WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs. UAB and MTSU

It's Rivalry Week and WKU is reeling. What do the Tops need to do to get back to .500 in Conference USA?

I’m not sure it’s safe to say the Western Kentucky Basketball team is reeling, but it’s obvious the fans are. WKU has lost three in a row and four of six in Conference USA play.

Rick Stansbury has had two Conference USA records of 4-4, but each of those got better afterwards. WKU needs to win three in a row to match its worst start through nine games ever, and to do that, WKU needs to sweep at home against UAB, who looks like the conference’s best team, and MTSU, who looks like clearly the conference’s most improved team and is WKU’s most historic rival.

At 2-4 in conference, WKU does have company in FIU (1-1 head-to-head) and ODU, who the Tops have not played yet. Marshall sits at a firm last place at 0-6. WKU’s opponent from last Thursday, FAU, sits tied with Charlotte at 4-2. MTSU should presumably beat Marshall in Huntington and come in to Bowling Green with a 4-2 record.

WKU’s Thursday opponent, UAB, is in a three way tie for first in the West at 6-1 and a 16-4 record overall. This is a true bubble team that is fighting for something different night in and night out. The rest of the league is positioning for March. One or two other teams may have some kind of unrealistic prayer, but UAB is the only C-USA team that has any kind of legitimate shot to lose in the Conference USA Tournament and still hope for a spot in the Big Dance.

That’s a long way off, still, but it just goes to show how good UAB has been through its first 20 games. UAB was shocked by Rice January 8, but otherwise has remained unblemished, including snapping La Tech’s home winning streak, something WKU was not able to do despite holding a 17 point lead at one point.

So frankly, WKU is staring down the barrel of a loaded gun and hoping the safety’s on or the firing mechanism is jammed. WKU could very, very easily leave Diddle Saturday at 2-6 in conference play, something they have not done since 2011-12, when WKU went 16-19 and turned its season around under Ray Harper after Ken McDonald was relieved of his duties.

Much like Ken McDonald, Rick Stansbury is taking serious heat for his perceived underachievement this season and really his entire tenure is now being thrown at him as a negative.

Frankly, he deserves the heat. Even if he’s done an overall decent job by some measures (Power Five wins, conference championship appearances, NIT runs, recruiting), he is also historically late on delivering what most WKU fans truly care about: conference championships and NCAA Tournament glory. And many are now pointing to his roster management (huge whiffs in recruits that never work out and NCAA appeals) and his in-game decision making and refusal to play his bench.

This has all come about since blowing a 17 point lead at La Tech. Western then followed up with two nice wins at home by double digits, calming down the fire significantly. However, losing to North Texas, a team WKU should have been incredibly motivated against, really raised some alarm bells. Watching UNT simply play harder and better and more united with a better plan really opened some eyes. North Texas controlled the game from start to finish. It wasn’t like WKU wasn’t playing hard at all, but North Texas was clearly more focused and on point than WKU.

Then the debacles in Florida came. WKU, supposedly fired up and ready to go, comes out and lays an egg at FAU, losing by nine. There were clearly lapses in effort and nearly everyone struggled. Western then comes out at FIU, a team they handled by double digits that at the time was 1-4, and FIU gets up big early and ultimately scored 86 points, winning on an incredible three in the final seconds. Even if FIU made some ridiculous contested shots at the end, what about the rest of the game? What about getting down as much as 18? What about needing multiple spurts of double digit bursts to even be in the game? What about giving up 16 threes? What about once again getting outmaneuvered by in-game coaching in big moments? What about allowing the two best players to have above average games?

Nothing pointed to why WKU should have an excuse to win this game, besides FIU making a bunch of shots. But there was plenty there to say there was no way WKU should have lost that game.

So I say all of that to say that this week’s games are absolutely monumental for the direction of this season. Western could be historically bad by the end of this week. Western could have a losing record against a fairly weak schedule. Western could be severely hampered in a quest for a top two seed in the C-USA East Division. And if WKU somehow makes it through this week without winning, the Hilltoppers go on the road to two places they have historically had issues in at Charlotte and Old Dominion.

The time is now. It won’t be easy.

Let’s lay out what WKU needs to do to get it done this week.

UAB Preview

Let’s put it this way:

UAB would be undefeated if it weren’t for four losses by a combined total of sixteen points. And all of their losses are understandable. They were either against a Power Five school (WVU & South Carolina), a really good San Francisco team (#34 NET), and a conference loss on the road to a pretty good team (Rice). UAB itself sits at #35 in the NET Rankings. The Blazers also average outscoring their opponents about 81-63.

