WKU Basketball: Grading WKU's 68-65 Loss vs. UAB

Believe it or not, Rick Stansbury and the Tops were at their best Thursday night.

Big picture, this is a nightmare. WKU Basketball is officially at its worst start since 2011-12, when WKU started 2-6 in the Sun Belt before pulling off the infamous “25 Days of Triumph”, where Ray Harper magically turned around a woeful season in less than a month and took the Tops back to the Big Dance for the first time in three years. It’s now been nine long years since WKU went to the NCAA Tournament under Ray Harper the year after said 25 days.

WKU is now 10-10 overall and 2-5 in C-USA, playing seven straight games against teams with overall winning records. But this is Rick Stansbury’s sixth season. He has been “building” this program for years, and what should have been a coronation year last year with Charles Bassey and Taveion Hollingsworth (and others) became another year ending in disappointment.

Fast forward to now, and WKU has gone from looking decent to looking completely lost to this point in the season, near the very bottom of C-USA and currently sitting as what functions as the 12 seed (of 14) if Conference USA play were to cut off right now and head into the Conference Tournament. On top of the on court debacle, incoming freshman four star Zion Harmon was supposed to be a borderline starter for Western and he’s no longer enrolled in school. Cincinnati transfer Keith Williams was possibly the best player on the WKU roster this season, and he is deemed ineligible by the NCAA, possibly forever.

Fortunately for WKU, 11 more games are to be played. The conference season is still not even the life cycle equivalent of settling into a successful career in your early to mid-30s. So everyone just chill.

Perhaps this game against UAB was a turning point for WKU. As bizarre as that sounds, why would a fourth consecutive loss be a potential turning point for a team clearly headed in the wrong direction in the loss column?

Because in my opinion, WKU just played its most engaged game, its most strategically sensible game, and Western nearly pulled an upset when several factors went directly against the Tops and yet still, Dear Old Western nearly had its day.

Western lost by the number of hairs still on Andy Kennedy’s head (three) to what is clear to many now as the dominant favorite to win C-USA. UAB has now beaten the three preseason favorites in C-USA and only has one loss (at Rice). They’re 35th or so in most rankings and universally top 50.

They’re a legit team and on pace for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament and deserve that if they continue at their current high level of play.

That being said, WKU nearly beat them, and it was no fluke. It was not UAB playing like “trash” or WKU hitting everything known the mankind. In fact, WKU shot a very pedestrian 43% and nearly won. WKU went toe-to-toe with UAB. At times, yeah they were probably hanging on by their fingernails, but the Tops scratched and clawed with said fingernails until they found themselves in the game and just couldn’t get over the hump.

That being said, let’s grade out the Tops, starting with my Keys to Victory

Grading the Keys the Victory

Play Harder Than You’ve Played All Season: A+

Can anyone say they’ve seen WKU play harder and more together than in this game? Maybe the first FIU game was competitive with this one, maybe Louisville (although I think WKU was just lucky U of L didn’t hit open shots), and definitely a game like Ole Miss would be a strong argument against this being the best. But I would say this was absolutely a top five effort of the season, if not the effort of the season. It’s probably a top ten or fifteen all-time “toughness” game under Rick Stansbury.

I was thoroughly impressed with our desire in this game. I think of Cam Justice getting in the way of a pass on the sideline and forcing a turnover. I think of Jamarion Sharp getting a putback on the offensive glass. I look at eight offensive rebounds, and I look at UAB only grabbing eight. By the way, UAB was the very best offensive rebounding unit WKU had faced besides maybe UK and UAB was one of only seven of 20 teams that did not grab double digit offensive boards against the Tops. Without question, WKU played its guts out this game. Anything less than top marks would be an insult to the effort. Were there three or four times the Tops sunk back into bad habits and watched a three point shooter wind up and spray? Yes. Did we sit and watch said long shot with no one boxing out? Yes. But there were probably 3 to 5 miscues like that versus the consistent double digit moments in most WKU games that make you wonder, “What the heck are they thinking?”

Big Guys Need to try to Be Better than UAB’s Front Line: D+

UAB’s front line did not go for 40 or more points like I said would be a problem, but Trey Jemison (12 rebounds) was probably the one player on the court playing harder than everyone else besides maybe poor Dayvion McKnight trying to guard Jordan Walker and getting cramps halfway into the game. Jamarion Sharp was great, getting six blocks for the first time in several games. He also had six rebounds and scored 11 points. Jairus Hamilton was actually present in this game and had some big moments. And thank you, almighty Caboni above that he did get off more than ten shots this game. Jairus certainly does better when he’s getting looks at the basket. Unfortunately for him, personally, he missed some baskets that really would have helped Western win the game. He also missed a crucial free throw as well.

