WKU Basketball: Keys to Victory vs. Rice and North Texas

How does WKU get to 3-1 in C-USA Play?

Western Kentucky is off the schneid, getting a win against a pretty good FIU team that played really well Saturday. To use an absolutely horrible non-existent term that makes my inner Grammar Nazi twitch, WKU “out-efficiencied” FIU.

FIU gave WKU’s defense some troubles, pulling Jamarion Sharp from the basket and only allowing him to record three blocks.

If it wasn’t for virtually every player contributing good shooting (besides Jairus Hamilton who continues his slump) and hustle plays galore, WKU well could have struggled or lost the game.

So WKU comes in at 1-1 after melting down against potentially the conference’s best team in La Tech to lose by one on the road and convincingly handle FIU at home. Western could put itself firmly into the spot as the clear East favorite with what looks like a really weak East Division, or it could put itself in big trouble by falling to two teams that have already proven themselves as possible factors in the C-USA West Division.

WKU draws Rice—on Thursday on CBS Sports Network at 8 PM Central in Diddle Arena—who just beat UAB in an absolute shocker (UAB has seemed the runaway favorite until Saturday). Then WKU gets the Grant McCasland-coached North Texas team that ran circles around Rick Stansbury strategically in the conference championship game in 2021.

Rice Preview

The Rice Owls (9-5, 2-1 C-USA) must be on Cloud Nine after beating UAB in Houston Saturday. That was an absolute shocker and that alone has put Rice on everyone’s radar. If they can beat UAB, they can beat anyone, regardless of what court the game was played on.

Since WKU has joined Conference USA, Rice has always hung around the 6-10 spot in conference, rarely being a pushover but also almost never being a real contender or even dark horse. I have never picked them to make any kind of run. They’re just kind of there.

Well, now they will probably get some love if they back up this UAB win at all in any way, shape, or form. So I’m certain WKU will come in focused on Rice and Rice alone. If they don’t, they could easily walk out 1-2 and desperate for a win against North Texas, and you do not want to be desperate against a quality team on two days’ rest.

Rice boasts a very balanced attack with five players scoring at least nine points per game. Center Max Fiedler is a do-it-all high post that leads the team in virtually everything but scoring. Rice is led in scoring by their starting guards, Carl Pierre and Travis Evvy at about 15 points per game each. Rice scores 77 a game and gives up 73, so expect this game to be played in the 70s or above in pace.

Keys to Victory vs. Rice

Get Fired Up

WKU played extremely hard vs. FIU. Western played really well against La Tech except for the last 16 minutes, or if you want to break it down to the last four minutes when WKU was -13. But against FIU, WKU was extremely hungry. Rice is going to come out confident as all get out after beating UAB. This was a program defining win for them. Be shocked if they’re not wild animals out there that taste some blood, or at least expect that until they get knocked down again. Tops need to bring it.

Shoot 47% or Better

When WKU shoots over 47% (their average), WKU is 8-0. WKU is 1-6 when not getting to 47% or better. Rick’s philosophy of “gotta step up and make shots” proves incredibly true with this particular team. 47% is an awesome percentage, but this particular team has not proven a significant ability to win without a big shooting night. If I’m an opposing coach, I’m focusing on junking up the Hilltoppers’ games. Make it a big mess and see if WKU can make free throws and operate a slower, more defensively paced game.

Don’t Let the Big Man Destroy Your Defense

Max Fiedler is a really interesting player. He’s kind of like a way lesser version of Drew Timme from Gonzaga. He does a little bit of everything, but the main area he doesn’t blow you away in on most nights is points. He leads the team in rebounds, assists, turnovers, and blocks. The offense runs through him. This is a really interesting issue because WKU has fallen in love with the 2-3 zone. I feel like with Fiedler in the game, he would help to absolutely shred a 2-3 zone by posting up high and having the ability to pass out to an open shooter.