This is a dominant team, and as aforementioned, they beat La Tech at home, something 18 previous opponents had not been able to do. But it the way in which they did it that was impressive! They controlled the game except for a run in the second half when La Tech took a very small, temporary lead. Other than that, the game was near double digits and finished at a margin of seven. And that’s with Kenneth Lofton, Jr. going for 24 and 12 and Amori Archibald dropping in nearly 30. UAB still easily won the game against C-USA’s presumed second best team.

UAB features a volume shooter in Jordan Walker, who led the Blazers in scoring against La Tech with 36 points on 18 shots. All of his points came from made threes or made free throws. Walker shoots 42% from three and 88% from the line. In a strange twist, he shoots only 40% from the field. But this guy does everything and is near the top of the team in everything but shooting percentage.

But that’s not all to UAB. Walker averages 17, the clear “scorer” for the Blazers. However, five more guys average between 7.1 and 11.4 per game, two of those five average more than seven rebounds, nearly everyone that plays averages a steal per game or more, and they have several big bodies that combined provide a significant defensive presence in the paint.

This dominates everything except free throws and fouls. Everything else is clear domination. Maybe their block numbers are not a massive advantage. Other than that, it’s clearly domination. They hold teams under 40% shooting, they hold teams to 7% less shooting from behind the arc, they outrebound their opponents on both ends by two or so per game (with a high emphasis on offensive rebounds), they have a positive assist-to-turnover while opponents barely assist ten times per game while turning it over 18 on average, and they steal the ball over ten times per game while their opponents only average five.

Translation: WKU better play its best and hope UAB isn’t its true best or this could be a complete blowout.

Keys to Victory vs. UAB

Play Harder Than You’ve Played All Season

This is going to take a mammoth effort. Hopefully the crowd is into it from the jump, the student section is “lit”, and WKU comes out and controls UAB like they deep down probably are capable of doing if they really decide they want to. But if WKU doesn’t do the things it slacks on, like boxing out, like hustling after open shooters, like focusing for 40 minutes, UAB will embarrass WKU if they play well themselves.

Big Guys Need to try to Be Better than UAB’s Front Line

UAB has some really good big men, but they’re not great scorers. They’re not elite rebounders. They’re not even elite shot blockers. But combined, they’re a really strong unit. WKU is not deep at all. But who they have are strong possibilities for impactful games. Jairus Hamilton could go off, Jamarion Sharp could play like an All-American, and Jaylen Butz produces numbers, even if he’s awful on a few plays. If someone like Isaiah Cozart gets a chance, maybe he could come in and provide some unexpected punch from the group of big men on this roster. Heck, if Josh Anderson is ever used down low, we could count him. But WKU needs to be as good or better than UAB down low. The main thing here is that they’re impactful and that UAB’s front line doesn’t go off for a combined 40 or more points.

Try Something Completely Different and Unexpected

If I’m Rick Stansbury, I’m playing more than just seven players this game. I need somebody to come in and surprise me with some extra juice. I’m giving Sherman Brashear at least five minutes, if not 8-10 guaranteed. Jaylen Butz should get over ten minutes. Someone else must step up besides the usual six, period. Therefore, for that to happen, somebody has to actually get the minutes to have a chance to impact the game. Otherwise, the usual six players (starters plus Josh Anderson) are forced to contribute 90% of everything against a team that goes at least eight deep, if not up to ten some games, that attacks you relentlessly for 40 minutes.

If you’re not going to budge on your ridiculous rotation principles because someone hasn’t “earned” those minutes, as Rick continues to say in his press conferences, at least try something different defensively. Throw in some press periodically from the beginning of the game and not in panic time. Throw in a 1-3-1 trap. Throw in a 3-2 zone. Do something unpredictable that isn’t really on film and maybe something will actually work to turn what seems like an inevitable tide in your favor unless you do something special.

