Towel Rack WKU's Roundtable Predictions for Week 1 at Alabama
FB: What does the staff predict happens opening week in Tuscaloosa?
A new season dawns, and WKU starts it out with a tilt at Alabama in primetime on national television. As a fan, you can’t ask for a more “what if…?”, exciting type of matchup, the pipedream likes of which have not been seen since the chunky kid tried to ask out the “Perfect 10” girl in high school.
Hope springs eternal, but do any of our staff have the stones to call an outright WKU win? I’m sure every WKU fan likes to dream, but could it actually happen? One would think with Nick Saban retiring and a younger roster with less proven depth going up against a hungry WKU team with (presumably) really nice pieces, this could be the year that the Tops scare or even topple the big dog.
Historically, five out of the last six Alabama coaches have lost to a Non-Power Four/Five/Six school in year one of their coaching tenure. Assuming three different chances for the little guy on average for the typical Power Five non-conference, that gives WKU, say, a 20-25 percent chance of upsetting if history means anything, which it absolutely doesn’t (sorry to burst your bubble). It’s still an interesting, outlier type of statistic that fares well for the Tops’ confidence if nothing else.
WKU has a three wins against Power Five schools since joining the FBS in 2007, and the Tops have had several moments where they looked capable of doing something extraordinary against higher end power programs. However, they have never cashed in on beating any kind of “blue blood” football program.
Fifth ranked Alabama may not be the moment this happens, but the tables are set for an interesting conversation as opposed to a foregone conclusion. Anyone that claims to know Alabama is just as good as they always are is lying. There’s no way you know that! They should be good. They should still beat the brakes off of everyone not in the SEC. Absolutely.
But will they?
Predictions
Matt McCay (0-0)
Watch out Alabama! We’re coming for you, and the game will be played! I don’t know if you’ll murder us, but we’ll be there. This is one of those games that you look at and don’t feel like there’s a prayer. Alabama has a Heisman contender in Jalen Milroe. That alone tells you he needs to completely suck, or the Tops will have to have a Bailey Zappe level offense with a Willie Taggart level defense to compete with Alabama on top of Alabama having an off day. Interestingly, indications from camp suggest WKU could be pretty good, and the Tops do have a starting quarterback (TJ Finley) that has a Power Five win on his resume. He will not be too scared to function.
I really do think WKU could acquit itself quite well, but I hold out little hope for beating Alabama. I think it’s possible WKU could cover the spread, but I don’t think I’ll even predict that. If I was putting a percentage chance that WKU hangs within a couple of touchdowns, I would put it at maybe 15 percent. Not very high. But it could happen. In recent memory, there were ranked Power Five matchups that WKU was more likely to succeed (#1 LSU in 2015 and 2008 at a teens-ranked Virginia Tech) because the makeup of both teams suggested WKU could have an advantage somewhere. In this case, the only chance is if the Tide is just absolutely inexplicably awful that day. Or maybe Calen DeBoer is a pretender of a coach and just doesn’t have his team ready. Judging by resume, that is also unlikely.
Perhaps if WKU’s receivers are incredible, Alabama’s young, still jelling secondary could be susceptible after major departures all over the back end of the Bama defense. I think this WKU offense might be able to score, and I’m not sold on Alabama’s defense being to the level we would expect from a Saban-led squad. They also lost two players with double digit sacks from last season, so someone has to immediately multiply their production to make them as effective up front defensively. Therefore I’ll say WKU puts up a couple of scores but loses to Alabama 45-10.
Devin Stewart (0-0): Alabama 35-WKU 14
For Devin’s full thoughts, why don’t you check out the RedOut Podcast episode with Dave Ozment from The Alabama Football Podcast?
Alex Sherfield (0-0)
It’s very interesting that the Tops will open the season at Alabama, which is going through a generational transition in college football. The Kalen DeBoer era may very well be the opposite of years past with Nick Saban, but I still would not rule out the Crimson Tide. Being on primetime Saturday night is a huge boost for Western, as it gives us some early season exposure among Group of Five football enthusiasts.
I’m very content with TJ Finley being the de facto starter for the Tops this year. While his stops at LSU & Auburn (also notably being a challenging force in the near upset of Alabama in the 2022 Iron Bowl) have not been up to his ceiling, his 2023 campaign at Texas State (24 TDS to 8 INTs, 3,439 passing yards) was proof enough for Tyson Helton to put his trust in the junior gunslinger. While managing a completely different offense in 2024 with some returning starters in Elijah Young, Dalvin Smith, Easton Messer, River Helms, & other various transfers, it should be enough to challenge an Alabama defense that is going through some early-season growing pains before the gauntlet of their SEC schedule.
