WKU Basketball: Analyzing The 2022 C-USA Men's Basketball Tournament Bracket
Jared broke it down on the surface. Now let's dig into the stats. Strengths. Weaknesses. Achilles heel?
There’s no question this is one of the most wide open Conference USA Tournaments in years. Everybody, and I really mean everybody, is capable of winning a game. I would say as high as eleven teams could realistically walk into the tournament feeling like they could win it.
For what it’s worth, we have been following TeamRankings.com for live odds on the Conference USA Tournament all season, and here is where they stand heading into the tournament:
Breaking Down the Odds
There are definitely some surprises on here. I was beginning to write my guess and then looked up TR’s numbers, and it really surprised me. Then again, I can see the logic in most of this. The computers have loved UAB all year, and keep in mind, UAB and North Texas did split the regular season meetings. North Texas should be the clear favorite according to the standings, but losing to UTEP to end the regular season at minimum has made it possible to see an upset of the Mean Green.
WKU is considered the next favorite, which surprises me. However, WKU does have the talent and without question has the best top six of anyone in C-USA. However, virtually all the production comes from the top six. WKU is also arguably the conference’s hottest team, only losing one game since February, with the one loss coming down two starters on the road to a really good team.
Somehow Louisiana Tech slots in as the fourth favorite, virtually even with WKU. La Tech did beat WKU early in the season, as well as was one of the few teams in the preseason polls considered a possible favorite to win the regular season. La Tech was mainly brutalized by being in the West Division, but it’s interesting that despite La Tech needing an extra game, the oddsmakers like them as much as WKU, as well as clearly preferring the Bulldogs over Middle Tennessee.
Middle Tennessee, despite being the East Division winner, is considered the fifth most likely team to win the conference. I think that’s a horrendously low level of expectation, considering Middle had some quality wins in conference, proved its mettle, and before last week was one of the hotter teams in C-USA. Perhaps they were knocked down some because of their two losses this past week, but first of all, they are guaranteed a quarterfinal with the bye and have also played extremely well since conference play began. Middle looked like a very average offensive team, but lately, they have been shooting over 40% from three. They have massively improved their offense throughout the year, and the Blue Raider defense has been good all season. I’d put Middle as no less than a fourth favorite. Maybe higher.
After Middle is FAU, which makes sense. The Owls were looking like the second best team in the East, actually beating La Tech as well as dominating the East for the most part. If WKU hadn’t gotten red hot, FAU would have been the two seed. Unfortunately for them, a few losses and a head-to-head loss to WKU and a late season loss to ODU did enough damage to cost them the bye. They lost the bye to WKU on a tiebreaker because of said loss to ODU.
Speaking of Old Dominion, somehow ODU, the fifth seed in the East, is considered next on the list of favorites. I’m not sure exactly why, to be frank. I think a lot of these ratings are inflated due to reputation, but it’s a fair point that Jeff Jones can always make a run. But this year, I’m not sure many teams are as fearful of Old Dominion as in years passed. I would put ODU much lower on the list.
Eighth, ninth, and tenth are all teams I consider pretty reasonable equals. I believe UTEP is the hotter team, having beaten UNT and Rice this past week. But Charlotte and Rice play each other and are both capable of winning a few games. UTEP gets ODU in the second round, so we’ll quickly know how these four will shake out. I’d honestly put my money on UTEP to make the most noise of these four, but that would require beating Middle in the second game. Tough draw. Maybe none of them will make it very far. But don’t sleep on any of these teams.
Marshall is next, and according to the numbers, is the last team with much of a chance to make any kind of run. I would agree with that. Marshall can score, they have some size, and they have a great rim protector in Obinna Anochili-Killen. Marshall was also picked to finish much higher and has had a disappointing season. Before running into a red hot WKU, the Herd had won three of five games. For perspective, they started 0-7 in conference play. They’re playing better basketball and they have a good coach with a unique system who has a history of making unexpected runs. Don’t sleep on the Herd.
Then comes FIU, who I personally believe has massively underachieved. They have some huge size and athleticism but just haven’t put it together. If they can get past Marshall, they could give La Tech some headaches if they’re engaged. But FIU has been sputtering for over a month.
EDIT: FIU lost to Marshall handily in the first round.