Here’s what the biggest issue was: These two guys had no help. If neither of these guys goes off for 20+, WKU is not getting significant offensive contributions from the post, period. No one else is even playing real minutes! In this case, I believe what tipped the scales to UAB was that Trey Jemison outrebounded WKU’s entire post positions himself, while UAB still had other contributions, as well. This was a chance for a Jaylen Butz to score a few buckets. He only had two turnovers in two minutes of action and was benched. Isaiah Cozart also got the same two minutes as Butz. He didn’t even touch the ball and I don’t think his guy did, either. So it was all on Sharp and Hamilton. Sharp did about his average, give or take. He was excellent blocking the ball and didn’t have as many silly plays where he jumped himself out of position. But Hamilton still isn’t back to his November self. UAB wins this battle slightly, and WKU needed to win it. So D+ for this grade.

Try Something Completely Different and Unexpected: C+

I led this point with the fact that Rick Stansbury needed to play at least one more player than his normal rotation of maybe 6.5. Well, he took care of that obligation by playing Isaiah Cozart and Jaylen Butz. About time!!! And that’s also what he said when Jairus Hamilton and Jamarion Sharp walked themselves to the scorer’s table two minutes later. And there they sat for the rest of the game. Rick Stanbury played only his chosen six players from that point on. Perhaps most alarming was the fact that Dayvion McKnight, the team’s prolific point guard, was not himself for most of the game and was out with cramps for several minutes in the second half. Apparently he had to have an IV and everything.

So from a rotational perspective, sure Rick played Isaiah Cozart. But he actually cut down on Jaylen Butz’ minutes and only played a baffling four minutes away from his chosen frozen. Four!

Now, to Rick’s credit, he actually switched things up strategically. As I suggested, he went with Dayvion to guard Walker, who was able to shoot right over him despite Dayvion following him everywhere. As I suspected, Dayvion did allow him to get past him a few times, but with McKnight guarding him in the first half, Jordan Walker scored 14. Rick chose exactly what I suggested as a second option, Josh Anderson. And it worked. Josh held him to seven points when guarding him, two of which were on a “foul” that was a clear block by Anderson that allowed UAB (and Walker) two crucial free throws that actually got him in some rhythm to help UAB in the final minutes. Rick also ran multiple defenses at UAB, including allowing Josh Anderson to token pressure in the backcourt, something that he is great at. Offensively, he did set some plays up for Jairus Hamilton, McKnight, Anderson, and even Jamarion Sharp. There were a few times he slowed the ball down a ton when down late in the game, and by the time WKU was set up, it was one-on-one ball with Dayvion McKnight or whoever happened to get the ball after Dayvion passed.

So I liked some of the creativity Rick showed. I liked the fact that he did play Cozart, albeit two minutes. WKU was clearly dialed in, and Western adjusted later in the game and found ways to get some more open looks. The Tops were +4 in the second half, and they just needed to be +7 to extend the game, and Walker saw to it that WKU didn’t quite get what it needed. But overall, this was a slight passing grade.

Guard Jordan Walker Ferociously on the Perimeter, But Don’t Foul Him: B

Once again, Walker was the difference on the night for UAB. Against La Tech, he hit nine threes. Against WKU, he was on pace for 28 points at one point. That man is lightning quick and has a pretty stroke as well as a good feel in the paint. And he can handle the ball. He’s the real deal. But I think Dayvion McKnight clearly did everything he could and just wasn’t the correct matchup for the Tops on Walker. Give McKnight credit: He was working so hard that he literally cramped up and had to get an IV to get back to decent basketball. After McKnight, Josh Anderson was stellar. Walker only took two free throws on a ridiculous awful call on Josh to give him his only free throws. For the most part, I think WKU made his life difficult. He shot his average from three, needing seven shots to make three from long distance. And from two, he did make five shots, a few of which were layups. But I think WKU was decent against him. He really just made incredible shots. There were a couple of his threes that weren’t really contested, including the last one. And he did blow past some defenders for easy buckets a couple of times. I believe of Walker’s 21, maybe seven or eight were not well defended. And he made WKU pay just about every time he was open. This was a pretty good job by the Tops. He scored three more than his average, ultimately. Way to not just stand there and watch their best player torch you. That’s all you can ask against greatness. Sometimes they’re just great.

