Tops Heading to Huntsville Needing Four Wins in Five Days, Play FIU Tuesday
MBB: WKU settled into the 7th seed in the Conference USA Tournament after getting burned by the Liberty Flames on Saturday. The Tops turn the page, needing to find a way to win four in a row.
Western Kentucky Basketball is finished with its regular season, and it’s certainly a mixed bag between reasonable excuses and pretty significant disappointment in terms of how the regular season worked out in 2024-25. Now, all of that “boohoo” mumbo jumbo doesn’t matter to a hill of beans to the players and staff. They’re looking to go win a championship, they are the defending champs, and they have enough to be competitive against anyone in CUSA within the confines of any one game. So go find a way to win one game every day, right?
Now, of course the juxtaposition to that Pollyanna position would be that WKU is down seven players. Yes, freaking seven. And at least four, if not as many as six, all would have played even if every player on the roster was healthy. At least three would have started, and four or five could have been part-time starters. Certainly, if any one of the seven were available, they probably would have taken some minutes given how shorthanded the Tops have been. Three were announced after the season began as being out for the rest of the season. Four started that way, with two of them having unanticipated complications from previous injuries.
So there’s that issue, on top of the fact that other minor injuries and two players violating team rules have only allowed four Toppers to have played all 31 games thus far. All told, WKU sits currently without two double digit scorers from this current season, both of which were probably going to end up with All CUSA honors and consequently struggles on offense every couple of games.
Again, regardless, the Tops have an interesting road to a championship. As Toppers, we know four games can be won in a conference tournament, as the Tops did it back-to-back years in 2012 and 2013. Those were won in the Sun Belt Conference, where the Tops had to win four games in four days. In CUSA, the way that it’s set up the past two seasons lends a hand and gives them a day off in the middle of the tournament due to there only being one court available at Propst Arena in Huntsville, Alabama. That means men’s and women’s quarterfinal games get split up into two days with four games played each day.
Could WKU benefit from a day’s rest, assuming they could beat FIU and upset Jacksonville State in the quarterfinals? That would be an interesting case study if the Tops find a way to win their first two.
What Happened Last Week?
First off, let’s remind you how we got here. WKU came into the week needing two wins and some help to find a way to climb another spot in the Conference USA Tournament seeding and avoid the first round 7-10 matchup. They had FIU, who the Tops now face in the aforementioned 7-10 matchup, and then they had the first place Liberty Flames on Senior Day Saturday.
As mentioned, WKU needed at least one game and most likely two heading into the week, and they didn’t get it. WKU got up pretty solidly on FIU before allowing the Panthers to come back, be only up one at halftime, and actually trailed by five early in the second half. From down five, the Tops went +14 the rest of the way, but the most concerning thing with FIU vs. WKU this season has been WKU’s absolute inability to rebound the basketball against the school from Miami, FL. FIU’s length and athleticism gives WKU fits, and the Tops have massive trouble securing the boards against anyone, but especially against FIU.
Then came the biggest bummer of the season, an absolute tsunami from Liberty, who led WKU by 36 with 5:19 left Saturday. The Tops went +7 from there to finish losing by a final score of 90-61. Of course, it has left most Topper fans with a sense of dread/apathy heading into the conference tournament, and rightfully so. WKU has not looked good down the stretch, winning two in a row once since the beginning of February, getting beaten by double digits in seven of ten conference losses and in all four of their most recent losses. They only had two double digit wins of their eight conference wins.
The Bracket
The top six seeds receive byes in the CUSA Tournament. The bottom four teams play each other in the first round Tuesday, March 11, and then quarterfinal play takes place over the next two days. The clear top three favorites would have to be Liberty, Jacksonville State, and Liberty, who have been the clear three best teams in the league. However, all of them have mysterious losses and are not considered absolute favorites. Liberty and JSU both had 6+ game winning streaks in conference play.
After the top three, it stands to reason nearly anyone else could make a run besides FIU. FIU can definitely win a game, especially considering how well they match up with WKU, but it would be mind-boggling if they made it to the semifinals. Every other team has good players or good pedigree or both.
WKU’s Road to the Championship
We’ve already covered some of the pros and cons with WKU, but strategically, WKU probably has the worst draw they could possibly have. Of the teams playing in the first round, FIU is absolutely the one team that WKU struggles for no tangible reason against. WKU has handed FIU one of its ten overall wins and flirted with getting swept by CUSA’s clear worst team.