Elsewhere, it is hard to compete on both sides of the ball with a national juggernaut, especially with the Crimson Tide offense. Quarterback Jalen Milroe is destined for a potential Heisman like season with a better chance of spreading out the ball under a high-powered offense system that was previously in the national championship just a few months ago with Washington. Still, it’s an Alabama team that is always hungry to run up the score & showcase themselves on Saturdays. As long as our defense can make a few good plays, especially on the defensive line, I’ll be good with how things go, just as long we don’t fall apart too early.
Let’s sit back & enjoy WKU Football being back in our lives and get out of Tuscaloosa with extra confidence going forward in 2024.
Prediction: Alabama 43, WKU 20
Jacob Gary (0-0)
I know we’re all hyped about WKU Football this year, but it’s the debut for the new era of Bama Football, in Bama’s house. The spread is 31.5. Over/Under is 59.5. They say good teams win but great teams cover. I think the Tops have it in them to stick around enough to cover, but down the stretch, I think Bama will end up with a sizable lead.
Alabama 41-WKU 17
David McCay (0-0)
I am doing some evaluations of players for both teams. Surprisingly, Alabama is ranked preseason #5 with untested offensive talent and only freshman depth at skill positions (QB, RB, WR, TE). Alabama returns two quarterbacks, two running backs, two wide receivers (Plus a transfer), one tight end, and some linemen. The rest are freshmen (and newcomers). The returning players other than the starting quarterback and Heisman candidate Jalen Milroe and some linemen, saw limited action in 2023. Do they have talent? Certainly. Fantastic, highly recruited, (nationally) ranked, young but mostly unproven talent. Alabama’s defense has a little more proven depth and some returning players, but still not what like it has been in the past several years. Overall, Alabama is a very young but very talented team.
Western Kentucky lost several players in the portal this year, but also found equal or better talent to bring into camp. Western pulled talent from power conferences and best players from some lower conferences as well. Overall, I believe WKU’s talent is better than last year at most positions. The big question will be, will these players mix well and play as a team? If they do, the sky is the limit.
WKU will need to play out of their minds to win this game. Everyone will need to play their best. Coaches have preached, “being the best teammate”, “being the best individual”, “knowing your job”, “playing together as family”, “Why not WKU!” There may never be a better opportunity for Western to pull a HUGE upset and get a nice multi million dollar paycheck.
Alabama has a new head coach. They lost several starters to the portal and NFL Draft. After the starters, they are super young. So there is the chance of a let down game this season. Nonetheless, Alabama should win this game handily. Alabama has the greater talent. They have the longer greater storied football history and a much larger pocketbook. Unfortunately, I do not see an upset happening. WKU 21 - Alabama 56.
Bret Combest (0-0)
We score some late to make it look better but just can’t keep up with all the five stars. Alabama 35-Western Kentucky 21
The Gist: Tops Look Capable but Overpowered by #5 Alabama
So far our staff is agreeing on everything. That will absolutely change in week three or so. The overall season is pretty straightforward and we feel confident WKU is decent to very good, but probably not great. Against Alabama, we feel like Alabama could be more vulnerable than they have in years, but they still have competent pieces, and they’re certainly more talented at nearly every position group. Western may have the experience edge at a couple of spots, but superior talent beats great technique on most days. The technique does give you a chance, though.
Don’t let our opinions quell your excitement. It’s an incredible opportunity, and WKU will make $1.9 million for showing up. Unless the season is tanked because of massive injuries, the investment is worth possibly getting slapped around like an unruly stepchild.
Pro tip: If you’re heading down to Tuscaloosa, get down there with plenty of time. You almost certainly will hit traffic on the interstate as you head in. You also need time to figure out where you’re going to park. Also, don’t be shocked if you get heckled and cussed out. Welcome to big time football, folks!
It’s an uphill battle all around, but guess what? Paper means nothing. Fan’s comments and the media predicting everyone’s demise means absolutely nothing. It’s football time. Put the pads on, and let’s watch hell break loose once somebody gets punched in the mouth.
Let’s get it, TOPS!
Finally, sports are back on The Hill, and Towel Rack is here to be your source for all things WKU. Tune in for more articles, live tweeting, reaction to big news, and the podcast. We truly appreciate our loyal audience! GO TOPS!
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