Surely, Rick Stansbury will see this and try something besides just 2-3 zone and man on Thursday night. Maybe a 1-3-1 would be an interesting twist that would still allow Jamarion Sharp to function down low as the “1” that protects the rim. Or possibly token pressure dissolving into “X” defense would create stagnant possessions resulting in long (hopefully contested) threes. We’ll see what Rick decides to do. But watch for the 2-3 zone to not be as effective as normal Thursday.

Brace Yourself, Evvy

If I’m Rick Stansbury, I’m already looking at Fiedler and figuring out how to mess with him, but I’m also looking at Travis Evvy and Carl Pierre. They are the ones that produce the offense for Rice (30 combined ppg). Everyone else is a role player in that regard (9.7 ppg or less). It’s hard to see if these two don’t combine for their total averages that Rice wins very many games. If WKU can keep these guys under 30 points, 50% from the field, and 40% from three, I sincerely challenge Rice to beat WKU with someone else. Or to beat WKU with defense, since they give up a really high 73 points per game.

Big Men Need to Play Big

It has been several weeks since both Jamarion Sharp and Jairus Hamilton both played a good game. It may be that they are still adjusting to each other since Sharp was not originally in the starting lineup and Hamilton was great early in the year. His production has certainly gone down since Sharp joined the regular rotation, but that may also just be skewed because of this recent slump Hamilton has been in. These issues may not be connected. Regardless, WKU needs Sharp to threaten a triple double every night and Hamilton needs to threaten a double-double or at least be a real offensive threat like he was the first ten or so games of the year.

Rice Prediction

I believe WKU has really been clicking since early December or so, and with the tangible effort against FIU, perhaps the La Tech loss was the wake-up call they needed to get on the bus, so to speak. I think Rice will come in sky high, but beating a good team is one thing. This is coming on the road to a tough environment and doing the same thing, something that is quite different. UAB may be the better team (than WKU), but Rice is not going to be as good as they are on the road as they are at home. ESPN likes Rice slightly more than it did against FIU (whatever that means). I do believe this would have been a trap game if Rice hadn’t beaten UAB. Unfortunately for them, WKU will now definitely give its best effort against the Owls. And WKU usually just matches up well with Rice regardless of the year just based on the kinds of athletes and the matchups. WKU may go back-and-forth a little more than they did against FIU, but I’ve still got WKU winning fairly easily, 77-67.

North Texas Preview

WKU draws North Texas in what ends up being one of the most difficult 1-2 punches in Conference USA between Rice and UNT. This is especially true given Rice’s recent win. But North Texas is enough to handle on its own. WKU was probably slightly better and more talented than North Texas last year, but Grant McCasland is one of the bright young coaching stars, and he flat out outsmarted Rick Stansbury in the 2021 Conference USA Championship.

And although UNT lost some really good players, they’re back and reloaded and looking like a lock for the NIT regardless of performance in C-USA. Although that last part doesn’t sound particularly impressive, what that means is they’re a very good school in Conference USA and they’re battle tested and have come out looking fairly well. Their only loss so far in conference is to UAB by six in a back-and-forth affair. So there’s no shame there, and there’s no question UNT should be one of the four schools considered as the co-favorites to win C-USA (UAB, La Tech, UNT, and WKU).

North Texas boasts a leading scorer that comes exclusively off of the bench in Tylor Perry. Perry leads the Mean Green far and away in several categories: Points, three point shooting, free throw percentage, assists (and A/TO ratio), and steals. UNT uses a really unique rotation, with six guys playing 20+ minutes and a seventh man playing 15 minutes per game. No one else has played every game for the Mean Green. So in this way, the two teams are mirror images in terms of depth. WKU has zero depth, either.

The Mean Green boast an incredible defense that only allows 56 points per game. They themselves only score 67, so expect UNT to try to minimize WKU possession opportunities, crashing the glass and being methodical on the offensive end. This is not a massive swing from last season, but last season’s team at least could get into the 70s on most nights. This team has only scored 70 or more four times this season. This team’s defense is definitely better.