If the Tops get past them, they get Jacksonville State, who is coached by Ray Harper, former WKU assistant and head coach that led WKU to the two straight “four games in four days” championships over a decade ago. Jacksonville State has CUSA’s best player (Jaron Pierre), CUSA’s most proven coach (Ray Harper), and plenty of firepower that could drown the Tops if they’re not fully on. Now, on one hand, perhaps JSU may be the best matchup (purely how they stack up strategically and not referring to the quality of the team itself) of all of their four most likely matchups to a championship. The Tops had legitimate shots to win both games vs. JSU, which is not true for nearly all of the rest of the conference.
Then it’s likely MTSU, who the Tops really struggle with. On top of the fact that it’s a rough matchup, WKU absolutely embarrassed MTSU last season in the semifinals when Middle looked like the team playing the best basketball heading into that game. They almost certainly feel like WKU robbed them of a championship last season and assuming WKU makes it through the first two games, the Blue Raiders will not come in for a nice, casually contested game of pickup basketball. If WKU found say to win, it would be because they earned it and didn’t get it handed to them like the perfect storm that was last year.
Finally, it’s likely Liberty the Tops face in the finals. A brutal gauntlet, and if the Tops somehow make it through under whatever combination of teams they face, it will be one of the most monumentally impossible runs in school history. I believe a four-game win with seven players and much better teams would absolutely topple either of the Ray Harper era championship runs for sure.
This is a brutal gauntlet. If I was to pick teams that scare me from a WKU perspective, I would have probably picked these four. Of the teams I would feel least scared of, I would say UTEP, Sam Houston, and Kennesaw State, and all of those are on the other side of the bracket and unlikely to make the championship game.
The Glimmer of Hope
Interestingly, WKU has an angle to play of a possible advantage here. Obviously four games in a row seems daunting for a team that hasn’t won four games in a row during conference play and hasn’t won more than two in a row in nearly two months.
However, WKU does get to open up with the worst team in the conference Tuesday, a team that ultimately has no business beating WKU away from home. FIU is notoriously horrible away from home over the years, and this year is no different, losing all but two games away from home this season and winning zero in CUSA play.
Against Jacksonville State Wednesday, the Tops will have their jitters out and be confident from a win, and JSU will be starting their tournament. Could the Tops catch JSU being sluggish? Could it take a while for JSU to find the intensity required in a do-or-die situation? Other than the head coach, do they have the tournament experience to jump straight into it? Most of WKU’s roster has either played in a conference tournament with WKU or has played in the NCAA Tournament for WKU or some other program.
Here’s what I think is most interesting about this week and a possible game changer:
If WKU can survive its first two, they get 40 hours of rest or so, while their opponents will get (at the very most) 16 hours of rest before having to suit up for the semifinals Friday. That 16 hours is assuming their game starts and finishes on time. If the game only lasts two hours, then they get 16 hours including warmups to rest before going out and playing a tougher opponent than their previous game.
In a really concerning twist for many, because Propst Arena is the only basketball court in CUSA tournament play, the women’s and men’s tournaments happen simultaneously in the same location. Quarterfinals (eight total games) are spread out over two days, and the 3-6 and 4-5 matchups for the men play late Thursday and because of TV time slots turn around and play early Friday, while the 1-8-9 and 2-7-10 matchups come in well rested. The women get more rest, because they play the later games Friday.
Could this play a factor? From experience (not playing but observing the equivalent of ten full tournaments for both men and women), the semifinals are the hardest game mentally. You’re tired, and your adrenaline is not fully pumping, because you’re not playing for a championship at the end of the game. This is just another step in the process. Well…what if you weren’t tired? Couldn’t that play a huge factor both mentally and physically? In theory, a 7-8-9-10 seed could come in more rested than the favorite. And in the championship, one of those lower seeds could feel fresher in that game, as well for the same reason.
Don’t get it twisted, though. This is not a huge advantage to the tune of me saying WKU is actually going to make the run that we’re speaking of. But it’s interesting and theoretically an equalizer.
What They Need to Do to Actually Win
Lady Luck
Sorry, but the Tops aren’t winning without a lot of luck. To win four games, you can’t run into a buzzsaw, you can’t go cold one night (unless the other team does, too), and you’ve got to have some rebounds, loose balls, and calls bounce your way. An unexpected upset on the path somewhere to light the load from the semifinals on would help, too.
Execute
The ole Rick Stansbury analysis is back:
Gotta shoot tat ball! Gotta step up n make some shots!
