WKU Basketball: Conference USA Preview
WKU Basketball comes up on Conference USA play with a record most anticipated to not be possible. At 11-3, WKU has announced itself as an immediate Conference USA contender for 2024.
As the calendar changes, there is much to be excited about if you’re a Western Kentucky Hilltopper Basketball fan. Under the tutelage of first year Head Coach Steve Lutz, the Tops have started with an 11-3 record, own a seven-game winning streak, and have completed their best non-conference performance since the 2001-2002 season. While that part of the schedule has finished, a second life now awaits the Tops regarding league play. With the recent additions and life after conference realignment across all sports, it looked like WKU would be in the middle of a mixed bag of C-USA basketball opponents. Saturday afternoon in Diddle Arena will be the first of many tests as they’ll open conference play against a potential future rival in the Liberty Flames.
Summing up Conference USA
(in order of appearance on the Topper schedule)
Liberty Flames (January 6th home, March 9th away)
Just like WKU, the Flames are coming in hot off of a great non-conference. For a conference opener, Saturday’s game comes with a lot of implications. Potentially, the title as CUSA frontrunner could be determined between these two teams as their goal is a CUSA Tournament Championship with a berth in the NCAA Tournament. It’s also only the Flames’ third true road game of the season after spending all but two of their non-conference games either in Lynchburg or at a neutral site.
Before the season began, Liberty was the predicted winner of CUSA and currently sits among the top 80 teams in the KenPom rankings. Despite losing their leading scorers in the transfer portal, the Flames haven’t missed a beat in terms of replacing and retooling their ball club. Kyle Rode is their Conference POTY candidate, as he leads the Flames in total offense and shows off some defensive chops as a two-way forward.
This rivalry will have plenty of opportunity to immediately explode, bookending the conference schedule for both teams. If this was remotely intentional by the Conference USA office, good for them. As fans, you want to see awesome matchups in critical moments. So often, the contenders decide most of their hierarchy in late January. It’s never the last game of the season that decides superiority. This could be exactly what you dream of if both teams ends up being the 1 and 2 seed.
Sam Houston State Bearkats (January 10th away, February 1st home)
Sam Houston is currently finding their way in C-USA after leaving the Western Athletic Conference, where they’ve had some successful seasons. After beginning the season with road games against Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, & Ole Miss, it’s been a tough start in Huntsville. One bright spot is Davin Barnes, who’s among the top five players in the conference, averaging 14.3 points per game. Despite the tough schedule, Sam Houston still sits at 7-8 overall heading into CUSA play.
Perhaps the Bearkats open with the most brutal slate, drawing top 80 La Tech, the surprising Hilltoppers, and then host Middle Tennessee and Liberty. If they can escape that at 2-2 or better, perhaps SHSU could make a run at contention.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks (Jan. 13th home, Feb. 10th away)
Ray Harper’s ball club entered ‘23-’24 with numerous challenges after their transition. Good news: They’ve struck gold in Xavier transfer KyKy Tandy. He is on the top of the list of leading scorers in CUSA. The Gamecocks enter the new year on a four-game winning streak, looking forward to progressing their hopes of shocking some teams.
Despite the four game streak, the Gamecocks only sit one game above .500. Are they the team of December, or was that just fool’s gold against weak competition? Two of those wins were against non-Division I opponents, while the other two games were a blowout win at UALR (decent), and a quality road win at Tarleton State. Before that, the results were much more pedestrian.
Ray Harper is one of the more proven coaches in Conference USA, having won national championships at lower levels, while also winning Sun Belt, OVC, and A-Sun Tournament titles. He is one of few coaches with an NCAA Tournament win (Western Kentucky vs. Mississippi Valley State, 2012). Don’t count them out, especially given how presumably motivated Ray would be to get a crack at the school that allowed his contract to expire in 2016.
New Mexico State Aggies (Jan. 18th away, Feb. 17th home)
The Aggies have had their recent years with NCAA Tournament appearances in the Western Athletic Conference days. This season, they’ve entered with some question marks after roster turnover & coaching changes. They’re under year one of the Jason Hooten era, who coincidentally was hired away from Sam Houston last season. They’re trying to find their identity with multiple newcomers including Femi Odukale, Jalin Jackson-Posey, Robert Carpenter, & former WKU guard Jordan Rawls, who also leads the team in steals & assists.
I would not label this series a “gimme” with NMSU; they still have a shot at turning things around come January. NMSU sits at 6-9 overall and poses a viable threat, even if they end up a sub-.500 overall team. Two of their nine losses were by a single possession and another two were losses in overtime. I believe we would look at them differently if they had a few more possessions go their way thus far. Watch out for NMSU later in the season to play spoiler if nothing else.
UTEP Miners (Jan 20th away, Feb. 15th home)
In terms of experience, UTEP has to be the deepest group of returning players. Tae Hardy is a quality All-Conference level player, averaging 14.4 points per game. He is a grinder, leading all players in C-USA in minutes. Things are looking to improve in El Paso as they move forward with their season.
