Family Dinner Table: Western Kentucky Heads to "The Mountain" to take on Liberty
FB: Can WKU bounce back from a flat offensive game against La Tech and keep themselves in contention for CUSA? Liberty was the G5 Cinderella last season, but has midnight struck?
Nestled in the foothills of central Virginia, the city of Lynchburg and Liberty University will host the Western Kentucky University in a very important CUSA football battle this weekend. The winner puts themselves within striking distance of the CUSA Football Championship. The loser will need serious help to get there.
Both teams can win their final two games and confirm a spot in the Conference USA Championship, and Western Kentucky can host if it can win its last two games against CUSA’s best.
If you’re a sports fan, hopefully you have someone you can talk about your favorite team with. Well, for father-son duo David and Matt McCay, they are each other’s backboard to see if any of their ideas are of any account. Every once in a while, those bricks clank against the backboard and find their way into the bucket. Most often, it probably looks like you in your backyard shooting it off of the gutters of your house, Jackie Moon.
Heated battles may happen around the dinner table at your home, so in honor of those tense moments when you nearly roll into a fight about long snapper depth, we salute you with this series from the McCay’s. Hopefully they won’t roll into a public argument, but hey things happen.
In honor of the Monday morning quarterbacks, the heated debates, the differing opinions, and the people screaming from the upper deck and their wives grabbing their arm telling them to shut up because you’re embarrassing them, this one’s for you.
David’s Observations on the Liberty Flames
This version of Liberty is not as dominant as previous versions, but just as dangerous, especially at Williams Stadium. Liberty is 7-2 overall and 4-2 in CUSA coming into this weekend’s contest at home in Lynchburg, VA against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, also with a really good record at 7-3 overall and 5-1 in CUSA. Liberty’s only losses are in conference games to Kennesaw State (1-9) and CUSA leading Jacksonville State (7-3, 6-0 CUSA). Most of Liberty’s games have been relatively close, within 10 points or so. Las Vegas betting believes this game will be within a field goal either way, so WKU fans should not expect anything else.
Liberty averages 31.6 points per game and give up 22 points per contest. Kaidon Salter #7 has started all season at quarterback and has completed 129 of 215 passes for 1,695 yards, 13 TDs, 4 interceptions, and has been sacked 16 times. Kaidon has rushed for 100 times for 498 yards and 5 TDs. He is a true dual threat quarterback. The Flames have rushed 408 times this season for 2,256 yards and 23 rushing TDs, led by Quinton Cooley #20 with 198 rushes for 998 yards and 11 TDs. Liberty has four receivers to watch out for in this game. Treon Sibley #21 has 23 catches for 448 yards and two TDs. Elijah Canion #5 has 22 catches for 334 yards and two TDs. Tyson Mobley #8 has 26 catches for 264 yards and one TD. Reese Smith #6 has 13 catches 199 yards and three TDs.
Defensive end TJ Bush, Jr #3 leads Liberty with 5.5 sacks, 42 tackles and a forced fumble with recovery. Linebacker Joseph Carter #25 leads the Flames with 68 tackles. The Liberty defense has six fumble recoveries and four interceptions on the season. Place kicker Colin Karhu #98 has made 34 of 35 extra points and 8 of 11 field goals with a long of 47.
Western Kentucky Notables
WKU Starting quarterback Caden Veltkamp #10 now has 2,102 yards passing on 167 completions out of 239 pass attempts with 19 TDs and 7 interceptions. Feature running back Elijah Young #3 has 143 carries for 587 yards and three TDs. Western has 6 receivers with 14 or more catches and is led by Kisean Johnson #0 with 50 catches for 685 yards and five TDs.
Final Observations
For Western to be successful in this game, the offense must find a way to get more plays and possessions and score points. Maybe run more tempo. No matter what, be efficient and take what the Flame defense gives. There is no need to force the ball up the field. If they give you four or five, take it. If a player breaks a tackle, even better. Western has a great kicker. Use him as a weapon, not an afterthought. Caden Veltkamp must be able to read the defense, be efficient, accurate and secure with the ball. There will be open receivers, so find them.
The WKU defense needs to be able get pressure on the quarterback with sacks, get turnovers, eliminate big plays, contain the running backs, and get off the field. If they can do all of these things, they will once again have done as much as they can do.
Western’s offense needs to score in the 30s; if that happens, WKU should win by more than a touchdown. If not, it will be a very close game once again. If WKU misses any scores in the red zone, be it field goals or TDs, that will cost them the game again this week. This weekend I agree with Las Vegas that one team will prevail by less than a field goal. Let it be WKU 23-21.