The true bottom feeders are USM and UTSA. A combined three wins in conference (they played twice), somebody will have to win that game, but there’s not much hope for those two as they draw FAU, a team that’s been pretty focused and hasn’t really done much wrong. Both USM and UTSA are dangerous and have had some close games. But their season should be over after one of them gets taken down by FAU.
EDIT: USM beat UTSA by 3 in the first round.
The Teams
The Top Four Seeds
1W. UNT
The Story: North Texas (23-5, 16-2 C-USA) has followed up 2021’s magical tournament run, winning four games in four days last season, finishing up by winning a thriller in overtime over WKU. North Texas has moved on after losing significant firepower and is lightyears better than it was last year, only losing five game and two in conference. Up until losing to UTEP, UNT probably had pretty realistic hopes of an at-large bid. Now they may be out of that conversation, but UNT should absolutely be considered the favorite to win C-USA.
Strengths: Three point shooting, scoring defense, rebounding, limiting opponents’ possessions, three point defense, live ball turnovers, coaching, location to the tournament site, fan base
Weaknesses: Assist-to-turnover ratio, offensive firepower, Thomas Bell’s turnovers and fouls, free throw shooting, teams with explosive scoring, depth
Achilles Heel: Free throw shooting and explosive scoring
Summary: North Texas is a really, really good team. But UNT does not score at an elite level. Part of that is playing style, without question. Another quotient is the fact that North Texas just doesn’t have “that guy”. A team with a great player, or a team that can just fill up the stat sheet and score a bunch of points poses a problem. UTEP (conference leading scorer), La Tech (high scoring; Lofton, Jr.), WKU (explosive scoring), UAB (Jelly Walker and high scoring), Kansas (self-explanatory), etc. Essentially, a good enough team that can keep it close and outclass North Texas late, either by more talent or UNT missing some freebies, is a team that can take them down.
1E. MTSU
Story: As a representative of a WKU blog, this is sickening to say, but isn’t MTSU the best story of C-USA? They were AWFUL last year. And they were even worse the year before. But everything has clicked and Middle is far and away the best team in the East. They play defense, and they’ve picked up this little something called “shooting ability” later in the season. Middle may not be the computer’s favorite, but I would put them as my third favorite behind UNT and UAB.
Strengths: Team defense, team concept in general, gang rebounding, fundamental basketball, coaching, pressure defense, FT shooting, general athleticism, size and length, depth, blocks, steals
Weaknesses: Offensive firepower depth, star production power (no elite rebounder, assister, blocker, or stealer), turnovers, shooting percentage, team three point shooting, offense going in reverse to end season, two game losing streak, less FT attempted than opponents, fouling too much (including fouling out)
Achilles heel: Teams that can match athleticism and can score and take care of the ball.
Summary: Middle is still a year away from greatness in my opinion. Coach McDevitt has done a phenomenal job this season. This team is well-coached, but I think MTSU has a weakness of not having big time producers in everything but points. Middle has two guys who can get buckets, but they don’t have a rebounder, a shot blocker, a true floor general, etc. But anyone who sleeps on this team is clueless. I just think bad momentum has happened in the last few weeks and that’s hard to magically turn around immediately.
2W. UAB
Story: Another feel good story of a good program that has recently lost its way but has an alum running the program that has a big name and has the team playing big time basketball. UAB is hard to figure out. Clearly the best team overall in C-USA, this team has had some weird absolute “dud” moments. Then they’ll beat top tier teams like it’s nothing. Who are you really, UAB?
Strengths: Experience, coaching experience, team defense, Jordan “Jelly” Walker, team shooting in all three phases, rebounding, points off turnovers, pressure defense, forcing turnovers, assist-to-turnover, rim protection
Weaknesses: Inconsistency, recent history of disappointment, 3 pt shooting, assists, average fan travel, fouls
Achilles heel: Inconsistency and Jelly Walker’s shooting percentage
Summary: Superstar Jordan Walker is an absolute terror in Conference USA. Watching him in person in Diddle Arena was just incredible. He completely took the team on his back and had zero fear in taking the final shot. And he nailed it. It was one of the more alpha dog displays I’ve seen in person. For a Western reference, it was like Orlando Mendez-Valdez shooting fadeaway threes with a hand in his face in the tournament level of guts. He’s a real alpha dog. But the whole team is good, physical, and really tough to beat if they’re on at all. UAB is just not consistent. Can they pull together three games in a row against quality? That’s the question.
