WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs. FIU

How WKU gets in the win column in game #2 of C-USA play

Well, COVID has reared its ugly head once again. It hadn’t really affected WKU’s season much until this past Thursday, except for a cancellation by, ironically, the team that was set to play Kentucky that Western had just played, Louisville, that allowed WKU to actually play the Cats in an impromptu replacement game in Rupp a few days before Christmas.

But plenty of games were cancelled around the country, and the “Wild West”, scramble-to-find-something-to-do mentality is once again normal in college basketball this year.

WKU’s first conference game against Southern Miss was canceled due to COVID issues in the USM program. But hold on, before you bad mouth the Golden Eagles for not social distancing, nearly half (6-of-13 games) of C-USA’s opening week was canceled.

Without a glorified warmup, the Hilltoppers had to jump straight into a matchup between two of the better teams in C-USA. But it went surprisingly well for 39.92 minutes. Western’s second one against La Tech was a game WKU controlled from the tip, leading by as many as 17…and lost by one with five seconds left. Kenneth Lofton, Jr., is a beast.

Granted, WKU should not have melted that lead down, but La Tech hit just about everything in the second half. Bad luck play after bad luck play and La Tech executing in all of the big moments led to a swing of 18 points in 16 minutes, and even worse, 13 points in four minutes.

It is what it is, but where does that leave WKU after week one? Well, for one thing, it leaves WKU winless, something almost no one would have predicted, regardless of the nearly guaranteed victory against USM.

WKU’s opponent Saturday, FIU, had a close encounter with perennial contender Old Dominion, ultimately losing by five. However, ODU has had a struggle in their non-conference schedule. So who knows if the five point defeat was a bad loss or a quality performance against a team better than its record?

So it begs the questions: Are either of these teams true contenders for C-USA? FIU has a nice record at 10-4, but is ODU a decent team? Have they played anybody at all? (No!) WKU has had some moments and looked like a great team at times. Then again, they’ve had some horrific moments, as well, especially early on.

For both, the obvious next step is winning the next conference game and not starting out early with two losses. Traditionally, to get a double bye as a top four seed, teams will probably only be able to stand six or so losses. With COVID, who knows how many games will actually be played? Starting out 0-2 is not the way to position yourself early. It’s not a death sentence, but you better have the gas to be great the rest of the season.

So what are the Keys to Victory for WKU to beat FIU?

Keys to Victory

Bench Play

Josh Anderson, for some reason, hasn’t “earned” a spot in the starting lineup yet. He’s only playing a shade over 20 minutes per game lately. Is this a stamina issue or some ridiculous belief by Rick Stansbury? Anyway, WKU is now playing a true six man rotation. Jaylen Butz played for about a minute and picked up three fouls last game, and Sherman Brashear played three minutes and hit a three. Rick has to have maximum production from six players without injury, or he’s going to have to play someone to eat up some minutes and spread out the pressure on the top six. You can’t ask six guys to average 13 points apiece. Not everyone can score like that on a consistent basis. WKU’s horses actually could probably pull that off, but that’s just really a lot of pressure on so many people. It’s a house of cards. Mark my words: WKU will not win a championship playing six players.

Jamarion Sharp Needs to Get His Averages

Against a good team—which I believe FIU to be between a 3 to 7 seed this season depending on performance—you need impactful players to make an impact. 7’5” Jamarion Sharp may have been hobbled against La Tech, but imagine if he had just contributed a few buckets more in that game. WKU lost by one and truly controlled it from tip to five seconds left. If WKU had either been intentional about getting him the ball or if he had found a few buckets on the offensive glass, WKU would be 1-0 right now. Get him going and be intentional about it. He didn’t have a great game in any way last time out.

Make Denver Jones and Tevin Brewer Work

These guys don’t shoot a high field goal percentage (40+%), but every other statistical category that a guard would be expected to contribute in is littered with excellence from these two. What makes a college basketball team dangerous? Good guard play. These guys both have 2-to-1 or better assist-to-turnover ratios on the season, both are decent to great shooters outside, and both shoot excellent free throws. For guards, they both rebound enough to get the job done. They’re the two leading scorers for FIU. Make these guys’ lives miserable and it’s hard to see FIU overcoming a bad night from either one of them against WKU.

Don’t Let Seth Pinkney Wreak Havoc

Seth Pinkney is a legitimate 7-footer (7’1”), so he can hang with Sharp down low. He may get a block or two. He shoots about 70% from the field. He only plays 18 minutes per game but starts. However, when he’s in there, he makes in impact. Watch out for this guy, because besides Sharp, WKU doesn’t have anyone that can match up with this guy.

Jairus Hamilton Can’t Be Awful

Jairus Hamilton was a disaster against La Tech. He clearly struggled against La Tech’s girth underneath. And LT also had the quickness to keep him from attacking the hole. And the man was just off. Shake it off, big dawg. Get back to work, because FIU always has good, long athletes and the Tops need your athleticism and scoring ability. More turnovers than points is a bad game for anyone, but especially the leading scorer on the team.

Prediction

I sincerely hope Rick Stansbury plays Sherman Brashear some this game. Let Butz get back in there if he’s not some kind of drama queen or something behind the scenes. If he is, then keep teaching him a lesson. But why not play your son? Why not steal a few minutes with someone else in there? You cannot alienate these players heading into conference play. It looks like Zion Harmon is not going to play this season. Keith Williams still sits out. But you cannot put all of the burden of this season on six men from December to March, one of them being a 7’5” string bean that has never played this amount of minutes before in his life. They will ultimately fail.

But in the short term, I believe WKU should be ok against FIU. This is a game WKU wins 80 percent of the time at home at least. Western has the size to handle another legitimate seven footer. FIU doesn’t shoot a great percentage from the floor, and they don’t draw fouls. WKU shoots well and draws fouls.

WKU has a ton of top level weapons. FIU has a few really good players and a bunch of decent ones. And also, let’s not play like WKU shouldn’t be the better team regardless. Just because FIU is 10-4, that schedule was soft as butter after a few seconds in the microwave. ESPN gives WKU over an 85% chance to win according to their BPI.

That means nothing with a season still young and not filled in with significant common opponent data. However, it’s enough to know that WKU is expected to win this game five out of six times.

WKU should be awake from that frustrating meltdown against La Tech. Surely, they’ll be motivated and sharp. A loss by WKU would be shocking, given the consistency with which they have dominated C-USA in general. To start 0-2 in C-USA play would be the first time since Ray Harper’s last season in 2015-16.

C-USA is solid from top to bottom this season. WKU and FIU both cannot afford to start out in a hole against two of the better teams in C-USA.

Fortunately, I see WKU coming back to Diddle with some rest and a regroup and taking care of business. I’m not sure if I think they’ll mess around and win by three or if they’ll blow FIU out by 15+. This team is really subject to individual performance this season because of lack of depth.

But I think I’ll predict WKU to take care of business and make a nice bounce back statement and win easily. I’ve got WKU: 81, FIU: 67.