WKU Baseball Heads to Ruston With a Chance to Grab a Stranglehold on the Conference USA Regular Season Title
Western Kentucky is one game ahead in the standings. With a sweep, WKU will be no worse than one game ahead of Dallas Baptist and two ahead of Liberty.
Western Kentucky Baseball has had a magical season. Surely no one saw WKU’s rag-tag, cobbled-together roster winning two-thirds of its games.
A week ago, WKU was piping hot, having won nearly all of its games in the past month. The Tops had difficulty this past weekend with two games (third game was canceled Saturday due to inclement weather) at UNC Asheville. A team under 200 in the RPI, UNC-Asheville played well, and WKU struggled across the board.
In a bizarre series that included a tent for a press box, a canceled game due to weather, audible cuss words on the ESPN+ broadcast, and literal bears roaming near the Hilltopper bullpen, ultimately the Tops left Asheville with little but anger and (presumably) a new focus.
Fortunately, this was a non-conference series, and even though it makes WKU’s computer numbers certainly took a hit, perhaps the Tops got their end-of-season lull out of the way. They came Tuesday and absolutely slaughtered Bellarmine 14-2.
That was certainly what everyone wanted to see. For the first time since losing to FIU in late March, WKU lost a series. That was concerning, but ultimately, if the Tops can refocus and take care of business against Louisiana Tech, WKU will virtually have a CUSA title in hand with three to play.
The Title Picture
In the driver’s seat, WKU sits atop the league with one game in hand. WKU owns tiebreakers on DBU and Liberty, having already won series against both. With a series win at La Tech, WKU would need no more than a win and a Dallas Baptist loss to win Conference USA.
La Tech can take as much as a two game lead over WKU if the Bulldogs can sweep WKU, something that is completely on the table, given that La Tech is 24-5 at home. WKU is a very respectable 13-8 on the road, even after two non-conference losses this past weekend. Who knows what happens, but an epic battle is happening in Ruston this weekend.
Let’s not forget about DBU And Liberty. They play each other at DBU, so if one of those two sweeps the other, it really puts pressure on La Tech and WKU to continue winning. With all teams only separated by two games in the standings, unless WKU sweeps La Tech and DBU loses the series to Liberty 2-1, the battle for the one seed will continue into the final weekend of CUSA play. As long as Liberty matches WKU’s result with La Tech, all four teams will be alive for the one seed.
This is a battle that is unlikely to be completely decided, but one of the four teams is likely to win five or six games. Whoever does that ends up at the top of the heap, while the teams that lose this next series will be severely on the back foot, dropping as low as a possible five seed instead of getting a higher seed and presumably facing an easier road to a championship.
Previewing WKU at La Tech
This is a really fascinating matchup, with a “small ball” team in WKU that prides itself on manufacturing runs and putting the opposing defense under pressure against a team that can blast the cover off of the ball in La Tech. WKU has two players that lead the team with six home runs with only four players hitting over .300. La Tech has five players with at least six home runs, and three of them double up (or more) the Tops’ most prolific sluggers. La Tech also has four players hitting .320 or higher and averages .300 as a team.
WKU’s pitching has drastically come back to Earth the past few weeks, which is deeply concerning. Is this a trend, or did they just get in a funk and now it’s go time? Who knows? But it’s certainly concerning. Up until the past few weeks, WKU was working on a historically great pitching staff, but has now added about a half a run a game to the ERA in the past couple of weeks. The Tops sit at 4.80 as a staff, while La Tech is at 5.04.
In the field, La Tech is a sparkling .980 fielding percentage, hardly ever making a mistake. Meanwhile, WKU sits a very pedestrian .967.
WKU wins by maximizing its chances and winning close games. La Tech, seemingly the powerful, overpowering team, actually wins close games, as well, going 15-3. How is that possible? Well, WKU fans know all about Mason Burns and his nation leading 14 saves. Do you know who he’s tied with? Ethan Bates of Louisiana Tech.
