WKU Basketball: Grading the Tops vs. La Tech

How did WKU grade out against La Tech in what is surely the final game of 2021-22?

Well, we owe everyone one last Game Grades. Let’s just keep it simple. It’s obvious no one is going to grade out well because of the shooting. It was atrocious.

WKU couldn’t buy a basket. It was like Western had Bitcoin for buckets and everyone suddenly realized Bitcoin was based on absolute diddly squat. As a life, health, and retirement benefit specialist, I caution you on Bitcoin!

So let’s focus on what WKU could control: Effort, coaching, and awareness.

Let’s start with the Keys to Victory, which I actually wrote with the entire tournament in mind. Unfortunately, the Tops bowed out to a team that is worthy of a championship.

Grading the Keys to Victory

Play Well: D

Other than turnovers, Western was awful. They couldn’t hit the ocean rolling the ball down a boat ramp straight into the sea. Also, Kenneth Lofton, Jr., was incredible, recording yet another double double, but also recording five of his team’s nine assists. The impact that man had…it’s immeasurable. He kept Jamarion Sharp from doing anything but drawing a few fouls and gobbling up a bunch of rebounds and swatting several La Tech shot attempts. But he also erased nine WKU possessions with his rebounding. With his five assists and 16 points, he singlehandedly accounted for over half of his team’s points. So how does WKU feel accomplished when the number one priority defensively goes ballistic? Also, the most unfathomable stat of the night? Two assists. TWO!!! Unbelievable.

Understand Where Your Opponent is Coming From: D-

La Tech was already into their tournament, and they were feeling the flow from the beginning. Without question, the 14 point deficit cost WKU. Whose fault was it? I don’t know, but Western didn’t seem to really lock in defensively until perhaps ten minutes into the first half. How many times has WKU come out ice cold in the C-USA Tournament in recent memory? A ton. Also, Kenneth Lofton was hobbled. Why not double him more? He was distributing like crazy anyway. Also, he’s limping between possessions. How about a press? Force him to run the floor. Also, perhaps Sharp gets loose and gets involved offensively. Where is your opponent coming from? Below Jamarion Sharp’s shoulders. It’s clear and obvious how dynamic WKU’s offense is with him scoring. Why not specifically try to get him the ball on the lob?

Load Management: F

Dead horse, but there’s no way even in this one game that the Tops felt that fresh at the end. Inexplicably, a “fresh” Jairus Hamilton, the team’s leading scorer for half the season, played 15 minutes. Isaiah Cozart played four. WKU’s bench generally does something like 30-40 bench minutes. No one else played a minute besides the starters. This was LESS than the normal 25 by one of the six and the starters playing 30+. Only one starter played less than 36 minutes! Luke Frampton was 0-5 on the night with one rebound and an assist and played 37 minutes. Why? And IF WKU won, what would they have had in the tank for North Texas? It’s something we’ve covered 1,000 times, but after coming back from a huge deficit once again to take a lead, WKU could not finish the game. Methinks they may have been tired. La Tech played nine guys and finished the game with a strong push.

Don’t Mess Around: D-

Am I saying the Tops just didn’t show up? No. Am I saying they didn’t care? No, to be absolutely clear. I thought they played with great effort and intensity. But once again, a crucial moment in history starts out with a huge opponent lead. Why is that? I specifically put this point in here, because for some reason, with Rick Stansbury, it is statistically likely to happen once every three games. The Tops will start with some ungodly deficit, fight their way all the way back, and then either run out of gas or finish the team off by outscoring them by 35 from the swinging point. But it takes a massive amount of effort to battle like that. And that is exactly what happened in this game. Not only did it happen as a run to start (15-4), it was a 14 point lead (28-14) with 8:47 left in the first half. Meaning in order to win, WKU was going to have to end up 15 points better than La Tech in 28:47 of game time, an almost impossible feat.

