WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory at FAU and FIU

What WKU needs to do to improve to 4-2 in C-USA play

After a 1-1 record at home against good competition, WKU heads back out on the road this week needing to stack wins. Western gets its first look at FAU, a team with a decent overall record that honestly is very confusing to scout. The latter game of the weekend is a tilt in the morgue known as Ocean Bank Convocation Center against an opponent WKU already handled at home by 13, the FIU Golden Panthers.

FAU is known as a school that generally floats around the middle in basketball. Well, this season, they are on track to do just that. However, before absolutely stomping all over Charlotte Monday, FAU looked like an absolute train wreck. FAU’s only other conference win came against Marshall, a team that sits at 0-4. I put them near the bottom of the stack in my “State of C-USA” article and FAU comes out and blows the 49ers out. But with a bizarre 96-67 win against Charlotte, a team that I tabbed in that same publication as a possible contender for the second East Division seed, maybe FAU is going to pull together and be a decent team and finish ninth or so like they were predicted in the preseason poll.

FAU is really interesting, because they have some games they’ve scored in the 40s or 50s, and then they’ll have games they score in the 80s and 90s. So this team is clearly capable of throttling a decent team, but it can also fall off the face of the earth.

WKU’s Saturday opponent, FIU, is interesting, too, because they have faced all decent teams to start C-USA but have been blown out in each game with the exception of a five point loss to ODU. They stand at an ugly 0-4 record but have plenty of talent. Western actually faced FIU on January 8, winning by 13 despite FIU seemingly playing as good as it possibly could have.

In my opinion, FIU is a dangerous team, as well and in my opinion not a great matchup for WKU despite the Hilltoppers probably being the clearly better team of the two. Western had to play really well to cruise by the Golden Panthers at home, 84-71. But will it be different on the road in front of a silent crowd? Surely the Tops will have to generate their own energy instead of having the crowd at Diddle spur them onward.

My guess is this will be a lower scoring game than the game played in Diddle.

So what does WKU need to do against these two mysterious teams in order to come out ahead this week?

Keys to Victory vs. FAU

Score

With FAU possibly scoring in the 90s, if the Owls play well, WKU is going to match whatever offense the Owls can throw at WKU. Both teams average over 75 per game, so this game could easily climb into the 80s and 90s if both teams are clicking and can’t stop each other. FAU shot 61% and 16-of-21 from three against Charlotte. Clearly they could just go off. WKU better be ready to score.

Attack Vladislav Goldin

FAU has a 7’1” freshman center that is a good young talent. He starts, but he only plays 17 minutes per game. Clearly he’s working on being a better asset for his team, but one thing that really stands out is his foul total. He’s got 41 fouls on the season, more than anyone else on the team and only one other player is even close. That tells me he acts like a freshman sometimes. Take advantage of his inexperience. He doesn’t score very much, but he’s a really good offensive rebounder, blocks a few shots here and there, and takes care of the ball (only 19 turnovers all year). This is a body that can bang with Sharp. Attack him. The next tallest player that plays any serious minutes is 6’9”, so again, go after the size that could possibly neutralize Jamarion Sharp’s.

Slow the Pace Down, but Not Too Much

FAU has not won a game scoring less than 75, and they clearly like a fast pace in general. The danger about this team is they can be piping red hot or they can be ice cold. How do you know who you’ll get from night to night? But one way to get them out of their comfort zone is to slow them down. I wouldn’t mind a 2-3 zone against this team, or a matchup zone like WKU played against UNT, even though they do shoot 36% from three as a team and take a ton of them. If it wasn’t for this last game against Charlotte, that number would be much lower. But I believe finding ways to slow the pace down a little bit would benefit WKU much more than it would FAU. Now, this idea could be dangerous, because WKU really likes to run, as well. Maybe WKU could provide some token pressure. Rick Stansbury believe token pressure can actually slow a team down, which can be true in terms of making them take eight seconds before even coming into the frontcourt. Regardless of the particular defense, WKU wins games by being efficient offensively. FAU wins games by putting up a ton of shots. There is a difference in styles despite both scoring high 70s most nights. The more methodical and thoughtful WKU is while being incredibly efficient, the more the Toppers will succeed against a team that likes a true faster pace.

Win the Free Throw Battle

FAU has actually taken a ton more free throws on the year, but their opponents also take a ton. That’s just their style of play. They’re going to draw tons of fouls, but they’re going to commit some, too. WKU doesn’t hardly foul at all, so can WKU defend without fouling a ton, and also, something Rick should consider is should he let his team foul a little more in order to prevent easy buckets against FAU? WKU also shoots a couple of percentage points higher than FAU, so does either team go cold at the line? If it’s a close game, this will be another indication of style of play. This is a game the Rick Stansbury free throw philosophy will really be a good indicator of a win or loss for the Tops.

