instilled confidence in us all year. There’s really no reason to doubt them, and they’re in pretty good shape. They’re actually getting back some injured players here in the next few weeks, and they still have their depth intact, unlike last year. Last year was more difficult to believe in. This year, it feels like no doubt that they will not be dethroned unless the other team just outclasses them with something incredible.
We don’t see La Tech doing that, and it’s because WKU is just so solid. La Tech is formidable and threatening. They could win this one. But WKU is going to have to lay an egg. And on top of that, La Tech would need to play lights out in at least two phases of the game.
We come expecting greatness, Tops.
It’s now the home stretch of Conference USA season in football, basketball is finally here, Volleyball just wrapped up CUSA play and prepping for the postseason, and the Topper fall calendar is in full swing.
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GO TOPS!!!!