Play Stansbury Ball: B

WKU pretty much did play Rick Stansbury’s style of ball for the most part. WKU made more free throws than its opponent shot. However, it was only slight. And Western missed crucial ones that would have tied the game or taken a lead. But WKU only fouled eight times all game. And UAB fouled 17 times. There was much more opportunity for UAB to allow WKU to shoot more free throws, but luck had it that WKU didn’t shoot a ton of free throws because of situational fouling. As far as turnovers, WKU was ok. WKU turned it over 15 times, and UAB forces 18 per game. That’s acceptable. What is unacceptable is six by Camron Justice. That is abysmal and something he had control over. A good three or four of them were just boneheaded mistakes. And the other two or three were somewhat understandable. If you want to win going forward, you cannot make several foolish mistakes that just hand the opponent the ball to lay it in at the offensive end. Eliminate the dumb ones and WKU wins this one.

Drive to the Hole, but Also Shoot Open Shots: B-

I honestly think WKU did this pretty well, as well. Western was aggressive to the basket. They did drive the ball. Josh Anderson went to the hole. Sharp had some dunks. Dayvion, when healthy, went after some baskets later in the second half. I think WKU could have been a little more aggressive getting Frampton the ball, but everyone else had their chances. No one shot less than seven shots of the other five on the floor. And without Frampton, WKU would have only made one three. So Luke did contribute, but a major part of this is also shooting good shots. I believe there were very few of these shots that were truly ill-advised shots for Western. Jairus may have taken a majority of the poor decisions from three, and I think Cam had one or two that were pretty rushed with a hand in the face.

I like that WKU took enough threes that if they had made a normal percentage, they actually would’ve made a difference from outside. Unfortunately, WKU was 1-of-7 in the second half, including the prayerful borderline heave at the end by Dayvion. Taking that out, WKU only took six threes in the second half and made one. That’s a little lower than what the Tops needed this game. So WKU ends up shooting 23.5% from three, and most of them were pretty good looks. If WKU would’ve just landed or hoisted another three or two, perhaps that would have been the difference.

Player Grades

Dayvion McKnight: C

I hate to pick on the gimpy one, but Dayvion McKnight absolutely did not live up to expectations this game. He may have been guarding the best player and that may be the reason he cramped, and credit to him for truly going all-out for the Tops and actually pushing himself to the limit. But also, he allowed Walker to nearly get his points average in the first half. He also was not himself, not even scoring ten points and frankly without a burst at the end, would not have even come close to his points average. With nine points and six boards, he wasn’t non-existent, but only three assists and two turnovers? That’s not the Dayvion McKnight we’re used to. I think it’s telling that McKnight finally turns in the effort of his life and his body isn’t physically used to the effort of playing all-out for a little more than a half of basketball. He has not been asking his body to put out the effort level that he put out Thursday. If you say, “Well, hold on, maybe he’s just tired from a long season!”, then you indeed agree that he needs reduce his minutes per game so that he can handle the workload of a full season? The man is playing 35.5 minutes per game after “only” playing 32 against UAB. He could stand a couple more minutes’ rest per game and have some addition by subtraction, so to speak. One way or another, this is yet another sign that these top six players are wearing thin. Ignore my observations at your peril, Rick Stansbury.

Camron Justice: D

Yeah six turnovers is terrible. Yes, he was asked to play point guard and took on a role he’s not used to. So? He’s still used to playing 30 minutes per game or more. And to say it was all on him was not true. Josh Anderson played point for several possessions in the second half and didn’t have three or four obvious silly decisions. It’s one thing to make a mistake. It’s another to just throw the ball to the opponent several times. It just wasn’t his best. He still was an impact player at times and his ability to finish under the rim amongst the trees while is unmatched on this team. His skills are important and he wasn’t awful except his turnovers. Any guard having six turnovers is a huge negative towards the team’s possibilities of winning against a really good opponent. And he didn’t make up for that mess with much offensively or defensively.