2E. WKU
Story: Since this is a WKU blog, I won’t go on forever about the Tops. Our readers know a ton about WKU. For those tuning in just trying to learn, suffice it to say that WKU has had its ups and downs this year to say the least. An incredible turnaround, WKU was staring down the barrel of a historically bad conference record with a 2-6 start and four of the next five on the road. WKU won all of those five, as well as three others before falling to MTSU in Murfreesboro. Two starters (Jairus Hamilton and Luke Frampton) were out due to an injury and an illness. There are two things to know about WKU: They have an incredibly short bench, but the six players that do play are the best set of a top six C-USA has to offer by far. Western’s top six are literally 92% of their scoring, and WKU scores 76 points per game. To finish off the point, WKU’s other players have combined for 38 points during conference play. That’s a shade over two points per game, y’all. But WKU managed to earn a bye with literally no help beyond their sixth man.
Strengths: Offensive efficiency, coaching experience, offensive firepower, size, rim protection, defensive shooting percentage, free throw margin, best top six in C-USA, length, driving ability, impossible to game plan, ability to go on massive runs, good fan base that travels
Weaknesses: Rebounding, offensive rebounding, depth, situational coaching, focus, inability to finish double digit leads, ability to go completely ice cold for an extremely long time, sometimes as a team completely forgets identity
Summary: WKU is really good, and they’ve proven they can win several games in a row. The question is not whether WKU can do it three games in a row. The first question is whether they can hold up and not get injured. One or two injuries and Western is just a completely different team. But other than the obvious injury factor to a short benched team, WKU’s other concern is if multiple guys just go cold or get tired. I believe WKU can pretty much operate at full capacity with four of six guys having a good to great game. If multiple guys are having really bad games, it’s hard for WKU to overcome. Only playing six means two things: Your quality is higher as long as you’re on, but if your quality goes down, you’re completely screwed. WKU’s six need to average about 13 points per man, meaning if one or two players go for less than ten, somebody else has to pick up the slack. Also, beyond the depth concerns, who has WKU beaten this season? They own one total win over the other top six teams in C-USA. The Tops made their hay beating the lower tier teams.
Other Contenders
3W. La Tech
Story: La Tech looked the best team in C-USA at times this year. They were really the second favorite until UNT started establishing dominance in the middle of January. Until then, La Tech acted like the big dog. But since then, La Tech has absolutely struggled, losing five of ten to finish the season. The Bulldogs made a nice run in the NIT last season, and it looked like they would parlay that into a really good year this year. It’s been a pretty good year, but it’s not been what they hoped. In my opinion, they should be lumped in with the Middle and Western part of the C-USA world. I like them about as much as those two, and luck would have it that the Bulldogs must go through WKU to get to some like North Texas in the semis.
Strengths: Girth, young superstar, explosive guard play, general ability to score in multiple ways across the board, drawing fouls, making free throws, assist-to-turnover, depth,
Weaknesses: Three point shooting other than Archibald and Willis, interior defense/rim protection, Lofton and Williams’ turnovers, rebounding outside of Lofton, very little late season momentum, can’t close out games, Lofton’s production doesn’t impact outcomes, Amorie Archibald’s inconsistency
Achilles heel: Interior defense and lack of statistical depth
Summary: To explain that Achilles heel, I see a lot of elite performers in certain areas. Archibald can explode without warning. Lofton can pull down 15 rebounds routinely. Keaston Willis and Archibald make a ton of threes. But there are one or two guys that do things at an elite level and everyone else is extremely pedestrian in those areas. So if I’m an opposing coach, I can game plan for one guy who can rebound. I can game plan for one or two shooting threats. I can game plan for one guy who seems to be the difference maker. Also, the interior defense is concerning. Lofton brings girth, but he is not an elite defender. Kenny Hunter is the lone rotation player above 6’7” and he barely plays ten minutes per game. There is a ton of size in C-USA. But also, La Tech can absolutely win four games. Don’t sleep on these guys. I spent time poking holes, but this is a team I absolutely respect. They’re just going to need some lucky matchups to fall in place to make a deep run due to lack of size.
