WKU Basketball: Forecasting WKU's NCAA Tournament Round of 64 Game vs Marquette
The Hilltoppers make it to The Big Dance for the first time in 11 years and face off against one of the top teams in the nation, 2-seed Marquette. Here's everything you need to know for the big game.
Overview
On Friday, March 22, 2024, the Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers face off against the Marquette University Golden Eagles in the Round of 64 of the 2024 NCAA tournament. 15-seed Western Kentucky (22-11) is coming off of a 78-71 win over UTEP to win the Conference USA Tournament Championship, punching their ticket to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013. 2-seed Marquette (25-9) is coming off of a 73-57 loss to UCONN in the Big East Tournament Championship, but still earned at at-large bid to play in the NCAA Tournament for their third year in a row. As of publication, ESPN’s BPI favors Marquette with a 94.4% chance of winning in the first round over Western Kentucky.
WKU vs. Marquette History
Western Kentucky, led by my grandfather Jim Richards, fell to Marquette 79-60 in the only ever meeting between these two teams in the first round of the 1976 NCAA Tournament. The Golden Eagles made their way to the Elite Eight where they lost to the eventual national champions, Indiana. Marquette then went on to win the national championship the very next year.
Notable Statistics
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry- 15.2 points per game
RPG: Babacar Faye- 5.6 rebounds per game
APG: Don McHenry- 2.4 assists per game
Marquette Stat Leaders
PPG: Kam Jones- 16.8 points per game
RPG: Oso Ighodaro- 6.9 rebounds per game
APG: Tyler Kolek- 7.6 assists per game
WKU Team Stats
80.6 PPG
46.8% FG
34% 3PT
39.8 RPG
13.2 APG
7.7 SPG
13.7 TO
Marquette Team Stats
78.3 PPG
47.8% FG
35.8% 3PT
32.8 RPG
15.8 APG
8.6 SPG
9.9 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
Western Kentucky has to find a way to get Don McHenry going. McHenry is a 6’2” guard and has led the Hilltoppers in scoring for the entire season. He also earned the Conference USA Tournament MVP for his amazing performance in Huntsville. While Don finished the conference season poorly, he really turned it on when it mattered the most. He had 18 points to lead all scorers in the semifinals against Middle Tennessee and 25 points to lead all scorers in the finals against UTEP. When Don is playing well, the Hilltoppers are playing well. During WKU’s four-game losing streak to close out the conference season, Don had a high of 13 points against Louisiana Tech and a low of 4 points against Florida International. When McHenry is scoring that low, the Hilltoppers really seem to struggle. There has only been one game where McHenry has scored over 20 points and WKU ended up losing and it was a 79-77 loss to Sam Houston, Conference USA’s number one seed. If McHenry can get over 20, it raises the Hilltoppers’ chances drastically. Not only does it help WKU’s chances offensively, but it means someone on Marquette is having to work defensively to stop him, neutralizing at least one if not two of Marquette’s several scoring threats.
WKU needs to bring the same defensive energy that they had in Huntsville with them to Indianapolis. Western Kentucky just looked like they wanted it more than whoever they were facing. You could really see this on the defensive side of the ball. The Hilltoppers allowed their opponents to score over 70 points just one time out of the three games they won in Huntsville, and even that was a 79-71 win over UTEP in the finals. In addition, Western Kentucky forced their opponents to an average of 17.7 turnovers throughout those three games. If the Hilltoppers are going to bring that same energy on defense, they will have a good chance of winning this game and completing the upset. One more thing to add about the Western Kentucky defense in Huntsville, WKU pushed their defense beyond the three-point line which completely discombobulates an opposing offense. Nobody practices with the defense guarding 15 feet beyond the three-point line. Therefore, it can really cause the opposing offense some trouble. Western Kentucky needs to bring that same defense with them to Indianapolis to have their best chance of winning.
