WKU Basketbal: State of Conference USA — January 3
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the…
In this basketball series, we’ll present you with an overall look at Conference USA, at-large chances, conference standings, and how the conference stacks amidst the rest of Division I. A major change for 2018–19 is the official use of the NET rankings in men’s basketball.
According to the NCAA, the NET relies on game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin, net offensive, and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses. As NET Rankings become available, we will relay those to you, as well. In women’s basketball, we will continue using the RPI.
Conference USA was much improved last season on both sides, but ultimately, C-USA was a one-bid league. There was serious potential for an at-large bid, but UAB, MTSU, and WKU faltered at the end of the season.
There are 68 spots in the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament and 64 in the women’s tourney. 32 Division I conferences each receive one automatic bid for their champion. That leaves 36 men’s teams and 32 women’s “at-large” bids to the NCAA Tournament each year.
According to the NCAA, Tournament selection committees look at these criteria:
Computer rankings (Now mostly the NET, KenPom, Sagarin, BPI, RPI, etc.)
Road and neutral site performance
Strength of conference
Non-conference strength of schedule (SOS)
Record against other tournament teams
“eye test”
Conference USA Tournament seeding is determined in order as follows:
Conference Win/Loss Record
Head-to-head
Winning percentage against each conference opponent in descending order according to the final standings. For example, if the top two seeds split their games, the conference then looks at both teams’ records against the third seed, then fourth, fifth, etc. until a difference in winning percentage is found.
Announced in the offseason, on the men’s side, all teams will play each other in a round robin format during the first month and a half of the conference season. Then they will be sorted according to their standings to determine seeding, competing with their quadrant of the conference. This is designed to help NCAA Tournament seeding and postseason participation by rewarding quality teams equal opportunities for quality wins.
Today, this functions as a de facto Conference USA Basketball preview. Who are the favorites, dark horses, and the crumb bums and shoe clerks?
Men’s Basketball
Conference USA was predicted to go differently. WKU and Marshall were supposed to be the prohibitive favorites, and the rest were supposed to finish somewhere behind them. Instead, six or seven teams have been impressive enough to warrant consideration as a legitimate contender, and those two are now questionable with obvious flaws.
The Favorites
North Texas (13–1, 1–0 C-USA, RV/RV, NET: 38) was picked to finish fourth in Conference USA before the season started. However, no one would have predicted North Texas would be the only C-USA team receiving votes at this point. Surely Marshall, surely Western, maybe Louisiana Tech, but not the Mean Green!
Instead, UNT has one loss, albeit against an abysmal schedule. With two Top 100 caliber opponents and three non-Division I squads on their schedule, UNT is hardly a proven quantity. However, any team that can run through 15 games and lose one is darn good. With the combination of WKU and Marshall being underwhelming, UNT is one of the few C-USA teams with legitimate at-large hopes. Other than the sparkling record and the 38 NET, how can the Mean Green impress the committee, though?
Western Kentucky (7–6, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 121) was a huge favorite nationally to make some noise in 2018–19. WKU has shown an ability to win against solid opponents (vs. Wisconsin, at Arkansas, vs. WVU, vs. St. Mary’s). However, they have also shown a propensity for mysterious lapses in effort (at Missouri State, vs. Troy, at Belmont). Facing a Top 50 schedule missing two point guards really hurt the Tops, but there’s no question the Toppers left three wins out there between their six losses.
Despite the hiccups, WKU still should be a big favorite to get it together and make noise in March. WKU is far and away the most talented team in the conference, and if recent success is an indication, the Tops seem to be pulling together at the right time.
Old Dominion (10–3, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 65) was predicted to be third in Conference USA, and it seems to be about where they are. However, with wins at Syracuse and at home against VCU, the Monarchs are impressive. As always, ODU plays serious defense. The Monarchs have surrendered above 70 points one time in 13 games, and that was November 9 at St. Joseph’s. Expect Old Dominion to be there in March with a chance. They always are. They may be as good as they’ve been in decades this year, however.
Marshall (7–6, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 136) was the other co-favorite with WKU, according to preseason predictions. However, Marshall seems to be clearly missing Adjin Penava, the nation’s leading shot blocker on a team that already didn’t play much defense. However, Elmore and Burks are still there, so surely the Thundering Herd is still good enough to still be considered a favorite, despite losing a number of games to weak opponents. However, this designation as a favorite is in peril for me. Lose too many more, and we’ll have to admit Marshall has slipped.
Dark Horses
Truth be told, Louisiana Tech (11–3, 1–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 82) should probably be amidst the favorites after a really good non-conference slate. However, these guys always seem to fall apart in January. I’m waiting for it to happen. Last year, they had starters leaving the program, and they were never the same. Is La Tech going to get it together? Of note, La Tech does have a quality conference win already, defeating Southern Miss over the weekend.