Guard Jordan Walker Ferociously on the Perimeter, But Don’t Foul Him

Jordan Walker is a scoring machine, clearly capable of scoring well into the 30s against good defense (see his stats @La Tech). He scores 18 per game, but here’s his weakness: He takes a ton of shots but doesn’t draw a ton of fouls. He shoots 42% from three, but only shoots a total of 40% overall. Ok so what does that tell you? Deny the ball. Once he gets it, make him drive. Get your best defender (or closest defender if in zone) up on him like a tight shirt. Tell me what cologne he wears, son. I want to know the brand of his undershirt that you’re so close to him. That may be a Dayvion McKnight assignment, or it could be a Josh Anderson assignment. I lean towards Dayvion, because I think Josh may keep him in front of him. I’d actually like Walker to get inside the arc and then get stopped by a help defender, or the man who’s on him catches back up with him before he drives in and gets fouled. This is an opportunity for WKU. But I honestly doubt this is how Rick Stansbury chooses to go about this assignment. But he is nearly half of their threes and shoots under 40% from two point land. Your call, Rick. Find something better than that if you don’t use it. If Walker is allowed to do whatever and UAB wins easily, that’s foolishness to me.

Play Stansbury Ball

In a game like this, Rick Stansbury’s philosophy of shooting more free throws and being more efficient and trying not to turn the ball over is exactly what you want. My next point will specifically address fouls (see below), but get to the line and don’t over-foul the Blazers. Don’t let them come in and lay it in, but try to avoid silly fouls and make them make shots while playing aggressive one-on-one and team defense. UAB forces 18 turnovers per game, so anything under that is a win. Anything over is extreme trouble for WKU, because with a lack of depth, missed opportunities to shoot the ball and rebound cripple the Tops’ chances.

Drive to the Hole, but Also Shoot Open Shots

Lately, WKU has been getting dominated in the three point department. WKU doesn’t take very many threes and only makes 7.4 per game. Western’s opponents make 10 flat. UAB shoots and allows about the same amount of threes per game, but they shoot closer to 40 and their opponents shoot slightly above 30. That tells me they get teams to take panicked shots. So I would run Luke Frampton and/or Cam Justice or even Jairus Hamilton sparingly along the baseline and set some picks for them to get open shots. This is anti-Rick Stansbury motion offense, so this probably won’t happen. But when is the last time WKU ran a play specifically designed to get Luke Frampton a wide open three? Usually it’s unscripted. Run him or Justice around a little bit and again, do something different than normal in addition to your motion offense.

And in addition and in observance of UAB getting opponents to shoot bad shots, that means they’re up in their grille. They foul a ton. Force yourself in the paint and drive to the hole relentlessly. They don’t have a dominant big man that will erase your shot like Jamarion Sharp. Sure, they have a two or three that will get one or two per game each. But WKU gets a full block more per game than UAB and most of those come from Sharp. Drive it to the hole and let’s see what happens.

UAB Prediction

I’ll keep this short and sweet. I don’t think WKU is going to do anything I’ve suggested. I think they may survive for a while on pure effort and talent by the top six. But I believe Rick Stansbury won’t play his bench, the starters and Anderson will wear out, and UAB will go on its run mid-second half and win by 15 or more. Prove me wrong, Tops. With all of my soul, I want to see something change. For now, I see UAB not only as the better team, but an absolute nightmare of a matchup for WKU. The team that beats UAB will be fundamentally sound, fearless defensively, and deep. WKU is none of those. 2/3 of that could change immediately if they choose to make it so. Sadly, I’ve got WKU losing to UAB, Blazers 83-Hilltoppers 61. Again, please let me be wrong, Tops. We’re begging you!

MTSU Preview

So yeah MTSU is pretty good this year. How good? Well, they’re certainly on track to be better than WKU, for one. Who saw that coming? Not me. But MTSU has gotten through the doldrums of losing Kermit Davis and having him and others raid their roster and has come out as one of the contenders to get a bye in the C-USA Tournament. Right now, it currently looks like the Blue Raiders, Charlotte, and FAU are the frontrunners to win the East. What is going on with the C-USA world right now?!?

Anyway, Western fan’s nightmares are coming true, and Western is average at best and MTSU looks a lot like the Kermit Davis teams did year in and year out. They come in with an overall nice record and continue it into conference play. They come in with a lower computer ranking than most Kermit teams did, but they seem to be good enough to be a dark horse in the C-USA Tournament this year. MTSU is the absolute shocker of C-USA this season, without question. Even if they tank, they’re better than they’ve been in years.

Nevertheless, MTSU is balanced, deep, and plays good defense. They do have trouble shooting, so this could possibly be a pretty good matchup for WKU’s talented lineup. But this is the sign of a really well-coached team: They don’t shoot the ball well, but they don’t turn the ball over, they team rebound, and they take pretty good care of the basketball despite not racking up tons of assists and really don’t have anyone who assists more than 2.5 per game.

