WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory in "The islands that time forgot"

What Does WKU Need to Do Win the Cayman Islands Classic?

In postgame interviews, Rick Stansbury said he’s had his swim trunks pulled out for months. “Y’all know how I am.” As the Tops head to “the islands that time forgot” over the weekend, WKU fans will have a lot of different thoughts running through their head, and hopefully it mostly won’t include Rick Stansbury with his shirt off. WKU Football peed the bed against Auburn. WKU Volleyball wins its fourth straight conference title. Heck, the Lady Tops play at home Monday night. There’s just a lot going on.

On top of it all, perhaps the freshest most non-already over with, exciting news is Western Kentucky Basketball is 3-0 for the first time since 2019-2020 and only the second time in the Rick Stansbury era. WKU usually plays these holiday tournament extremely early in the season, and it’s really very difficult to amass a significant winning streak early in the season. Yet they’ve done it so far in 2022-23.

This season, WKU did start with a tough one at Eastern Kentucky, which ended up being a come-from-behind game of runs in which WKU suffocated the Colonels late in the game, coming from behind and outscoring the Colonels 32-18 in the final 17 minutes of the game.

After that, it was relatively cupcake city, although the University of Indianapolis gave WKU much more of a fight with a 68-50 result. Kentucky State, however, succumbed to WKU’s immense talent in a shocking scoreline, 127-61, displaying WKU’s incredible potential to score.

The Field

WKU has shown it could win in multiple ways already this season, but the competition steps up massively against Akron Monday. Akron is the reigning MAC champion and was picked to finish third overall this season.

Akron is 2-1 on the season, falling to Mississippi State by nearly 20 and beating a couple of mid-majors by single digits. Judging by the slim body of work, WKU should probably be the slight favorite, and the Tops will probably be some kind of mid-single digit favorite to win in their opener in the Cayman Islands Classic.

After that, it’s either LSU or Illinois State. Illinois State is 2-2 with a couple of “bad” losses already, so 3-0 LSU would presumably meet WKU in the winners bracket semifinal game. For any kind of schedule strength, or an opportunity to get a quality win, WKU really needs to play and beat some good teams in this tournament.

On the other side, Rhode Island seems the clearly inferior squad, already losing two games. The other three are undefeated with multiple impressive performances, so perhaps with the easier road, Nevada, who plays Rhode Island first, may be the mathematical favorite to make it to the finals. However, one would think Kansas State is the most likely representative from the other side of the bracket, simply being the “Power” team. Nevada may seem the pretty name of the group, but Nevada was also picked to finish eighth in the Mountain West, so perhaps the 4-0 record is just fool’s gold, much like a—ahem—WKU’s unblemished record could easily be perceived.

So what does WKU need to do to get it done in the tropics to come home to a happy turkey day break?

Keys to Victory

Get the First One

Honestly, you can’t win the tournament without winning the first game. As cheesy as that sounds, think about it. It’s a weird environment in an incredibly small gym with different rims than you’re probably used to shooting on. Very rarely do those kind of “makeshift” feel basketball courts have rims that seem to make sense. I refer to them as “carnival rims”. They just bounce weirdly and everybody seems to have an adjustment period. Akron is a quality basketball team that, even though they were picked third in the MAC, they’re thinking they’re the best team in this tournament and certainly the best team in the MAC and they’re looking to prove both this week. WKU needs to come in and dive all over the floor and put everything they’ve got into each moment. The way you win three games in three days (hopefully we have this conversation in March again) is by setting yourself up energy-wise in days one and two. If you can play easier games or play your depth and still win, that’s a huge advantage over a team that plays six players. But regardless of energy management, the main thing against Akron is just win, and if you get the opportunity, pull away and cruise.

