WKU Basketball: How the Heck the Tops Beat FAU

Western has won three in a row after a hideous start to Conference USA play. WKU is not right back in the race, and a win vs. FAU would firmly announce to the league WKU has awoken from its slumber.

It’s so fickle being a fan, isn’t it? Three games ago, you were ready to “fire the entire staff” and “get rid of this clown” and “Cunningham is not the answer”. So was I. And I think all of that does come back if WKU fades once Rick Stansbury comes back. Or if Rick never returns, we’re going to have to have some tough conversations, aren’t we/ All of that conversation can now wait, though, can’t it?

There are bigger birds to trap.

Big birds like the nearly ranked FAU Owls, for example. FAU (16-1, 6-0 C-USA) enters this game with one loss on the season and a top 15 NET ranking. Somehow, they still are not receiving legitimate national attention, and that is an absolute shame for their program, which frankly deserves a ton of credit for what they’ve done this year, seemingly out of nowhere. FAU has been a conference also-ran for years, rarely ever sniffing the top half of the standings. Now they have a two game lead (and a tiebreaker on the sole team with two losses, UNT), and there’s no sign of them stopping to let the conference catch up.

They have had some close calls, however. FAU has squeaked by North Texas by four points twice. They needed overtime to beat arch rival FIU, won by four against Charlotte, and beat UAB by two points. The only “easy” conference win was against FIU in mid-December. So the odds are either FAU gets much better and starts blowing people out as the clear conference favorite, or the more likely scenario is they’re going to drop a few games. From a WKU perspective, it is CRUCIAL that one of those losses be in front of what should be a sellout or near sellout crowd in E.A. Diddle Arena.

WKU (11-6, 3-3 C-USA) is riding high, having played three really, really good games in a row. Western did have one of its standard lulls—and I’m not giving FIU much credit for it, either—in the second half, allowing FIU to take the lead on a 12-0 run. There was also a lull early in the game after the first couple of minutes. Western mysteriously just loses focus for huge chunks of games this season, and that 12-0 run was something atrocious to behold. If WKU can’t fix that issue, they can forget beating FAU. That being said, FIU came ready to play and really created some matchup issues for WKU. They had a good game plan and made WKU figure out how to score for much of the game.

Before Western won a pretty routine battle for its first win against UTSA, the Tops nearly came back on co-conference favorite North Texas and nearly stole one in Diddle Arena. WKU could not overcome a 21-2 start by the Mean Green, ultimately cutting the margin down to three with 15 seconds remaining to fall by four after Kai Huntsberry made one of two freebies.

I think it’s a 50/50 split that the turning point was either the UNT comeback, or it was the truly brilliant performance the Tops put on against UAB. That argument probably lies virtually 50/50 if WKU fans were to have a pointless argument about exactly when WKU turned on the jets. The point is, we think WKU has turned a corner, we think WKU is playing better than it has all season, and we think WKU is ready to make a run at Conference USA despite it all.

So the Tops have the fan base excited. 4,700+ people came to watch the Tops play extremely well against FIU, a team that really challenges the Tops matchup wise. Again, given the seven or eight minutes of sleepwalking, the fact WKU outscored FIU by eleven was remarkable.

A crowd 1,000 over the average saw the Tops win in exciting fashion, and they really got fired up. Diddle hasn’t been electric all season, but it was very loud Saturday, especially given that it was 60 percent full. Multiple posts and comments on social media are calling for a sellout. We’ll see if it happens, but I’ll tell you this:

Diddle will be alive once again.

So it brings in the question. We know Diddle Arena is going to do its part. FAU is used to playing in a 2,900 seat arena that rarely sees a big crowd. Diddle will affect this game. How much, though? Also, what the heck does WKU need to do to steal one from the Owls?

Let’s be fair.

FAU is better than WKU. They’re favored by 4.5 on the road. ESPN gives WKU only a 40 percent chance at home. This team is rock solid. They can do everything, and they will score points. So what can WKU do to keep and keep down the potent Owls attack?

Let’s break it down in some Keys to Victory…

The Keys to de-Hooting the Owls

Hey Diddle-Diddle, the Tops Better not Come to Twiddle

If you’re a Western player, coach, staff, or admin, you’ve got what you want. Your fans are going to go ballistic trying to help you win this game. Bring the fire. Bring the juice. The sauce. Dive all over the floor. Get the crowd up. Get into each other and don’t let the red wave stagnate. Hopefully Diddle Arena is its best, but make it its best by being awesome. Western fans will go crazy for effort. If the Tops come to play, Diddle will do its part. Also, this first key speaks to the “sleepwalking” that WKU tends to do. Hopefully the Diddle crowd won’t let that happen. But if it does happen, you can almost kiss an upset goodbye. FAU is too good to play around. This is going to take a UAB-like focus, and it will likely be harder than it was against UAB, although that one was on the road and this is at home. I still think FAU on the road is a better team than UAB at home. Play your best. Remember your fundamentals.

