WKU Basketball: Grading WKU's 65-60 Home Loss Against UNT

WKU tied a season low 60 points Saturday. Why? Also, check out the end if you want to know where I stand on where this is going.

Western Kentucky struggled Saturday. Thanks for reading this article. We’ll keep you posted on any other deep analysis that may come forward. Have a good weekend and stay safe out there in the slush.

In all seriousness, in some ways, what more is there to say? North Texas pretty well controlled WKU from tip to buzzer, with several ties and lead changes in the first 14 minutes. After that, the obvious fact proved true by halftime: North Texas was more united, more engaged, and seemed to have more in the tank than WKU.

Let’s keep perspective on this loss, though.

This was not some crappy team that came in to Diddle Arena and dominated the Tops defensively. This is a top 60 or so team that is a defending champion that is possibly coached by in my opinion the best current coach in the conference, Grant McCasland. Other teams may have more size and talent, but there’s no question he gets everything he can out of his players and his system.

North Texas stifled the Tops, just like they have done all season. UNT generally holds opponents under 60, and a WKU team previously averaging nearly 80 needed 15 points in the final three minutes to score 60.

Ultimately, WKU fell 65-60, but the score was not that close. WKU was down as many as 14 (with 3:42 remaining) and with :46 on the clock, WKU was down ten. Western finally hit some threes in garbage time, or the streak of 1,086 would have been snapped. This was the closest call to “the streak” since WKU went 1-for-11 against ULM in Monroe in the Sun Belt days.

That was the kind of offensive night it was for WKU. But give North Texas credit. That was incredible defense and any team that holds this WKU team in the 60s should hang their hat on it.

With all of that being said, let’s grade out the Tops and find out what the heck happened.

Grading the Keys to Victory

Be Efficient: F

In no way was WKU efficient on either side of possession. Defensively, WKU committed an equal number of fouls, something Rick Stansbury’s teams rarely do. The Tops also allowed ten threes on the night, seven of which happened in the first half. Western also lost the turnover battle, and also allowed 16 assists on North Texas’ 23 made shots. Basically North Texas was in their flow and WKU was not.

Offensively, good lord. What a nightmare. There were more references to vomit on the WKU message boards than the Cincinnati Bengals fans celebrating their first win in the playoffs since George Bush (Senior) was in office (shoutout to our own Sam Gormley, a huge Bengals fan). Also shoutout to George Bush for somehow getting mentioned in a WKU Basketball article, I guess.

I somehow got sidetracked, probably because talking about it makes me want to vomit. I mean, you talk about being snake bitten. WKU almost snapped its streak of threes that dates back to the 1980s. (For those curious, March 15, 1987, against Syracuse was the last time WKU did not make a three in a game. Ronald Reagan was president to finish off this bizarre mention of old presidents.) WKU had 15 turnovers, Josh Anderson and Jairus Hamilton combined for seven points, eight rebounds, one assist, and five turnovers. Western only had nine assists. Western shot less than 40% in the second half. The Tops weren’t particularly good from the free throw line, going 12-of-18. Western went a stretch of seven minutes where they only scored three points from the 10 to 3 minute mark in the second half, certainly the most crucial point of the game in this one. I could keep going, but nothing about what WKU did was efficient.

Play Your Style of Basketball: D

Without question, UNT got what it wanted in this game. WKU took only 49 shots, and that was only because they had an actually good amount of offensive rebounds. That is not WKU Basketball. Now, granted, if WKU had made a few more shots, we might have sang a different tune. There were certainly ten or so points out there in luck against the Tops in this one. And also, the first half scoring pace was much to WKU’s liking until UNT took control to go up 37-30 at halftime. So this isn’t a complete F, but it certainly wasn’t much of a passing grade in any way. UNT got what it wanted and benefitted from slowing the game down and strangled WKU to death.

I said if the game was under 65, WKU would lose. I said if WKU got 65-70, it would be a toss-up. And if the game was played in the 70s, WKU would win. I also made a joke that WKU wouldn’t all of a sudden score 48. Well, god forbid if they didn’t have 45 points with three minutes remaining. Without some serious luck to score 15 in three minutes, I would’ve looked like an absolute idiot on that one. Thanks, Tops for saving me. Instead, I was exactly right, thank you very much. Again, statistics aren’t everything, but certain teams almost always win in certain environments. UNT did what it had to and WKU shot 47% and easily lost. UNT shot 43% and won... Because of the style of basketball.

HALLELUJER: D+

Tylor Perry is the main offensive engine for UNT. He actually only shot 2-of-10 from the floor, but he still scored 13 because of free throws, all of which came in the second half. He also had seven assists and three steals. So although WKU clearly focused on making his life difficult, he still produced and took care of his team. And in this case, it was more the timing of his scoring and production. All of his rebounds and steals came in the second half. As mentioned above, his eleven free throws attempts all came in the second frame. So at the end of the day, the man with the name extremely close to Madea’s real name left Diddle saying, “Praise da Lort! Hallelujer!”

