Tops Survive Second Half Lull, Pull Away at NMSU, 41-28
Family Dinner Table: The McCay's break down the Tops' victory at New Mexico State Saturday night. WKU now sits at 5-0 in Conference USA and incredibly likely to compete for a CUSA Ring in December.
Western Kentucky Football continues to roll through Conference USA. Finally tested at all for the first time in nearly a month and playing a game within two scores or less for the first time since September, the Tops rose to the occasion.
WKU was up 24-7 at halftime in this one, but NMSU came storming back to cut the WKU lead to 24-21 with 5:28 left in the third quarter.
From there, WKU would rattle off three straight scores to make it 41-21. NMSU would find a late touchdown to keep a pulse for a few more minutes before WKU shut it down the last couple of minutes after a failed onside kick.
Western Kentucky (7-2, 5-0 CUSA) now sits in great shape to find its way into the championship game, something that has eluded the Tops since 2021, and they have not actually sealed the deal and won it since going back-to-back in 2015-16.
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account. Every once in a while, those bricks clank against the backboard and find their way into the bucket. Most often, it probably looks like you in your backyard shooting it off of the gutters of your house, Jackie Moon.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck and their wives grabbing their arm telling them to shut up because you’re embarrassing them, this one’s for you.
Papa McCay’s Musings
Western did just enough to win against NMSU. But it took the offense scoring 41 to make sure of the win. WKU’s defense struggled against the multifaceted Aggie rushing attack, giving up 460 yards of total offense and 331 yards rushing. If not for the Hilltopper defense forcing five turnovers, this game could have gone bad quickly. this was the most points given up by WKU since the Alabama game. The Western defense needs to get their run defense figured out as the last two opponents (Liberty and Jacksonville State) are even better with their rushing attack. If Western wins two of the last three games, they will play for the CUSA Championship.
Once again, WKU’s offense was balanced rushing for more than 100 yards for an eighth straight game and passing for almost 300 yards, with a total of 413 yards. Caden Veltkamp #10 played well except for throwing two interceptions. Caden was 18/27 for 246 yards, two TDs and was only sacked once, while adding 11 rushes for 25 yards and two additional TDs. Elijah Young #3 led Western rushers with 16 rushes for 74 yards. Kisean Johnson #0 led the receiving corps with five catches for 88 yards and a TD. KD Hutchinson #15 had four catches for 73 yards and a TD. Easton Messer #8 had four catches for 69 yards and a TD. The three TDs by the receivers were exciting, long plays.
The Western defense came up with five important turnovers (three fumbles and two interceptions), but only three tackles for loss and zero sacks. The multiple running back offense cause the Toppers some problems, but the passing defense was fantastic only giving up 129 yards. Lucas Carneiro #17 nailed two important field goals, one being from 54 yards.
La Tech, Homecoming, Fill LT Smith Stadium!
Western will face one of the best defenses in CUSA, but one of the weaker offenses on Saturday, La Tech. The Bulldogs defensive abilities to get turnovers fuels most of La Tech’s scores, so WKU needs to have a clean game limiting the turnovers and sacks. Go TOPS!! See you at LT Smith.
Pops’ Prediction
Western’s defense is very good at keeping teams out of the end zone, except when blitzes go wrong. La Tech’s offense is not good at sustained drives, not good at rushing, but will burn you on short yardage situations, especially via turnovers, and only have one receiver with the majority of the catches and receiving yards. The Bulldogs do not turn the ball over much. The team that makes the other earn every yard and gets more turnovers will determine who wins the game.
I see another score like we have been seeing recently, though. WKU pulls it out 31-14. GO TOPS!!!
Young Buck McCay’s Rebuttals
First of all, a win’s a win. It is what it is. The most important game is the next game. Score more points than the opponent. Insert football cliche here.
The Tops got it done. It’s conference play, so anything can happen, and sometimes you play a few games closer than you’d like despite being the better team. We talked about how NMSU had not lost a game at home by more than ten all season. They lost by 13. WKU by extension played the best game of anyone that has played at New Mexico State this season.
We talked about handling the distractions, like traveling on a fairly long flight, like handling altitude, like frankly handling sometimes uninteresting opponents.
But they’ve done it.
The Championship Picture
It’s a four horse race. FIU does have three losses, so they are virtually eliminated. Liberty is absolutely on the ropes, but they do play two of the three teams above them. The three main players are Western Kentucky, Jacksonville State, and Sam Houston State. Undefeated, Jax State and WKU are completely in control of their own destiny. If both make it to the final week of the season, they will play each other to see who hosts the CUSA Championship next week.
If either does not win out, it really opens the doors for Sam Houston and Liberty. What’s interesting is all four teams play each other the final two weeks of the season, so much of this drama will be settled in the final two weeks.
Sam Houston is in control of its destiny in terms of being able to make the CUSA Championship, but they cannot host the championship game without at least one loss from WKU and Jacksonville State. They can hand JSU a loss in the penultimate week of the season when they play at Jacksonville State.
Liberty must win out and hope for significant help.
WKU and JSU’s biggest week is this week. If both win, they could drop one or maybe even the last two and still make an appearance in the championship game.
