WKU Basketball: Keys to Putting a Ring on it Against UNT

Frankly, I like it, so I’d really like to go ahead and get that ring this year, Tops. WKU is in the Conference USA Championship for the…

Frankly, I like it, so I’d really like to go ahead and get that ring this year, Tops. WKU is in the Conference USA Championship for the third consecutive (presumably finished) time. I refuse to use a cliché immediately.

Western has come so close, first against a team they frankly should have beaten with a little bit better presence of mind in Marshall. But that was the first championship experience since 2013 and hindsight is always 20/20. WKU tried to out Marshall Marshall that day, and Marshall tried to out-WKU WKU. It was like a Freaky Friday thing, but ultimately Marshall won because the carnival rim had a lip on it and Lamonte Bearden’s floater that went in a thousand times popped out. That and WKU needed an 11–0 run to even get to that point but WHATEVER.

Then in 2019, WKU drew Old Dominion, good ole steady Eddie, and frankly was outmatched and lucky to be in a close game. ODU was just better that year.

Then 2020. Just…freaking 2020 in general. COVID, you suck.

I’m sure North Texas fans would agree, because North Texas was the favorite to win last year, winning the outright regular season championship and seeming like one of a few teams to beat heading into Frisco.

Everything got canceled and the rest is history.

Heading into 2020–2021, North Texas and Western Kentucky were the two teams that were picked to be here in this very spot. North Texas hit a few more speed bumps than WKU, dropping some games maybe they shouldn’t have late in the season. Or maybe C-USA is just so darn good that UNT just ran into a gauntlet while getting into a funk at the same time.

Clearly, they’re out of their funk enough to win three in a row, and surely to Pete they’re chomping at the bit to prove they were the ones who should be getting the chance to repeat in 2021 instead of never getting to prove their mettle.

Well, they’ve got their chance, and I would be utterly shocked if UNT doesn’t show up Saturday night looking like a hungry team. They may be worn out, having played three games to get there vs. WKU’s two, but my prevailing theory is once you get in the championship game, all bets are off. Everybody’s tired and everybody wants it.

It’s a different animal and the teams destined for greatness rise to the top and get it done. Of course fatigue can play a factor individually, but adrenaline generally brings out the best in everybody. They’ll be so jacked up, they’ll act like maniacs for the first five minutes, then they’ll be winded and dead legged for another five, and then we’ll see if any team has gained an advantage from that jumbled mess.

That’s usually how a championship game works. It’s not a rule, but from experience, I don’t recall too many championship games that start out with one team shooting lights out and never stopping and the other just doesn’t show up or fight back. It really is likely to be a jumbled mess that just makes it that much more exciting.

So first, let’s look back at my Keys to Victory from UAB. Spoiler alert: They weren’t as dead-on as UTSA! Oh well.

Keys from UAB

1. Injuries and recovery. Besides Bassey, no one showed any signs of physical issues all night. Then again, if Charles Bassey was that injured, it didn’t show enough to keep him from throwing DOWN on UAB, going for 22 points, 7 rebounds, and 4 blocks. Amazing performance. In all seriousness, can we not shout out Charles for one of the most gutsy performances by a Hilltopper ever? His back had to be bothering him at some point, and even if he didn’t feel it, he played more passively, shooting more jumpers and being less active until the second half. He not only found a way to contribute, but he seriously led all scorers, rebounders, and blockers with an achy back. I mean this performance was up there with Courtney Lee playing with a broken hand. It was incredible to observe.

2. The guards need to play well. I did highlight McKnight with my first few comments in the keys, but I definitely didn’t think he would do what he did. That young man is no longer a freshman. He is a certified beast. The Dark McKnight (stolen from that there Twitter) went for 15 points, nine assists (only two turnovers), three steals, and heck even two blocks. Apparently, he drew five fouls, as well. AND the guy absolutely played lock down level defense. A+ effort, and frankly McKnight’s effort compensated for a poor effort from Tay Hollingsworth and Kenny Cooper. Jordan Rawls was competent to good but did nothing to stand out besides three assists and no turnovers.

3. Win the free throw battle. That didn’t happen. Free throws and attempts were basically even, with WKU making one less and shooting a lower percentage than UAB. Ultimately, I believe the style was more of the key. Since the referees really let them play for the most part, the first half was way more to UAB’s liking, while WKU really got out and ran when they could while limiting the turnovers in the second. WKU finished with 16 turnovers, but nine happened in the first 20 minutes.

4. Battle of the grown men. Really typical of UAB, their big men were not huge offensive factors. This was an unexpected style from Charles Bassey, but it was successful. Charles shot from the perimeter and midrange rather than banging down low. His post-up scores were mainly hook shots. His close buckets were tip-in layups, instead of powerful alley oops and dunks in traffic. Finesse was the name of the game, but no question Charles Bassey ruled the roost. Yes, Kassim Nicholson was 5-of-7 from the floor with ten points, but he was also the worst +/- on the entire team (-7). Carson Williams, as I predicted, struggled against a bigger team. Overall, the story was Bassey finding a way to be effective despite pain and McKnight getting to the hole and slicing and dicing in the lane. In an unexpected way, WKU won this battle.