If the Tops don’t make some buckets consistently, it’s not gonna happen. The Tops need to play well, because four teams in a row are not going to shoot sub-40% on you. You need some luck in the shooting department.
No One Comes in and Stinks it Up
With a short bench and key players out, you have to play well, and whoever comes in at minimum needs to not be a liability offensively and defensively. If someone goes 2-for-12, someone else needs to pick up the slack. If one guy is getting dominated down low, the Tops are going to have to find quick solutions. If 4 and 5 players (which have to include Kalambay and Marshall despite them possibly playing other positions) don’t contribute at least 20 (if not 30) per game, how could WKU win? You only have 60% of your players, so they have to be nearly twice as good as if you had your full compliment of players. It can happen, but it’s going to have to be well done.
How Each Player Can Make it Happen for the Tops
Don McHenry-Be “The Don”
A nickname that has grown this year in popularity, “The Don” just needs to be his great self. Bro, if you drop 30 once or twice and average above 20 throughout this run and certainly don’t disappear in any one game, you have absolutely done your part.
Tyrone “Woo” Marshall, Jr.-Double Digits Three of Four Games
WOO! This fella…what an awesome dude, and his family supports the absolute heck out of him. They’re ALWAYS there for every game, and they travel to conference tournament. Dear Old Western needs this guy to be really good, and we need to see him being aggressive to the cup. If he can drop in a three or two, great. But don’t fall in love with that shot. Fall in love with swooping around the corner and ducking under the backboard and up on the glass for two (and an and-one occasionally)
Khristian Lander-At Least Two Threes Per Game, at Least Two FT Per Game
I’d like to see Khristian Lander be the all-around player he could be. If he can just not be horrible from behind the arc, and have a nose for the rim, he will be a positive for the Tops, and if he does the above at a minimum, he’s also going to have a game or two where he carries the team on his back.
Braxton Bayless-Don’t be a Liability Offensively
This is not a slight on Braxton, but more of a “this is the formula” conversation. Braxton has had some good games and incredible games, and there are some games where he just goes for it and just misses nearly everything. He’s also had a few games where he just doesn’t exist offensively and hardly does anything. WKU needs the Braxton Bayless that has showed up some in the later stages of the year, where he has been a pretty consistent starter for the Tops.
Jalen Jackson-Contribute Something Offensively
We all know Jalen is going to do whatever it takes to win. A champion in every year in college, Jalen is not looking to mar the record now. The way Jalen helps his team the most is by not being a zero on the scoreboard. He’s usually a willing passer and has a decent volume of assists, which you would love to see continue. But a huge key is not leaving it all on other players to score all of the points. Get five a game instead of your usual three. If Jalen was a 7+ ppg per game player, he would be an impact player because of his defense and ability to distribute.
Enoch Kalambay-More Inside than Outside
Enoch Kalambay can tend to fall in love with the three, but his real gifting is being a strong body that can get inside despite below average height for a power forward. In January and February, he had a run of six of seven games in double figures, looking like the best player on the team at the time. Since, he has missed several games due to mostly unknown circumstances, and in the games he has played, he has played more than 20 minutes once and has only been in double digits one out of his last five games played, including the three games he missed. In conference, WKU was 4-3 when he scored double digits, and 4-7 when he didn’t. The reason would be because he’s a bonus scorer, and WKU really needs bonus scorers without Julius Thedford and Babacar Faye.
Leeroy Odiahi/Blaise Keita-Combine for at Least 8 and 8 Each Game
These guys split responsibilities starting and backing each other up, and I think they play relatively the same game. They are remotely capable down low, which is an improvement over the beginning of the year. But WKU needs contribution from the center position, and these guys are big enough that they should clean the glass and each get a couple of putbacks or dump off dunks per game. The Tops need both scoring and rebounding from these guys. If one of them gets a double-double, imagine how much that opens up the spacing and helps with WKU’s atrocious rebounding issues.
Jack Edelen-One Three Per Game and be a Fire Starter
WKU needs Jack Edelen’s shooting, and they need his overcome-the-odds type of hustle game. Jack is always annoying opponents with his quickness and hands. We also need to watch out for a matchup where Jack is just overwhelmed by the length of another team. He needs to be the consistent presence he’s become off the bench for WKU to be its best. He has had moments where he was the guy to make a big play, snap a run, or get the team going. Be the spark, Jack.