It turns out Western was “only” 12 points better. What is the explanation for coming out that flat? For the first half of the first half, Western wasn’t getting up on shooters, wasn’t playing competitive defense, and wasn’t championship level engaged. Then all of a sudden, they get there and play that way the rest of the game, except when they ran out of gas after a superhuman effort for about 24 minutes of game time. Strange fact: In all of Rick Stansbury’s losses in the C-USA Tournament, Western was down in the first half by the margin they eventually lost the game by or more with one exception. That was the 2018-19 loss in the finals to Old Dominion, who only had a five point lead at 8-3 (and other spots), eventually winning by six points. Essentially, Western digs itself a hole that is really difficult to come out of in tournament play once a year.

Understand Who You Are: C

Most of this thought was playing like you’re the better team and the better program. Frankly, I think WKU did everything it could besides just making some baskets. Sometimes, you’re just snakebitten. I don’t think WKU lost its identity, shot too many threes, etc. I just think WKU couldn’t buy a shot. But the most important parts of the game to establish who is better is at the beginning and at the end. Western was incredible from 8:30 left in the first half to about 3:47 left in the game. Unfortunately, the game was decided in those 16 minutes and not the ones in the middle. So let’s not give WKU a complete failing grade. I think much of the mental side of this game was just circumstance. But an elite program mentality approach on average doesn’t start out down double digits. An elite program doesn’t go silent in the final three minutes. An elite program shares the ball.

Conclusion

I’m not going to break down each player individually, and I’m not going to break down Rick Stansbury in this game. I think we can all nitpick. The blaring stats that probably lost the game were free throws (12-19), three pointers (3-21), and assists (2). Western sure picked an awful time to shoot the very worst shooting percentage all season (14.3%). The free throws were the sixth worst all season. The assists? WKU only had seven games in single digit assists, and the previous low was five against Kentucky. To make it worse, none of WKU’s opponents recorded less than six assists all season against WKU. So two assists is mind-boggling.

This is not a shot at anybody and there’s no axe to grind, but it is absolutely fascinating: The two assists against La Tech were the lowest by two assists in the last ten years of team stats.

Without digging further back, this was the most statistically stagnant game of Western Basketball in ten full seasons.

The last game that even came close was on March 1, 2018 at MTSU (4). There were four games with four or five assists in the 2012-13 season, but again, none lower than four team assists.

Is it just coincidence? Obviously, stats like assists are really up to a scorekeeper and judgment somewhat. It also requires made baskets. But still, this was such an outlier that it kind of makes me want to go back and figure out what really happened. I do remember a couple of times where WKU had a wide open teammate. But was it really that selfish of a basketball game? I can’t say that it felt that way at all to me. There were moments, like a moment when Dayvion McKnight was driving to the middle of the paint and Cam Justice is jumping up and down in the corner wide open for a three and Dayvion didn’t decide to pass it. I think a huge portion of the lost assists were from missing threes. There were definitely only a handful of threes in this game that felt like they were poor decisions.

When you shoot as bad as the Tops did, it’s not just bad luck. Some of it was shot selection. But the largest quotient of the problem was just not being able to put it in the bucket, for whatever reason.

It’s frustrating to see the season end like that. Then you see La Tech win against UNT with 42 points. Seriously? Why couldn’t they have shot like that against Western?

And it just makes you sick for these guys. They fought their guts out. They played really good, championship level basketball with tangible effort for a month and a half in a row. I believe starting with the UAB game, WKU was a different team. I think the two MTSU games were complete anomalies for different reasons, and the Tops were locked in the whole rest of the season.

I think we all hope the Tops decide to stick together, because there is a really good core that could come back. Josh Anderson and Cam Justice are the only ones required to leave due to exhausted eligibility.

And how about those two guys? Cam Justice, first of all, was not even really supposed to be a part of this team. Apparently the team knew he was very possibly going to get to play, but even Rick said in his post-La Tech press conference that they were hoping for 15 minutes a game from Justice. He ends up the second leading scorer!

And Josh Anderson. OHH! The memories from that man…

I remember when he announced to the entire WORLD that he was a tornado of a freshman with a whirlwind of potential when he dunked at Marshall in his first game. And here’s the thing: Josh Anderson doesn’t leave his time at WKU with a reputation as a dunker. Sure, that’s what he’s most known for, but Conference USA will remember him as a really good player that probably wasn’t used to his full potential.