Also, when stacked against other teams in the conference, mixed with the fact they were picked sixth in the preseason, it’s fair to still label them as a dark horse. Without question, they should be behind UNT, ODU, and WKU. Therefore, Dark Horse it is! (Pending more results)
Southern Miss (8–5, 0–1 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 118) has marched itself into the picture in the first part of the year. Looks can be deceiving, as they are actually 5–4 against DI competition. However, Southern Miss was also a team many pegged as possibly taking a big jump in 2018–19. This is proving true, as the Golden Eagles’ resume is top five in the league currently. Southern Miss could certainly be dangerous moving forward.
Florida Atlantic (9–4, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 174) looks like a classic case of inconsistency. Picked to finish 12th in the league in the preseason, surely the Owls should do better than that. With wins against UCF and Illinois, FAU is proving to be much more respectable than previously thought. However, FAU also lost to Bethune-Cookman and has faced three non-DI opponents already.
Florida International (9–4, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 200) was predicted tenth in the league. However, they seem to be incredibly dangerous offensively. Scoring no less than 70 in all but one game certainly helps the Golden Panthers stay in every game. Only one of four FIU losses came by double digits. A prolific offense certainly makes this team extremely dangerous for anyone in the conference, and its opponents must outscore their explosive offense. They may not win a championship, but they will upset some people along the way.
Hopefuls
UTSA (6–7, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 175) looked like a legit dark horse at the beginning of the year, but a tough schedule and an injury to star player Jhivvan Jackson has left them 3–6 against Division I opponents while going 3–1 outside of the top division. The record is concerning but since Jackson came back from injury on December 8th, the Roadrunners have gone 5–1 with their only loss to Arkansas. He has averaged 20.9 points per game, They are similar to last year, dangerous if you’re not giving your A game.
UAB (8–5, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 172) is certainly difficult to place. The reason I put them here is they struggle to score. They are yet to reach 80, and with the massively explosive teams in this conference, and a great defensive team like ODU, where do wins come from for the Blazers? Most of their great players from recent memory have now graduated. They do have hope, because they have a good overall record, and they can clearly play some defense. Is that enough, though?
Charlotte (3–8, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 273) slots in as the final hopeful, and this is a very fragile, optimistic rating for a 3–8 team predicted to finish 13th in the league. However, playing seven games against Top 100 and/or Power Five competition should be put into perspective. Despite the difficult schedule, Charlotte has been close in most games and beat Oklahoma State at home in their second game of the season. Let’s wait and see when they face Western and Marshall this week.
Literally No Chance
Middle Tennessee (3–10, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 312) is just awful this year, and you can’t blame the kids on the squad. No, that lies firmly on Kermit Davis, doing the typical Kermit thing and leaving wherever he goes in shambles. Several players left as soon as he announced he was leaving for Ole Miss, and it has just left Middle totally inept. Middle is 1–10 against Division I. The lone win came against Charleston Southern at home by three. Ouch/sucks to suck MUTS! On a real note, I really do feel bad for Middle. All of that work and Middle is back to its normal, never-going-to-the-tournament ways immediately.
UTEP (5–6, 0–0 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 247) is really 3–6 overall if you don’t count their cupcake non-DI opponents, and does not look that great this year. They have somewhat competed in some games, including only losing to Marquette by seven. However, the Miners don’t seem to be competitive at this point. I’m willing to change my mind immediately if they can prove themselves.
Rice (5–9, 0–1 C-USA, NR/NR, NET: 272) looks to be a cellar dweller once again. With two wins against Division II opponents, Rice has only three wins in this division of college basketball. The most impressive was against Texas-Rio Grande Valley. It’s safe to say picking them last in the preseason was not a mistake by the prognosticators.
Overall State of Conference USA Men’s Basketball: Anticipatory
With two total games played in conference, nothing is certain. Is North Texas really the favorite? Is WKU or Marshall even going to get a bye in the C-USA Tournament? What about ODU? Is UTSA a big bust this year? So little is known at this point, but give it two weeks and we should have a hierarchy developed.
Prediction
Regular Season Conference Champion: ODU
This is extremely early in the conference season, but ODU feels like a really special team. I like them to win the conference. They’ll be on a mission to prove their worth from last year when they were slighted for their weak schedule.
Conference Tournament Champion: North Texas
UNT seems to be a special team this year. Any team that can win 14 of 15 games is united and playing well. Will they continue that pace? Probably not, but a team that won like that at any point in the season can rattle off three or four in a row at the end without a problem.
Women’s Basketball
Conference USA women’s basketball frankly looks stacked this year. With six teams in the top 150 and three in the top 76, C-USA seems much improved on the top half. However, the bottom half of the league continues to be abysmal. Defending champion Western Kentucky is now seemingly on the outside looking in, but has plenty of talent. Middle looks like it’s finally back to its winning ways with its wound up Keebler elf at the helm, Rick Insell. UAB, ODU, and Rice all look poised to vie for a championship. A few others loom in the shadows hoping to get into the conversation.
Favorites
UAB (12–1, NR/RV, RPI: 136) does not have the resume to show for it, but anyone who can take Tennessee to overtime, beat Oklahoma, and win with ease in every game but one is a legitimate basketball team. UAB was the favorite heading into last year’s conference tournament, and WKU simply turned on the jets and found a way despite having faded at the end of the regular season. The only team receiving votes in the polls (29th in the Coaches), UAB seems poised to have another great year.