Speaking of which…

Remember the Fundamentals

Western did a pretty good job against FIU rebounding the basketball like they should. For one of the first times all year, WKU outrebounded FIU. WKU is one of the tallest teams in the entire country. Depending on how you slice things statistically, WKU is the tallest team in the country. Yet Western gets slaughtered on the offensive glass every night. Why is that?

I’ll spill the secret: WKU does not box out consistently.

First of all, this is not a bash session. This is not a shot at the coaches. Or players. But Western doesn’t box out consistently. Go back and look at the UAB game. How many times did Jemison have an easy offensive putback opportunity? How many times has Jamarion Sharp allowed a defender to come behind him on a free throw and cleanly rebound the ball? Specifically, how many fouls could Jamarion (who fouled out) have avoided vs UAB if he had used fundamentals on the defensive glass? How many times could you pause the TV and observe WKU players standing around while opposing offensive players crash the boards around them? I have watched the Louisville, Middle, and UAB games wire-to-wire. Anytime there was anything other than a routine rebound, I watched back to see what happened. Far too often, Western watches. Western “high points” the ball, but doesn’t find a body to keep out of the play that ultimately makes the play because they are tracking the ball better than the flat-footed Topper. Or said player tips the ball from the Western player and tracks down the loose ball. Western is playing a team that outrebounds its opponents by more than six rebounds per game. After an excellent performance vs FIU, Western still is getting outrebounded by two rebounds per game. I will not complain one bit about the performance if WKU plays hard and boxes out. Numbers don’t matter as much as effort. But watch and see for yourself if they box out. If FAU got an offensive rebound, was it a bad bounce or bad technique. This is a huge Achilles heel.

Guard the Three Ball

Western is horrendous against the three ball. That is the unfiltered truth. WKU is 248th in defensive three point shooting percentage. WKU also allows a significant amount of three point attempts per game. I have said this plenty of times. Part of this is the Rick Stansbury philosophy: Pack the paint and deal with some three pointers going in. Let them bomb away and we’ll constrict the paint without fouling and they won’t have enough opportunity to keep up. That’s sound logic.

Here’s the problem, though. WKU allows threes to be shot, and is near the bottom 100 in preventing those balls from going through the net. On top of that, the Tops do not clean up the boards very well defensively, allowing opponents to get rebounds, especially when it comes to three pointers. Long rebounds tend to favor the offense. So WKU is the tallest team in the country, but doesn’t do much to prevent the three pointer being shot, doesn’t contest it well when it is shot, and doesn’t clean up the mess once the other team shoots the generally open shot from deep. WKU must do well in one of those three areas: Cleaning up the defensive glass on three pointers, getting up in the offensive player’s face and making him take tough shots, and keeping FAU from taking so many three pointers. FAU is very good at all of these things, so it is monumentally important to prevent the Owls from doing exactly what they want to do.

Junk it up a Little Bit

FAU is smooth. They’re a lot like Rice offensively, but they play much better defense. They have a pretty style. Fun to watch. Lots of points. They shoot upper 40s in percentage. They hold their opponents to at or slightly above 40 percent most of the time. Western holds opponents slightly under 40 percent shooting most of the time. If this a pretty, offensive game with lots of flow, doesn’t that favor FAU? WKU is way more of an iso team, anyway. Western relies on its talent to get buckets. Hopefully, they can scheme up some decent opportunities as a team. But if they don’t, the Tops need to make this game ugly. Make it a grinder. Don’t let FAU just crank from the flank. Don’t let them run. Crash the boards. Get nasty. If they’re loose under the basket, foul them and make them earn it, especially if it is Vladislav Goldin and the player fouling is not in foul trouble. Don’t sit there and watch a layup happen. Make a statement if you’re going to foul (without a flagrant foul call). Make this a physical grind of a game, and I think it’s way more a WKU style than an FAU one. FAU is just smooth. They don’t force a ton of turnovers. They’re just solid everywhere. Make the Owls work for everything. Asphixiate them in every way you can, both with their lungs and with their opportunities.

Be the Better “Team”

That’s a tough ask. FAU is a very, very good team. They’re united. They play well together. They have a very positive assist-to-turnover ratio. So how does WKU hang with that and even beat that efficiency? Be efficient themselves. I’m not necessarily talking about shooting percentage. That ebbs and flows. But I think of the Lady Toppers Saturday at FIU. The Lady Tops shot 30 percent or so from the floor. Less than 20 percent from three. But why did they win? Less turnovers. More free throws. More rebounds. They easily controlled that game despite an awful shooting night on the road.

