WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs. ODU

Western could end up where it felt it belonged by the end of the week: In the top two seeds in the C-USA East Division. How do they get it done?

Who in the world saw this coming? Honestly, WKU looked like a historically bad train wreck. Western had an overall losing record, including two cushion games against Division III schools. But they also had two Power Five wins (which are now proving to be absolute trash, but still), and the Tops had shown massive improvement heading into C-USA, and even into C-USA play, sitting at 2-1 heading in to a tough stretch of games.

Western Kentucky then proceeded to lose five game in a row, all of a sudden dropping from 2-1 to 2-6, something that hadn’t been done in Rick Stansbury’s tenure as head coach and something hasn’t happened at WKU since Y2K more than twice.

Then all of a sudden, humble pie and some habitual spankings finally woke up the Tops, who would go on the road and start what now has become a six game winning streak. WKU already beat the team that started the streak, Charlotte. Now they get number two, who is likely singularly focused on revenge. Seeing as WKU beat Old Dominion by 17, something that just doesn’t happen to Jeff Jones coached teams, they should be pretty frustrated. And also, they should be freshly pissed, after losing to Marshall on the road Thursday. And to make matters worse, they showed they’re good enough to beat a good team by beating UAB last Saturday.

So I would say this game absolutely screams “upset alert” if any game ever did. WKU is in the final game of five in a stretch of ten days. With a rotation of 6.1 players, they have to be mentally and physically exhausted. And ODU is freshly pissed and double pissed that they lost to Marshall. Without that loss, ODU would have been tied with Charlotte and with a win at WKU would climb to within one game of third place. Now they’re in with a chance to actually drop to the dreaded sixth or possibly seventh position if the wheels really come off. It was an absolute nightmare loss for them Thursday, but they’ll come in focused, one would think.

So I really, really think this could be a game WKU really has to battle just to find a way to get it done. If WKU has any chance to play some bench players, that would be a miracle. But this is also the last game for a week, so plow ahead and let’s get this W and then rest up for the final stretch.

With that being said, what does Western need to do to dethrone the Monarchs?

Keys to Victory

Pretend it’s the District Championship in High School

What you can’t do in conference play is lose at home. WKU already did that against UNT and Middle, and look what it did to their chances. It nearly derailed them. Thank God this last game is at Diddle, because maybe the crowd will be able to help the Tops through what could easily be a lack of energy or mental weariness. It’s hard to have been bearing all of this weight of trying to claw back in for almost half of conference play thus far. So let’s focus on defending Diddle. For me, the theme is “empty the tank tonight”. You have a whole week to rest. This isn’t football. That’s plenty of time to come out against Middle completely fresh. So yeah, if the Tops get a chance to play some bench players, let them. I hope that happens. But now that it’s game five of five, the energy thing is not as big of a concern as long as they can physically handle the load of this fifth game. So empty the tank. Defend your honor. Don’t you dare lose to this team after all the work you’ve put in. This is the championship game of this portion of the bracket. This is the district championship, kids. When we play Middle, we get into region championships. We’ll cross that bridge. For now, let’s win this district championship and celebrate tonight, boys.

Don’t Expect Jeff Jones to Make the Same Mistakes

I think last game, Jeff Jones made some mistakes. I think he tried to match up against the Tops, and to mirror the Tops, you just don’t play many players and go with your best players. That is not his strength as a coach, and it’s not his roster’s strength. There isn’t a collection of massive superstar talent like WKU is boasting. There’s talent, but the strength is playing tough defense and plugging in bodies that can just keep coming with intensity. I would be absolutely shocked if he plays his 7th through 9th men a total of 12 minutes. He generally goes nine deep in 2021-22 if he has the bodies. That’s one mistake.

Another, in my opinion, is not forcing WKU to make mistakes. Unfortunately for WKU right now, the mistakes are probably not going to come shooting, although Jeff Jones may decide on dying on that sword and hope WKU just goes cold from three. Stranger things have happened. But that’s not a high percentage play considering how well WKU is shooting (first in shooting in and outside of the arc in C-USA of late). WKU averages 48% from the floor. You know what I would do? Junk it up. Make WKU second guess itself. Surprise them with some weird defensive looks. And you obviously struggled to stop Jamarion Sharp, so be prepared for the 2-3 with the lo-hi post and run pick-and-roll against man-to-man and draw him out of the paint. But WKU only committed six turnovers and made 12-of-28 from three. So make a choice. I think ODU has the horses to get up in Luke Frampton and Cam Justice’s faces. Make someone else beat you. Make them drive to score.