Handle the Bench Waves

FAU is a team that definitely plays its bench. They have experimented with some lineups, etc. So it’s imperative for WKU not to let several guys off of the bench have good games. With WKU’s lack of depth, giving up unexpected 8-12 point bursts from random unexpected players puts a lot of pressure on Western’s 6 or 7 players that will see the floor. FAU just keeps coming. They have several short guards that contribute significantly. They have other players that are very versatile that will play a bunch of minutes combined. FAU will probably be pretty multiple on defense and offense, so how does WKU handle a plug-n-chug type of approach to substitution patterns and defensive adjustments? Can WKU keep track of assignments? Can the Tops keep someone from spraying all over the stat sheet?

Prediction at FAU

I think WKU should be ok in this game. FAU does present a matchup problem or at least a negator of some normal advantages in a few areas like size, athleticism, shooting, and depth. They may not be the most talented team in the conference, but this team could beat anybody and lose to anybody.

So this is a danger game for sure. WKU should be on high alert. However, I see inexperience at the center position and a possible advantage for Sharp and Hamilton to have a good day inside. FAU’s top four scorers are guards, so if WKU can handle a versatile, guard heavy lineup that can shoot, the Tops will be fine.

I believe FAU comes back to Earth and WKU comes out focused after dropping one to North Texas. I think the Tops will be feeling the need to get two road wins to get back on track and they will start it out right in Boca.

Western Kentucky 75-Florida Atlantic 59.

Keys to Victory at FIU

Be Ready for Their Best

FIU is 0-4, and they’re also seeking revenge for an earlier loss. That tells me two things: They’re going to feel desperate, and they’re going to study what they did wrong last time and try to capitalize. This is the type of game that could possibly be a big blowout for WKU, or if the Tops don’t break their will early, they could be in for a long night.

Don’t Let Pinkney Get Out of Last Week’s Funk

Seth Pinkney is another big bodied Conference USA Center. I don’t ever remember so many starting 7-footers in C-USA. But he has been pretty awful since playing WKU. He has not scored a point, and he’s only pulled down four total rebounds. WKU gave up a season high ten points to Pinkney. He was an absolute factor down low. I would assume WKU will try to minimize this issue in the second go-round.

Expect Tevin Brewer to Be Much Better

Tevin Brewer had his worst game of the season against MTSU, only scoring five points on 12 shots. He had a season low for just about everything last game, so always expect great players (averages 15 points, 5.8 assists/game) to bounce back from a horrible night. I would give him a hard time, but don’t be discouraged if he’s just due. Make his life difficult and see if someone else can help score enough points. FAU has depth but does not have consistent depth. If you stop the best player, you’re likely to beat an inferior team.

Get Three of Josh, Jairus, Cam, and Luke Back on Track

WKU can’t function if everyone is having a bad game. The only players that were decent were Dayvion McKnight and Jamarion Sharp. Everyone else had one of their worst games of the season, and tons of new lows were set on the entire stat sheet. Each player struggled to do something they are usually good at during the game against UNT. So a key for me is just for everyone to not be awful. If they’re struggling, get them the ball and try to get an easy bucket to get them going. Jairus Hamilton needs way more volume than he had against UNT. He only took seven shots and grabbed four boards against the Mean Green. There’s no way he should have struggled like that. The Tops need the players they do have to contribute every single night. They can’t be awful.

Dayvion McKnight Needs Four Turnovers or Less

McKnight has been much better of late taking care of the ball. One of the few exceptions to that statement was the FIU game, when he turned the ball over five times. McKnight has had some doozies this year, turning it over at least five times in six different games. But he hasn’t had a game of more than five turnovers since late November. If Dayvion can keep the turnovers down, WKU gets even more opportunities to be efficient. And with his incredible ability to distribute, he could be an absolute nightmare for opposing defenses if he can avoid giving them the ball on unforced errors, especially of the “live ball” variety. With Dayvion averaging 6.5 assists per game, if he could just average three or less mistakes, he would be unstoppable. It seems crazy to say he can have up to four turnovers and be fine, but WKU is so used to him coughing it up a few times that he doesn’t have to improve by much to be an exponentially better offensive force.

Prediction at FIU

I think Western is clearly the better team here, but just like FAU, I’m not a huge fan of the matchup. WKU also has had random struggles with FIU in the past. I think that can be because FIU usually has good athletes with length year in and year out. That can create a headache for a team that is generally superior athletically to most opponents. That advantage is negated and you often rely on it to win. But FIU has the size and three point shooting ability to hang around. They average 72, but before last week, FIU was averaging in the mid-70s in scoring. So unless something has happened significantly to change the makeup of this team, the Golden Panthers can still score and can also hang with a team like WKU. Keep in mind, WKU had to play great to cruise against FIU. Imagine if WKU hadn’t made ten threes and hadn’t shot 50% from the field. FIU could’ve easily been in it from there or even won.

I cautiously think and hope WKU will get it done and sweep this week, because these two games should be automatic wins if WKU is going to establish itself as the team to beat in the East. If WKU struggles, maybe Western isn’t as good as everyone thinks they are.

But I think the Tops take care of business. FIU is in a little bit of a funk and chances are they won’t play as well as they did against Western the first time. I also don’t think Western will play as well, either, though. I think this one might be a slog and fairly close.

WKU 67-FIU 61.