Get Something From the Bench: F

Here’s the problem with only playing seven players: What if half of them suck it up that game? That leaves you trying to win with three or four players actually doing something to help the team. Now that’s not a shot at the guys on the court. They were trying. Sometimes you just channel your inner brick layer, can’t hit the broad side of a barn, can’t throw it in the ocean, or whatever other common phrase for not being able to put the ball in the hole. But Jaylen Butz first of all only played five minutes. And when he was in there, there was one exact moment where he prevented a dunk. Other than that moment in time, everything So WKU basically only played six players. Good luck with that going forward, dude. It’s so much pressure on the players the do play. They must be their best for WKU to win. Playing other guys gives them a chance to possibly shine on occasion. They can’t score if they don’t play.

Every Topper fear came true: What if Josh Anderson has a terrible game one night? What if Justice joins him in missing a bunch of shots? What if Jairus can’t get inside? What if Frampton gets shut down? All of these things happened and WKU lost. Sometimes you just don’t have it, and the other team is just better that night.

Throw it Up to Sharp: C+

Sharp has become one of the few WKU players guaranteed to contribute something every night. Go figure after he somehow didn’t start for four games that he would be WKU’s most impactful player. In this case, Sharp was perfect from the field, going 4-for-4 and making 5-of-6 from the line. With Sharp clicking from the line and him having a pretty good game, you wish WKU would have gone to him some and see if he could tear apart the UNT defense. Obviously UNT played a part here, but Hamilton was off. Either make a concerted effort to get it in to him with multiple bigs in foul trouble, or go to Sharp and see what he could do.

Player Grades

Dayvion McKnight: A+

The former Kentucky Mr. Basketball has been one of the few players pretty much guaranteed to play fairly well for the Tops. He may have had a few games where he didn’t score double digits, but in those games, he had at least seven rebounds. Against Rhodes, for example, he still had ten assists with his season low two points. McKnight has also really cut down on his turnovers of late, not turning the ball over more than five times since the end of November. In his first six games, he turned the ball over at least six times in four of six games. So he’s cleaned up his turnovers and really has become more consistent. In this game, he had a 23-5-5 line with only two turnovers. Dayvion is doing it all, averaging 14.4 ppg and over six rebounds and six assists per game.

Camron Justice: D-

If it wasn’t for scoring some points (9), this was a really bad performance from him. Most turnovers on the team, only one assist, only two rebounds, and shooting less than 30%. He was wheeling and dealing Thursday. He was lost against the really long, stingy, and more athletic North Texas defenders.

Luke Frampton: C

Poor Luke was a focus of the Mean Green without question. He only got off three shots all game despite playing 29 minutes. Luke was targeted defensively, running the pick-and-roll on him all game. So he was being worn out on the defensive end on top of being hounded offensively. And speculation here, but I thought Luke looked absolutely exhausted late in the game. Perhaps the combination of being one of the UNT focuses on both ends and playing a ton of minutes the past two games was finally getting to him. With that being said, he was not a liability offensively, making 2-of-3 shots that he was allowed to make while also making 3-of-4 free throws. He also added seven rebounds, as well. One thing Luke has not done of late that has been part of his calling card in his career at WKU is drawing charges. He has not had many of those in the last month or two. The issues he had were really a scheme thing. The coaching staff should have found better ways to either get Frampton some rest or get him open at all.

Jairus Hamilton: F

I hate to give a player a flat F grade, but this was arguably Jairus’ worst game as a Hilltopper. Jairus scored double digits every single game until the Kentucky game right before Christmas. Ever since, he has only had one game (Rice) where he scored double digits. Jairus has gone from the best player on the team statistically to now perhaps being a borderline role player. Western really, really needs this guy to be a great player. Everything has dried up. He made at least one three in every game but one until the Kentucky game. Once again, whatever happened to him in the UK game has either gotten him in a funk, maybe he’s got some nagging issue, or maybe he’s just found a horribly timed midseason slump. And on top of the rest of the game on the court, after a made basket, Jairus also got a technical foul that quelled a huge swing of momentum and gave UNT two free throws. Regardless, everyone but him has been playing pretty well of late, this game not withstanding.

