WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs. Louisville

What should be a sellout, a rare Power 5 in-state opponent comes to Diddle. How does WKU take the Cards out?

Credit: Bowling Green Daily News | Miranda Pederson

These are the moments Rick Stansbury’s teams excel in. It’s an early season battle against a Power 5 team, and the Tops are clearly coming together as a unit. Early on, the team looked a mess, but obviously at times, they were missing at least three of five key pieces. Frankly, that five could end up being the starting lineup at the end of the season, or certainly a lineup that sees the floor together fairly often.

Now everybody is healthy that is eligible and ready to play, and “only” two more remain to possibly join the team: Cincinnati transfer (FREE HIM!!!) Keith Williams and local Kentucky sensation Zion Harmon, who is a complete and utter mystery to anyone not directly in the program.

But WKU is moving on without those two, hoping to have some help down the road, and they’re looking good doing it. Western Kentucky is 7-4 overall and has basically beaten the teams it should have and lost to those that probably should have been a loss. The lone exception to that theory would be completely blowing out Ole Miss on a neutral court the day after tornados ravaged much of Bowling Green and western Kentucky. Perhaps the Tops caught lightning in a bottle, motivated beyond belief and spurned on by the return of Josh Anderson from COVID protocol.

Regardless, WKU seems to be coming together. In what feels the biggest (and certainly the most historically important) test of the year, the Louisville Cardinals come into the (hopefully) hostile confines of Diddle Arena in hopes of notching what will probably be a semi-quality road win for them. Certainly Cardinal Nation will be expecting a routine win against a “lesser” in-state rival.

The importance to WKU cannot be understated, though. Western is 42-39 all-time vs. Louisville, but the Tops have not won the past nine meetings, all of which have happened in the past 11 seasons. Credit to Louisville, who has not shied away from the Tops since 2008.

The hardcore Western fan, the pedestrian UofL/WKU hybrid, and a general state of Kentucky basketball fan is at minimum interested in this game. Pure Louisville fans themselves may sort of respect Western for its history, but they’re probably going to be expecting a win. And rightfully so with a 12-2 record. In my opinion, and judging by precedent of the atmospheres in Diddle the last time Louisville came to WKU (2014), average hardcore WKU is bringing his or her best, most fired-up self to the game Saturday. So be ready to see Diddle rockin’ when the Cardinals come a-knockin’.

With the emotion that should be under the roof of Diddle Arena, what about the teams? WKU is seeming like a team that is coming together that may be pretty good to really good by the end of the season, while UofL seems to be a more average than normal version of a perennial Final Four contender. Chris Mack has done a decent job with Louisville, but losing to Furman and DePaul early in the season certainly has Louisville fans starting to grumble. Losing to WKU in addition to those other losses would really get Cardinal Nation in a tizzy.

So what does WKU need to do to get the W Saturday in Diddle?

Do It for BG

Let the emotion of the past few weeks motivate you. If the Tops aren’t motivated to do it for this city, do they have a pulse? So far, WKU has looked sharp since the tornado. Let’s not make it more than what it needs to be, but the Tops should be plenty motivated. Really, what’s the point? Just play hard. Have fun. Whatever motivates the Tops, pull it out for this game. It means a lot for all kinds of things, but one of them would certainly be bringing this community together.

Ride the Wave

Diddle will be rocking. If you can’t feel that, again, where’s your pulse? A rocking Diddle is more powerful than most home venues in the country. Get the fans excited, dive all over the floor, jump on the sideline desk, and ask for more noise. Everyone wants to see a battle, or they want to see Louisville get slaughtered. So give it to them. Fight your guts out, and if you lose, everyone will still remember it. Use the crowd for fuel.

Play Stansbury Ball

Stansbury ball is interior defense and driving the ball for fouls offensively. U of L does not shoot the three well, and defensively, they guard the three well. So get inside and draw some fouls with your size (Jamarion Sharp) and your skill (Jairus Hamilton). And get your slasher (Dayvion McKnight) to the rim. Seemingly as McKnight goes, so does WKU this season. Stansbury ball should work for this matchup. If you make more free throws than an opponent takes, that’s a huge win against a physical, defensive minded Power Five opponent.

Hand Down, Man Down

Just because Louisville doesn’t shoot the three well doesn’t mean you don’t defend it. Far too often, WKU is caught staring at an opponent taking a three. Get in his face and make his life difficult as best you can. Allowing a team to get in rhythm when they normally don’t spells trouble for your chances as the underdog.

Crash the Offensive Boards

One thing Louisville does really well is crash the boards as a team. WKU is generally positive in that department is well. The main thing here is don’t get utterly dominated on the boards. More importantly, the Tops need to create extra possessions for once. WKU is getting outrebounded on the offensive boards by several per game. Defensively, WKU clears the glass pretty well. Most alarmingly, offensive boards are generally an indicator of hustle. And WKU, especially early this season, showed signs of a team that could fall asleep in the hustle department. A lot of these keys have to do with hustle. If WKU takes care of the effort, this is a very winnable game.

Prediction

I haven’t seen Louisville play this year, but I know there’s plenty of talent. WKU is talented, too. And the roster is experienced. Louisville feels like a team that could come together later in the season. They have not shown their prettiest performance thus far. That could easily come against WKU if the Tops just don’t show up.

But for whatever reason, WKU usually shows up in big regular season non-conference games under Rick Stansbury. That has never been the issue, so picking a WKU win in Diddle would not be a ridiculous pick.

I also look at this matchup, and I think about what WKU is good at vs. what Louisville does well. WKU’s defense overall has been stellar. Their numbers are highly skewed because two Division III schools were blasted by the Tops. But the point still remains that WKU is probably not going to allow its opponents to shoot 40 percent most games. Louisville also does not shoot the three well, so unless they have an offensive explosion, Louisville is going to have to hold a WKU team that can score with multiple weapons down to a pretty bad offensive game.

If WKU is motivated and focused, this feels like a coin flip, and maybe WKU could win in Diddle a small majority of the time. I just think the Tops are going to be motivated, focused, and the crowd is going to be wild. I can’t wait to see what happens in this game, and this is not a very confident pick, because I’m still not convinced this team is fully engaged and firing on all cylinders.

However, I say this is the game that the Tops convince even more that this team is going to be a serious out later in the year in C-USA. And if WKU is fortunate enough to make it to the NCAA Tournament, they would be scary for anyone without a couple of additions later.

I think both teams are capable of firing on all cylinders and winning. But I’ve got WKU getting it done. I say WKU 71-UofL 66.