WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory at UTSA and at USM

What does WKU need to do to get it done in San Antonio and Hattiesburg?

Western Kentucky Basketball is back in the thick of the conference race, or at least they are not staring at the 12th best record of 14 teams. Western now sits alone in fourth in the East, but more importantly is only 3.5 games back of first and 2 games behind the all-important second seed, the last spot for a Conference USA East team to get a bye in the Conference USA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

So yay for WKU getting out of a huge hole. Now they’re in it. And the schedule lightens up significantly for this being a brutal Conference USA where every team is capable. All things considered, WKU has by far the easiest schedule of anyone in the entire conference going forward.

But the Tops need to cash in on said easy schedule. One of the biggest tasks was doing what they just did Thursday night: Beating Florida Atlantic. The previously East-leading Owls now sit only two games ahead of WKU in the standings, and WKU should put pressure on them going forward simply by being close to them in the standings.

But for WKU, the road to contention still needs a few more weeks of travel before it really starts getting serious. WKU is only 5-6 in Conference USA. Middle Tennessee is 7-3. WKU gets UTSA and Southern Miss in two road games over the next three days. It’s never easy winning on the road, but these two teams have a combined two wins in C-USA. If Western can just hold serve and get it done against these two, by that point, WKU could be tied for third place or MTSU could have suffered a loss to Charlotte. Either result is a good thing for the Tops, although WKU really needs Middle and FAU to lose some games. Old Dominion should lose to UAB Sunday, as well. So if that goes according to plan, WKU will be extremely comfortably in at least fourth place with a cushion. If Charlotte loses and WKU wins its two games in three days, Western will actually sit a half a game ahead of Charlotte. Then WKU plays Charlotte Thursday at home.

So USM and UTSA are very similar challenges in terms of record, scoring, and defense. So let’s break down what WKU needs to get it done and feel good about themselves afterwards.

Keys to Victory

Play the Bench

This isn’t exactly how I would phrase this in the locker room if I were Rick Stansbury, but WKU should probably be able to sleepwalk through these two games and still win. That doesn’t mean they’re not capable, but if Rick Stansbury really only plays six players against these teams all the way through and the Tops win by 15+ in each, I will just have to shake my head. I understand you can’t send different messages to your team, but you are in the middle of playing five games in ten days and you’re playing six players. By the USM game, your guys will be dead legged for sure if they have to play the entire game for three games in a row. Then they’ll barely have time to rest before playing a huge game against Charlotte and then follow it up with ODU. Play the bench, please. This is your chance!

Slow Down the Bigs

Both teams’ big men are the best players on their team. Jacob Germany is everywhere, doing everything, shooting a high percentage, you name it. I was following the play-by-play against MTSU and the guy is involved in everything. He’s assisting, he’s rebounding, he’s blocking, something. He’s always involved. And then for USM, Tyler Stevenson leads the team in scoring, rebounding, and blocks at a 15-8-1 clip. It’s going to be crucial for WKU to make these guys work defensively. Germany is probably going to give Jamarion Sharp more trouble than Stevenson, given that he is 6’11” and more skilled overall. But Stevenson is very athletic. Regardless, WKU needs to keep them at bay and they should be fine.

Be Efficient

Both teams give up over 70 points per game and score in the low to mid-60s. UTSA averages 66, but that number is inflated due to a couple of cupcake games early in the season. So most likely, if WKU scores 75, they’ll win. Anything less than that and the Tops are inviting a battle in one or both games. For WKU, make shots. Shoot well. Don’t turn the ball over a ton. Doing that should go a long way in keeping these two teams at bay.

Tune it Up

This run of games is a chance to experiment a little bit. Find out what your team can do. How tough are they? Can they do what you ask them when they’re tired? What defenses work with this squad? Can you run a 1-3-1? 1-2-2? Full court press? 2/3 court trap? I believe early to mid-February is still a reasonable time to get some final adjustments in and learn more about your team before you hit the stretch run. Take some opportunities to try a couple of things while your guys are tired on this lengthy stretch of games and see how they respond. This isn’t out of disrespect for the opponent. This is game two and three of five in ten days. If you want to go a perfect 5-0, you better get your team some rest and keep it fresh. Take a few risks in the immediate to benefit in the long run.

Stomp on Their Throat

Again, this is a stretch of five games in ten days, meaning by the end, you could be pretty ragged. How do you stay fresh through a tough stretch? Get it done and get off your feet. If the Tops could win at least one of these by 20 or more and sub in some fresh legs in the second half, that would give them a chance to not be so ragged heading into playing Charlotte and Old Dominion Thursday and Saturday of next week. If you get the opportunity and you’re up 15 early, don’t let them back in. Control it and expand it. If they’re hanging tough early, keep coming at them and break them when you get the chance. Teams like USM and UTSA are downtrodden mentally. They’re usually pretty fragile. They’ll believe maybe they can get one every game, but as soon as they get popped in the mouth, they’ll usually fall in line and lose by double digits. But MTSU actually allowed UTSA to get its teeth into the game and had a battle on their hands Monday. If it’s a tough game, it’s a tough game. Both teams are capable of winning games. They could play well and give WKU a game. But if the opportunity is there, pounce on it, get it done, and move on.

Prediction

I’ll keep this pretty short, because I don’t think there needs to be a ton of explanation. WKU is clearly better than these two teams. Sure, it’s two road games and a second and third game in five days. And both opponents will have at least four days’ rest when they play the Tops. That’s a tough variable. But it’s no excuse.

If WKU is going to compete for a championship this year, the time is now. If they can’t be motivated when they’ve finally clawed back into decent position but still have a ton of work to do, that’s on them. They should be plenty motivated. People are counting them out. They’re not respecting the Tops anymore. Western has so much talent. Few teams in the country have six players that can score like WKU does. They’re all capable of taking over the game.

So let’s see a team that looks hungry. Let’s see a team that takes care of business. Insatiable appetites. That’s what February is about. You’re heading into the final stretch. You have less than four weeks of games left and you’re heading into tournament play. It’s time to get tuned up. There’s no excuse for a team that’s down in the standings with as many expectations as it had preseason to be unmotivated.

Perhaps the optimist in me is too strong, but I don’t see WKU struggling if they come out ready to go.

So I’m picking WKU with ease in both games. I like UTSA to give WKU a little more trouble than Southern Miss, but the Tops will still dominate.

WKU: 81, UTSA: 64

WKU: 85, USM: 60