Luke Frampton: B-

Again, Luke was present at times and then utterly invisible. What you like is the lack of mistakes and the silent production like six rebounds. That’s very solid for a 6’5” guard. And 3-of-4 from the field is great. Only one turnover. Excellent work, sir. However, I still want to see him contribute inside. I still would love to see a hustle rebound and/or putback a game. Draw a foul or two every single game. Sometimes, he’s good for drawing a charge, and that’s excellent. But even that skill of late has waned. But if I’m Rick Stansbury, this is my exterior weapon. Run some plays for him. They actually did run a little bit of deep elbow action between Cam and Luke and it was shocking yet nice to see. That’s not normal Rick Stansbury movement. Usually it’s high elbow motion outside of the three point arc. Although it’s pretty, it’s much less penetrative and much more window dressing until someone gains an advantage and kicks to an open man on the perimeter or drives inside the arc.

With the fact that both Luke and Cam were cutting through the heart of the defense, the UAB defense was forced to account for them because if they were left open from eight feet, who in Division I college basketball can’t take advantage of an open lane two steps away from a layup? It’s either a wide open jumper in the paint or a drive to the square for a layup drill. Get Luke Frampton more involved. He’s playing well but not touching the rock.

Jairus Hamilton: C+

First of all, it’s a passing grade because Jairus Hamilton was aggressive and took enough shots to be the Jairus that we saw in early November. However, he still didn’t produce enough points or rebounds to be the real Jairus of early-on, either. And the UAB big men produced enough to boil down this grade into the C’s, as well. Decent performance from Jairus, but five missed threes, a couple of which were the most suspect shots from the entire team? Unless he’s hitting, I’d rather see 2-4 threes and a couple more drives or passes to the next guy to continue the offensive flow. But finally, we saw some actual aggression from Jairus Hamilton. He was playing hard and going after rebounds with ferocity. The rebounds didn’t show up, but his hustle was I’d say top three of the six players who saw any real minutes. Good for him for spurring this team on despite still not showing his very best out there. He is usually the most engaged player or two every night from a pure hustle and grit standpoint. And he almost always is not the problem boxing out, something WKU has not been good at in a long time.

Jamarion Sharp: B+

Nice to see the big dog get his averages once again. Amazingly, the man can pass out of trouble and really stays out of the turnover department every single game. What 7’5” big man in the history of college basketball has gotten starter minutes and not had a game with a few silly turnovers? Jamarion Sharp and Isaiah Cozart were the only two Toppers to not turn the ball over Thursday. That is remarkable. Sharp has 22 turnovers for the year and plays 28 minutes per game. Again, he is the only player of the top six that has less than 23 turnovers. Jaylen Butz has played less than ten minutes per game including the games he missed and still has almost as many turnovers (17) as Sharp.

But the reason Sharp is not an A is twofold: He continues to jump and allow driving opponents an easy bucket or an easy dump off for a dunk or layup to an open teammate. He also allowed Jemison, Buffen, and Josh Leblanc to rebound a total of 23 missed shots. Specifically Jemison was Jamarion’s main competition for rebounds. Jemison, first of all was going for those rebounds harder than anyone else on the court. Second of all, Jamarion still needs to learn how to box out. This was mentioned by Coach Stansbury in the FIU postgame conversation with Randy and Hal on the radio broadcast. Stansbury also blamed Sharp for not getting up on Walker on the last second three point attempt. He said he sagged too low and Walker was easily able to get off the shot.

Josh Anderson: A+

Once again, Josh Anderson is the best player on the floor, playing against the best player for most of the second half, and he doesn’t get over 25 minutes and still is way above everyone else in production. Explain yourself, Richard Bartholomew Stansbury. It doesn’t make any sense. I don’t care if he comes off of the bench. He’s your best player. He’s got the most experience of anyone on the roster besides Cam Justice, who checks his AARP benefits at halftime of every game between the injections in his back. Why is he consistently treated as the sixth best player on this team? 16 points on 13 shots and six rebounds while guarding the Player of the Year in C-USA and holding him down to normal to below average levels. Isn’t it conclusive that Josh Anderson should guard the other team’s best player and everyone else should figure out their guy from there? He can absolutely guard the 1 to 4 positions with ease, and I daresay he could stimy a big man, as well. If I’m Rick, I pick out my number one priority and tell Josh to annoy him the entire game. Because Josh still produces despite whatever defensive workload he is given.

Jaylen Butz: F

Unfortunately despite only getting two minutes, two turnovers in a matter of seconds is not good. Sorry, bud. You didn’t deserve to get benched the entire game for it, though.

