WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory at MTSU

In perhaps the most pivotal game of the year for WKU, what does Western need to do to beat the arch rival?

Western Kentucky has battled its way back into position to be the two seed in the East. Regardless of Florida Atlantic’s results, WKU would win the East Division if they win the rest of their games. Now with FAU losing to ODU, the door is wide open for WKU to walk straight in. So what is the absolute biggest obstacle in the way of that? None other than Middle Tennessee, the program’s biggest rival for years.

In fact, 100 Miles of Hate has taken over as WKU’s most prolific all-time rivalry at nearly 100 games played since World War II.

The past few years, the tide has tipped back towards WKU, but MTSU mainly had WKU’s number in the 2010s. A decade dominated by Kermit Davis, Davis left for Ole Miss in 2018 and the Blue Raiders have not been good until this season. MTSU, picked to finish in the play-in games in the C-USA Tournament, is now looking like the second best team in C-USA and the outright East Division winner barring epic collapse.

MTSU has three losses in Conference USA, all of which came to quality opponents in the West Division. Perhaps the eyebrow raiser of that statement is the loss to Rice. However, Rice is a quality opponent that faced a buzzsaw of a schedule. Regardless, MTSU has waltzed straight through all East opponents, having only two games within six points (both against Marshall) against any East Division opponent this year.

So the Blue Raiders have several hurdles still to jump before they can walk into the Conference USA Tournament with a month long win streak. They have three games that ESPN BPI says they have no better than a 62% chance to win in each game. For you nerds out there, that means MTSU is actually likely to lose at least one game before the end of the season.

It is crucial for WKU for that one game to be Saturday night.

If WKU loses, FAU could climb back in to an even record with WKU, and then it’s up to the tiebreaker scenario. WKU most likely holds the key tiebreakers, but a win at Middle absolutely seals it and gives WKU a two game lead.

Anyway, it gets complicated if WKU loses another game. It becomes much more simple for the Tops if they beat Middle. In fact, the second seed will be virtually clinched.

So what does WKU need to do get it done Saturday?

Keys to Victory

Bring Pure Hatred

It’s not just another game. Whoever plays rivalry games like that is an idiot. I’m sorry, but if you don’t channel your cross-town high school rivalry hatred into this game, you’re wrong. I understand that you don’t want to make any game bigger than it is, but for the purposes of your season outlook, this game should be the Super Bowl so far. I said last week that Old Dominion was the district championship. Well, now it’s the first game of the region and you got the bad luck of the draw that you get to play the best team in the region in the first round. Let’s say they lost the district championship but finished second and lucky you gets the random draw.

The main thing is play your guts out. You’re on a week’s rest and they just played a tough division game Thursday. And on top of that, they played a really good opponent in UTEP on Monday. They’ve played two games since you finished Saturday, so if WKU is clearly the less energetic team, it’s time to question why. WKU should be chomping at the bit and feeling fresh. Maybe Jairus Hamilton will be the only person with an excuse not to come out demon possessed. But Western needs to put everything it has into this game and see what happens with the two Marshall games. This is the big one. Rick would say it’s the biggest one because it’s the next one. Sure. So make it the biggest game you’ve played all year. Because it actually is. Winning this one now means you get a bye.

Be Western Kentucky

Don’t lose your identity. You are a really efficient team that makes more twos than threes. And you make more foul shots than your opponent takes. You hold your opponents to the low 40s in percentage and they are forced to take a lot of threes, which hopefully you choose to guard most of the time. That’s your identity. Middle’s athleticism compared to WKU’s last game. That surprised me, but it won’t this time. Middle has some athletes, and any good to great athlete is capable of pulling something they are not generally capable of out of nowhere. That’s what happened at WKU in January. WKU allowed Middle to get comfortable and Middle had the shooting game of its year and WKU couldn’t keep up to the 93 points Middle put up.

Don’t Let Josh Jefferson and Donovan Sims Beat You

Last time, Middle’s two best players combined for over half of their points, a positive assist to turnover, rebounded above their average, and forced WKU turnovers. They did everything and both had their season highs in points against WKU. I firmly believe if you keep these guys off of the three point line (Middle’s two main three point threats) and make their lives miserable, WKU should immediately have the upper hand in this one. Middle has gotten better offensively, but they are still not a good shooting team. They have barely made 1/3 of their threes. So my challenge to WKU would be to force these two guys to drive the ball for their points, and keep the rest of Middle’s guys away from the basket and make them be the ones to shoot to win. If you force these guys to score tons by shooting twos and drawing fouls, it will be difficult for them to combine for 50+ like before.

This Team is NOT the Same Team You Played a Month Ago

Middle has clearly been on a tear. They played UAB and got blasted by them right after playing WKU, but since that point, Middle has scored at least 71 in all but one game (ODU) and has won every game by six or more points (besides this last one against Marshall). So yes, last game, my game plan was to try to outshoot Middle. I think that’s true to some degree, because Middle does struggle to shoot from the outside. However, I think it’s clear that Middle felt extremely comfortable against WKU, and it was because the Tops let Middle see a few go in. Get up in their grille and be physical. They can mainly match your athleticism, so your normal advantage in that area is going to be minimized. So you’re going to have to play harder, smarter, and execute better. Use your experience. This WKU team is much more experienced than MTSU in many ways. Be it big game experience, overall experience at the Division I level, or late season gut check experience, WKU has way more in that area.

Press the Issue

I believe WKU needs to make MTSU make plays under pressure. Am I saying to press the entire time? No, but MTSU likes to pressure. How does the saying go? The team that presses doesn’t like to be pressed? So I believe Western did really well when pressuring last time against Middle. And frankly, any time Josh Anderson is out on the floor, it’s not a bad play to put him at the point of the press, Dayvion McKnight near the front, and tell them to give ‘em hell. When I look at MTSU, I look at a team that still doesn’t have a dominant force down low, a dominant force in the assist game, or a dominant individual scorer. Josh Jefferson is a really good player, but he is not usually going for 25+. He is more solid and just always going to be there, with the exception of his 31 against WKU (go figure). He has only had five games in the 20s in points. So I believe WKU’s advantage is the elite scoring ability and the elite athleticism of WKU’s entire rotation. Any one of them can go for 25. Very few Middle players are doing that, but they also have much more depth.

I still like forcing Middle to be uncomfortable. Why did they score 93? Rhythm. When did they struggle? When WKU pressured them. Why did WKU struggle to stop Middle? Because Middle was able to handle WKU’s athleticism. So what is your response? Make this entire game about decision making and efficiency. If Middle is going to beat you, it’s because they’re going to take care of the ball and take good shots. You’re not giving them any easy buckets, and you’re not allowing them to do whatever they feel like. You dictate the outcome of this game and live with the consequences.

Prediction

I still believe MTSU is a pretty good matchup for WKU. I believe WKU’s athleticism is the best in C-USA, along with the skill set of a top six that may not be matched by many programs in all of college basketball.

I believe Middle struggles to shoot at times, but the question is, “Will WKU pounce on them and never let up?” Or will Middle be allowed to dictate, press, and run WKU ragged?

I know MTSU is the better team with the better record, but I still like the matchup. I think Western should be able to exploit Middle’s lack of huge size, the lack of an elite point guard, and the lack of multiple superstars.

I believe WKU can win this with a mindful game plan and some decent luck. Although Middle scored into the 90s the first time, that was their offensive game of the year. If Middle wants to rely on that to get it done against the Tops, bring it on. I think that’s advantage WKU.

I’ve got WKU winning in a war. This could be an epic battle. Let’s say WKU 74-MTSU 69