WKU Basketball: Grading the Tops’ 86-83 Loss at FIU

"Who can we blame this time?" -Rick Stansbury

Sweet baby lord in his gold fleeced PJ’s, Topper Twitter and Facebook is one fire. I had the impromptu pleasure of running Towel Rack’s tweets against FIU, and as I start typing up my thoughts at 9:30 at night, people are still blowing up the TTR timeline venting. The game has been over for over an hour and a half. I’ve seen more #FireStansbury than I have seen in all of the previous five seasons combined.

People are finally getting sick of the mediocrity, and WKU is now one game over .500 with two wins against DIII schools. And much, much worse is the fact WKU is 2-4 in Conference USA and has lost three in a row. All of WKU’s losses are by single digits, and WKU had a lead in all four losses. Even worse than just that pure fact from hell, WKU’s last three losses came against the defending champion (North Texas) who WKU supposedly was “seeking revenge against”, FIU, and FAU.

When was the last time WKU lost to both FAU and FIU in basketball? Actually Rick Stansbury accomplished that rare feat in 2020, as well.

But WKU also rebounded that year to only lose two more games in February and March. So just like that season, WKU loses to FAU and FIU in late January. The problem is that WKU was already well established in C-USA and had a 7-3 record after losing at the Florida schools.

WKU is 2-4 this season, and the overall record is virtually guaranteed to be worse than any Rick Stansbury season besides the 2018-19 (20-14) and 2016-17 (15-17). But WKU will have to be excellent the rest of the season to even do as well as 2018-19.

So for now, it’s full on panic mode time in Bowling Green. This is the worst start in conference play in WKU’s entire history in C-USA, dating back to the 2014-15 season. WKU’s quickest path to four losses under Rick Stansbury has been a 4-4 start, which has happened twice. So for WKU to just match the two other poor starts in WKU’s short tenure as a Conference USA member, WKU would need to beat conference favorite UAB inside Diddle Arena. They would then need to beat Middle at home next Saturday. Then they would need a win at Charlotte to tie the 2016-17 start at 5-4. Then WKU gets to travel to Old Dominion. That’s not an easy road back to contention. It could get worse, folks.

Dating back to the Sun Belt days, WKU’s last start as bad as this one got Ken McDonald fired midseason. WKU started 1-5 in the Sun Belt that season. They famously went on from there and pulled it together enough to win four games in four days and win a play-in game in the NCAA Tournament before falling to eventual national champion Kentucky.

So we’ve set the table to understand the gravity of this situation. Now let’s break it down. What the heck happened for WKU to turn around and lose to a team they just beat two weeks ago by 13?

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Grading the Keys to Victory

Be Ready for Their Best: F

Is there any way you could say FIU didn’t play out of its mind? WKU was down 18 at one point. FIU made shot after shot in the final minutes. WKU fought and fought and fought, swinging the margin between 2-9 points seemingly forever. Then FIU swung it back to 12 points. WKU came back and took the lead, and FIU made several incredible shots with hands in their faces on most late in the game. FIU shoots 42% from the field this season. They shot 48.4% against WKU. They shot 45.7% from three and made 16 of them. They shoot 69% from free throw and shot 77%. They get outrebounded on the season. They outrebounded WKU by 13. They truly played their best and needed 86 points to beat WKU by 3. But how many opportunities did WKU have to be better than they were at certain moments? WKU should’ve been more focused defensively. Your season is starting to feel like it’s on the line and you give up 86? You allow a pedestrian three point shooting team to look like world beaters? Sure, WKU scored 83, but in spurts. It was not consistent, while FIU was pretty steady, consistently being the better team for 80% of the game. For maybe 20%, WKU was clearly the better team. That’s a formula to lose. FIU was ready to go, and WKU just wasn’t.

Don’t Let Pinkney Get Out of Last Week’s Funk: B+

WKU obviously made sure this guy wasn’t a factor. He only played 17 minutes, scored two points, and had two turnovers. He did grab five rebounds, but if that’s all of the impact he had, that’s a good job against the big man.