Pound It

Do not fall in love with the three. WKU got lucky against ODU last time. they made 12 threes and took over half of their shots from behind the arc. That is an absolutely horrendous idea to try again. I guarantee you ODU will either bait WKU into open threes out of system, or they will cram the three point line with defenders and force WKU to drive. I will be surprised if Jeff Jones just tries exactly what he did last time. I believe Jeff is a conservative basketball coach, so I expect him to protect the paint first and deal with the threes if they fall. I think he’ll tell his guys to body the big men, maybe front Jairus Hamilton and guard stay between the goal and Jamarion Sharp. So ultimately I think Rick Stansbury is going to be dealt a much more difficult hand this game and ODU is going to make some adjustments. I really, sincerely think WKU needs to concentrate on being aggressive and driving to the hole this game. Two reasons: They’ll likely be pretty tired with five games in ten days (so shooting outside will be less effective), and in my opinion, they need to shoot more free throws than the 12 they shot against ODU last time.

Rebound Better

This has been a disturbing trend of late. For one thing, it’s WKU’s fault. The more shots Western makes, the less rebounds are to be had. However, Western has still been absolutely dominated on the boards of late. And ODU beat WKU by five last time. The more WKU gives up on the glass, the more margin the Tops give away and the better they need to be offensively. WKU has shot no worse than 47% in the month of February. They’re due to have an average to below average shooting night at some point, and that’s where the depth concerns start creeping in, along with turnovers and rebounds. WKU was absolute perfection in everything but rebounding against Charlotte. Well, what happens if WKU turns it over a few times this game? What if they shoot low 40s, or can’t buy a three for 35 minutes of the game? WKU needs to create more margin for itself by crashing the boards and getting three or four more rebounds per game. That would make a massive difference and could be the difference between winning and losing going forward.

No Bad Games

With only six players that really get any real minutes, you can’t have more than two of the six not producing well into double digits. It’s especially crippling if one or more of them just has an awful game. With those guys gobbling up over 33 minutes per game on average across the six of them, if someone is on the court that long and just plain awful, it’s really detrimental to the Tops’ chances. In the games that WKU has lost, teams have taken away at least two players from being significant factors. Against ODU, none of the six had bad games, so consequently, WKU won very easily. Against USM, Josh Anderson and Jairus Hamilton were not their best. Heck, Luke Frampton only had one rebound, something very unusual for him. So how did WKU struggle against USM? Two or three guys had bad games. Against UTSA, Frampton, McKnight, and Justice were all below their normal. Against FAU, a better team, WKU had only one struggle of the six in Luke Frampton. If we break down these games, it really comes down to each guy playing well. If every one of them is great, WKU is virtually unbeatable. If several of them are just a little off, all of a sudden, the other team is in with a chance.

Prediction

Western is rolling. I think I would be pretty negative to pick an outright loss by the Tops, but I’m tempted because I want to be as fair and honest as possible. WKU is favored by 8.5 over ODU, so that’s not much for a home game. What that tells me is Vegas thinks this game could be pretty close, especially if it was on a neutral court.

While I’m not going to pick a loss, I will cautiously tell whoever will listen: WKU could easily lose this game. This would be a typical loss. You’ve won six in a row. Odds are you lose at least one of your last ten games. You’re on short days’ rest with a short bench. Your opponent is double to triple motivated because of revenge, losing Thursday, and being desperate to protect its spot in the standings.

So WKU should expect a really tough fight on its hands. I’ll be honest about this Old Dominion team. I believe they are way more hot and cold and lacking chemistry than any other Jeff Jones team he as ever coached. So they’re dangerous, but frankly WKU should win at home over 80% of the time against a team that’s not very good like an ODU with a losing record.

But WKU better pay attention, be focused, and expect the unexpected. And for God’s sakes play with everything you’ve got. This game could literally put you in the absolute driver’s seat in C-USA. In a close game, Jeff Jones probably edges Rick Stansbury in terms of coaching impact during the game. Rick is good at other things, like attracting talent and he’s a good game planner. But it’s another matter when talking in-game adjustments and in-game management decisions. It’s one thing if WKU is just violently dominant and it’s just going to be over no matter what. But if it’s a close game, watch out for ODU’s coaching to put them in position to steal one.

I’ve got Western pulling it out, but I fully expect a war. WKU 72-ODU 68.