3E. FAU
Story: Another good story in C-USA, FAU is a team that is just really balanced. They do everything right and don’t screw many things up. One thing they do really well is rebound, and they just keep coming with bodies, going at least nine deep every game. Sometimes, they go well into double digit players playing meaningful minutes. No one is an elite rebounder, but they all go after the ball. It’s a sign of a really well coached team that no one averages more than 5.3 rebounds, but the team nearly outrebounds the opponent by five rebounds every time out.
Strength: Rebounding, well-coached, no elite offensive team stats, guard play, seven players who contribute 6+ points consistently, live ball turnovers, shooting tons of shots
Weaknesses: Field goal percentage defense, three point defense, rim protection outside of Goldin, no elite scorer (only four total individual games 25+ points all season), no winning streak longer than four all season, zero fan support
Achilles heel: Defense besides rebounding
Summary: FAU is another good C-USA team. Ultimately, they couldn’t lock up the two seed because of their inability to be consistent defensively. They have some really good players, but other than their excellent rebounding, FAU does nothing to help itself defensively. Given the fact that FAU shot 100 shots more than its opponent and outrebounded opponents by nearly 150 for the year (five per game), it’s astounding that FAU only outscored opponents by seven and gave up nearly 70 points per game. FAU will need to get hot and stay hot. The problem is they haven’t had any streak longer than four games all season. Then again, that’s all they need.
4W. UTEP
Story: UTEP hasn’t factored into the C-USA race much at all since before conference realignment. But this year, they actually are hot heading into March, and they have the conference’s leading scorer, Souley Boum. He gets a lot of the pub for UTEP, but they also have two other players averaging well into double figures in Jamal Bieniemy and Keonte Kennedy. The problem is, that’s about all. And they’ve had some injury issues among other things that have derailed some of the consistency. However, UTEP looked like the best team in C-USA last week. That’s a small sample size, but they do have some talent and a lot of momentum.
Strengths: Excellent top three scorers, forcing turnovers, good length at guard, decent rim protection, excellent free throw shooting, play pretty well away from home
Weaknesses: Very little depth, inconsistent, shooting and three point percentage, field goal percentage defense, rebounding, do not produce offensively against good teams
Achilles heel: Lack of depth in all areas
Summary: UTEP is a really good team and I have felt that they could possibly do something in this tournament for a while. Now that they had a really nice week, people may be high on them. But my deepest concern is depth and chemistry. They do not have one player on the roster who has both played all of the games and started all of them. They only have three good scorers and then the rest fall completely off under single digits in scoring. They have absolutely no rebounding depth whatsoever. They also just don’t play that many players whether people are healthy or not. So UTEP is a good team with some explosive ability, but I don’t see enough there to point to a deep run. I think there’s too much upheaval and not enough depth in many areas.
4E. Charlotte
Story: Charlotte is yet another capable team. I think their biggest issue is defense. They have won four of five, but they have had some absolute stink bombs for games. We’re talking terrible offense and giving up massive points. And it happened so often to Charlotte that they have a solid winning record but give up nearly a full point more than they score. Giving up over 71 points per game while barely scoring 70 is just not a formula for a deep run.
Strengths: Shooting percentage, assist-to-turnover, free throw shooting, coaches maximizing a team that can get dominated on some nights, five of top six players are very efficient offensively, Jahmir Young’s freakish production
Weaknesses: Outmatched in almost every statistic, depth a little shaky, only two double digit scorers, little fan support away from home
Achilles heel: Defense and a one man show
Summary: Jahmir Young is an incredible player. At 6’1” he leads the team in points, rebounding, and assists and is third in blocks. He shoots well from everywhere and barely fouls once per game. So he’s great, but if a team can keep him at bay, who’s going to lose to Charlotte? The only other serious threat is Austin Butler and he’s more of a steady Eddie type of scorer than an explosive game changer. Charlotte could be a good team, but they’re way too inconsistent to be a serious contender.
5W. Rice
Story: Rice had a lot of potential to do more than they did this season, but they ended up where they usually do in C-USA, finishing at or below .500. But Rice is interesting. They own elite wins (vs. UAB and vs. MTSU), but they have been awful lately. Losers of 7-of-8 conference games, it stinks to see a pretty decent team fizzle to the point of irrelevance. But I wouldn’t rejoice if my team of choice was to draw Rice. They run a weird offense with a high post do-it-all-but-shoot big man who essentially initiates the action.