Expect Tevin Brewer to Be Much Better: F

My goodness. That’s a big oof. Best player loses his mind? This is no way limiting his impact on the game. To go over his stat line, he had 23 points on 16 shots, also adding in eight assists and only had two turnovers. I’m not going to go back through the stat chart just to find out exactly how many points he accounted for, but eight assists and 23 means he accounted for at least 39 points by himself. I’m sure a few of those were threes, so he certainly accounted for about half of his team’s points. In addition to Brewer just going wild, Eric Lovett hit six threes and scored 20 total points. Then he randomly grabs eight rebounds when he barely averages three per game. Denver Jones also was well above his average. The sixth man off the bench only took eight shots to get to his 16 points, shooting 5-of-6 from the line. It’s one thing to let the leading scorer go off. That’s bad enough of a problem. But then you let two other guys go off and you’re really asking for huge trouble. You can’t allow a massive explosion from several guys and withstand it. WKU somehow allowed three players to have their best games and still had a chance.

Get Three of Josh, Jairus, Cam, and Luke Back on Track: D

Three of the four were average at best in this game. However, Josh Anderson had one of his best games ever, although for some reason, he had more points (23) than minutes (22). Jairus Hamilton, Cam Justice, and Luke Frampton were not awful, but you hope to get 35+ out of these guys. Their combined line was 24 points, 10 rebounds, 5 assists, 5 turnovers, 3 steals, and 1 block. That’s not a complete disaster, but for this team to have beaten FIU scoring 86, WKU’s top six needed to average over 13 per game. With Josh and Dayvion getting 42 themselves, the other four core players needed to score 40 or so. They nearly got there, but it still wasn’t enough. In contrast, FIU played eleven people at least seven minutes in the game. WKU played eight total players, two of which combined for 12 minutes played. It’s a lot of pressure that is put on WKU’s lineup for all of them to produce. FIU’s players only had to average seven or eight apiece. Any player on the court can score eight points any given night. Asking every player to score 11 or 12 or even 13 or 14? Sometimes that’s just not happening. WKU just cannot win if multiple starters are having below average games.

Dayvion McKnight Needs Four Turnovers or Less: B-

Dayvion was not the reason WKU lost this game, but he also could still improve his decision making. As great as he is one on one, when he is forced to make decisions, he’s either feast or famine right now. Hopefully by the end of the year, he will eliminate those awful games in the turnover department. So give him a passing grade, but he barely passed on this. Also he was slightly below his normal in the assists department, so I’m not inclined to give him an elite grade in this area of his play.

Player Grades

Dayvion McKnight: B+

I said this above, so I won’t spend a ton of time on McKnight, but he was absolutely not the reason WKU lost. 19-4-6 with only three turnovers is plenty. Dayvion continues to establish himself as the star of this team, and is likely a First Team point guard in C-USA if he continues.

Cam Justice: D+

Justice got a little hot late in the game, but at one point, he was having a really bad game. His numbers end up looking decent, but my main issue with Cam is it was inconsistent. Also, three turnovers is frustrating from a guard that isn’t always handling the ball. The main thing for these low grades is the inconsistency.

Luke Frampton: D+

Frampton is another example of a player that had a burst and then just disappeared for 90% of the game. Looking back, Luke made 80% of his positive plays in the first ten minutes of the game, had a few stray plays later in the first half, and his second half was almost invisible. Imagine if Luke was impactful in the second half at all.

Jairus Hamilton: D

Jairus continues to struggle. The man is a volume shooter, and he’s not getting up enough shots. He also has not been involved on the glass, only grabbing two this game. He did have two assists and no turnovers. But to play 33 minutes and have very little impact on the game is a failure for your second leading scorer. A decent Jairus Hamilton helps win this game against FIU.

Jamarion Sharp: A-

It was nice to see the big fella be impactful in this game. Even though he was only credited with one block, he was a presence, he helped rebound, and he hustled and generated his own offense. And give him credit that his man didn’t go crazy like he did last time, and FIU only had 24 paint points with plenty of short shots missed. I wonder why? Jamarion.