To upset Marquette and move on to the round of 32, Western Kentucky needs to play like they’re Western Kentucky. We have heard coach Lutz all season saying that when our players play unselfish basketball and play for the letters on their chest, they are a much better team, and it shows. When the Hilltoppers are playing selfish basketball and not playing as a team, they start to fall apart. WKU isn’t the most talented team in the country, and the only way they will make a run in the NCAA Tournament this season is if they come together as one and all play for Western Kentucky to win. There have been moments throughout the conference where certain players will try to play hero ball by forcing up bad, contested shots or driving in and forcing a shot while being guarded by multiple defenders with plenty of time on the shot clock. This type of play doesn’t work unless you get lucky and make those shots. When every player focuses on doing the right things at the right time, the chances for an upset go up tremendously. WKU has made it this far by recognizing the bigger picture and playing for the team. If they can’t do this in Indianapolis, there will be little to no chance for Western Kentucky to move on.
Bonus Key from the Editor: WKU must disrupt Marquette’s elite passing ability.
Marquette is a perfect 7-0 when they reach a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. They are a much more pedestrian 18-9 when they do not. Breaking it down even more, they are only 2-6 when they do not have a positive assist-to-turnover. If WKU wants to win, they must create problems for Marquette. Marquette averages just below ten turnovers per game, meaning they take care of the ball. They also average over 15 assists per game, putting them in the top twenty is assist-to-turnover ratio. They are sixth in turnover margin. WKU is tied for 147th in turnover margin. They are 272nd in assist-to-turnover. To hammer the point home, Western Kentucky is 320th in turnovers per game. If WKU is somehow close in these areas against Marquette, WKU neutralizes its biggest weakness in the matchup, and then it is down to just getting stops and making buckets.
Marquette
Marquette is going to have to try to get Tyler Kolek going, if he even plays. Kolek is a 6’3” guard and is second in scoring for the Golden Eagles with 15 points per game. He also leads the team in assists with 7.6 per game. On top of that, he was recently chosen for the AP All-American second team. Pretty good player, huh? Well, Kolek has missed the last six games for Marquette, including the Big East Tournament, with an oblique injury. However, Marquette head coach Shaka Smart says that Kolek is practicing full contact and should be ready to play by Friday. If Kolek is able to suit up and play, the task for the Golden Eagles is to make sure he can get going. There couldn’t be more of a difference between practice and the NCAA Tournament and with missing six games, Kolek could very well struggle once he makes his way back to the floor, perhaps for multiple games. If Marquette can help Kolek get to where he is once again comfortable out on the court, they will have a very good chance of winning. Clearly, Marquette’s best player at his best likely means Marquette wins in a walkover.
The Golden Eagles have to find a way to outrebound the Hilltoppers. Western Kentucky is currently 19th in the nation with 39.8 rebounds per game. On the other hand, Marquette is all the way down at 307th in the country out of 351 teams with just 32.8 rebounds per game. At this rate, the Golden Eagles will basically get one shot per possession. The thing about Western Kentucky is that not only do the big men rebound, but the guards do as well. Brandon Newman, a 6’5” guard, led the Hilltoppers in rebounding for the majority of the season. However, he has recently been passed up by 6’8” forward Babacar Faye. This shows the type of culture that Western Kentucky has, which is everybody rebounds. If Oso Ighodaro, Marquette’s leading rebounder, gets into foul trouble, nobody else really rebounds for the Golden Eagles and they could be in a lot of trouble if he has to leave the game. With this being said, every player for Marquette is going to have to make sure that they are boxing out and rebounding or else they could be leaving Indianapolis ahead of schedule.
Marquette needs to try to control the pace of this game. Western Kentucky is currently first in the country in adjusted tempo. The Hilltoppers love to run. Marquette can’t try to keep up with them or they will most likely get burned. We’ve seen teams have success when they try to slow down the pace against WKU. When the Hilltoppers aren’t able to get out in transition and force turnovers, they are much less successful. If Marquette is able to control the pace of this game and slow everything down, the Golden Eagles will have a great chance of winning this game and moving on to the second round.
Bonus Key from the Editor: Marquette needs to prevent WKU’s many weapons from absolutely going off.