That’s a sign of a team whose talent will catch up as they move along the next couple of years. And it’s a sign of a team that is not going to hurt itself. Some teams may just simply be better than them right now, but they are solid in everything that they can control.

Keys to Victory vs. MTSU

Bring the Hate

Until WKU shows me they really want to be successful, my main point for them is going to be that they need to play their guts out. If you’re not ready to vomit by the end of the game and you’ve played over 30 minutes and your team is not playing its best and your team is 3-4 or 2-5 and desperate for a win against your biggest rival, then with the way this season has gone so far, you’re not aware of how desperate you should be to get this back going in the right direction. It’s 100 Miles of Hate. Your blood better boil and you better not lose to Middle, Tops. You want to get people fired up and calling for heads to roll? Lose to Middle.

Play Well and Be Aggressive

MTSU is going to play solid defense and make you work. They’re not used to giving up scores much higher than the mid-70s at the most. They only have a handful of games that have crossed that threshold and they’ve lost most of them. So if WKU can just not be awful, make some shots, and take care of the basketball, I like this matchup much better than UAB. This is a game WKU’s talent should go a long way in winning the game, but I’m still going to be watching for a team on a mission. Don’t fall in love with the three. Drive to the hole. Don’t play passive defense and allow yourself to wonder if you just came after them a little more if you would have won or not had to battle until the buzzer with your best players on the court for 90% of the game.

Play Great Team Defense and Overhelp

This would be the perfect game for a 2-3 zone. There’s no dominant scorer, no dominant driver, and no dominant shooter. That being said, don’t just allow them to get hot from three, either. So play great defense, but your priority is keeping them out of the paint and making them shoot tough shots. I believe this is a perfect game to collapse the paint and actually be ok if they are left open a few times. I say this cautiously, because the Tops still need to try to cover open shooters. Regardless of if you’re under the basket and they pass out to a guy that doesn’t have someone on him within 15 feet, make your way out to him aggressively and force him to feel rushed or see you being aggressive in his direction. It’s human nature to flinch or at least notice when someone comes at you. So don’t just stand there and watch him shoot. That might cause your opponent to brick a few wide open threes that they otherwise constantly make against you.

Be Fundamentally Sound

Middle is extremely fundamentally sound. They’re going to pass well and make good decisions. They’re going to box out. They’re going to play for each other. They’re going to make hustle plays. So if you’re probably the better team talent wise and you want to find a way to lose, be sure you’re terrible at what they are good at and don’t be focused on the task at hand and you’ll give yourself the best chance to lose. If you want to win, try to do what they do better and negate any advantage they may have in those areas.

Cam Justice and Luke Frampton

These two guys are clearly the least athletically gifted players in the rotation. This could be a good matchup for them to step up. Both also played in the Nashville area at another I university, so there may be some Nashville familiarity vibes with them. I’m not saying that will really impact their game, but maybe. I do like this matchup for them. There’s dominant athletic presence or someone that should just drive them crazy. This is a game they may find themselves open and maybe can get back on track. Most often, when someone has a horrible game, it’s usually something about the matchup. With these two guys not being the most flashy or fastest players on the team, I wouldn’t be surprised if a team that’s fundamentally sound but not freakishly athletic gives these two a chance to shine. If WKU loses, I would suspect these two didn’t have a good game at all.

Prediction for MTSU

This is a dangerous game, but for me, the most threatening games usually come down to the matchup. In this case, I like WKU against MTSU most times out, especially in Diddle. I believe WKU’s strengths generally play against MTSU’s weaknesses. So if WKU loses this game outright, I believe this is going to have to be one of the worst games WKU played all season post-Jamarion Sharp starting. It’s hard to fathom a team that shoots 29% from three that fouls more than its opponents and doesn’t have a dominant rebounder or enforcer inside would beat Western Kentucky at home unless the Tops just laid an absolute egg. WKU is an efficient offensive team with a ton of scoring options. MTSU has no one that really stands out in the top ten in C-USA in any category.

So the matchup is not good for MTSU and there’s not a gamebreaker anywhere that is likely to singlehandedly give his team a chance. So MTSU needs someone to just completely go off and score 30 with no turnovers, or MTSU will have to play its best game and hope WKU allows them to steal one.

I could be wrong on this. MTSU is likely going to be 5-2 in C-USA heading into this game, and WKU is likely to be 2-5. But I still think WKU is the better team.

I’ve got WKU winning but not blowing the Blue Raiders out. Let’s say WKU 71-MTSU 61.