WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory at Southern Miss and La Tech
How the Hilltoppers get started right in Conference USA
Well, that last one was exciting for a half and a few minutes and then an embarrassment. Western goes down in absolute flames to Kentucky 95-60. With 18:46 remaining, WKU had suddenly cut a nine point halftime deficit down to four, and of course, Western fans were going nuts. “Can you feel it?!?” Then that quickly melted. By the under 16:00 timeout, UK was up 16, WKU needed to quickly turn it around, and the Tops proceeded to score a measly ten points the rest of the game.
So after beating Louisville on a huge high on the same day the football team made NCAA and program history, WKU Basketball comes out next game in impromptu fashion lays a huge egg right before conference.
So where does that land us?
Frankly, the UK result changes nothing. The only thing it does it crap on any at-large bid opportunity unless WKU literally runs the table from here on out until conference tournament time.
So table those talks.
Western is #111 in the KenPom, #136 in the NET, and #107 in the BPI. They are firmly out of the conversation, and only four C-USA teams are above them in most rankings. Everyone else in C-USA is below WKU and most will drag down all numbers.
So let’s wait well into late January before we even bring it up again.
So once again, it’s pretty much going to be about Conference USA. How does Western position itself, how do they handle load management with a (still) hampered roster. How does Jamarion Sharp stay healthy, for example?
Sharp did not play after spraining an ankle in the second half against UK.
Southern Miss (3-9, 0-0 C-USA) is a program reeling from fairly recently losing Doc Sadler, a pretty decent coach that took USM from sanctioned to 20 wins in a few years. Now USM is back to the cellar in C-USA.
La Tech (9-3, 0-0 C-USA) is a program that has had a ton of potential for the past several years and has never fully seen success. Last season, La Tech made it to the semifinals of the NIT, beating WKU in the quarterfinals. La Tech returns a ton of experience, and Kenneth Lofton, Jr. is a second year freshman (thanks, COVID) averaging a double-double.
So as WKU heads into conference play, what are some keys to beat USM and La Tech?
Keys to Victory vs. Southern Miss
Play Good Basketball
It seems silly, but anytime you get in conference play, weird things happen, especially in the early part of the conference season. Everybody believes they have a new lease on life and nothing they did before matters. In their mind, no matter how ridiculous it seems to anyone outside of the locker room, they believe they could be champions. So these first few games are dangerous simply because every team should be ready to play. Once a team is has a few losses, they’re not as juiced up to play and believing they can conquer the world. Play well or you could be in danger. And honestly, USM’s roster is not in great order. They have very few pieces left over from their years being competitive under Doc Sadler. If WKU shows up and plays well, they’re winning.
Make Them Score 70
USM is 4-8 on the year. They have only scored more than 67 three times all year. This is a team that struggles to score. If you can create problems for them by scoring points, you’ll be in pretty good shape regardless of the defensive effort (more to come on defense). If WKU can score more than 70, they’ll almost certainly beat Southern Miss.
Handle the Post Players
Honestly, I expected USM to be its typical shortish hybrid player roster. USM usually doesn’t have much size, but Isaih Moore and Tyler Stevenson are actually two pretty good post players. With Western’s post depth issues, it is crucial to keep these guys, who are really the team leaders in a ton of categories, at bay. Don’t let them draw a ton of fouls. Don’t let them feel comfortable defensively. Hopefully Jamarion Sharp is healthy and can play well. Jairus Hamilton hopefully plays well. Somebody between Butz, Cozart, and Darrius Miles should hopefully provide enough depth to keep these guys in check, assuming they’re all cleared to go.
Pedal to the Metal
If WKU has a chance to blow USM out, do they take it? It’s not as crucial when the teams get a day’s rest, but minutes add up over time. With WKU’s depth issues, wouldn’t it be nice for Rick not to have to play his starters 35 minutes apiece in the first conference game? Let them control it by 15-25 and put in the bench and expand the lead. That would be great. Basically, first of all, if you’ve got a chance, don’t let them back in it. Second, don’t waste the mileage on your body. How many WKU teams of late have seemed to lack energy late in the year? Sometimes the tank runs dry. Spread out the minutes and let some fresh legs eat up clock. Being well-rested against La Tech would be nice.
Make Outside Shots
This stands to reason, but so far in 2021-22, it is almost a certainty that if WKU struggles from three, they’re either losing or trying to survive. When shooting under 35% from three, WKU is 3-5. They’re 5-0 when they make more than 35%. Also of those three wins when missing threes, two of those games were five point victories against teams they should beat, and the last one was against a Division III school. So although WKU doesn’t shoot a ton of threes, the offense flows so much better when Western can knock down some shots.