Jamarion Sharp: A-

I already covered his offense, so give him some credit for being the second best offense for WKU. He also had five blocks. It was nice to see him be a real presence in the middle the past couple of games. He had been a little less productive in the blocks department of late. But my main issues with Sharp are twofold. Issue one is he is getting off of his feet trying to block every shot while giving up defensive position. Opponents are figuring out he’ll jump on a ball fake and they are getting him off his feet and then driving the ball for an easy layup. Second, he is not boxing out his guys and they are hustling around him to get some rebounds. This is an issue team-wide. Grumblings are becoming more and more common about Rick Stansbury’s teams not playing fundamental defense. Well, if Jamarion Sharp would box his man out ever, how many more rebounds would he have? Overall, he was still clearly the second best player on the court for WKU. But he does still have room for improvement.

Josh Anderson: F

Poor Josh just couldn’t do anything this game. He had one dunk, missed some layups, only had four rebounds, nearly fouled out, and turned it over three times without an assist. It’s unfortunate, but Josh was due to have an awful game. He had been on such a roll since coming back from COVID. It’s a shame to see him have a bad game after being so great all season for the Tops. Hopefully he’ll bounce back going forward.

Jaylen Butz: Not enough data

Just kidding. He was terrible for the five minutes he got to play. If I was grading him, I’d give him a D at best. I think it would be pretty cruel to go full “F” when he tangibly prevented Thomas Bell from scoring on a dunk. Then again, other than that one moment, he was not a positive for WKU in terms of individual play. Here’s the interesting thing, though: He had a positive +/-. WKU was ultimately decent with him on the floor. Strange.

Team Grades

Hustle: C

WKU was not necessarily lazy, but there were times North Texas just wanted it more. Commentators on both Stadium and CBS Sports have talked about WKU players not boxing out and watching players shoot the three. It’s a fair statement to say that WKU takes some plays off and makes inexplicably passive mistakes that don’t happen if they were playing hard.

Body Language: F

Western definitely had a right to be frustrated. Calls didn’t go their way, they couldn’t hit very normal, quality shots at times, especially in the second half. Dayvion McKnight gets plowed from behind and landed on in front of the referee to no call at all. But first of all, you can’t let the opponent see you frustrated or down. Second, you can’t let situations affect the effort or the outlook. No matter the score, especially if you’re down, possessions feeling bad for yourself or feeling like you’re screwed or whatever. Get to work. It was really frustrating seeing WKU take a few possessions off in desperation time. Those few possessions cost the Tops really having a chance to get back in it. And heck, they were still back in it with a minute or so to play.

Decision Making: D

Western committed 15 turnovers in a really slow-paced game. That is not winning basketball. North Texas should get credit, but WKU just made some strange decisions at times, sometimes dribbling into traffic, sometimes putting themselves in compromised areas of the court.

Coaching

In-Game Strategy: C-

This was one of those games that plenty of people were questioning what Rick Stansbury was doing. Frankly, I don’t think his game plan was that bad. He played a matchup zone a lot, basically switching up whether the Tops actually switched or not at certain times. He also went pure man-to-man some. I don’t remember seeing 2-3 very much, and I guess I understand that given that the 2-3 slows a team down and UNT loves to slow it down, maybe the 2-3 wasn’t the best choice. However, it’s your best defense. Then when WKU got down double digits, Rick called for the pressure. Here’s my question: Why is pressure not the game plan from the beginning against a team that likes to slow it down? They don’t have a particularly incredible point guard that immediately negates pressure. Why would you not experiment with it to see if it works in the first half before you need it in desperation time?

I also question how Jairus Hamilton only got seven shots. And Frampton only took three shots? Heck, Josh Anderson didn’t have very many plays ran for him, either. Any of those three guys could have been emphasized a little more on some type of iso, run screens for Frampton, post either of the bigger guys up, or some other creative idea. The main thing about Rick Stansbury is the creativity factor. How do you adjust your pieces in-game? The pregame strategy usually makes sense, and I think it did this game except I would have called a press in the first half and played at least one more player off of the bench, but this is where he gets questioned the most.

Situational Awareness: D

Again, this was covered a little bit above, but one thing that stood out to me at the end of the game is not fouling immediately up seven with 45 seconds left. It actually worked out for WKU, because they forced a turnover. However, they burned 12 or 13 seconds off of the clock before even getting the ball. At that point, it’s game over. How about several bigs in foul trouble. If I’m the coach, I’m immediately posting one of my big men up and telling him to make his best move and be aggressive. Both of their power forwards had at least three fouls late in the game. Pass it in to the post, and if you don’t like it, pop it back out and you might get a wide open three after the defense collapses.

Leadership: D

Listening to the postgame, Rick said something about the game being “over” with a few minutes to go. I understand he didn’t really think the game was over, but it’s alarming that a coach on the sidelines to the single greatest comeback in the history of college basketball while at Texas A&M (down 12 with 45 seconds left) thinks any game is over. I hope that doesn’t project over to the team, but honestly with the way the team acted dejected and frustrated, it made me wonder what he was doing to combat that. Part of leadership is projecting confidence and inspiring players to play out of their minds intense. UNT was like a band of wild animals all game. WKU was clearly the less aggressive team. That happens sometimes. But it’s a concern moving forward. Hopefully, Rick Stansbury can inspire the Tops to get to their full potential.