Jaylen Dorsey-Be Solid, Wreak Havoc Without Too Many Fouls
Due to so many players being injured, Jaylen Dorsey has come from being the second to last guy off of the bench in garbage time to being a part of the rotation. That means the level has to be stepped up. In a four game tournament with a short bench and a coach willing to play his available players, Jaylen Dorsey will come in at some point and play key minutes. Jaylen has more fouls than points on the season, so let’s not get too carried away, but a remarkable statistic is that his three turnovers came from only one game (3 turnovers vs. UTEP). He has not had a turnover in any other game played this year in 94 total minutes played, a remarkable statistic! If you could get a basket, two rebounds, less than two fouls, and no turnovers per game played for Jaylen, that would be a huge win for the 5-12 minutes he might play in any game over the next five days.
Tyler “Fluff” Olden-Be the Icing on the Cake
A huge moment in the trajectory of WKU’s tournament run was Fluff nailing shots. It just felt like destiny, and he came in against NMSU and MTSU and contributed. The crowd loves him, and the players love watching him get out there and show that he’s not someone to just be laughed at and beat up in practice. These types of players and those types of moments bring everyone together. If you’re going to make a run, everybody needs to contribute something, and with only ten available players, it is absolutely conceivable the refs could call a tight game, or WKU could go into overtime or something and be forced to play Fluff in important moments. One or two injuries, or multiple guards in foul trouble means Coach Plona chooses between wearing out his players or throwing Fluff in and seeing what happens for a few moments.
Why This Team has a Prayer
D-d-d-…do you have it? D-d-d…do you have it? GUTS!
Listen, I know people just checking in to this article around CUSA, casual fans, and even dedicated WKU hardcore fans mostly don’t believe WKU has a shot. Whenever I make any type of post or comment that there is a chance of a run at this thing, 75 percent of the time, it’s met with rolling eyes, and that’s fine. But this team has a chance, and the reason is because they’ve got some cajones.
All season, this group has shown an ability to bounce back. We mentioned of WKU’s ten losses in conference, over half have been by double digits. They have gotten their teeth kicked in several times this year. But you know what? What has been universally true is this team has not quit. They have not checked out. They have not packed it in. This team has kicked straight in said cajones and has popped right back up and refused to quit.
I hope Topper fans remember this team—regardless of what happens Tuesday vs. FIU and (hopefully) Wednesday vs. JSU and beyond from there—as a team that fought, and as a team with some Hilltopper legends on it. Despite a disappointing season that will end with a winning record and just about nothing else to show for it barring a miracle run, this team shown an incredible ability to hold itself together, to love each other, and to have some pride in Hilltopper Red and White.
This team has a chance. And I say it with a straight face. I already highlighted the logic for how they could have a mental and/or physical advantage in two of the four games. The only other games are games they are favored (-4.5 to FIU) and the championship game. So if things will lean themselves to the direction of luck, for God’s sake, don’t give up til the fat lady sang twice!
These guys deserve some blind belief until the bitter end, and you know what? They could actually do it.
Regardless of what happens this tournament, I’ll close with this:
It will always be Dear Old Western’s day!
Stand up and cheer
Stand up and cheer
For dear old Western
For today we raise
The red and white
Above the rest
Rah-rah-rah
Our team is fighting
And we're bound to win the fray
We've got the team
We've got the steam
For this is dear old Western's day!
Want more from Towel Rack, the only WKU outlet that provides real, honest, unbiased (as much as possible) perspective with live tweeting, breaking news, a podcast, and full-length articles? And good luck finding an outlet that provides comprehensive Lady Topper coverage. No one else does exactly what we do, and it’s all for FREE! There’s no charge for the one stop shop that is The Towel Rack!
This coming week, four of us will be traveling to Huntsville, Alabama, for the Conference USA Tournament. We’ll be on press row tweeting and writing with full CUSA Tournament coverage! Give us follows on social media to stay up to date, but also, hit the subscribe button below to get on our e-mail list and stay fully up to date on all things Tops!
Towel Rack is completely free and will always be free if you don’t want to give a dime. There truly is zero obligation, and there will be no guilt trip if you never contribute.
However, for those that are able or willing, if you’d like to support the Towel Rack’s efforts (like traveling with teams, credentials, podcast expenses, state/federal business licensing, administration costs, etc.)…click the button below!
Your donation is valued and appreciated. We strive to be Johnny Hilltopper’s number one resource for real information. Thanks for all that you’ve done over the years, Hilltopper fans!
GO TOPS!!!!