WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs. Rice and at Middle

What does WKU need to do start 2-0 in C-USA play?

We are going to know a TON about Conference USA Basketball after this weekend, and we are definitely going to feel something about this WKU Basketball team.

What will it be?

Exasperation? Fervor? Relief? Dumbfoundification?

All of these are possible. And all of those are possibly words.

Conference USA in general has several incredible matchups this weekend. How about FAU and North Texas? Good lord. That’s two top 100 teams at 1-0 in conference battling it out for all kinds of positioning in and out of conference. MTSU/Charlotte, another matchup of near-Top 100 teams (Middle is #105 in the NET). UTEP/UAB will establish some hierarchy if nothing else. Then of course, there is WKU/Rice. WKU looks vulnerable right now and Rice is on the backfoot with a weird scheduling strategy by C-USA to put the Owls in a game against Middle in mid-November. Rice lost by 35 to Middle on that night.

Then Saturday, the matchups aren’t nearly as interesting on paper, but Rice/UTEP should be pretty good and even, along with WKU and MTSU being the highlight on national TV at a pretty good time slot at 3 in the afternoon.

It’s about to go from the speed limit on the interstate to NASCAR at Talladega.

So much information is about to come forward, and we will finally know who is good and who is not, who is going to do anything and who is going to get fired.

So what does WKU need to do to announce to C-USA that the Tops are who they were supposed to be preseason?

Keys to Beating Rice

Demon Possession

If this team does not come out fired up for a thousand reasons, I will be completely baffled. The Tops just lost two winnable “statement” games right before conference play, the fans are up in arms about an 8-3 record, and the coach and staff are taking heat. The rest of the league perceives you as a complete non-threat. From the players’ perspective, they should be pissed off and ready to show the world that this Topper team is for real and that people aren’t going to mess with WKU, and WKU is not going to mess around. If Western is not diving all over the floor and playing with almighty fire, something is wrong.

Fiedler on the Roof

This guy is an absolute nightmare matchup for this year’s WKU team in my opinion. A reminder who this guy is, this is the team that has the center that does everything. Max Fiedler is third in points and first in shooting percentage, rebounds, assists, and blocks. Here’s the problem: Fiedler is a really tall guy that does everything from the elbow. He faces up and then distributes according to what he sees.

This means a 2-3 is probably a disaster against Rice. I hope Rick doesn’t try that, but that’s generally his go-to zone defense. Man-to-man is tough, because they’re going to run baseline cuts and open up shooters on the wings for him to pass to. And also, who on Western’s team can guard someone like that? Dare you try man very much? So what defenses are left? 1-3-1? WKU hasn’t been good at that yet. We haven’t seen a 3-2, but that’s a less common defense that maybe would give them trouble. It would also put two players down on the block to guard the back cuts, but the corners are open for business in a 3-2, and so are baseline drives and midrange jumpers to the side. What’s left? Pressing could be an option, but with such good passing bigs, can they handle things? I think my solution would be to throw some junk at Rice, like a box-and-one with Akot on Fiedler or a 3-2. Maybe try 1-3-1 a little bit. I also like a 1-2-1-1 with Akot or Dayvion at the top.

The point here is watch out for this guy and hope the Tops can slow him down and for sure at least not let him have a career day. Make him think and make him work. That’s the main thing.

Guard the Perimeter

Rice has seven guys that shoot 34% or better from three. You know what that means to me? Maybe the Tops should guard the three. I hope they make the attempt. They did against South Carolina. They did not against Louisville. Western has kept opponents under 40% but allow 33% from three. Part of that is Rick Stansbury’s philosophy of packing the paint without fouling defensively. That’s fine. But I still want to see massive effort to get out on shooters and make them hesitate a little bit.

