WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs. UK

How does WKU beat the Cats in Rupp?

Shocking.

No one from WKU ever saw this actually happening. UK has finally allowed WKU to grace the halls and court in Rupp Arena for the first time in 20 years. Even then, UK reluctantly at best played WKU. And once again, WKU wasn’t the Cats’ first choice. But here we are.

Western and UK have only played six times in history, three of which were forced by NCAA Tournament draw.

But here we are, and WKU gets an impromptu COVID special laced with tornado relief effort sympathy. Whatever it takes for Justice to be served.

Speaking of Justice, Camron Justice is coming off a 25 point explosion against Louisville, the opponent UK was supposed to play in Rupp right before their Christmas break. He and others will need to show up in force in order for the Tops to win today.

WKU (8-4, 0-0 C-USA) is tuning up for its conference season. This is the last game before heading to Southern Miss to kick off conference play next Thursday. Western started out roughly early in the season, not looking grand, looking awful and losing to Power Five programs that probably should have been ticked off as wins if WKU was Sharp, so to speak. But Jamarion Sharp came in to the starting lineup against Alabama A&M to the tune of a triple double with a school record in blocks and WKU has lost once since, and that was to a quality Buffalo team, albeit at home.

UK (8-2, 0-0 SEC) has had some up-and-down performances, as well. UK looked great against Duke, going toe-to-toe with them early on. They just recently took on UNC and trounced them by 29. But then again, UK won by single digits over Miles College, as well as losing to Notre Dame on December 11. So which Wildcat team will show up today at 5:00?

And what does WKU need to do pull off the win against the top 20 ranked Wildcats?

Keys to Victory

Keep the Lineup Sharp

Jamarion Sharp needs to stay out of foul trouble and be a force inside. Points are a bonus. Rebounds are important. If he can play for most of the game and feel free to swat away and go after rebounds, watch out UK. It will be a tough day inside for the Cats if this is the case.

Box Out

WKU can tend to be a little lazy on the box out. Western can fall asleep at times in general. But the one major issue I saw in the Louisville game that could cost a game or two is poor fundamental defensive (and offensive) rebounding. Oscar Tshiebwe averages 16 and 14. How do you accomplish that kind of number? Hustling your guts out and understanding angles and positioning. How do I know it’s hustle? 59 of his 142 rebounds are offensive. More than 1/3 of the balls he picks up off of the board are him crashing the glass. He has more offensive rebounds than anyone else on Kentucky’s team has total rebounds. WKU must be relentless and diligent.

Surprise Performance Somewhere

With WKU’s general lack of depth and Jaylen Butz out due to COVID concerns, somebody has to go off. Or as a group, WKU must be without weakness. If WKU only plays six a la Louisville, Luke Frampton can’t go for four points with no threes, for example. Unless someone else goes for 25+. If it’s not the top six being required to play out of their minds, a Cozart or Brashear need to come in and produce. Most likely that would be Brashear—who averages nearly six per game—but a Cozart coming in and drawing a couple of fouls and scoring ten points and rebounding five or six balls would be a complete and utter addition statistically. Noah Stansbury has also seen minutes. Does he get a shot?

One would assume Rick Stansbury knows he has to try somebody out to help the top six in production. If not, he’s relying on the starting lineup and Josh Anderson to average 12 to even have a chance. Really, they probably need to average 13 or 14 to score enough to overcome Kentucky’s ability to score if no one else contributes. So in my estimation, WKU needs one or two of the stars to just lose it for 25-40 points, or the Tops need someone off of the bench (or multiple) to come in and throw in some unexpected buckets.

If McKnight doesn’t get more assists than Wheeler, we have a Sahvir problem

Sahvir Wheeler averages 7.7 assists for UK. If he is wheeling and dealing and scoring in or near double digits, that spells trouble for WKU. Dayvion McKnight will likely be directly guarding him, so the battle between these two should be really interesting. And this was just a cutesy, punny title to this key, but the point is WKU needs Dayvion McKnight to be really productive. If he’s not at least doing 13-5-5 and a positive assist-to-turnover ratio, then WKU has issues. If he could clean up the turnovers in general, that would be glorious, too. Basically if Wheeler goes off, McKnight is not being effective defensively. If McKnight is not effective offensively, that means WKU is probably not driving the ball and getting to the rim or the foul line.

Play Free, but Make the Percentage Play

This covers a lot of different areas, but basketball is much more about luck than football or soccer. You can’t control if every shot goes in, or if you miss eight in a row or make 9-of-11 to start. But what you can control are your choices within that. Are you shooting an open shot or are you forcing it early in the shot clock? Are WKU’s players moving and creating or standing around and hoping? Does WKU make the front ends of 1-and-1’s? WKU didn’t against Louisville and got lucky they had created enough cushion to survive. Does WKU take too many threes? Do the Tops throw the ball away for no reason? Also, on the flip side of this, does WKU play with a free spirit? Are they gutless or gutsy or in between? Are they diving on the floor? Are they using good fundamentals?

If WKU does the right little things, the big things should come. And if they don’t, as long as Western is doing what it can, luck has a way of working itself out for whoever deserved it more most of the time. Sometimes luck is created. If WKU goes after a ball it has a ten percent chance to save and doesn’t foul, that’s better than staring at it going out of bounds. The percentage play is to be relentless and go for it. But if WKU doesn’t play the percentages in every situation, they probably won’t beat UK.

Prediction

UK looks like it may be coming together. They may have had their “ahha!” moment against Notre Dame and came out against UNC ready to go and they won’t look back this season. But WKU is, too. Western looked pedestrian for several games, and all of a sudden a lineup change flipped the script and WKU is beating quality opponents.

So first of all, both teams can win this game. And both teams have the talent to dominate the other if their best pieces do certain things in the right way. Obviously UK should be the favorite, but don’t be surprised if WKU pulls this upset.

As much as I would love to call a W over UK, I also look at this Kentucky roster and see incredible depth. I see multiple guys who can score, but also a bench that can produce and keep the starters fresh. WKU doesn’t have a bench to speak of. With Jaylen Butz out, WKU could go nine deep but will not against higher level competition.

So like I said in some of the above points, everybody WKU puts out there should contribute something of significance, especially if Stansbury leans more towards the “no more than six get in the mix” approach. Regardless, Stansbury’s approach is valid, because he doesn’t get tons of production from the guys he does put out there that aren’t in the top six right now.

But if WKU needs to score in the 80s, good luck. That means the players that do play must be massively productive. Oscar Tshiebwe is a historically productive monster, and I think he’s the difference maker for this UK team. If WKU could keep him at bay, the Tops would stand a great chance. But I have a feeling he will be drawing some fouls this game. I believe Jairus Hamilton, Jamarion Sharp, or both will be in foul trouble before the end of the first half. Therefore, someone else is going to have to step up.

Who would that be? WKU has significant talent, but that talent has to be at its best to pull this upset.

I don’t think WKU will really be at its best tonight. They’re due for an off night and I don’t like the matchup. I sincerely hope they prove me wrong, but I see a WKU loss here most of the time. I’ve got Kentucky: 72, WKU: 59.