Isaiah Cozart: A+

Out of pure spite, give him full marks. He did nothing wrong! I’m glad he got minutes that mattered. But why play him for the first time since December 18 if you’re just going to yank him back out two minutes later when he did absolutely nothing wrong? Are you trying to destroy his confidence? He’s the most loyal player on this roster, hanging around two extra years after his freshman season despite not getting any real respect as a legitimate player on this roster. Isaiah Cozart is 9-of-11 on the season, 4-of-7 from FT, has 13 rebounds, only fouled one time, zero turnovers, eight blocks, and a steal in only 47 minutes of action this season. He must be one lazy player in practice, or he is getting screwed out of playing time for literally no reason. Explain yourself or let the man play!

Coaching: B+

This game was not an indictment on Rick Stansbury. In fact, I view it as a slight positive compared to the absolute train wreck he’s been since Conference USA started. He did a good job this game. Give the man credit. Dayvion McKnight is cramping the entire second half and didn’t even come close to his normal and WKU nearly beat UAB? WKU had no business competing in this game regardless of game circumstance. I predicted a loss by 15 or more, and WKU came out and looked like the slightly better team that just couldn’t buy a bucket or a beneficial call. Give him full credit. WKU played as hard as it’s played in a long time. There’s no question about that. That’s steps 1, 2, and 3 to coaching is getting your players to buy in and compete for 40 minutes. Step four is teaching them to always box out and contest threes, but I digress. He still didn’t play more than six players. Technically, he played eight, but my fat 31-year-old butt was five minutes from playing more than two of those eight combined.

We also still saw the typical lapses in judgment defensively, allowing several wide open threes and some easy layups on defensive lapses. WKU also did not consistently box out on rebounds and allowed Jemison especially but others, as well, to pick up boards they shouldn’t have had. Sometimes UAB cashed in on those extra opportunities. This was a massive improvement, and these issues were minimal. But I think the biggest indictment came on the last play of the game. WKU gets the ball with 4+ seconds left. You have a timeout. You surely talked about the end of the game when UAB called timeout on their possession.

Your best solution down three is to have Dayvion McKnight, who has been hurting all game and doesn’t shoot threes receive the inbounds pass only shoot up a weak prayer? I would have rather hustled up and called timeout with 2.0 left in the frontcourt than give Dayvion a running prayer, albeit wide open and straight on from just outside the three point line. It was a great look for 4 seconds left, but I would have rather been in control of that situation instead of just letting the players play it out. McKnight is not your best option from three. Unless that really was your plan, call the timeout, dude. Most likely, you prepared for UAB to drive and try to get fouled. So if your conversation was anything but, “Let’s assume they make a 3 with about five seconds left. Whoever’s under the bucket, inbound it to Dayvion and Dayv, from here, you’re going to take it straight up the court and chuck it up as time expires and we’ll live with it,” then why isn’t the timeout used to calm the troops down, understand the situation, and make sure some kind of quality, thought out play is set up to give WKU the best chance to actually hit the game tying bucket?

You could have subbed out Jamarion Sharp and McKnight, subbed in Sherman Brashear, and told your guys that whoever is bringing the ball up (probably Cam or Josh), if they get stopped, look for one of your other four guys open for a quick pitch. Also, try to let the ball roll as far up court as possible. If you get the ball and you’re not the point guard on this play, immediately shoot the ball no matter what if you happen to get it. Or don’t sub in Brashear and let McKnight come up the court and dish to Frampton, Jairus, Josh, or Cam a la Brazelton to Rogers or similar.

Game Plan: A+

Give Rick Stansbury full credit. He had a game plan and his players executed it to perfection. WKU held a team that averages 81 points per game to 68. Check. UAB outrebounds its opponents. WKU lost that by one and was even on the offensive glass. Check. Dayvion and Josh guard Walker. Check. Switch up defenses. Check. Make UAB work for it offensively. Check. Win the foul and free throw game. Check (besides missing crucial FTs that aren’t the coach’s fault). Get your important players the ball in important moments and let them try to produce. Check. There’s not much to complain about at all in how Rick planned to attack UAB.