5. Handle the pressure. Without question, this was almost to the undoing of the Tops. They are playing with fire on this subject. They easily could have been down ten at half with the way they turned the ball over, especially given that almost all were live balls. But WKU figured out how to handle the pressure of both UAB’s traps and also the pressure of being the favorite. Ultimately, WKU turned it on late in the first half and into the second, really stamping their claim on the game. However, they play with fire by not coming out focused and prepared for whatever the opponent throws at them.

Prediction: WKU 65-La Tech 64

Actual: WKU 64-La Tech 60

Keys to Victory Against UNT

1. Understanding the situation. It’s a championship game. I’d be remiss to not say whichever team handles the pressure of the situation ultimately wins the game. Does someone act out and get a technical? Does one team play nervous? Does WKU learn from its mistakes in previous championship games? How do both teams handle the energy level?

2. Contain their guards. Javion Hamlet was the 2020 Conference USA Player of the Year. He’s a 6'4" point guard that can dump in 20 points with no problem. More relevant to this matchup, who on WKU’s team can guard him straight-up? Taveion Hollingsworth is shorter, McKnight is thick but short, and Josh Anderson is long and athletic. Josh Anderson could probably guard him, but should Rick Stansbury use him to guard someone a little taller? The Toppers have a defensive mismatch here, because James Reese is another 6'4" guard that can shoot it from deep. Perhaps McKnight covers Reese and Anderson covers Hamlet? Maybe Tay can cover Mardrez McBride, a shorter shooting guard who also shoots well? The point is North Texas has some good guards that can really shoot and score. Shut them down and the Tops have to feel really good about their chances.

3. Carson Williams needs to feast. Carson Williams should have an opportunity to be productive this game. As his main defender, he should likely draw 6'6" Thomas Bell. Bell is a productive and efficient offensive player and is a decent shot blocker defensively. But he also tends to foul and is a lean body. That’s a good combination for the beefy Williams to get inside and do some damage. There is nothing that makes an impact on WKU’s chances like Carson Williams going off. Look at Thursday’s performance against UTSA. WKU won easily because a second post presence posted twice his scoring average.

4. Charles Bassey needs to dominate Zachary Simmons. Simmons is a 6'10" senior and a four year starter. He’s a double digit scorer and also a good defender. He’s a really good player and surely is hungry to win. So what, though? Charles Bassey is the conference’s best player and a force down low. He just put a line up of 22–7–4 with a hurting back. If Charles wants to be a first round pick, these are the guys he needs to dominate. With North Texas’ strong guards, the Topper forwards need to be dominant and make up for a likely mismatch.

5. Attack, attack, attack. The Tops need to attack for a variety of reasons. First of all, everybody’s going to be tired. Why would you choose to shoot outside when you’re less likely to make shots from the perimeter? Drive the ball. Also, the Tops are not a three point shooting team. It’s not your strength anyway. In addition, UNT generally fouls more than its opponent, shoots significantly less free throws, and does not have a significant rim protector. Heck, UNT is also not deep and has had some injury issues. All signs point to driving to the hole and daring the Mean Green to stop them. Western Kentucky forgot itself against Marshall in 2018, shooting outside shots and not being aggressive. WKU was timid against Old Dominion in 2019. There’s a common theme here: WKU tends to lose its identity randomly. But WKU’s identity is banging inside and drawing fouls. So do it, Tops.

Prediction

I said from the beginning of the tournament that UAB was the scariest matchup for WKU in the whole field. I believe that to be true, but North Texas is a close second. North Texas has bigger guards than WKU, experience, motivation, quality wins/performances, and talent. They even have a big man that could draw fouls on Bassey and also be a really good defender on the other end. They have the second or third best player in the conference in Javion Hamlet.

This is a matchup issue for WKU without question. I’m sure this is broken record territory here but ultimately, WKU should win. They may not, but they should. They have more talent and they’re deeper than anyone else. They’re certainly deeper than North Texas and more experienced. But WKU is maddening. They came out against UAB. Hollingsworth watches the ball go out and the UAB guy dives out of bounds and nearly throws it off of Tay and Tay turns his ankle. Williams assumes the call is WKU and lets the ball go and they decide the ball is UAB’s. WKU would have lost if it played the way they did in the first 15 minutes of UAB for a full 40. Fortunately, WKU had the extra gear and UAB couldn’t match it.

Imagine if WKU would have just played hard and to their identity for 40 minutes against UAB. That would’ve been a 15 point cakewalk. If Western Kentucky played 40 minutes every game, they would be a top 20 team. But they don’t. Maybe they can start. We welcome the change, Tops.

But WKU is so talented that they can still not reach their potential and beat North Texas, and I believe that is what happens Saturday night. I believe this will be an absolute battle and North Texas will put up a great fight. They may even take a double digit lead, but I think by the end of it, WKU just has too much firepower, and if they would just wield it correctly, they should win easily.

I believe this will be an easier game than UAB. I believe North Texas’ aggressive defensive philosophy plays much more into WKU’s aggressive, attacking philosophy than UAB’s very similar approach. I think despite more talent, North Texas is not as scary for WKU. WKU’s offense inside is better than the Mean Green’s stable of solid guards. I believe North Texas makes some rookie mistakes, and WKU acts like it’s been there, because they have multiple times.

WKU wins the 2021 Conference USA Men’s Basketball Championship over North Texas, 72–65.