WKU has had six different players score at least 20 points, and that has happened a total of 13 times this season. If you count 15+, the number skyrockets. There have been several more games of 18+ that could make the numbers prettier. Most players only have one game of 20+, and then Don McHenry has eight such games. The point here is if no one goes for 20 on WKU, it’s kind of hard to see WKU pulling it out. It doesn’t happen every game, but Western’s chances drastically increase if one single player is accounting for 25 percent of the team’s average points. That means the remaining eight or nine players only need to average six or seven instead of needing much more to pull off the upset. Someone has to go off and give WKU enough offense to overcome Marquette’s three headed monster (Kolek, Kam Jones, and Oso Ighodaro), which averages nearly 50 (45.8) points per game. Even David Joplin (10.9 ppg) provides another scorer, although he is more inconsistent than the other three. The elite scoring pretty much stops with those four, so if they are controlled, Marquette will struggle to find someone to pick up the slack.
WKU needs just a little more than the normal, and it’s almost law of averages against a really good team that two or three guys are going to struggle. I guess if WKU really has everyone do what they normally do, that’s good enough. But my guess is Dontaie Allen (8 ppg) may not even play (or play much), first of all. Second of all, I think guys that are a little small could struggle against Marquette’s guard length. They’re all 6’3” or more, and WKU’s small guards are a little shorter. Don McHenry is a shortish guard. He may struggle, and it may be someone’s else’s time to step up. Maybe it’s time for Brandon Newman or Tyrone Marshall or Teagan Moore to have themselves a game. Let’s see someone go for 20+, or if two someone’s could do it, or maybe a couple of guys combine for 40 total (say 23+17 for example), that might just get WKU over the hump.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
As was mentioned before, this is Western Kentucky’s first time back to The Big Dance in 11 years. For Marquette, this is their third year in a row in the tournament. With this being said, this is WKU’s head coach Steve Lutz’s third year in a row making it to the party. Nobody ever really knows what will happen when this time of the year rolls around and if you’re a Marquette fan, you have to like where your name is on the bracket. Frankly, if you’re Marquette, you’re probably extremely confident that you should make it to the Sweet 16 without much hubbub. However, I wouldn’t count out the Tops. Throughout conference play, Western Kentucky was in every single game. Their biggest margin of loss throughout conference play was just six points. They have had a chance to win every single game that they played and with some luck and some better focus could have gone undefeated in Conference USA play. Marquette is heavily favored, and for good reason, but this game could truly go either way. WKU is a 12 seed with a 15 seed’s resume.
For Western Kentucky vs Marquette in the first round of the 2024 NCAA tournament, I am going to go with 79-75 WKU. I know I know, call me a homer all you want, but I believe in Steve Lutz and this WKU team. I believe that this is the year that WKU will be back in the conversation as a household name when it comes to college basketball. I could very well be wrong, and there’s a 94% possibility that I am, but anything can happen in March, and I know how much this Hilltopper team wants to win. We also saw WKU’s potential in the CUSA Tournament. Would every top three or four seed in the bracket beat a motivated MTSU by 31? On top of that, Marquette seems to be a favorable matchup for Western Kentucky. I believe that Steve Lutz will know how to exploit the poor rebounding out of the Golden Eagles and will be able to take advantage of Kolek with this being his first game back since February. As I said before, anything can happen in March, and I can’t wait to watch it all unfold in Indianapolis!
Conclusion
I want to start off by saying thank you to everyone who reads these previews. I am a 21-year-old college student with a love for WKU Basketball and I had no idea how much joy something like this could bring me. Whether you’re a Tops fan or not, I appreciate everyone who takes the time out of their day to read these articles. When I went to Huntsville for the Conference USA Tournament, so many people stopped me and told me that they love my articles and that really just means the world to me. I had no idea how many people would end up enjoying my work and really just started doing this as a fun way to express my thoughts about Hilltopper Basketball. WKU has been in my DNA since I was born, and I have always, and will always support the Tops no matter where I am in life, and I can’t thank everyone who reads these enough. Anyways, back to the game!
Both of these teams will be fighting for their lives. This is it. Win or go home. For Western Kentucky, this isn’t their first time in this sort of situation this season. On the other hand, Marquette received an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament after losing to UCONN in the Big East finals. Either way, I can guarantee that neither team wants to go home in the first round. If anyone has had the chance to watch either of these teams this season, you should know that this will be exciting!
For anyone that is not able to make it to Indianapolis, the game will be on TBS at 1:00 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. RedOut will be tweeting some updates, as well and responding to the action. They are also our video content guys. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!