WKU Basketball: 2022 C-USA Tournament Preview
Can the Tops finally win a conference title game and return to the big dance or will this season end with more March sadness than madness?
It’s hard to believe but it’s that time of year, folks.
As CBSSN’s Jon Rothstein always says, “this is March” and we all know what that means: conference tournament time. So let’s take a look at Conference USA’s bracket for the 2022 tournament in Frisco, Texas.
Obviously a lot to unpack here.
First things first is acknowledging both of the one seeds in North Texas and MTSU. No one is really surprised to see the Mean Green back as a one seed in the West but seeing Middle get the East is still hard for me to believe as they went from being 5-18 last season to 22-9 this season in coach McDevitt’s fourth season as coach for the Blue Raiders.
The two seeds are WKU in the bracket with North Texas and UAB in the bracket for MTSU. Regardless of what happens in this year’s tournament there will NOT be a rematch from last year for the conference title with WKU and North Texas being in the same bracket but that could be a tough matchup for the Tops to go through if they both make it to the semifinals.
UAB has shown flashes of being the best team in the conference but also lost to Marshall and had a few other major head-scratching losses that show what their weaknesses are. When they’re good, they’re great. But when they have a bad game, they are pretty bad.
The three seeds weren’t too surprising with La Tech and FAU but La Tech is still a sneaky team that if they play like they had been in the earlier part of the season, could make a run. FAU had actually led in the East some this season but lost a few crucial games while MTSU and WKU won theirs to get the two game bye. I feel like both of these teams could make a run.
If La Tech win against either Marshall or FIU, they will face the Tops who will have an extra day of rest. I think WKU would love to go on a revenge tour this C-USA tournament. If this happens I’m sure the Tops would be ready to get some payback on the Bulldogs who beat them earlier this season. And if North Texas advance, getting revenge on the Mean Green who have seemed to have had WKU’s number in basketball the last few seasons. And if things go according to plan in the other bracket, we could have a 100 Miles of Hate for a men’s basketball conference title and NCAA tournament bid. Now THAT would be quite an addition to the rivalry.
Four seeds are Charlotte and UTEP. Charlotte have had some decent moments but aren’t very deep outside of their star guard Jahmir Young. UTEP have been a surprising team as well as the Miners have done decent after a slow start but just beat North Texas to end the regular season so who knows how they will do.
Five seeds are Rice and Old Dominion. The Owls looked like they could’ve been a threat in January after beating MTSU and UAB but they have been average at best since those big wins and the Monarchs are definitely not the same team we would usually see around this time of year. This is the second 13 win season for ODU in the last three seasons.
With the last remaining teams of FIU, Marshall, UTSA, and Southern Miss they would have to have an absolutely miraculous run to win five games in five days to get a title. I highly doubt any of these teams could do that but it’s C-USA so don’t be surprised if one of them pulls an upset over someone to advance a round. Marshall would be the only school I could really see getting an upset only because they have the best coach out of the other three teams and they did beat UAB so anything is possible.
So what needs to happen for the Hilltoppers to finally win a conference tournament? Will all the pain we’ve experienced in the C-USA tournament ever end?
It goes without saying how long this NCAA Tournament drought has been.
The last time the Tops went to the Big Dance, I was a freshman at WKU. It was so exciting being a student and seeing your school play in the NCAA’s. I got to go to the Selection Sunday show in Diddle Arena where I saw them draw #1 Kansas in 2013 and got a Sun Belt Champions shirt signed by the team and coach Harper. But that was when I was a freshman. Now it’s 2022 and I graduated from WKU six years ago and there hasn’t been an NCAA Tournament appearance since.
I hate harping on this but I don’t think anyone would have ever thought it would take this long to get back, especially since Stansbury has been here and has landed several four and five star recruits and talented in-state players. Even for people like me and others who love and support the Tops, it’s been disappointing.
For most of us, the C-USA title game is nothing but painful memories. From the missed Bearden layup against Marshall, losing to ODU, not having a tournament in 2020 because of Covid, and not showing up in the beginning of the North Texas game last year and choking in overtime. It’s like Murphy’s law for WKU that whatever could go wrong will go wrong. The fact that Justin Johnson, Taveion Hollingsworth, and Charles Bassey never got to go to the NCAA Tournament is still so sad to me because they worked so hard and definitely deserved it.