Matt McCay’s Musings
This is definitely what you dreamed about at the beginning of the season, Topper fans. Just because WKU had a dud of a Homecoming performance doesn’t mean the season is lost. It’s fascinating to watch Facebook and Twitter melt it down after a loss that frankly proves inconsequential.
WKU would still have needed to beat Liberty to solidify a spot in the CUSA title game. The only difference is they will also have to beat Jacksonville State in order to make the championship game. The only scenario where WKU does not need to beat Jacksonville State would be if JSU also beats Sam Houston this week in addition to WKU beating Liberty.
Long story short, WKU just needs to win its last two games, host the championship, and hoist the trophy against whoever shows up in Bowling Green on the first Friday in December.
We Will Be There Saturday…See Y’all There?!?
Dad and I will be at this game. Come say “hey"! We can’t wait. Personally, I’ve only ever been there one time. I’ve been to Baltimore/Annapolis a couple of times, but we only were in Virginia one time in my entire life.
So this is a state I’m not as familiar with, a university that I’m excited to see, and of course, a football game has the makings of being a classic. Liberty is favored by one, and we’re hoping the Tops are the one to come out on top.
The Championship Picture
Welp WKU laid an egg on Homecoming, and now JSU has the extreme leg up. If they win this week, they are for sure playing in the championship game, and it just comes down to who between WKU, Sam, and Liberty. WKU can lock it up with a JSU win and a win against Liberty. Then the final game would just decide where the championship game is played.
If WKU or JSU lose this week, chaos ensues, and the two teams on the back foot would now be firmly in contention. Sam and Liberty would duke it out to see who played Jacksonville State. Keep in mind that if WKU ties with Sam Houston State, they will own the tiebreaker due to a head-to-head win. If Liberty finishes with three losses, Sam with two, and WKU with two, for example, WKU goes to Jacksonville State as long as JSU has won one of two of its games
To explain further, if three teams are tied, of course, if one team is 2-0 against the other two (which could happen if JSU, WKU, and Sam all tie at 6-2), then the team with the better record wins that tie. If three teams are tied and they all split 1-1 between each other, then it comes down to the College Football Playoff rankings.
Topper Run Defense, Topper Offense Now With Questionable Momentum
Even if you look at things last week and say you’re not that worried, admit it. You are a little bit. Western Kentucky shut down La Tech’s passing game and allowed La Tech to run the ball for over 200 yards. La Tech hasn’t really done that all season. That’s concerning, especially when you consider Western gave up nearly 400 yards rushing to New Mexico State the week before, giving up its most points since August.
The Topper offense also showed weakness, only scoring once and only passing for 152 yards. RB Elijah Young, who has produced consistently for months, gained only 24 yards on the ground and 45 overall. WKU’s offensive line gave up three sacks and seven tackles-for-loss.
It’s not time to call in FEMA for disaster relief efforts yet, but it’s definitely concerning to see pedestrian performances in key areas. Considering that WKU faces two offenses that can absolutely explode solely running the football is deeply concerning. If WKU cannot move the ball in addition to a defense that needs to step up from its recent mediocrity, the Tops could be in big trouble.
Can Caden Veltkamp Prove he is the Currently Better QB?
This is a tall task, but Kaidon Salter is not as massively productive as he was last year. There is no question his numbers have regressed, his offense is more average, and his highlight reels are not as chocked full of acrobatic magnificence. He’s still a good player, but Caden Veltkamp is the statistically better quarterback of the two this year.
Caden has 500 more passing yards in less games played, and also can run the ball when he needs to. Salter is the more dangerous runner, with an ability to bust a long run at any time. However, again, statistically, he is the slightly inferior player in 2024.
In some ways, the game within the game could be the fight for First Team All-Conference at the quarterback position. It’s either these two guys, or it’s Tyler Huff at Jacksonville State. Veltkamp has his chance to prove his greatness against to two really, really good Conference USA signal callers.
Keys to Victory
If You Wanna Be the Big Dog, Ya Gotta Beat the Big Dog
Here you go, boys! I mean, you’ve wanted your shot all season at the champs. Well, a few weeks ago, it looked like the champs would be already eliminated, but here we sit. This is now a monumental matchup, and it’s time to put on your big boy pants. Liberty also holds its own destiny in its hands, so you can dang well expect that they’re just treating this like state quarterfinals, semis, and finals to win a championship. This is the quarterfinals, and the loser is (likely) out of the race. Be your most focused, your most intense, and your most ready, and let’s see where the chips fall, Tops.