Keys to Victory vs. Louisiana Tech
Kenneth Lofton, Jr.
Just…get in his way. This is a really juicy matchup. Sharp and Hamilton and others against Lofton? I would assume Rick Stansbury would play zone against La Tech, given this guy’s girth and the fact that he’s way thicker than Jamarion Sharp and Jairus Hamilton. Could Butz be a good matchup against him? Maybe if he brings his big boy pants. But this guy is a monster. He was good last year, but now he’s looking like a pro. He’s averaging a double-double at 6’7” and 275. He’s a big boy. And he’s really good and athletically plays like he’s lighter but bangs you like he’s heavier. He’s a load and Western struggled against him last year. Who can handle him? NC State gave up 36 and 17 to him. And for such a big guy, he doesn’t get in any massive foul trouble (only two games with four fouls). This is a poor man’s Oscar Tshiebwe with one less inch, more girth and more anger. Any takers?
Get Some Bench Production From Somewhere
WKU needs a bench that can do something. If Rick Stansbury wants to continue to trot Luke Frampton out there as a starter, then Josh Anderson doesn’t really count as the bench. Frankly, I think Frampton would be great off the bench. He’s more geared to a bench player: Streaky, hard-nosed, experienced, and a hard worker. Anyway, not including Josh Anderson (if he’s not in the starting lineup), WKU needs somebody else to be the seventh (and if possible find an eighth) man off of the pine. You’re probably not beating one of the best teams in the conference with starter only production most nights.
Get Your Hands Up
You’re probably playing zone, or at least you will at some point during the game. Even if you go all man-to-man, this team is extremely dangerous from three. Seven guys shoot better than 34% from three, meaning everybody’s dangerous. This team scores 80 points per game for a reason. Get up in their grille and be willing to risk fouling a little more than normal in order to make them squirm. But still keep your Rick Stansbury principals of not fouling unless you need to. And just because you’re in zone doesn’t mean you’re not up on people on defense. Get in their face.
Get in the Paint and Draw Fouls
La Tech’s opponents shoot more threes than La Tech. And they have had plenty of games where opponents shot in the 20s or so from three. Why? Probably rushing and taking early shots. La Tech is the one that has the myriad weapons outside. WKU’s advantage is creating mismatches. Jamarion Sharp: He’s pretty tall. Jairus Hamilton: Big body that can shoot. Josh Anderson: Freak athlete that takes care of the ball and is selfless. Luke Frampton: When he’s on, he’s unstoppable and a heady defender. Cam Justice: Mr. Church League looks like nobody, plays like somebody. Dayvion McKnight: 6’1” but shaped like a linebacker and drives relentlessly to the basket and makes plays off of the dribble for himself and others. All of them are mismatches, and most of their strengths are not really their shooting abilities. They’re all competent outside, but no one is Steve Kerr standing in the corner waiting for the ball, so to speak. They all can drive. So drive, already.
Make Them Work
La Tech is probably a slight to decent favorite heading into this game. That’s fine. They should be. They’re at home. What I’ll say is don’t lay an egg and make it easy on them. Fight for it. This could end up making the difference later in the season. These early games have a funny way of haunting the losing team in one way or another, especially for the road team. So make them want to vomit. Get physical. Be nasty. And make them work for what they accomplish on both ends. They’re going to score. But make them make tough shots. Offensively, they give up 47% shooting. Take advantage and make them have to guard you. Get under their skin a little bit.
Prediction
I think Southern Miss is a no-brainer. I don’t need to explain much here, but as long as WKU has some pieces in place, they shouldn’t lose to USM. USM may be a cellar dweller this season, but looking at their roster, they do have some pieces that can make things difficult for an opponent. I’ve still got WKU winning pretty easily, 79-63.
As far as La Tech, I’m 50/50. WKU has shown us a little something, but how do Butz and Cozart handle coming back after COVID? How’s Jamarion Sharp’s sprained ankle? He may not be able to go, so I see a lot of question marks. I believe if WKU is healthy, though that they could and probably should beat anyone in C-USA. I’m thinking with a hobbled Jamarion and some question marks in the frontcourt (don’t forget Hamilton’s bad back, as well), this one might be tough for WKU to pull off. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if WKU comes in juiced up and ready to go and wins this one, especially with La Tech’s smaller crowds this season. Perhaps the home court advantage won’t be as pronounced. I’ve still got La Tech beating WKU, 76-71.