Keys to Victory vs. North Texas

Be Efficient

I know it’s redundant to have basically the same point to start out in both games, but with North Texas’ style, efficiency is even more important. UNT allows about 41% shooting, which is pretty good but not top 100 level defense (WKU is actually 58th in defensive FG%). What UNT does is strangle you to death. They’re all about hustle, fundamentals, and good decision making. UNT doesn’t have the depth this season, so they’re slowing the ball down even more than last season, lulling the opponent to sleep. WKU needs to be patient and try to get North Texas out of whack offensively and defensively. Challenge them in transition. They will not like a game even in the upper 60s or 70s.

Play Your Style of Basketball

UNT offensively has only scored 70 or more four times, meaning if WKU scores that many, they have a 75% chance of winning, at least. That number should probably be higher, because UNT’s only great asset is its defense. UNT does not have the offensive options of years passed, although they do have players that can score at times. If WKU comes way above 70, good luck to the Mean Green. UNT’s goal should be to keep WKU under 65. A game in the upper 60s is a “Tums Tosser”, as Randy Lee would say. Anything lower is advantage UNT. 70 and up is almost a definite WKU win. WKU has not lost when scoring more than 73 all season. Only once did WKU win a game scoring under 73, and that was 71 (vs. Ole Miss on 12/11).

HALLELUJER

Tylor Perry is a good player that comes off of the bench but leads UNT in basically everything. Talk about leadership! This is similar to the role Josh Anderson is currently playing (hats off to JA), but this guy leads the team in almost all relevant categories. Just don’t let him beat you and you’ve got to feel good about your chances. He’s going to make plays, but don’t let him dominate the proceedings. Shut him down.

Get Something From the Bench

UNT’s bench gets well into the 20s per game and they only score 67. WKU’s bench doesn’t do near that. On average, WKU’s starters are at least 80% of the output. It can’t just be Josh Anderson and the starters. Much like against FIU, the Tops need some production from a Sherman Brashear, Jaylen Butz, or Isaiah Cozart or it may be difficult to score enough to beat UNT. What if JA goes cold? He’s due for a bad game. What if Frampton and Justice can’t hit anything? Then what? You need your bench, especially when the other team has a productive one and has the horses to possibly slow down your efficient offense.

Throw it Up to Sharp

UNT has no player taller than 6’10” and he only plays 20 minutes. They have several 6’8” guys, but Jamarion Sharp is going to be nine full inches taller than whoever guards him most of the game. There is no reason in the world WKU shouldn’t be able to throw it up to the big man and let him throw down a couple of rim rockers. UNT also has no rim protector, with no single player blocking more than one shot. Sharp should feast on both ends.

North Texas Prediction

This feels like a Bailey Zappe type of issue for most teams. A team that shuts teams down defensively just probably isn’t going to shut WKU down, at least not completely. WKU has played some quality teams and still is yet to score below 60 points in any one game. UNT gives up 56. Something has to give here, and I don’t think a team that has over half a season in the books is going to all of a sudden score 48 points or something.

So the question is, “Can North Texas score enough?” Well, for me, that becomes difficult because WKU also plays really good defense to the tune of not allowing opponents to shoot 40%. And UNT only shoots 42% anyway. What am I getting at? Spit it out, you say?

This is a tough matchup for UNT. They’ll match up well against some teams, but WKU’s only severe weakness is depth, and guess what UNT doesn’t have? Depth. Other than that, they have size, talent, shooting ability, and the ability to shut you down defensively.

I wouldn’t be shocked if UNT found a way to win. Grant McCasland is an incredible young coach that I have always been impressed with. But I still think WKU will be awake from that early season loss against La Tech, and they’ll also be on high alert and in revenge mode against UNT, who is still one of the better teams in C-USA despite losing Javion Hamlet and others from the 2021 Championship squad.

I like UNT as a matchup nightmare for a lot of teams in C-USA, but I love WKU against UNT, especially in Diddle. This could be a really good game if UNT can frustrate WKU. I think they will, but WKU’s focus, will, and overall better talent will win the day.

I’ve got WKU 69-UNT 62.