Josh Anderson: A+

The only question is why Josh Anderson only played 22 minutes. What am I missing here? Even if he’s coming off of the bench, the man is your best player on the night and also, frankly, if he was given the chance, he’s your best player, period. He’s got five years of college ball in his legs. I can’t fathom why he wouldn’t have played nearly 30 minutes. So he didn’t sub in until five minutes had passed. Fine. Why did he need 13 more minutes of rest with a final line of 23 points on 11 shots, shooting 12 free throws, and grabbing four steals? If Josh doesn’t have some kind of undisclosed health issue that keeps him from being able to play more minutes, this is absolutely inexcusable. The man gets the least minutes of anyone in the top six in the rotation, shoots 44.4% from three, 83% from the charity stripe, scores the fourth most on the team, has the least amount of turnovers of anyone on the team, and steals the ball nearly 2.5 times per game. What am I missing here?

Jaylen Butz: B+

For only getting eight minutes, six points, drawing fouls, multiple rebounds, and no turnovers again makes me wonder why Jaylen Butz isn’t earning more playing time. With Jairus Hamilton struggling, what damage does it do to give Jairus a few minutes off and see if you can get some efficiency from someone else?

Sherman Brashear: N/A

He played four minutes and took one shot. Nothing happened besides taking one shot. Not enough data to grade him. Why play him for four minutes? What was the purpose in that?

Team Grades

Team Defense: F

Giving up 86 is atrocious. Also, FIU shot 48% and 46% from three. They shoot 42% and 35% on average. WKU had obvious lapses in covering the three, and FIU made them pay for it. WKU had moments of incredible explosion on both ends, and then 80% of the time, FIU was clearly better.

Team Offense: C+

WKU obviously scored 83, as well, but again, what would it have looked like without a 20-4 run, for example? Or a 13-0 run down 12? WKU lost by three to a 1-4 C-USA team and needed to look like a national champion for two spurts to even come close to victory.

Team Effort: C+

Again, WKU was outplayed most of the game. WKU had some moments where they were playing insanely hard and FIU looked like it was going to get swept away. And then Western would come back to Earth and FIU would take control again. With a short bench, how can WKU sustain a 40 minute effort? It would take elite fitness to do that and not get tired at the end. Are they capable of sustaining effort with this short of a rotation? I’m not sure, but there were clearly lapses where FIU was just playing harder. Perhaps the biggest stat of all is offensive rebounds. This team consistently gets slaughtered on the offensive boards. It’s because they don’t take boxing out seriously on every possession.

Coaching: F

You’re on a two game losing streak and you allow FIU to outcoach you once again? How many things can we point to that are possible issues with Rick Stansbury in this game? I’ve already pointed out a ton. There are more. Rick’s rotation makes no sense. There is now absolutely no hope of anything but winning in March. That means each regular season game means so much more less. It’s ok to throw away a game in order to ready your team for March. Will Rick lay down his pride and get this team healthy and get the young guys some experience? Will he show an ability to help his team after his plan goes awry?

Coaching Game Plan: D

Whatever defensive game plan was developed was not effective at all. WKU used the 2-3 zone, which allowed FIU to shoot tons of threes. They tried this matchup zone some, which I haven’t been a huge fan of. They played some man. They didn’t press until panic time, and lo and behold, the press worked once again. Why is this so difficult? Press more. Create chaos. Play a few more players if it wears out your team. You have athletic big men and guards who turn it over anyway. Let them run and gun and let’s see what happens.

Coaching Adjustments: F

Josh Anderson goes wild, and Rick Stansbury plays him 22 minutes. Against FAU, Cam Justice is shooting 70% and plays 17 minutes. Jaylen Butz played eight minutes and produced six points and a couple of rebounds and drew a couple of fouls. Sherman Brashear comes in for four minutes and your response is to not play him again the whole game? What exactly did he do wrong, coach?