Less Than 300 Yards Rushing for Liberty
That may seem lenient, but honestly, if WKU can keep Liberty from running all over, they should be in pretty good shape. Liberty’s defense is way more suspect, and even if they play well, WKU’s offense in combination with the fact that Liberty’s offense struggles through the air a little more than would be expected at this point in the season tells me the Tops don’t have to be elite against the ground game.
Less Than 250 Yards Passing for Liberty
In case you can’t tell, I think the WKU defense is a big key in this game. They’re going to have to hold Liberty down some, but I think it’s not a total disaster if Liberty finds a way to throw for a little over 200 yards. However, if Salter just absolutely goes off through the air, that’s not good for WKU at all. The Flames have averaged less than 200, so it’s really not so crazy to ask a good defense to just be decent.
400 Yards of Offense
WKU needs some offense for sure. If this game is another 12-7 type of game, so be it, I guess. But I don’t see Liberty as nearly as dominant defensively as La Tech. La Tech now gives up about 300 yards per game after its performance at WKU. Liberty gives up 350 yards per game, and they’ve done it against one of the weakest schedules in all of the FBS. Offensively, whether WKU does it with 200 and 200 or 400 and 0, if the Tops are in the 400s in yards, this feels like a game for them to win.
Bounce Back
Whatever funk that was against La Tech, the wrong attitude to have is “We just played a tough team and we’re fine”. Sure, you shouldn’t lose your confidence, but you played like an anemic JV team on offense, and your defense allowed a team that can’t run the ball to run the ball at will. Your sideline had less energy than a salted up slug. It’s time to feel that wake up call and respond. No stupid stuff. Laser focused. Locked in. And bring some juice, pop somebody in the mouth, and take back your juice box, kids. AIN’T NOBODY MESS WITH MY JUICE BOX!
“JUICEEEEEEEEEEE!” -Willie Taggart
Prediction
Although the last couple of weeks give me pause, I believe this game should be a better matchup for WKU. Liberty turns the ball over, and WKU’s defense is designed to turn the ball over. Yes, they did not against La Tech. But they’re due.
WKU’s offense is more balanced, with an equal ability to run and pass. Liberty struggles to pass the ball when it has to. Generally, the Flames can run the ball, but if they’re forced to pass, can they?
Liberty is one of the most penalized teams in the entire country, averaging damage of their own accord to the tune of 80 yards per game. WKU is one of the more disciplined teams in the country, averaging less than 40 yards per game in self-inflicted wounds.
On top of that, even if WKU is not playing as well as it has, Liberty is not playing great football, either. They have won their last two, but one was a one point win at UMASS. The other was a 20 point win against a really bad MTSU team. Then they lost to Kennesaw State (their only win) and lost to JSU by double digits the two weeks before that. Liberty has never looked right, and although I do think they will be laser focused, their season of cobbling together wins and hanging around has to fall apart at some point, and I think WKU should win this one.
Liberty may be favored by Vegas, and Vegas sometimes knows best. But I sincerely think this WKU team is way more likely to win this game than Liberty is. When I play out scenarios in my mind, I see WKU winning in more versatile scenarios than I can see Liberty doing. The majority of the time, I think WKU wins this game.
I think the WKU offense is going to bust back into form, and I think the Topper defense will be good like it has been all season. Give me WKU 34-Liberty 20.
Conclusion: Tops Should Find a Way at Liberty
At the end of the day, it’s time for Tyson Helton to show his mettle. It’s time for Caden Veltkamp to come into his own. And it’s time for the defense to prove why they have been the best defense in Conference USA this season.
At the end of the day, the Tyson Helton era has been setting up an incredible opportunity to win Conference USA, and this is the culmination that should lead to a coronation.
This season, Liberty has looked human, Jacksonville State has looked inconsistent, and WKU, until the last two weeks, looked to be the favorite to win Conference USA. Although that expectation has now shifted to JSU, a huge step in the pursuit of the CUSA Championship in 2024 runs through the Liberty Flames Saturday.
At the end of the day, WKU’s locker room should be 57 levels of fired up for this opportunity to be great. If this team is going to be great, they cannot lose Saturday. Sure, it’s a tough ask. But that’s exactly why you play it.
Tops by 90, baby.
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GO TOPS!!!!