Officiating: F

I just have to comment on the officiating. My god almighty. I’m not going to argue that officiating cost WKU the game, although many would say that. I believe WKU lost because North Texas played some great defense and basically everything that could have gone wrong for WKU did. But it really makes it difficult for either team to get a feel for how to function within the parameters when officials hardly call fouls and then randomly call five ticky tack fouls in a row. There were plenty of calls that both coaches were upset about, but there were definitely some crucial calls that just didn’t go Western’s way. Conference USA should be ashamed of both crews they put out there this week.

Overall: D

This was a poor performance, and we can point to myriad things that went wrong. Then again, exactly. This is one of the better teams in C-USA and WKU lost by five despite absolutely peeing down its leg. First of all, North Texas made WKU do what it did. North Texas is really and did exactly what it wanted and executed its game plan.

But I can’t give WKU a good grade simply because of bad luck. There were plenty of decisions, and plus, a huge part of the grade is execution. WKU cannot play like this and beat a good team. Western must be better against any of the top half of Conference USA. This might work against a USM or FAU, but it won’t work most of the time against a UAB, Middle, La Tech, Rice, or North Texas or someone else who plays decent basketball.

Why It’s Not Time to Panic

There’s no question UNT controlled the game. However, look at all of the things WKU did that were completely out of the normal for this particular team:

1. WKU shot its second lowest three point percentage of the season. WKU has only had three games under 20%. WKU shot 16.7%.

2. Western scored its lowest point total of the season.

3. The Tops tied their second worst assist total of the season.

4. WKU was called for the third most fouls all season.

5. North Texas shot the second best 3-point percentage against WKU’s defense all year.

6. WKU gave up the fourth most steals all season.

7. Camron Justice, Luke Frampton, Jairus Hamilton, and Josh Anderson all had some of their worst performances of the year in multiple ways.

This may look like a list of excuses for why WKU lost, but think about it. WKU played probably the third best team in C-USA. Now, sure, some of those seven issues were because of North Texas. But a huge portion of all of that happening at once is just pure bad luck.

Sometimes it’s just “that kind of day”. In this case, despite just playing a good team, Western just had some things that didn’t go right. Imagine if Josh Anderson had scored, say six instead of two. Cam Justice hits a three before the Tops are down double digits. WKU turns it over only 12 times instead of 15. Jairus Hamilton takes two or three more shots. North Texas misses shoots their average from behind the arc. WKU’s turnovers go out of bounds instead of straight into UNT’s hands half the time.

I know I’m rambling a little bit here, but my point is that WKU is still a good enough team to overcome some of these issues. Rumor has it, the NCAA may finally make a decision soon about Keith Williams. WKU has played without potentially its best this entire season. If the NCAA rules in his favor (which they better given all of these other ridiculous exemptions), all of a sudden, he’s going to show up and coaches are going to have to watch YouTube to get enough film on him for several weeks.

Regardless of that factor, if WKU goes to the Conference USA Tournament, they will be a tough out and they will likely have favor in their draw simply because the East Division is so bad. WKU is surely the odds-on favorite to win the East Division by a landslide. Old Dominion is not the normal Old Dominion, at least not yet. Marshall is 0-4 already. So is FIU. FAU is not much better. MTSU is actually decent but probably won’t compete this year. Watch for them next year. That leaves Charlotte, who could be decent but also is not likely to be a division winner.

That leaves WKU.

Keep in mind that C-USA Tournament seeding will be determined by division. So if WKU gets that “1E” spot, they’re playing like a one or two seed throughout the tournament. They get all of the favorable draws and game times if they win their division. So WKU has two losses. So what? They’re to two of the three best (other) teams in C-USA by a total of six points.

So here’s my approach to the rest of the season: WKU is going to be fine. They will compete for a championship once again, and they may or may not win. But they’re a good basketball team. And I still firmly believe they are the most talented group of seven or eight in Conference USA. Certainly the top six of the rotation is unmatched.

If WKU stays healthy—which is crucial with no depth—this team should be a top seed and get to at least the semifinals of Conference USA and have another chance to win it all and finally go to the Big Dance for the first time in nine seasons.

It’s then up to Rick Stansbury to bring it home from there. This team is going to be there, and if they’re not, I’m not sure what the heck happened along the way. That would be a different conversation at year’s end. But if the Tops do what they should, they should be atop C-USA in the regular season and should end up deep in the tournament once again.

Rick Stansbury, it is your time to shine, buddy. Let’s make it happen. Lead us from here.