WKU needs to make good decisions, and they’ll be in good shape against FAU. Did the Tops take the best shot available? Did WKU just stand around and iso for more than a few possessions in this game? Did WKU clean up the messes they had? On inbounds plays, does WKU have good eye discipline? Does a shot blocker pull himself out of the play and allow an easy dunk? Do the Tops stay out of serious foul trouble? I’m looking at the little things for the biggest indication for why this game goes one way or another.

Prediction

Can you sense it? If WKU can win this one… isn’t WKU announcing itself as one of the four teams in the conference again (FAU, UAB, UNT, WKU)? WKU would be 2-1 against the best teams with a four point loss after being down by 19 (UNT) as the only loss.

I think Western fans are ready to jump on something exciting later in the year. It’s been a while since WKU really showed a consistent ability to dominate Conference USA. Western usually has its moments in the non-conference, and then by the end of January, we have no idea what kind of team is going to show up the rest of the year.

Well, regardless of the feeling against Rick Stansbury and this program the past seven years, WKU is trying to announce how serious it is to Conference USA.

Now, at this moment, do we know for sure that WKU is serious? Or is this another moment that leads to bitter disappointment? Of course we don’t know that yet. But for now, this team has charged this fan base with some really good energy that resulted in really good basketball the past three and a half games.

So that being said, will the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers win this game against the Florida Atlantic Owls?

I don’t know.

FAU is so balanced. There’s not one player to watch out for: There are nine or so. Vladislav Goldin (64% FG) is a guy that draws way more fouls than the rest of his teammates, but only shoots 55 percent from the stripe. How does WKU defend him, and does he get Jamarion Sharp or Jairus Hamilton in foul trouble? Johnell Davis shoots nearly 45 percent from three. How does he fare against the Tops? However, he is not alone, and he also doesn’t take the most threes on the team. He’s got seven other friends who shoot at least 34.6 percent from three, and literally no one else really shoots threes. The aforementioned Goldin has attempted zero threes all year, for example. That may help Jamarion Sharp a ton. Just stay in the paint, big fella.

FAU gang rebounds, with no one averaging more than 6.1 per game, but as a team, they average 6.6 more than the opponent. How does WKU defend against a team that’s good and united from every angle?

I think it’s just about effort and execution. Does WKU play great from an effort standpoint? Is the crowd “beating Louisville last year” loud? Is the crowd “Ray Harper mic flip on Senior Night” loud, so to speak? If the crowd is no factor, that makes me think it’s more of a straight-up battle, which I don’t like. Remember, FAU is the better team at this point in the season. We don’t deny that. If WKU doesn’t play hard for 40 minutes, you can forget it, in my opinion. I don’t think the Tops can afford slippage of more than a minute or two. If FAU goes on a run, let it be because WKU can’t buy a shot and FAU hits everything with a hand in their face at the shot clock buzzer. Let it be 7-0 instead of 12-0 or 21-2. In that case, WKU can survive that. Handing chunks of points without resistance is out of the question.

So if we lay down those two factors (WKU’s crowd and the players’ effort and focus) as guarantees, I think that lays a foundation for a coin flip scenario. I think it then comes down to who is better on the night. I think strategically, WKU needs to keep FAU thinking. Make them work. Switch up defenses. Put Tyrone Marshall at the point of the press and the trap and run that 1/3 of the game, at least. Run 2-3. Run man. Run a box and one (although I don’t love a box and one against FAU myself) or some other junk type of defense a couple of times. Maybe a 3-2 would be interesting with a small lineup, or even with Tyrone Marshall down low with Jamarion Sharp. Take some risk here and there.

I really doubt WKU comes out and just lays an absolute egg against FAU. This is too big of a game, and WKU tends to play well and hard against teams it perceives as real threats. It’s a rare “stinker”, so I’d throw out that possibility. I think Diddle is going to be raucous. How does FAU handle that? As a program, they haven’t had too many “big time” moments. They have a lot of youth on their team. How do they handle the pressure?

I also think even without Emmanuel Akot, WKU is still the most talented team on the court most nights, especially in C-USA. I firmly believe if both teams play their best, WKU wins. FAU is a great combination of talent and skill, though. So it comes down to who physically plays better, who gets a little lucky, and who executes in the big moments.

I believe this Western team is ready to announce itself.

I believe the Tops are going to get it done and shock Conference USA, actually coming through in the biggest moment of the season thus far.

WKU does not lay an egg, this is a moment to remember for years to come, and WKU wins a thriller in one of the highest quality games in Diddle in years.

Both teams play well, but WKU takes down Florida Atlantic. I’ve got Western Kentucky 75-Florida Atlantic 69.