WKU Basketball: Hilltoppers Looking for First NCAA Tournament Since 2013, Must Take Care of the Ball Against #5 UTEP
It has been over 10 years since either of these teams have been dancing. That streak will soon be ended tomorrow night! Here's everything you need to know for WKU vs UTEP.
Overview
On Saturday, March 16, the Western Kentucky University Hilltoppers face off against the University of Texas El Paso Miners in the Conference USA championship. 3-seed Western Kentucky is coming off of a dominant win over arch rival Middle Tennessee 85-54 in the semifinals, winning for the 100th time in the rivalry and moving the Hilltoppers on to the finals with a chance to win the Conference USA Tournament Championship. The Tops will look to punch their ticket to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2013. 5-seed UTEP is coming off of a huge upset over 1-seed Sam Houston 65-63 in the semifinals, propelling the Miners to the finals for the first time since 2010 themselves. WKU and UTEP split their two meetings in the regular season. The home team won both games.
Notable Statistics (Through March 14)
WKU Stat Leaders
PPG: Don McHenry- 14.8 points per game
RPG: Brandon Newman- 5.7 rebounds per game
APG: Don McHenry- 2.5 assists per game
UTEP Stat Leaders
PPG: Tae Hardy- 15 points per game
RPG: Zid Powell- 5 rebounds per game
APG: Zid Powell- 3.2 assists per game
WKU Team Stats
80.5 PPG
46.7% FG
33.8% 3PT
39.7 RPG
13.5 APG
7.4 SPG
13.6 TO
UTEP Team Stats
72.9 PPG
44.9% FG
31.7% 3PT
32.9 RPG
13.1 APG
11.5 SPG
14.5 TO
Keys to Victory
WKU
First things first, Western Kentucky is going to have to take care of the ball. UTEP is currently the number one team in turnovers forced with 18.91 per game. The Miners have a lot of length and they are able to cause a lot of teams problems on the defensive side of the ball. WKU hasn’t been the best throughout the year when it comes to taking care of the ball, but throughout the Conference USA Tournament, they have been fantastic, averaging only 10.5 turnovers in their two games played thus far. They also had several turnovers in garbage time, or that number could easily be single digits. They are going to have to keep that going against the Miners, though, because the Miners are better than any team in the country at forcing turnovers and they will definitely be trying to force Hilltopper turnovers any chance that they get. Let’s put the number at 15: If WKU can keep it at 15 or less, you have to feel good about your chances. 20 turnovers and UTEP could steal this one.
WKU needs to make Tae Hardy work. Hardy is a 6’3” guard for the Miners and is leading his team in scoring with 15 points per game. the 2nd Team All-Conference member really has a well-rounded game and has been a big part of his team advancing to the finals. Western Kentucky fans are all too familiar with Hardy, because he has been a great player for the Miners for years and always seems to do really well against the Tops. The Western Kentucky guards are really going to need to be ready to stop Hardy and shut him down. He is able to drive the ball just as well as any guard in Conference USA, as well as being able to light it up from distance. He is a killer from just about anywhere on the floor and can definitely take over the game if the Tops aren’t careful. Hardy shoots 41.5 percent from the floor, so if WKU can keep him under 40 percent shooting, you have to take it. If he lights it up and goes for 50+, that is way more efficient than his normal.
Western Kentucky needs to bring the same intensity that they’ve had since they have arrived in Huntsville. If they do that, UTEP will have to play anointed from the throne of heaven to beat WKU. This WKU team came into the tournament on a four-game losing streak and has ended up winning two games in a row by 20+ points. The defensive pressure that the Hilltoppers have displayed in Huntsville is the same type of intensity that we all saw at the beginning of the season and it has been the main source of the Hilltoppers success in this years tournament. When you move the defense further and further beyond the three point line, the more you can mess up an opposing offenses rhythm. This is why you saw the low number of three-point attempts from New Mexico State in the first round and the low three-point percentage from Middle Tennessee in the second round. If the Hilltoppers can bring the same energy and intensity on the defensive side of the ball, they will have a great chance of winning this game.
Bonus from the Editor: WKU needs to take advantage of UTEP’s lack of depth.
UTEP will play seven players the vast majority of their minutes, and they may sprinkle in another player or two at times for less than ten minutes. WKU generally plays ten players, and has played their top ten players at least ten minutes in both games in the CUSA Tournament. Tae Hardy has played over 32 minutes per game this season. He fouled out against Sam Houston or would have played 30 minutes two games in a row. Could he get tired and get in foul trouble? Could WKU target some key positions and get them off of the court? All of these little things could help WKU seal the deal. Conversely, could UTEP get Rodney Howard and Babacar Faye in foul trouble? If so, that could force BJ Marable into the game and open up some doors for turnovers to UTEP.
