WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs. Charlotte

A couple of quick notes on the how the Tops extend the streak to six against the 49ers

This one’s going to be a little quicker and less deep, but I want to get something put out there for y’all to chew on. We were sick last week, I’m playing catch-up, and my phone is ringing off the hook! Good problems to have, but it’s hard to squeeze in article time.

But to be quick, obviously we have two different teams on two different paths here. WKU was in sixth place five games ago. Charlotte was in first for a little bit and has slowly dropped back to fourth. They haven’t been awful, but they’ve just lost some games they probably should have.

But Western better come in focused, because this is a dangerous team. They’re not mega talented, which is one serious reason why WKU was able to beat Charlotte pretty easily: WKU is probably just better most nights regardless.

We all know WKU is talented. There’s no doubt. Size. Athleticism. Power Five talent. Four star talent with experience. Multiple KY Mr. Basketballs. You know the drill.

But Charlotte’s got some players, too.

Jahmir Young gets 20 nearly half the time. Austin Butler leads them in rebounding. Aly Khalifa gets nearly four assists per game. So they have some different players that contribute and they can go deep into the bench.

So let’s get into it….

Keys to Victory

Slow down Jahmir

Last game, Young had 17, so basically his average. But he needed 15 shots. He only had three rebounds, only three assists, only one steal, and had three turnovers. He got his, but he had to work. Charlotte doesn’t have a significant second man that will drop 25 barring a complete anomaly, so if you stop the main guy and Charlotte beats you, shake their hand and move on. I’d die on that Hill for sure. Make this guy work. You obviously still need to guard other people and play hard on everybody, but he gets the attention from my scouting and defensive shading.

Deal with the Depth

Charlotte is deeper than WKU. That means fresh bodies and more people to scout. And it means each player has to do less for the team to win. So two things: Whoever you play, especially if it’s only six players, needs to be at minimum decent. If it’s truly only six (or Cozart or Brashear play 2-6 minutes combined), then you’re going to need 4 of your 6 to play really well. Second, don’t let any of them go wild for way more than their normal. If you handle the depth, that’s the other major threat to the Tops from Charlotte.

Don’t Let Last Game Affect This Game

Just because you beat them handily on the road doesn’t mean you win by 35 at home. That would be nice, but don’t assume. This team is going to be extra motivated (see below). They’re in the thick of the battle, too. Just because it was easy last time means nothing now. They probably feel they played as bad as they could to lose by nearly 20 at home. I think understanding perspective in sports is huge. How do you run into a buzzsaw? Underestimate a motivated, competent opponent and have some bad luck. You can’t control bad luck, but expect Gonzaga and hope for Lamar. Play your hardest and best.

Understand Charlotte’s Focus

Charlotte is going to be motivated. This is revenge for them. So you better be ready for their best shot. Jahmir Young probably feels like he let his team down, shooting way below his average and not doing anything special last time. Also, Charlotte is a half a game behind you in the standings! To them, this is a battle for a higher seed. They lose this and they’re probably not finishing ahead of you because of tiebreakers. So make this game about a battle for supremacy. Turn this game into the Super Bowl into the locker room. This is about a championship, and you get one step closer by eliminating this team.

Play Hard and Try to Get Some Rest

First of all, no excuses. Get it done, whether it’s with six, seven, or eight. If you choose six, they still need to play as hard as the other team. And if they can’t, you need to play more players. Dive five all over the floor. Chase the rebounds. Don’t assume. Stop watching the ball roll out of bounds and grab it instead, because you don’t know what the refs saw and you don’t know what the other team is going to do flip that possession because you’ve been trained to let a tough ball roll out of bounds. Box out. Secondly, try to find rest somewhere for somebody, both to last until the end of the game, and to last until the end of the season. Come on, Tops. This rotation of six just cannot hold up barring a true hallelujah miracle. Everything will have land perfectly, meaning no injuries, no foul trouble, and no bad games. Let’s not rely on miracles. They’re good, but 11 losses says they’re not perfect.

Prediction

Precedent from this team says to expect disappointment. Western has looked to have finally “gotten it all together” a few times. I really feel like this team has gotten it together as far as rolling with what they’ve got. I believe they need to play with more intensity play in and play out. The effort is there. The intensity? It can wane.

But I still feel like WKU is now at a point that it is head and shoulders better than just about everyone in C-USA. Western has had a few of these five games where they didn’t play great in certain areas and still just out-executed some teams. USM scored 77, something they had done to only two Division I schools all season, one of which is yet to win a game (Lamar). WKU just powered past them with 87 points, although the Golden Eagles outrebounded WKU by 11. That’s absolutely astounding production for the lack of opportunity. UTSA had its center go off for a double-double and a career high and still lost relatively routinely. Charlotte and Old Dominion didn’t play awful basketball but just lost by nearly 20. FAU just ran into a WKU buzzsaw after taking a marginal early lead. WKU really controlled that game, and that’s one of the top teams in the conference.

So my long-winded point is Western is either going to need to really screw up, or they are just going to have to get beaten outright by a better team. Or both. Well, other than Jahmir Young, I don’t see enough elite talent on Charlotte to just be truly better. They can always have a great night. WKU is not invincible. But WKU does have an elite offense. This is one of the better offensive teams under Rick Stansbury. No other team in C-USA truly has six players that are averaging close to or above ten points with all six truly capable of superstar type games. Other teams have several contributors that averaging a range of, say 6-15 points per game, sure. But those players don’t have the top end ability across the board. Some do, but not every single one of them.

The next question is whether WKU will absolutely just mess everything up and find a way to lose. Or if they will digress back to the wishy washy effort issues and lack of consistency. Other than pure digression, Western is going to have a bad game and Charlotte (or anyone) is going to have to play well. That can happen, but I don’t see it happening.

The reasoning is pretty simple: Defense.

Charlotte’s defense is suspect. Can they play defense? Yes. But they can also get blasted. They give up over 70 per game but barely score 70. And they do not rebound well. That’s not a great formula for consistent success. Blowouts tend to mar the truth a little, so account for that. But overall statistics display tendencies. Charlotte tends to give up too many points, and they don’t score enough. Opponents shoot 46 percent overall and 36 percent from deep. What are Western’s strengths? Shooting and defense.

I think it’s a bad matchup for Charlotte just about every time against WKU. Talent-wise, WKU wins there. And again, it’s not a shot at Charlotte’s talent but more just being honest about WKU’s insane embarrassment of riches in that department.

What Charlotte makes up for in lack of elite athleticism, they make up for with one great player (Jahmir Young), togetherness, and really good situational coaching. They win some close games (7-2 in games decided by nine or less) but lose sometimes by 20 or more.

So watch out for a close game. If WKU allows this game to be really close, watch for Rick Stansbury to get outmaneuvered. He’s notoriously average in crucial moments. He’s a good coach in many ways, but a weakness is always situational management for him. Well, Charlotte is very good at it this year.

But I’ve got WKU winning big again. I believe they’ll struggle a little more than they did on the East Coast, but I still like the Tops to win by double digits.

Let’s say WKU 81-Charlotte 70.