Strengths: Unique to prepare for, solid team that doesn’t beat itself, solid scoring offense, three point shooting in upper 30%, solid in rebounding and assists, Max Fiedler does everything, prolific trips to the free throw line
Weaknesses: The focus of the offense is not a threat from deep, defense in general, zero rim protection besides Max Fiedler, on a significant losing skid, not much fan support
Achilles heel: Defense in general, especially inside
Summary: Rice actually holds opponents to a reasonable three point percentage (<35%), but they also still give up a ton of points and opponents shoot a significant amount more field goals than the Owls. Rice does get to the free throw line significantly. And Max Fiedler’s stat line is amazing: 10-8-4-1-1, meaning he contributes everywhere, while also committing less than two fouls per game and turnovers hang around two per game. For a big man handling the ball constantly, he’s elite in several areas. Rice could easily upset some people just by being a little odd and being good offensively. If a team gets cold or for some reason can’t get inside or falls in love with shooting outside, Rice could easily beat a few teams.
5E. Old Dominion
Story: Old Dominion has this reputation and computers and prognosticators alike seem to like them. They’re well-coached, but this team is going to have to be its very best to even hope to make some kind of deep run. This is not the ODU of the past few years, and Jeff Jones has his work cut out for him if he wants to make an impact in this tournament. Old Dominion still plays its normal grinding style, but they don’t have the elite scorers, nor do they have the elite defense and size they have had in years passed.
Strengths: Coaching, weird system, shooting percentage defense, boring the opponent to death, rebounding, fundamentals, rim protection
Weaknesses: Shooting at all three levels, three point defense, scoring defense, assist-to-turnover, depth, no more than two wins in a row all year, longest trip in C-USA to Frisco
Hoping to Make a Run
6W. UTSA
Story: Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace are gone, and UTSA is just struggling to figure it out. Jacob Germany is a really good player, but other than that, the AAC is probably drooling at this juggernaut of a basketball program. Have fun with that…
Strengths: At least they’re not far from home, Jacob Germany, several close games that have just slipped away, depth, three 14 point scorers, rebounding, recent win vs. Rice
Weaknesses: Shooting from all levels, defense, assist-to-turnover (both sides of ball), one three point shooter above 34%
Summary: UTSA may find a way against USM, who literally has one win by one point. That one win, though was against UTSA. But if UTSA finds a way past USM, they draw FAU, who has been solid all year. If they find some miracle way past FAU, they then get UAB in the quarters. It’s really hard to see UTSA doing much besides winning against USM.
6E. FIU
Story: FIU felt like it had a decent team, but since conference started and they notched a few wins, they have absolutely gone ice cold. The Golden Panthers cannot buy a win. FIU has only one win against a team with a winning record, and that was against a WKU team reeling during a five game losing streak. So despite FIU’s obvious talent, size, and athleticism, something has happened in Miami and they’re just not a good basketball team this year.
Strengths: Size, athleticism, coaching is pretty solid (so is his hair), rim protection, several solid three point shooters, depth
Weakness: Turnovers, rebounds despite talent and size, shooting percentage from top scorers, no elite rebounders, lack of chemistry
Summary: I challenge you to go look at the stats and explain how FIU is a horrible team. Somehow they are, but they have some elite performers in several areas. This team is dangerous simply because of the talent. Tevin Brewer has 165 assists. Clevon Brown and Seth Pinkney combine for 3+ blocks per game. FIU’s top three scorers shoot 34%+ from three. They have depth. They pass the eye test in terms of whether they are a decent basketball team. I don’t get it, but I still stand by them being able to win a couple of games.
7W. USM
Story: USM has struggled since Doc Sadler left. They’re just not very good as a team. They do have some talent, and they seem to still be relatively engaged despite getting beaten for the last 14 games in a row. That’s brutal, but this team isn’t a complete walkover. They’ve had some close games and have some athletes. Their main issue is simply talent. They do not compare in any statistical category, and it’s just unfortunate. However, what doesn’t show up on the stat sheet is athleticism. They do have some guys who can run and jump, and when athletes get going and juiced up, they can do some amazing things. As long as teams don’t let USM get going, they should be fine. But don’t allow the Golden Eagles to get confidence or they could outshoot you on that one night.