Besides MTSU, UTEP may be the one school in CUSA that has not lived up to its potential in terms of wishing for a little better record. A weaker schedule with several non-Division I schools should have UTEP at or above ten wins. However, they also boast a win at Cal. Inconsistent like many teams in the mountain time zone, If UTEP can find a way to win some games east of El Paso, watch out. They are well-coached and were quite good despite being washed away in a murderer’s row Conference USA last season.
Florida International Golden Panthers (Jan. 25th home, March 2nd away)
As FIU tries to get things going with several returning players who had lesser roles last season, they’ll be doing well to finish in the middle of the pack in CUSA. Sophomore guard Arturo Dean has been heavily relied on to lead the Golden Panthers. Don’t let the record fool you…they’re still among the top teams in the conference in field goal percentage. Regardless of how the Tops finish in this series, they’re going to probably need some offense. FIU scores 78 points per game. A couple of things FIU absolutely has going for it: Jeremy Ballard is a heck of a coach in an incredibly difficult place to win, and regardless of the win and loss column, the man always has some magnificent hair…
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (Feb. 3rd home, Feb. 24th away)
MTSU has had a head-scratcher of a season so far. Other than Liberty, many believed that the Tops’ most hated conference rivals would return to the top of the conference after being selected as a co-favorite. “Sadly”, they’ve run into bad luck in terms of injuries & a poor start has brought them closer to the cellar. Jared Coleman-Jones is a rebounding machine, averaging 6.8 boards per game & can still keep MTSU in some contested games.
When specifically looking at MTSU vs. WKU, you never know what happens in a rivalry game, and you also never know what each team will look like a full month into the conference season. Keep in mind WKU does not see Middle until February. Thus far, though, MTSU does look a shell of its potential self compared to preseason expectations. All kidding and rivalry bias aside, that’s absolutely terrible for those players in the program to have something out of their control affect the direction of their season. Instead of CUSA contender, MTSU sits outside the top 300 in the country in virtually every ranking system. They will need a miracle turnaround to contend for a CUSA title.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (Feb. 7th away, Feb. 28th home)
A team WKU will not see until its ninth conference game, is there a potential dark horse looming in Ruston? Heck, are they a co-favorite ahead of WKU with Liberty? La Tech’s home record is historically great in C-USA play and they have the talent to continue that historical tendency. Isaiah Crawford is a name to know: He was selected as the Preseason Player of the Year. Texas Tech transfer Daniel Batcho has been his partner in crime, both averaging double digits; they’re also a huge defensive threat with rebounds & steals. We feel like this could be a tough series, with possibly a third game in March. I would not take this team lightly on its worst night.
La Tech was predicted a distant fourth behind WKU in the preseason, but the Bulldogs project above that prediction heading into CUSA. Historically, La Tech Basketball looks great in the non-conference portion of the season and then absolutely flatlines late in the year. Will that trend continue, or will they really contend for a Conference USA title? That remains to be seen, but the Bulldogs bring a sub-80 NET ranking into conference play.
What to Watch For in Conference USA
Conference USA is shaping up to be what we think is a three horse race: Liberty, La Tech, and WKU, in no particular order. Every other team has shown some weakness, some inconsistency, a lack of elite ability, or perhaps trends downward into conference play.
Several other teams trend upward, including Jacksonville State, a team that was absolutely picked to finish dead last by everyone, only receiving three points above the minimum nine in preseason voting (12). However, they sit above .500 with a couple of recent quality wins and a respectable 15 point loss to Wisconsin. Perhaps New Mexico State could make some late game adjustments and clean up their mistakes and be a good team quicker than we think.
But ultimately, it’s probably Liberty, La Tech, and WKU. Each of those has made its claim as a good team, one way or another, with quality wins and few head scratching losses between them.
Conference USA should have some good matchups, including what could be the best of them all right out of the gate. Liberty at WKU on Saturday on CBS Sports Network in combination with the matchup on March 9 could end up deciding the 1/2/3 spots in the Conference USA Tournament. The Tops and Flames finish at Liberty to bookend Conference play for the two teams.
Other Games of Note:
UTEP at New Mexico State, 1/4 7 PM CBSSN
Jacksonville State at WKU 1/13 4 PM CBSSN
Liberty at La Tech 1/14 2 PM ESPN2
MTSU at WKU 2/3 7 PM ESPNU
WKU at La Tech 2/7 6 PM ESPN+
WKU at Jacksonville State 2/10 4 PM ESPN+
La Tech at Liberty 2/10 7 PM ESPNU
NMSU at UTEP 2/10 8 PM ESPN+
WKU at MTSU 2/24 6:30 PM ESPN+
La Tech at WKU 2/28 7 PM ESPN+
WKU at Liberty 3/9 12 PM ESPN+
MTSU at La Tech 3/9 2 PM ESPN+
It’s that wonderful time of year where we have enough data to feel something, but we have absolutely no idea what will come of the madness that is college basketball after football is over. Get ready.