Regardless of what happens this year I hope it’s anything other than losing the title game again and I don’t think mine or most of your hearts could take it for the fourth time in a row. I think this team is talented enough to get there again but what could their road look like?
While C-USA play has given us a lot of upsets this season, I still see La Tech beating the winner of FIU/Marshall. I feel like it could be a closer game than we may predict but La Tech is talented enough to win 9 times out of 10.
WKU played La Tech earlier this season in Ruston and lost by one, 74-73. This was a game that WKU should’ve won but thanks to some late calls that were very favorable to La Tech, they were able to keep their home winning streak alive. But on a neutral court, I see WKU wanting this one really bad. The biggest matchup is Kenneth Lofton Jr. matching up against Jamarion Sharp again. That matchup was won by Lofton the first time who had 22 points and 11 rebounds while Sharp only had two points, seven rebounds, and four fouls. The Tops will have to play better inside if they play again.
Say WKU do survive and advance against La Tech and North Texas win against (most likely) Charlotte. Then we have a big rematch that was the title game from last year. North Texas beat WKU earlier this season in Diddle Arena, 65-60. This was a close game in the first half but North Texas kept a steady lead the entire second half. One thing that needs to be better for this game was three points shooting from WKU. UNT shot 10-23 from deep while WKU shot only 2-12 from behind the arc. The Tops will have to shoot better in a rematch against the Mean Green, who will still have a lot of crowd support with it being in their back yard.
Let’s say WKU finally beat North Texas. Who would they play for the title? I would say it’s pretty safe that it would either be MTSU or UAB. Personally I’d rather have UAB again than MTSU.
When UAB played WKU in Diddle this season, they won thanks to a last second three from Jelly Walker to win, 68-65. This was a very close game down the stretch and I think WKU could do better a second time. But what if it’s Middle for a third time?
A part of me would love to see a 100 Miles of Hate matchup for all the marbles but as good as the Blue Raiders have been it would be tough for the Tops. MTSU swept WKU this season for the first time since the Kermit Davis days with Giddy Potts and Reggie Upshaw. Josh Jefferson has become a star player for them and I’m not sure how things would go a third time with everything at stake.
The biggest concern I have with WKU making any type of run is depth. There are only six players that will likely contribute for WKU: Dayvion McKnight, Jamarion Sharp, Jairus Hamilton, Luke Frampton, Cam Justice, and Josh Anderson off the bench. I’ve seen it almost every year, these guys get absolutely worn out by the title game and that’s why they haven’t been able to get over the hump, in my opinion. I feel like Brashear and Cozart could contribute some helpful minutes but I’m not sure how much Stansbury will use his bench in the tournament.
And on top of the general lack of depth, Hamilton just came back from an injury and Frampton was just dealing with some illness but thankfully they seem like they will be able to go in Frisco, hopefully at full health.
The other thing is three point shooting and defense. If WKU can be hot from deep in Frisco I definitely believe they can make a run for a title. But if they have one bad game where they go 2-16 (or something like that) it could be their ticket home instead. Not only do they need to make their own but they need to contest as many threes as their opponents take as possible. It seems like so many players against WKU end up having Steph Curry like numbers shooting from deep so limiting them and letting Sharp hold it down in the paint would be huge.
I believe WKU is talented enough to win but the lack of depth is what I think will keep them from getting a title this season. This team has worked so hard to get to where they are now after starting 2-5 in C-USA but my biggest concern is how much do they have left? Can McKnight keep contributing while playing almost 40 minutes a game for three days against the toughest teams in the conference?
I wish I could say yes but only time will tell. Regardless of what happens this week, I’m happy that this team didn’t lay down and die when most of us, including myself, wrote them off for the rest of the season. The lows were really bad but they rebounded and were able to get a big crowd against Marshall for the last home game of the year.
I feel like if WKU do lose in the tournament this year, a lot of us would say we saw it coming but if they do win the C-USA title, the curse is finally over and arguably the most resilient team in recent memory were the ones to get it done. All we can do now is support these guys and cheer them on in Frisco.
Matt McCay is gonna write a more in depth piece looking at each team in the tournament so look for it here pretty soon.