He still leaves The Hill playing the most games ever, with well over 1,000 points, and top 25-50 in a lot of categories. But the work that he put in, and the defense that he played with should be remembered more than his dunking. He was an absolute gem of a solid player. That man transformed himself from the kid who could dunk to “that really good Western player that’s been around forever”. “You know, that guy who’s had all those dunks on Sportscenter? Yeah him. Man he’s a really good player.” Good for him for changing the narrative about himself to just being a great player.

To end this season’s analysis, let’s talk about where the program is now. We would be remiss not to acknowledge the biggest conversation piece about this program.

And for those that may be confused how a team that’s been in the championship three of the past five years and a top four seed in every tournament since 2018 could have turmoil, these extra details are for you.

Well, with Rick Stansbury comes certain unique characteristics of a program. You’re going to have great players say they’ll play for the Tops, you’re going to have a portion that never show up, and you’re going to have an even smaller portion actually come and do anything. But also, Rick’s teams are usually really good and fundamentally sound. On top of that, despite the incredible recruiting, they end up with extremely shallow depth, and there is a lot of uncertainty every single year about who is going to be eligible and who is going to have to sit.

In addition, the Tops made it to the championship three times in a row (with a COVID cancellation in the middle), and each time, WKU had something tangibly strange about the game, whether it was completely forgetting their identity (2018), not playing the bench at all despite in-game production (2019), or digging a massive hole and getting outcoached in the final minutes of the game (2021).

Mounting frustration builds, because WKU is in its longest drought without an appearance in the NCAA Tournament in its history. And Rick Stansbury is now guaranteed a seventh year while WKU sits wondering if the drought will end at a decade.

And no offense to the current roster, but this roster was the most questionable of any that Rick Stansbury has ever assembled. Rick only played six players in conference play, but there was no obvious seventh man available. Perhaps Sherman Brashear should have been the obvious choice, a smaller guard with length who could shoot, something the Tops didn’t have much depth in. However, he was also a defensive liability.

Jaylen Butz was a bust in terms of getting him to produce anything like he did at DePaul. He barely played to end the season. Isaiah Cozart is an interesting player, but he also has times he gets smoked while still being undersized and seemingly awkward. But he did produce when he was in the game.

So those three guys were possible rotation players, but all had some flaws. And then (as far as we know) there was a huge drop-off to the rest of the roster. They’re either walk-ons, redshirts (Darrius Miles and Elijah Hughey), young scholarships players, or someone who still just needs a little more time to develop.

In addition, Keith Williams was advertised as a foregone conclusion that he would be approved eligible, and when he was approved, he would be the best player on the team. Also Zion Harmon was the reigning Mr. Basketball. Neither of those guys played a second for the Tops. Awful luck. Then again, this is year six, not year one or two.

All of that explanation to say this: The fans are divided. Whether it’s an impromptu poll by a fan on Facebook, or it’s a Towel Rack survey, fans aren’t sure what to think. Currently it seems like 1/3 want Rick Stansbury fired right now, 1/3 are giving him one more year, and then there’s another 1/3 that are just completely ok with everything and have no problem. There’s a strange lack of a middle ground on the positive side where people are not cautiously optimistic that Rick can get it done “at some point”. It’s either fire and brimstone, “this is getting old”, or “everything is completely fine”.

But when WKU was on a five game losing streak, a poll was ran and over 60 percent were ready to cut Rick Stansbury loose.

Regardless, it needs to be mentioned as we head into the offseason: It’s an incredibly pivotal time in the history of WKU Basketball. We are heading into a transition period where teams are coming and going from C-USA. The conference should absolutely be weaker next year, but it remains to be seen what it’s really going to look like.

WKU will probably be one of the few favorites once again against a weaker field. And it will be on Rick Stansbury to get it done next year. Athletic Director Todd Stewart has already announced that he will definitely be back. So we ride on with Rick Stansbury to the trepidation of a small majority of the fan base.

Keep an eye on Towel Rack in the offseason. I will absolutely be breaking down both football and basketball as we try to evaluate what next year may look like. We’ll have some baseball and softball information, as well.

Remember this team however you want, but let’s appreciate the players for all they accomplished. It looked like a disaster at the end of January, but the Tops pulled together truly against all odds and made a run at a championship once again.

Until next time, GO TOPS!