Strengths: The Sun Belt isn’t as strong, Brett Favre, not as racist as they used to be (ok now I’m done), length, athleticism, five guys that can score points, post production, good post depth, turnovers
Weaknesses: Injuries (two starters), shooting, defense, Tyler Stevenson and Isaih Moore are the only elite producers
Summary: It’s hard to see a team that has lost 14 suddenly come alive, but the Golden Eagles are an unusual “awful” team. They do have talent, and they do have a way to beat people if they’re given the chance. This is not a complete slouch of a roster, and there is opportunity to steal one or two for this team if they’ll just engage and see what happens.
7E. Marshall
Story: Despite being seeded as the de facto 14 seed, Marshall probably has the best chance of any of the four teams that need to win five games in five days to actually do so, or at least make a run at it. Before playing red hot WKU, Marshall had won three of five games against good competition (including UAB). Before that stretch of success, Marshall had started 0-7 in conference and won only one game prior to their final seven games. Marshall was also predicted to finish in the top half of C-USA and ended up the East’s seventh seed, a shocker. But the Herd are still talented and capable. And the coach has had a knack for stealing a surprise win or two in the C-USA Tournament.
Strengths: Unique offense, size, very good NBA level coaching philosophy, Taevion Kinsey’s experience and athleticism, shooting philosophy, explosive ability, unique ability to use finesse to get layups, talent
Weakness: Chemistry, interior defense (besides Anochili-Killen), prolific fouling, live ball turnovers, three point shooting, field goal shooting, rebounds (especially defensive), three losses to end season, minimal fan support pretty likely as bottom seed
Summary: My advice would be don’t sleep on Marshall. If your team draws them, hope they’re worn out from having to play an extra game or two. Otherwise, a Marshall team with focus could be really dangerous. They may not have pulled it together this year, but scoffers beware with this one. They’re playing lightyears better than their record and are yet another dangerous team in this C-USA minefield.
Summary
Now that I’ve broken it down for you, what say you? Who’s going to win it all? I have carefully studied each team as WKU has played them, as well as done my own research prepping for this article. Statistics are not the only story, but they sure can paint towards a team’s tendencies.
This thing is wide open, folks. As I wrote this article, and frankly as I’ve watched all season, it’s remarkable how many pretty good teams are in this conference this season. Some may not have shown it (like FIU and Marshall), but I don’t believe there is a complete goat in this field at all. There’s no team that I would point at say, “Nope. They don’t have a prayer.” Every team has an inexplicable loss, or at least a head scratcher in the case of North Texas. With only two losses in conference and five overall, North Texas obviously doesn’t have as many mistakes to ponder. However, losing to UTEP really brings the whole thing into question, right? UNT had everything to play for in terms of an at-large bid, momentum for the tournament, and just an ability to finish off an incredible season with a tough road win. Instead, now everyone else should feel rejuvenated. The top dog lost their last game!
Then again, Grant McCasland is still the best coach in C-USA in my opinion. He’s young and doesn’t have as much of a track record, but some of the stuff he’s pulled in a small sample size is just incredible. I think UNT should still be the stone cold favorite. They only suffered two losses in conference against two good teams who they beat one other time this year. They’re the only team in C-USA with a win against every team they played.
Next is UAB for me. They’ll be on the other side of the bracket, and frankly I really like their draw. Middle is a flawed team that can struggle to score. FAU is a team that UAB should just beat by being more talented. Old Dominion is the one team that would be most likely to give UAB trouble, but ODU would have to win two games, including beating Middle and UTEP, in order to even get there. Can you tell I love UAB’s draw? I like them to get to the finals, but I don’t think they’ll win it.
The next favorite for me should be WKU. Western is arguably the conference’s hottest team, given that the only loss in two months was on the road with two starters injured. But the conference’s hottest team award goes to the Tops or the Mean Green for sure. Semantics. But Western is frustratingly the absolute least likely team to survive any kind of adversity due to petri dish level depth. But Western’s top six could probably match up against most teams in the country and be competitive if the opponents also only played six. They’re very good and all can drop in monster outings.