In-game Adjustments: A

I think Rick did a good job adapting to this game, as well. Josh Anderson switches to primarily covering Walker and shuts him down. WKU had trouble getting to the bucket in the first half and got lucky to make a few threes. Second half, WKU was getting to the bucket and didn’t take as many threes because they were getting quality looks in the paint. Unfortunately, they missed free throws and open shots that would have made these adjustments more worthwhile. My only issue on the night in this area was completely taking the air out of the ball and running down the clock when you’re down under five minutes to play. It ended up working out, but you limited your possessions. You could still take ten seconds to set up your offense, but don’t hold it until ten seconds left and end up throwing up a prayer that may or may not get answered. This is especially true when you have the momentum, the crowd’s in it, and your players are ready to go make a play. Just call a play and get on with it.

Game Management: B

My biggest flaw was the very end of the game when Rick didn’t make much sense. First, Walker is getting the ball, guys. Make sure he doesn’t get off a clean shot. If he rises up and makes an incredible shot, so be it. But don’t miss an assignment and frankly all five guys should run after him if he’s open at the end of the play. He’s the one taking the final shot. Anything else would have thrown the plan off. He’s an alpha. He’s not going to do anything but get it on the rim, one way or another. If he makes a pass and Jemison makes a layup, I’m fine with it. Stop the best player from doing exactly what he wants. And then the next play, your best thing to do with a timeout left is ignore it, inbounds to a hobbled Dayvion McKnight and throw up an off balance three? I just thought UAB pulled the right strings at the end and WKU didn’t. And Western got lucky that they called a foul on a three to even get in the position to tie the game in the first place. I think that’s a big enough indictment to knock it down a full letter grade.

Roster Management: D

I’ve talked about this several times. Heed my words: WKU will not win a championship if these six guys hog all the minutes the rest of the season. Bite the bullet now and sacrifice some possible temporary success now for a better chance down the road. Stansbury could go 0-11 from here on in and win five games in March and he would keep his job (assuming he didn’t get fired beforehand). But he may not keep his job if he stubbornly plays these six, loses several more games anyway, and doesn’t win a championship. WKU is 10-10. What difference does it make if WKU finishes 21-10 or 19-12? What difference would it be if they were 17-14 vs. 15-16 if WKU gets it done in March? Perhaps that last one there is a little excessive, but hopefully I make my point. Lay down your pride, Rick, or you will eventually lay down your career because of your pride. Adapt.

Motivational Coaching: A+

Hey, there’s no question he got his players to play, and that pure level of effort, if it is sustainable, will put WKU back in contention for a lot of things. Can WKU win the East Division? Well, that’s now going to take some serious help and running the table (or maybe losing one), but playing like this is good enough to win Conference USA. I firmly believe that. Full marks for Rick on getting these guys to truly play the hardest all season that I’ve personally seen. I didn’t get to see the Ole Miss game, so I can’t say for sure. But this was absolutely the best effort I’ve seen all season. Hopefully the Tops parlay this level of play into sweeping the next 11 games. That would be remarkable to say the least.

Overall: B+

Listen, this may seem wild and crazy to count a home loss as a high level grade, but given the way WKU had been playing, this was completely unexpected and refreshing to see them actually fight like they really wanted something. They said they told each other they were going to go all-in for each other the rest of the season starting with this game. I saw that. And they didn’t pee down their leg to lose this thing, either.

UAB is just really good, folks. I think they’re going to run away with Conference USA this year unless somebody steps up and takes it from them that hasn’t quite peaked yet. I don’t know who that would be, but there are plenty of teams capable of stealing one game from UAB. However, UAB is going to have to fade, or someone is going to have to get appointed by God himself to take down UAB in the standings. The postseason is a different animal and inherently more wide open, but after seeing every other contender besides Middle Tennessee now, UAB is the creme.

But for now in this temporary moment, WKU should keep their head up and feel good about that performance. That was an excellent showing, and it just happened to not be their night. They had multiple opportunities and just couldn’t cash in. That’s not on anyone, necessarily. Everyone made a few mistakes, but they weren’t the typical “WTF” mistakes we’re accustomed to seeing. Hilltopper Nation will get behind this team if they keep playing like that.

Moving Forward

For me, this was a nice step, but I’m trepidatious as it gets. Can we really sustain that kind of effort the rest of the season? Since we lost, is it going to deflate us, or is it going to galvanize this team to do what it’s capable of doing? Because frankly, WKU lost because it’s conditioned itself to lose the type of game it played against UAB. Western wasn’t used to the effort it took to win that game Thursday. But if WKU starts playing like that night in and night out, Western is going to win a lot more games this year and we’ll all be happy for them.