QB Convo
Caden Veltkamp has officially been named WKU’s starter going forward. If Caden had a chance to prove himself and didn’t mess up significantly along the way, it would have been his job at this point. Although TJ Finley may be healthy, Veltkamp has been the better, more proven WKU commodity this season, he’s in shape, and he’s in the groove with the offense.
He could still improve. I would like to see him minimize the mistakes some more, especially against inferior defenses. WKU forced five turnovers and only won by 13. Why? Because they didn’t capitalize on turnovers for one thing. But also, because Caden turned the ball over twice himself, and both were killers. His two turnovers cost WKU at least seven points, and the fact that the Tops didn’t capitalize on all of NMSU’s mistakes (also on Veltkamp and the offense) made the difference between this being a WKU blowout and being a competitive ball game.
It’s still fine, and his total TD/turnover ratio was still 2-to-1 in this game. He also led his team to a +3 turnover margin in this one. So yes, it was a decent performance despite two mistakes. However, in a closer game against a better opponent, those two turnovers could be the difference. Imagine if WKU plays Liberty in a close game and turns it over up or down a touchdown. Liberty would be way more likely to win. The Tops must take care of the football, and Caden really needs to not make significant mistakes. If a ball gets tipped, so be it. If you throw it up one-on-one and a DB goes and grabs it, fine. If you’re inaccurate, fine. Stuff happens. But minimize the stuff that has to do with you completely misreading a defense. Or forcing it somewhere that it shouldn’t belong. Fix that and the Tops win Conference USA.
WKU Defense Concerning But Still Effective
So yeah…330 yards rushing. Not good. But the Tops ultimately did what they likely wanted to do: Force NMSU to run the ball to win. And guess what? The Tops made them one dimensional, and NMSU couldn’t produce enough to catch up to WKU.
Yes, the defense gave up the most points it has since August, but even so, if this is their worst performance of the year, you have to take it, frankly. Some of WKU’s defenses have been absolutely hideous in years past. This year, the defense has a terrible game and still doesn’t give up 30 points.
The defense only had three TFLs and no sacks, as Dad said above. They basically played about their worst game possible and still won going away. At the end of the day, this defense is doing its part. It just so happened that this game, they needed some help from the offense.
Hopefully the Topper defense gets a little pissed off and comes out against a La Tech team that seems like a formidable adversary. The Tops cannot play poorly against the Bulldogs, or they could find themselves a gut wrenching loss on homecoming.
Grading the Keys to Victory
Depth Must Show Up: C+
I’m not sure how to grade this one, but I would say the WKU offense did a good job spreading it around. Four different receivers contributed at least 60 yards in various phases of the game, two backs had some yardage, two people had touchdown passes, etc.
But the defensive depth was questionable. Yes, they forced a bunch of turnovers. Other than that, perhaps some depth would have helped stem more of the tide of the Aggies in the running game. Anyway, passing grade for the offense, but a relatively decisive failing grade for the defense in this area.
Reload the Reload: D
This time, the game plan did not work as well. WKU did not bow up against the run well enough to keep this game out of reach. NMSU had its chances to find a lead and just couldn’t do it. That doesn’t mean WKU did the best job. The opportunities were there in those moments for NMSU to step up and take a lead.
For several weeks in a row, WKU has faced a quarterback that can run better than he can pass. NMSU figured something out, and the wishbone spread look really worked and confused the Tops. WKU did not do a good job stopping the run at all, did not do a great job with assignment football, and certainly had some tackling and fundamental gap issues.
Win Third Down: D
NMSU was excellent on third down offensively. WKU did do well on third down when their offense had the ball. But going even with an inferior team on third down (or so) just doesn’t cut it. Allowing NMSU to stay on the field was clearly the reason the game was remotely close. WKU should have shattered New Mexico State. But they just kind of handled them. Well, a huge reason would be because New Mexico State did decently in some of the big moments.
Punting: B
Finally, Cole Maynard had a good game. He did not have super long field to work with, so he should not be penalized for an average of 40. He had three punts inside the 20, and the other went the full distance into the end zone. At the end of the day, he didn’t shank anything, and he didn’t allow NMSU to start any farther out than their 20 yard line every time he touched the ball. That’s well done. I leave a little bit off of the grade simply because there were a few more yards to be had on each punt. But we’re splitting hairs, here. Nice to see a quality game from an important player.
Four Quarters: D-
WKU had nearly half of the game where they struggled to do much. Once WKU got up 21-7 a few seconds into the second quarter, WKU would get outscored 14-3 for a stretch of nearly two full quarters. Then WKU poured it on once again. Credit to the Tops for stepping up and finishing the game, but other than that, this team was extremely inconsistent to non-existent in the two middle quarters.
Conclusion: Tops With A Lot to Work on Once Again
It’s fairly obvious WKU played its worst quality of football defensively since Alabama. Offensively, it was pretty good, but could have been better. On a positive note, special teams looked extremely solid.
But things were not all fairies and unicorns for the Tops last week. The good news is they played fairly poorly and beat a team that plays well at home by double digits despite being very pedestrian.
WKU must step up from here, though. Each week, the challenge gets tougher.
The Tops have got to lock in and get it done Saturday.
It’s now the meat of Conference USA season in football, basketball is finally here, Volleyball is finishing CUSA play and prepping for the postseason, and the Topper fall calendar is in full swing.
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GO TOPS!!!!