I would have put MTSU ahead of WKU without hesitation if Middle had not lost twice last week, while also reverting to old habits of shooting poorly. Has Middle come back to Earth and is now on a downward skid? Have they played with too much future luck juice and now reality is setting in? They have had an extraordinary run. It would be great for the rest of the conference if MTSU imploded this year in the tournament. Otherwise, they could immediately stake claim of C-USA dominance once again.
But I still deeply value the value of the bye and would put La Tech as the fifth most likely team to win C-USA. However, as I said in some other sections, I see a potential WKU/La Tech battle as a potential barn burner. But I like WKU’s size and talent depth in that one. I think in the first game, WKU will come out pissed at blowing that huge lead and feel like they allowed their season to go off of the rails because of that meltdown. La Tech will have to play a special game to beat WKU with all of that motivation. Or WKU could come out completely flat and crap all over themselves. That’s entirely possible. But if La Tech can get past WKU, they then get a likely revenge match on UNT and then would play whoever comes out of the other side. That is four freaking tough games in a row to try to win. Marshall or FIU are top half of the league level talented, then WKU, then UNT, then UAB or Middle. Brutal. And they’re virtually guaranteed three of those four will be there due to byes.
Next up is FAU. I don’t mind the draw for them. In the first game, they get what should amount to cupcake city between USM and UTSA. That’s a nice warmup game. They will have the nerve advantage against UAB, a team with no recent history of success that will be nervous and anxious without a clue how to actually do it at the Division I level. So yes, UAB should win that, but FAU has some good wins, and they are very solid. Don’t be surprised if they beat UAB. If they can, they get whoever comes out of Middle, UTEP, and ODU, all of which would be revenge games. Then they have the championship game. As tough as C-USA is, isn’t that a decent draw?
Next on my list is UTEP. I like UTEP a lot. They have the conference’s leading scorer, but they also have other players. They also have momentum and the confidence of upsetting UNT to end the season. So they’re riding high and they get a tough draw in ODU. Without question, UTEP seems more talented with more momentum. But Jeff Jones is sneaky, brilliant, and experienced. Can UTEP navigate through the first game? If they can, I believe things open up for them. Middle is a team that could struggle against a talented team with multiple scorers. If MTSU isn’t on, they could easily be upset. I don’t mind the matchup for UTEP against Middle. Then we’ve talked about the rest of the bracket if they get there. That’s not that bad and they avoid a really tough opponent until the semis (if UAB is even there in the semis).
Rice is the next best team for me, but I think Charlotte is right there, as well. That should be an interesting, defenseless game. I’ve liked Rice since seeing them in person with that weird style that I’ve talked about. When you get in a tournament, unique is extremely difficult to prepare for in 12 hours. Think of the teams that have won tournament in the past: North Texas (weird slow down style that’s fun to watch), ODU (paint drying), Marshall (crank it from everywhere, Middle (1-3-1 as a base defense). So Rice is another weird one that could create problems. Do I think they’ll win? No. They haven’t won jack lately. But they’re still capable.
Charlotte is next, and I know I’m not varying much from the standings, but I really believe this is the order of most likely to win. I like Charlotte. They have a “dog” who can drop 20+, but they don’t have much else. And they don’t really play much defense. So I don’t love Charlotte for the long term, but I think they’re a team that has shown capability in spurts this season. They’ve been solid but not consistent all year. I don’t generally pick teams to make a run that haven’t won many games in a row all year. They’re not a team I look at who could actually win it.
ODU is everybody’s Cinderella. I could see it, but I’m not buying it. I don’t see much from them this year. I don’t think they have as much talent, and I don’t think they’re as locked in as some of the other ODU teams. I think they’re going to have a talent deficit in most matchups, and I don’t think they’re as good as a team, either. They had ample opportunity to string wins together during the season after nice wins, and they would come out and lay eggs. Then they would win a big game and repeat the same process of disappointment. So I’m not a huge fan of their chances. But again, that weird style could mess with the very best team on any given night.
Marshall is the only other team with any kind of prayer of really doing anything. Will they actually do anything? Probably not. I think they will likely beat FIU, just because FIU has been so poor of late. But I just don’t see Marshall really giving La Tech that much trouble. And if Marshall was to beat La Tech, they would draw WKU, who slept walked through two easy wins last week against them.