As mentioned in one of the points above, La Tech is 24-5 at home, a ridiculous number. They generally play great, and their fans show up to the tune of a couple thousand per game. With a championship on the line and a final chance to see their Bulldogs this season, I’m sure La Tech will be out in force to support their best men’s athletic program.
Keys to Victory
The Battle of the Bullpens
Both bullpens are excellent. Both teams just simply don’t meltdown late. However, both teams win close games. Something has to give here. Whichever bullpen can withstand the pressure in the close games in this series, or let’s say one game starts out with a huge lead for one team, the pitcher gets ousted, and the bullpen gives the team a chance to steal a game they never should have won, watch out.
WKU’s Starting Pitching
WKU has started a bunch of people this season. That probably leaves La Tech wondering who WKU might trot out there. However, most of the people that have started for WKU have done a good job. So who does WKU put out there? Dawson Hall? Jack Bennett? Jacob Bimbi? Drew Whalen? Lane Diuguid? These have all been viable options at certain points during the season. Do they step up or absolutely bomb and put all of the pressure on the bullpen?
WKU’s Depth Against La Tech’s Top Tier Players
La Tech may have the star power, with a near .400 hitter, three guys with double digit home runs, and three main starting pitchers. However, WKU may be the deeper team. La Tech has its nine main starters, and then it has its reserves. Pitching wise, mainly three guys have started, and the main guys have pitched out of the bullpen. WKU is different. I named off five potential starters for WKU. WKU also has only three players who have started every game they have played in the field. Jaylin Rae has started at five of the eight non-pitcher positions this season. Perhaps the Tops don’t have the elite talent, but every player is a threat to do something, and you never know what Head Coach Marc Rardin is going to pull to create some magic for his team.
Who Minimizes Their Greatest Weakness?
WKU sacrifices more than the Israelites after they were sorry. La Tech hardly sacrifices at all. WKU hardly gets an extra base hit. La Tech has guys hitting one out of the park every few games they play. Which team is able to mask its weakness the most? Can WKU get some extra base hits to take the pressure off of “small ball” tactics? There are only so many more HBPs you can take to drive in a run. Then again, La Tech seemingly has more potential with its ability to hit the long ball. But can they manufacture a run to save their lives? Or do they have to rely on .300 hitting against a really good pitching staff?
Battle
Whichever team fights the hardest is most likely to win the series. Who draws a walk on 15 pitches? Who drives in their men in scoring position? Who makes a clutch play? Who plays clean defense? How many times does a pitcher save or minimize an impossible situation? Conversely, when you have the other team on the ropes, do you hit the knockout punch or allow them to hang around or get away with a messy inning?
Both teams win close games. WKU has overcome a clear lack of elite talent (with the exception of pitching) to be a team that finds its way to the finish line despite sometimes being outhit and outdefended. La Tech is clearly the better set of individuals, but are they the better, more united team at the end of the day? Unless this is just three one way blowouts, it just comes down to being fighters and playing hard for nine innings.
It should be a really good series between two legitimately good baseball teams. Looking at the stats, you have to wonder how WKU is where it is. WKU has the record of a great team, but statistically, they look like they could have a losing record. La Tech has the prettier numbers, and they’re certainly incredible at home.
It will be a monumental ask for WKU to take two of three at La Tech, but if they somehow do, the Tops are guaranteed no worse than an opportunity to sweep at home to win CUSA. La Tech can also put itself in the same position if it sweeps the Toppers.
Make sure you tune in.
Friday, 5/10 6:00 on ESPN+
Saturday, 5/11 2:00 on ESPN+
Sunday, 5/12 1:00 on ESPN+
If you can’t make it to Ruston or to the Nick next weekend, as always, tune in to @ TheTowelRackWKU on Twitter/X, and tune in to @ RedoutPodcast for our video content, as well as secondary content, and of course, WKU’s longest running podcast.
GO TOPS!