Make it Ugly

Rice likes pretty basketball. They like assists. They like efficiency. They like being solid and outperforming the opponent. You know the best way to make someone who likes nice things uncomfortable? Start by confusing them. Start talking about your nasty life that you live in squalor. If they bring up wine, bring up Keystone Light. Just redneck this game up and I think this game completely favors WKU. That might seem silly, but I believe Rice will really squirm if they have to think too much, or they have to be careful bringing the ball up every time up the court, or they’re not sure what defense you’re in play-to-play. Tell Jamarion to not move from the paint all game. Whatever it takes. Make it complete chaos.

Concentrate on the Vowels

Quincy Olivari and Travis Evee are two high level scorers. Rice scores nearly 84 per game, but these guys combine for 32+ per game and more than four threes per game. If the Tops can just keep these guys at bay, make them work, and not make them the story of the game, I think WKU will be just fine. These guys wreak havoc on both ends. Keep them in check at all times.

Keys to Beating Middle Tennessee

Understand the Context

Did Middle lose Thursday? Did you? It’s a different game on Saturday based on what happened Thursday. Did one team play longer or harder than the other to get the win Thursday? All of this factors in later in the week. Also, understand this a rivalry game. This is a big deal. The crowd should be fired up. You should have a decent following in Murfreesboro. This is a national TV game. There are lots of reasons to get fired up. Ultimately, who plays well and who gets some luck is pretty much who wins. The context can determine all of that, or it can ruin certain parts of the equation.

Know that Middle is Really Good

I made the mistake of underestimating Middle last year. That was dumb. Sometimes a stat sheet says one thing and reality says another. I interpreted that Middle’s low shooting percentage suggests they’re not very talented, that they don’t have a standout rebounders, so they aren’t filled with top end talent. Well, I was wrong. This year, they’ve got more weapons.

The way I would explain it is Head Coach Nick McDeavitt prefers a certain style. They’re nasty, they gang rebound, and they share the ball. They’re not stat stuffers. They’re stuffing your stats. Basically expect them to do well if this is an ugly game. Unlike Rice, WKU should focus more on good decisions in this one than gaining an upper hand in one way or another. Middle will be comparable athletically to the Tops.

Get Frampton Loose

Luke Frampton has come back to Earth, and that is because he came out hot as blazes and everyone is seeing him as they key to the Topper machine. My guess is everyone will focus on Frampton as one of their keys, including Middle. Whatever Rick has got to do, he needs to get Frampton loose for several three pointers, drives, and other opportunities. If the Tops can get Frampton going against Middle, that troubles the offense of the Blue Raiders to keep up with a higher level of play.

Don’t Be Done With Diagne (pr. “Junn”)

For some reason, Fallou Diagne has not played much lately. I’m not sure if he’s been sick or whatever, but that man can flat out produce some offense, so he really needs to see the court and get some ability to impact this team. WKU has been anemic without his contributions, so why should he not be in, even if he has been some kind of liability in another area?

“Shoot tat ball”

I tell you what it’s all about makin’ some shots. We got some guys own iss team that kin shoot tat ball. It’s a fannn lann tween winnin n losin. In all seriousness, Rick talks about making some shots. You’re going to have make some buckets at Middle. First of all, they’re good defensively, but if you can find ways to beat them in little areas, you can pick them apart. But WKU needs guys like Akot, Hamilton, Allen, Diagne, and Lander to all make a decent portion of their shots. No one needs to go 1-for-11. Against Middle, remember, they like to junk it up. So make it pretty and let’s nail some shots. If somebody starts going off, it’s just really going to be hard for Middle to keep up.

Prediction

I’m having trouble picking the Tops to win both games. I would like to think Western will win two, and maybe they will, but they cannot mess around with either one of these teams. They could easily start 0-2 and then you’ve got a murderer’s row in Conference USA going forward after.

I think what’s most likely is WKU wins against Rice and falls at Middle. It’s going to be tough to win on the road in conference, especially when it’s a good team with a good atmosphere.

It would be thrilling to eat crow here and realize WKU is in better shape than we might all think. But I’ll stick to it. I’ve got Tops over Rice and MTSU over the Tops.