WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory at Charlotte and ODU

What does WKU need to get one or both of these games on the road?

I’m just going to combine the Keys to Victory for this week. I’m not going to do individual keys, because I think we need to focus on WKU and not worry about the opponent.

If I’m Rick Stansbury, I’m working on my team and not worrying about opponents anymore. Sure, we’ll game plan and make sure we’re aware, but it’s really about us at this point. We’re not right. We need to get back right.

So break it down and keep it simple. They should be plenty motivated. Have some fun. Don’t make the weight of the task of overcoming a losing streak be the focus. But also don’t ignore it, either. This isn’t to be taken lightly.

Being in some losing locker rooms, be it in church league or middle school or when I was working with WKU Football, losing is always tenuous. Losing a bunch in a row just weighs on you. But what happens most often during a losing streak is the team is not that concerned, then they get concerned and motivated, and at some point when they’re probably going to break through, somebody (or multiple people) just stop caring and give up. They’re tired of losing, so their attitude and focus goes and they just give in to the fact that they’ll never win. And slowly over time, you lose people.

Well, WKU is at the deep concern portion of losing, but I firmly believe they’re still engaged and no one has given up on anything. However, give it two more weeks. There will be issues if they haven’t won a game in over a month at that point.

So it’s absolutely crucial that WKU beats Charlotte. And if they don’t, it’s even more crucial that they find a way to beat ODU.

So what does WKU need to do to get it done against Charlotte and ODU?

Charlotte Preview

Charlotte is clearly led by one man, Jahmir Young. Averaging 19, 5, and 3.5, he’s doing a little bit of everything. And he’s not your typical one man show that doesn’t shoot a high percentage. He’s very efficient on all three levels of scoring and has a nearly 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. So obviously he’ll be someone WKU needs to limit. Charlotte does go eight deep or so, although they do play six men 18 minutes or more. However, two other guys average 8.5 and have played almost every game. Also, Musa Jallow has only played eight games, but has played in all recent games. So he is clearly in the rotation, as well at this point.

So they’re not that deep, but they choose to be deeper than WKU. Charlotte is not an elite scoring team, only scoring 69 per game, and they’re not great defensively, either, giving up more points than they score at 71. The 49ers shoot free throws incredibly well at over 76%. They also shoot more than their opponents. They shoot well, but they also allow their opponents to shoot well, as well. They have some decent rebounders, with several at around six per game. As a team, they generally get outrebounded by a few per game, though. So Charlotte is clearly a team that is inconsistent. They have a decent overall record as well as in conference, but they struggle defensively and consequently rely on offense to bring them through for the most part.

Old Dominion Preview

Old Dominion is still Class Jeff Jones, minus the elite defense and talented offensive players that take care of the ball. ODU still plays ball in the 60s, but this team has not nearly been the same team it’s been in the past several years. Unless ODU really turns it on late in the season, ODU is unlikely to finish in the top half of C-USA, even with a really weak set of division opponents.

ODU scores and gives up about 66 points per game. They don’t take or make a lot of threes, but their opponents shoot a ton and shoot more than 5% better than they do. ODU is not great from the line, but they do attempt more from the charity stripe than the opponent. ODU also goes eight or nine deep when it has players available and certainly goes a solid seven deep no matter what. Very balanced, five guys average between 8 and 15 points per game. ODU is solid on the glass, outrebounding by three per game. Old Dominion also has some solid presence inside, with three guys averaging six or more rebounds, and in the blocks department, ODU has five guys with seven or more blocks on the season. Two average more than one per game.

So ODU is solid as usual and is just looking for elite talent to reload for another run at a C-USA title. With a weak East, ODU could find itself right there hunting for a bye at the end of the year if they just get a little more consistent. If they were to get that, only needing three games and playing a weird style could go a long way in hunting for a championship.