Middle Tennessee (9–4, RPI: 63) has a decent non-conference resume, winning a tournament at UNLV and beating Vanderbilt. Middle has been off in recent years, but perhaps its kryptonite, Michelle Clark-Heard, has left for good, and the Blue Raiders seriously look like a legitimate contender again. They still play defense, but it also looks like they can score some points, as opposed to last year, when they were lucky to score 60 on any given night.
ODU (9–3, RPI: 38) has won at Cincinnati and has been competitive in its losses, as well. ODU has been a doormat in C-USA for years, and was predicted to be 11th in the preseason poll. However, a successful start to the year has them looking for some resume builders in conference and has to be considered a contender for the title at this point. What a change in perspective from two months ago! The Monarchs are clearly the surprise in C-USA so far.
Rice (9–3, RPI: 107) has Erica Ogwumike, and as long as she is around, Rice can beat anyone. The preseason Player of the Year in C-USA is leading her team to some decent showings and putting her squad in position to compete for a C-USA regular season title. Can Rice turn the corner and actually make noise later in the year? There’s the question of the hour.
Dark Horses
Western Kentucky (6–8, RPI: 147, SOS: 29) has had far and away the toughest non-conference schedule in C-USA. With a Top 30 schedule so far, WKU played in multiple early tournaments, played Louisville and Iowa at home, Oklahoma and Notre Dame on the road, and Oregon State and Gonzaga at a neutral site. Five of those six are currently ranked in the Top 20 in the country. That being said, WKU has been incredibly porous defensively, struggling to put away the likes of Union (TN) at home. All told, WKU’s most impressive win this year is against Southern Illinois at home. WKU must get back its mojo quickly, or this could easily be a season to forget for the Tops.
Charlotte (8–4, RPI: 76) has been solid to start the year. Charlotte is such a mystery of late. They have had some serious contenders, but generally fade late in the season. Once again, they seem solid, but they’re extremely unproven in big situations. They start out with a bang on Thursday, facing WKU in a battle that could determine contention later in the season.
La Tech (8–5, RPI: 155) has really nice looking wins against Alabama and Ole Miss. Alabama is a Top 100 victory. However, four of five losses to non-Power Five schools leave the Lady Techsters another conundrum in C-USA. Talent is clearly there, but much like some of the other teams in recent memory, can they do anything in March?
Southern Miss (8–5, RPI: 251) is always a contender in Conference USA, despite usually having less talent than most of the league. They’re extremely well-coached, and it seems like more of the same. USM will always be tough while legend Joye Lee-McNelis is at the helm.
Hopefuls
North Texas (7–5, RPI: 266) surprised in the Conference USA Tournament in 2018, making it to the semifinals as an 11 seed. WKU had the most wonderful draw they could ask for, waltzing to the championship without having to face higher than a 10 seed before the final round. North Texas has now earned some respect around the league and is expected to be in the middle of the pack. UNT has been squashed by its elite opponents so far this year. It remains to be seen how good they really are.
Marshall (6–7, RPI: 320) is predicted to finish 13th in C-USA this year, but winning nearly half of their games, regardless of the level of competition (awful), is still seemingly better than a bottom dweller. Perhaps Marshall can wear home uniforms for a game in the Conference USA Tournament in Frisco in March.
UTSA (5–7, RPI: 287) is generously placed here in the hopeful category, and the main reason is their win total. They have faced a few tough foes, but otherwise have simply beaten a few horrible teams on their way to a sub-.500 record. Given track record, this may be as high as UTSA is considered after this next week.
Literally No Chance
UTEP (3–10, RPI: 328) has lost 10 of its last 11, but a few of those in there were better than the result would indicate. However, 3–10 is hideous, and the Miners should not be expected to do much more than their current plight.
FAU (3–10, RPI: 310) has played one Power Five school on its way to a 3–10 record so far. Things just don’t seem to be going right for the Owls right now. However, hope springs eternal at the start of conference play Thursday.
FIU (3–10, RPI: 334) was predicted to be dead last, and they are living up to that billing. After facing Middle and UAB this week, this should become even more of a reality.
State of Conference USA Women’s Basketball: Dichotomy
There is clearly an upper and lower echelon in women’s basketball. Your upper echelon consists of the top half of the conference, which would be your favorites and dark horses. All of those teams are presumably decent basketball teams. However, the next batch of basketball teams are just not very good, with several teams well outside of the top 300 in the country. The bottom seven C-USA squads are outside of the top 250.
Prediction
Regular Season Conference Champion: MTSU
Rick Insell has a heck of a program. Like him or not, he consistently has his teams ready to go and they are always in the conversation. This year, they can score, and that will be the difference in deciding the regular season.
Conference Tournament Champions: ODU
Old Dominion has something special, and they had something brewing together last year after having been a doormat for years. I will go out on a limb, saying ODU will shock C-USA, get a first round bye, and win the tournament.