Rick Stansbury in my opinion bought himself two days before the boo birds start coming out in full no matter what. Western fans are frustrated, but most are not livid at this point. Rick Stansbury’s seat should currently be described as having an ice cube under a cool towel on top of a leather seat with a broken butt warmer that burns your thighs when you wear short shorts: It’s gotten warm lately, but it temporarily might feel like the dogs have been called off. Don’t be fooled, sir. We are latent in our anger, but the blood is still boiling since you blew that game against La Tech.

However, if this team wants to see what hell on Twitter looks like, lose this next one to Middle. No matter what, fans will be upset if WKU loses to Middle. Why? First of all, after seeing Middle play, if they lose, fans are going to wonder physically how WKU didn’t win. Middle is not a great team. They’re good and fundamentally sound, but WKU should win 9 of 10 at home against that team. Next year? Maybe not, but this year is the year to dominate Middle.

But more than that, losing to Middle will inflict temporary emotions of frustration for losing to a rival. But that will only intensify the frustration. The problem with losing this particular game would be the fact that WKU would be 2-6 in C-USA. They’d be four games back of Middle with another lost tiebreaker and 11 games left to go.

Then when you say, “Ok, we’re 2-6. Maybe this will be ok. Let’s look at the schedule.” at Charlotte. Well, they’re 5-2 and we haven’t won a road game yet! at Old Dominion. We never win at their place and Jeff Jones has our number. Home against FAU. Already lost to them. at UTSA. That one should be a win, but again, no road wins all season yet. at Southern Miss. That should also be a win. vs. Charlotte. Not a guarantee. vs. ODU. Probably a coin flip. at MTSU. Probably a loss but basically a toss-up. at Marshall. Well, they’re terrible and WKU should win, but Marshall just almost beat Middle in Huntington. vs. Marshall on Senior Day. Ok that should be a definite win.

Now go back and count the number of wins you see on that calendar as a guarantee? Can you stone cold lock any of them in? There are four that should be about 75% or more: UTSA, USM, and Marshall twice. The seven others, WKU will be fortunate to win any of them.

The ESPN app currently likes WKU in every game the rest of the season but the game at Middle. But if WKU loses this game, all faith is lost. All confidence in beating anyone will be lost by everyone but the most ignorant ostrich with his head in the sand.

Now is the time for the Tops to make their move. Now is the the time to start coming back into contention. If WKU wins the rest of its games (which they have a chance whether you believe me or not), with games left against everyone in the East but FIU and the two real prison toilets of Conference USA in USM and UTSA, WKU would mathematically be guaranteed second place and almost certainly would overtake anyone who tied with them because of all of these stacked potential wins and (therefore) tiebreakers.

That’s a big “if” y’all. What I’m saying, though is WKU has a stretch of what should be easier games. In my mind, Western is still going to get one of the top two seeds in the East. Why? Everyone else hasn’t played all of their games against UNT, La Tech, and UAB. WKU is done with the great teams until the conference tournament.

The East teams all play each other, so unless someone else decides to dominate the East, they’re all going to beat each other up starting Saturday when everyone but FAU plays as a solid dog to a West opponent or plays each other. FAU gets its test starting in February, when all but one game they currently project as no better than a 54% favorite in any game. They’re expected to lose five of their next eight according to ESPN.

Middle is actually favored to win nearly as many games as WKU. Everyone else? Charlotte favored in three. ODU favored in five of their next nine, but two are basically even. FIU favored in three. Marshall’s completely out of it already, but they’re only favored in three, as well.

How many is WKU favored to win through the rest of the season? 10 of 11 games. There are a couple of coin flips in there, but they’re still technically favored. So let’s just say those play exactly as expected. Here would be your C-USA East Standings at the end of February: 1. WKU 2. MTSU 3. ODU 4. Charlotte 5. FAU 6. FIU 7. Marshall.

Now ESPN projections are just purely current data stacked on current data. So it means absolutely nothing compared to how the teams play now. There’s still not enough conference data to say who really is best. What it means is WKU has far and away the easiest schedule from here on out. But the entire momentum of the season and the expectations will hinge on this one game today against Middle Tenne-freakin-ssee.

100 Miles of Hate, baby. Let’s get it, Tops. BEAT THE MUTS!