Keys to Victory vs. Charlotte and ODU

Focus on You

Listen, C-USA is really good. Nobody is going to beat themselves in this league. Well, except maybe WKU so far. But the Tops need to get focused and take care of themselves. The reason for a 2-6 record is not the difficult lineup of opponents, although WKU is the only team to have played North Texas, La Tech, and UAB already. But Western needs to realize that this streak doesn’t end until they get their act together. Offensively, it’s not really that far off. I think WKU could do a few more things to emphasize certain players, and I think in-game adjustments need to get better. But defensively (and in loose ball scenarios), I’m just looking to see unquestionable effort. Regardless of coach’s rotations, regardless of who gets what minutes, all you can do is your best. Don’t gauge effort. Just go all-out. It’s not tournament basketball until further notice. You want a chance to dance? Now is the time to get on track. Win your next four and we’re in a different spot. Lose the next four and you’re basically eliminated from having a real chance to do anything.

Do it for Rick

I’ve never seen a losing team not want to win for their coach. I’ve never seen players not gravitate to sticking it to the administration or the fans or whatever that doubt them. They have plenty of fuel that should burn a fire in the gut if they’ll just use it. At the end of the 2009 season of WKU Football, we said, “Do it for David!” Also, when we were 0-11 in church league, my Dad, David, was our coach and we said the same thing. Just kidding. But seriously, if you’ve ever been a part of a losing team, there is a ton of camaraderie and you really want to do well for each other.

Do it for Each Other

Whatever motivates you, honestly. If playing for Rick Stansbury doesn’t get your juices flowing, play for your brothers. Unite and fight. Players only meeting. Whatever you have to do. When WKU was 1-2 in 2013, there was a players only meeting. The Tops were a mess, Bobby Petrino made it miserable, and finally the Tops came together and won seven of nine to finish the season. It didn’t matter how miserable it was. Do what the coaches say, play hard, execute, and shut up. If you want to turn around a season, fighting against anything is either going to make it worse, or it will take even longer to turn around whatever you’re sticking your neck out for than just shutting up and trying to win. And when you have the freedom, do what you know is best to win.

Play Your Style

Both of these teams slow it down in different ways. Despite shooting well and opponents shooting well, Charlotte doesn’t score 70 per game. ODU scores 66. So where is your advantage? Play a little faster. Force them to work. I believe Rick Stansbury makes a big mistake almost every time vs. ODU by not token pressuring them. I’d token pressure most of the game against these two teams. You will create easy baskets for Dayvion McKnight and Josh Anderson, but also, they won’t get into their system until 15 seconds remain on the shot clock. They will walk the ball up and start their offense for 25 seconds if you let them. If you press, you’re either forcing a turnover or keeping them busy doing what you want them to do for half of the shot clock. Make them uncomfortable! Even in the halfcourt, why not play with a 1-3-1 trap? They will be forced to make panicked decisions, and this year, none of the players for either of your opponents have an elite point guard, nor do they want to play speed-up ball against a junky defense.

Adjust the Scouting Report

Let’s say whatever the game plan is turns out to be completely useless. Both teams are making shots and playing a fast, up-tempo style. What do you do? The team you prepared for doesn’t exist. Adjust accordingly. This is something Rick Stansbury struggles with, especially defensively. Offensively, he can usually find some way to create something, although it may not be the easiest method. Defensively, WKU is very vanilla, and they rely on blindly switching defenses and the main thing to keep opponents on their heels. There has to be more than that going forward.

Predictions

I think if WKU played up to its potential, this is no problem for the Tops. Charlotte struggles to stop people. Old Dominion’s defense is not as good as it was and the offense isn’t great, either. WKU tends to score no matter what. They’re going to score 60, even against an elite defense. So what does WKU need to do to get in to the 70s and 80s. Get into that level and you should be in pretty good shape offensively in both games. Defensively, whatever your strategy is, whether it’s 2-3, man-to-man, matchup zone, or pressing, just be solid. Don’t let the other team waltz to the basket. Don’t give them offensive rebounds. Guard the three, regardless of whether they shoot it well or not.

Like I said if WKU lived up to its potential, they would be fine against both. However, these are both on the road and WKU hasn’t shown enough focus to win at times, especially away from home.

I’m struggling. WKU win both or lose both or split. Both of these teams are good enough to just play really well and force WKU to be perfect. They’re also capable of laying eggs. Also, how does WKU handle fatigue against ODU?

I believe WKU is due. I’m going to call WKU winning both games. I think one will be close and one will not be. I have no rhyme or reason why ODU or Charlotte. I’m honestly just hoping this is what happens.

I’ve got Western Kentucky 69-Charlotte 65.

Then we’ll go WKU 72-ODU 57.