Also, once again, FIU found a way to stay away from Sharp, and they basically did the same thing they did last game. The difference was this game, your offense didn’t keep up with them and they were a little more efficient and made their shots. And still, your players don’t hustle out to the three point shooters and even worse, they stare at a three point shooter while another offensive player swoops in from the weak side and steals a rebound or nearly causes a turnover. More than once, FIU got long rebounds on their threes, or WKU allowed FIU to get a rebound it shouldn’t have. Every team will get offensive rebounds, but come on. You can’t consistently lose the offensive rebound battle and not question effort or technique somewhere. And perhaps you would ever get a rebound on a free throw if you ever put guys down there offensively.

Coaching Awareness: F

Again, the rotations are mind-blowing. I’ve covered them enough. But how are you not aware you’re screwing your team simply by not feeding the hot hand or minimizing the minutes of the player that just doesn’t have it that night? Also, Josh Anderson is the best on ball defender in Conference USA. He is perhaps the most elite athlete, as well. Why in the name of Pete would you not use that wonderful weapon at the point of your press several times a game, and not when it’s panic time? Also, how are you either not getting Jairus Hamilton more shots or posting up Luke Frampton, who has pretty good size for his position, or straight up posting up Dayvion McKnight? Why not try it? The lack of awareness is astounding. And WKU had three chances to take the lead late. And guess what? Foolishness kept them from scoring the first two times. Then the Tops get lucky as Jairus Hamilton nails a three pointer.

Coaching Emotion: F

So you have lost two games in a row and you’re talking about how motivated you are to turn it around. And you come out and give up 86? You play straight into their hands and play their style? You lose both games to teams that you should definitely beat? You still continue to have lapses in effort? You still don’t box and guard the three? Come on, dude. Rick is too much of a robot. It’s all about statistics and percentages and not about the ebb and flow of the game. It’s about making decisions that you think give you the best percentage chance instead of using your feel of your players and the moment to take a different path and put your team in the best position. This didn’t feel like a team that was determined to turn it around. This felt like a team that still needed a bigger wake up call. Maybe they’ve had it now. We can all hope so.

Overall: F

There’s no way you can finish off a three game losing streak and lose in a way that suggests anything but you getting beaten in a slog where you couldn’t make any shots and not get an absolute failing grade.

I don’t care that WKU lost. FIU is good enough to beat anyone in the conference. They may be 2-4, but they played a lot of good teams already in six games. They’ll probably finish at .500 or better.

But what I care about is WKU giving up 86 points. There’s no way a team focused on fundamentals and defense gives up 86 against almost anyone. I could understand if this was a low scoring game and both teams shot under 40%. That’s different. That’s you giving yourself a chance despite not having a good shooting night. That’s effort. This was a game in which FIU had way more flow and easy opportunities to convert. WKU needed two massive runs to even give themselves a chance to win, only taking the lead in the last couple of minutes.

The odds evened out, and FIU, the team that absolutely deserved to win, made some incredible shots down the stretch to win the game.

That’s karma, if you will. There’s no question FIU was the better team Saturday night. They deserved to win.

Going forward, WKU better get it together. Imagine losing two more to teams your fans have beef with past and present. WKU does get UAB And Middle at home, a place they’re 9-2 on the year. But WKU could easily lose these next two and be at 2-6 in C-USA for the first time ever.

Western better get it together, or Rick Stansbury could be run out of town. I saw no scenarios where Rick would actually leave, but the fan base is quickly jumping ship. With all of the Stansbury love, it’s shocking to see such a quick 180.

But WKU fans know what they’re looking at. Western fans know the man has had nearly six years to work some magic. Instead of magic, WKU has gotten to the brink and choked multiple times.

It’s now time to put up or shut up, for real. I thought that moment was two years ago, but COVID canceled the conference tournament. Then the choke job happened again last year, and I believe that ignited the fire to what we’re seeing now.

WKU does not have a sure-fire draft pick center this season. However, WKU does have talent, and it’s extremely frustrating to have six guys on the court that can go for 20 at any moment and you can’t cobble together a lineup that can sustain itself the whole season.

Here’s to turning this ship around, Tops.