The Platoon Game

The key in a tournament that is crammed into a few days’ time is depth. I think energy management is more important than anything else. Even if you put your walk-ons in for five minutes a game, it’s worth it if you can still win. WKU is fortunate enough to be able to easily go 11 deep, and they could probably go 13 deep if they really had to with Noah Stansbury and Elijah Hughey as the 12th and 13th men. So far, WKU has pretty much used a “platoon” system with the five starters being subbed out for for five other players. If a big gets in foul trouble, Darius Miles is a trusted alternative big man. Here’s my question: The platoon concept has worked, and it’s pretty unique in upper level college basketball. What if you just use this idea until it doesn’t work anymore? The two units are incredibly evenly balanced, and there is a ton of potential in the second group to be an offensive explosion. Then the starters can come back in and be more solid on both ends. If Rick Stansbury abandons the platoon, how does he use his bench? Because I think we all would agree there is no reason not to play at least eight players for 15+ per game every game this season without exception.

All-Out

From observing a lot of Sun Belt (and C-USA) conference tournament games in person, and even a few NCAA Tournament games, the way you win in tournaments is by giving your everything. The teams that screw up are the ones that fall asleep. You never know who’s going to show up, and with a shorter time to prepare, it’s way more about random matchups and in-game adjustments. WKU won four games after coming from behind by 10+ points in four games in 2012. Then they did it again against Mississippi Valley State in the NCAA Tournament and tried to do it on eventual national champion Kentucky in the Round of 64. What should we learn from that? First of all, don’t dig a hole by not playing hard or being engaged, but secondly, stay steady and play 40 minutes. The Ray Harper teams did not have the talent this team has, and it’s not even close. But what those teams did have was guts. They were an incredible group of random, somewhat ragtag type of players, undersized for the most part, and streaky. Regardless of the qualms and frustrations of Ray Harper, once he got in a tournament setting, he knew how to manage his team during the game, he knew how to get them to focus, and he knew how to manage the bigger picture without distracting them from just doing their job.

Don’t get me wrong: I don’t worship at the feet of the almighty Ray Harper. However, it’s just a good example of managing less to gain more. WKU needs to be all-in for 120 minutes (or more) in the Caymans, or they will drop one or two games. Western may be the most talented team in the Cayman Islands, but they are not quite proven to be the best team just yet. The way they can get there quickly is to play like they have for two-and-a-half games: All-out.

Dayvion, the Distributor

WKU’s most prolific player, Dayvion McKnight, is still struggling to make consistently good decisions. He fills up the stat sheet, good and bad sometimes. If Dayvion could learn to make the best decision and not rely on himself most of the time, he would become the indisputably best player in Conference USA. He may end up being that anyway. McKnight turns the ball over several times per game, and it’s something that has dragged down his overall production in his still relatively young WKU career. If WKU is going to reach its full potential, Dayvion needs to get near his full potential sooner rather than later. Davy is one of those players that could average a 3-or-4-to-1 assist to turnover ratio. He’s done it with ease a few times in individual games, but he also has some games where he’ll just turn it over six or seven times, or he’ll go 5-for-16 with 15 points when he probably should have distributed the ball three or four more times. Let’s see Dayvion be the point guard he could be this week.

Seize the Opportunity

Too many times in the Rick Stansbury era, and frankly the recent WKU past overall, Western will find some way to put themselves in it but not seal the deal. And that is not a shot at Rick Stansbury. I’m thinking of the Auburn loss Saturday. I’m thinking of past opportunities in multiple sports where WKU held a lead and blew it. And yes, I am also thinking of the several opportunities Stansbury himself has had to win some kind of title (preseason or postseason) and the Tops just haven’t quite sealed the deal.

WKU will have an opportunity to right some wrongs this week. There’s no reason WKU couldn’t win the Cayman Islands Classic. It’s very possible these could be three very close games. I think if that’s the case, WKU is probably not the ultimate champion. Regardless, if that ends up being WKU’s very best effort, take advantage of the big moments and execute. If you don’t play your best, find a way to win. If you play your best and find yourself up 15, win by 20 and get some rest, versus letting the lead melt and having to fight at the end of the game.

Ultimately, it’s down to the coconuts. Who has the guts to get it done in the Caymans?