FIU is next, and I reiterate my belief in their talent. However, I think they’re doomed. For whatever reason, this team just hasn’t pulled it together. I doubt they’ll survive past Tuesday, but Wednesday against La Tech feels like an awful matchup for them.
UTSA will possibly beat USM, or they won’t. Who knows? They’re both bad teams that still seem fairly engaged despite being the bottom feeders. But I don’t like them against FAU at all. FAU is too solid and UTSA just struggles too much on both ends.
USM is just clearly the worst team in C-USA and that’s unfortunate. There’s not much to say, other than in theory, they do have some talent and could win a game or two if things fell in a really odd direction. But don’t count on it.
Prediction
I have already declared my MTSU/UAB side winner. I believe ultimately UAB is going to come out of the heap on that side. UAB is just too good, Jordan Walker is too much of a man, and there’s much more firepower on the other side of the bracket. I think UAB is clearly the most talented team on that side of the bracket, and I believe whoever they face, they should be the favorite and they should win. They have choked several times this year, so I won’t be shocked if they lose. But the safe money is on UAB making it to the championship game.
On the other side, I have no frickin’ clue. There are so many interesting matchups, but I think it’s going to come down to the winner of La Tech/WKU and North Texas to go to the championship. Here’s what I think about La Tech for WKU, since we are the WKU experts: I really like the matchup for WKU against La Tech. Why? Size. Athleticism. More talent depth. I think WKU has more options. WKU can focus on boxing out Kenneth Lofton, Jr., and playing tight D on Amorie Archibald and they should be fine. Keep in mind, WKU had a 17 point lead on La Tech on the road and blew it. That’s a matter of just blowing it. WKU allowed an immediate run and La Tech used some home cooked momentum to overcome WKU at the buzzer. WKU is playing lightyears better than it was then, and frankly La Tech is not the same team feeling invincible like it was back then, either. I like WKU big time in that matchup. I liked it last time and I like it again.
So we move on to WKU vs. UNT for a spot in the championship. Without question, UNT is the best team in this league. But let me ask you, who has UNT struggled against this year? UAB. La Tech. Kansas. WKU. UTEP. Talented teams that can explode offensively despite UNT’s incredible defense. UNT played way harder against WKU and I believe that was the difference in that game. I believe WKU has 1,000 reasons for revenge against UNT, and I think UNT has been knocked down a notch confidence wise, as well as giving other teams ammunition to not be afraid. I like WKU’s ability to explode, and I like Western’s ability to protect the paint inside. I think WKU has enough directions to go to score, and I’m going to pick WKU because I’ve liked that matchup from the start. Western lost that first game, but I think it was because of some circumstance and I think UNT was on a different level at that point. WKU is now on a different level from that January meeting.
The Championship Game: WKU vs. UAB
In a revenge tour for WKU with one final stop, the two former coaches who played each other 1,000 times at rival SEC schools meet again, this time for the C-USA championship. Andy Kennedy and Rick Stansbury know each other quite well, and it would be a fascinating matchup of two old coaches with tons of experience. Last time out, Jordan “Jelly” Walker hit a three with a couple of seconds left to seal the victory for UAB. UAB controlled most of it, but WKU played probably its best game of the season up to that point and nearly pulled off the upset by pulling even (and holding a temporary one point lead) in the final minute of the game. Since then, WKU has lost two games. UAB has only lost three. But UAB did get in a funk right after the WKU game, losing to Marshall and Old Dominion within a matter of 15 days. UAB’s only other loss would be to North Texas by one after being ahead late. UNT made several ridiculous shots to steal that one in Birmingham. WKU only lost to Middle Tennessee twice, one of which Middle scored 93 points in a complete offensive explosion. The other, WKU was down two starters.
So what is going to happen Saturday when the Tops and Blazers get after it? I honestly believe it would be another great game, and I believe the odds will finally even out, and WKU will win its first championship game in four tries in Conference USA. If WKU gets the exact draw just laid out, they will be motivated in every round and extremely focused. I like the matchup with each of those teams, even though they are all really good teams. I think they key for WKU would be to hang around on the boards with UAB. If WKU could do that and make some shots, I think the Tops would finally bring home the hardware.
Regardless of what happens, let’s enjoy it. It’s going to be a great one.
Safe travels, everyone.