UTEP
UTEP is going to have to get Zid Powell going. Powell is a 6’4” guard for the Miners and is leading his team in rebounds and assists. Powell, along with Hardy, is a big part of the Miners offense and is very good at controlling the ball. While he is capable of shooting threes, he is much more efficient when he drives the ball. Heis also a good defender. Powell had 5 steals and 7 rebounds in the Miners victory over Sam Houston in the semifinals. When Powell is on his game, he is a very tough player to contain and if he is able to get hot, they will have a very good chance of winning. If UTEP can get him in double digits and get him involved in the stat sheet across the board, that’s a good sign for UTEP.
To win over Western Kentucky, UTEP needs to rebound the ball. Western Kentucky is currently 21st in the country with 39.68 rebounds per game. Rebounding has been a huge part of WKU’s success throughout the season and when they are winning on the glass, they are usually winning on the scoreboard. UTEP has done well when it comes to crashing the boards throughout the conference tournament so far, but they will need to keep that rebounding streak going to have their best chance of beating the Hilltoppers. UTEP generally gets their possessions from turnovers and not rebounds, but against WKU, they need to just keep the rebounding close. If WKU wins by ten or more rebounds, that cancels out a lot of the turnover concern for WKU.
Finally, the Miners need to watch out for Don McHenry. McHenry is a 6’2” guard and is leading the Hilltoppers in scoring and assists. Although he has had a slow past few weeks, he finally got himself back to his old ways in the Hilltoppers victory over Middle Tennessee with 18 points to lead all scorers. McHenry was also the leading scorer for the Hilltoppers in both matchups between these two teams throughout the conference season with 18 in El Paso and 25 in Bowling Green. Danger!!! When Don has that floater going, Hilltopper fans know that he is one of the most dangerous, if not the most dangerous player in Conference USA. Just when you think he’s going to drive it again, he steps back and drills a three in your eye. When he’s hot, he’s very hard to cool down and the Miners are going to have to try their best to keep him under control because if not, they will have a very hard time winning this game. Keeping McHenry under 15 would be massive. If they give up more than 20, that’s a really bad sign for the Miners.
Bonus Key From the Editor: UTEP has to find some way to produce in the paint against WKU
What is WKU’s strength across the board offensively? Finding a way to get to the cup. UTEP has no real rim protector, with no one averaging above .63 blocks per game (Kevin Kalu). As a team, they have less than 100 blocks on the entire season. Teams generally outrebound UTEP, as well as shooting 45 percent overall despite a respectable 32 percent from three. UTEP does not really have a big man that can go for 20 points, or even really a big guy that can get a double-double. No one averages more than exactly five rebounds per game. What does all of that mean? UTEP is going to have play big, or they’re going to have to get out in transition and get to the cup that way. One way or another, UTEP needs to come up with something special inside.
Richards’ Expectations and Predictions
It’s championship time in Huntsville! Both fanbases are starving for an NCAA tournament berth and it will finally come for one of these teams. As of this year, Western Kentucky has been solid all throughout conference play and then all of a sudden having some lapses and finishing very poorly towards the end of the conference season. However, they seemed to have turned it around and they are playing the best basketball that they have played all year, which is what you look for at this time of the season. Without question, the past two games have been WKU’s best 80 minutes of basketball all season. UTEP is also playing their best basketball. They are currently riding a five-game winning streak and have just knocked off the number one seed in the Conference USA Tournament. Both teams have a ton of momentum heading into this game, but it is going to come down to whoever can ride that momentum and grind out this game. Both teams will be playing their third game in three days so you know that they will be a little worn out, but I don’t expect any player on the court to hold anything back. Both teams want it so bad, and it is definitely going to be a fun one.
For the Conference USA Tournament finals, I’m going 79-68 WKU. Western Kentucky is playing the best basketball they have played all season and they look like far and away the best team in the conference. UTEP is a solid team and I know nobody will believe this, but I penciled in UTEP in the finals against Western Kentucky! However, I don’t think that the Miners are going to have enough firepower to pull this one off. If Western Kentucky continues playing the way that they have been, it will be very hard for UTEP to pull off another upset.
Conclusion
The moment all Topper fans have all been waiting for is finally here. We have made it to the conference finals and have a great chance to win it. The wait could finally be over, and I can’t wait to watch it all unfold in person! If you are even the tiniest bit of a WKU fan, this team needs you in Huntsville. It’s only a few hours from Bowling Green and we have the chance to create a great environment for these Hilltoppers who have put in so much work throughout the year to get to this point. It’s our time to return the favor and be there for them when it matters the most. There is only one conference finals game, and we need to make it count. We can paint Huntsville red and create an amazing Diddle-like environment, which could prove huge for this game. If you aren’t doing anything Saturday, PLEASE come to Huntsville! It’s finally time. Let’s get this win Tops!
For anyone that is not able to make it to Huntsville, the game will be on CBS Sports Network at 7:30 pm CT. You can also tune into @thetowelrackwku on Twitter/X for build-up, live tweets, and reactions. While you’re at it, go ahead and check out the RedOut Podcast on Twitter/X and on YouTube. RedOut will be tweeting some updates, as well and responding to the action. They are also our video content guys. As always, we are your #1 source for unfiltered and honest WKU content!
