WKU Basketball: Matt’s Stats — Conference USA Tournament Outlook
Matt’s Stats is simple.
Matt’s Stats is simple.
I take a burning question, a topic, or in this case, a conference tournament on the horizon, and I use stats to help me figure out the answer.
In this case, in both men’s and women’s basketball, who is going to win the 2019 Conference USA Tournament next week?
Men’s Basketball
2018–19 MBB Preseason Poll
WKU (9)
Marshall (5)
Old Dominion
North Texas
UTSA
Louisiana Tech
Southern Miss
UAB
Middle Tennessee
FIU
UTEP
Florida Atlantic
Charlotte
Rice
Note: First-place votes in parentheses
Final 2018–19 C-USA Standings
Old Dominion
WKU
Southern Miss
UTSA
UAB
Marshall
FIU
La Tech
UNT
FAU
Rice
MTSU
Charlotte*
UTEP*
*Did not make 2019 C-USA Tournament
Seeds 1–12: The Facts
Old Dominion (23–8, 13–5 C-USA)
NET Ranking: 91
PPG: 67.3
Opponent PPG: 61.1
Best Conference Win: vs. #2 WKU (twice)
Worst Conference Loss: at #9 FAU
Record vs. side of the bracket: 4–3
Comments: ODU was picked third, but voters did not anticipate WKU and Marshall being less cohesive than expected. Voters also didn’t know ODU would be this good, either. Old Dominion has quietly won games it should have, playing great defense and pairing it with really experienced star players. Old Dominion had the one seed locked up since the first game of pod play. Old Dominion has skid into the tournament, though, losing its last two games after having not lost since January 26.
Draw: Old Dominion draws UTSA, UAB, Louisiana Tech, FAU, and MTSU. The main threats are certainly UTSA and UAB. ODU does avoid Marshall, WKU, and Southern Miss, all of which have beaten or threatened ODU. However, something to watch would be if FAU beats La Tech. ODU lost to FAU on the road. This is overall a pretty good draw, but ODU does not feel like the prohibitive favorite after losing two. They would’ve been a massive favorite if they had swept pod play, or possibly even lost only one game.
2. Western Kentucky (18–13, 11–7 C-USA)
NET Ranking: 121
PPG: 72.1
Opp. PPG: 70.4
Best Conference Win: at/vs #3 Southern Miss
Worst Conference Loss: #8 La Tech
Record vs. side of the bracket: 5–2
Comments: WKU gets the two seed by tiebreaker. Picked first in the preseason, WKU ends up about where they should have been. However, the Tops were expecting to be sniffing an at-large bid instead of sitting well outside the top 100 in the country. Western is plenty dangerous, but can they put it together at the right time? WKU lost its last game in overtime on Senior Night in Bowling Green.
Draw: WKU gets USM, Marshall, FIU, UNT, and Rice. This draw is about as good as WKU could hope. The Tops get to avoid the three pod mates it lost to in the regular season, but Marshall and Southern Miss are absolutely capable of winning the entire tournament. FIU, an opponent WKU lost to, stands likely to advance to face the Toppers in the quarterfinal. However, FIU played out of its mind, and WKU tanked to allow the Golden Panthers to win. Overall, this is a pretty good draw. WKU will only have to face one of the true threats on this side of the bracket in Marshall and Southern Miss.
3. Southern Miss (19–11, 11–7 C-USA)
NET: 102
PPG: 72.8
Opp. PPG: 64.2
Best Conference Win: #1 Old Dominion
Worst Loss: #11 Rice
Record vs. side of the bracket: 2–4
Comments: USM is one of the hotter teams in Conference USA, winning eight of ten. USM held its own in the top pod and found a way to earn the third seed. Southern Miss does not boast huge size, but they’re very well coached and do not beat themselves. USM owns wins over most of the main contenders with the exception of WKU.
Draw: USM draws WKU, Marshall, FIU, UNT, and Rice. Western is obviously a big obstacle for Southern, especially with their huge size. For whatever reason, Southern absolutely slaughtered Marshall by 50 in Hattiesburg. If Rice happens to beat Marshall, USM lost to Rice in early January. This is not a great draw for Southern. Marshall is playing well, WKU owns them in the paint, and all of their impressive wins are on the other side of the bracket. Does Southern Miss have enough talent to overcome bad match-ups and a tough draw? I don’t think so.
4. UTSA (17–14, 11–7 C-USA)
NET: 129
PPG: 77.6
Opp. PPG: 74.9
Best Conference Win: #1 Old Dominion
Worst Loss: at #12 Middle Tennessee
Record vs. Side of the bracket: 3–4
Comments: The Roadrunners should certainly be considered one of the most dangerous in Conference USA. With two players that can score in the 30s in Jhivvan Jackson and Keaton Wallace and balanced role players with talent behind them, UTSA is certainly on my short list as a possible champion. Two questions for UTSA: Can they stop anyone, and can they hold their own inside?
Draw: UTSA gets ODU, UAB, La Tech, FAU, and MTSU. Honestly, UTSA’s draw is terrible for them. Not only do they likely face two other teams from the top pod, if there is an upset, they lost to two of those three teams, as well. The only underdog team UTSA fared well against was FAU, and that was a two point win at home against a team unlikely to make it to the semifinals. Perhaps the only two teams UTSA matches up well against are Old Dominion and UAB, who are just good teams to begin with. Yikes.
5. UAB (18–13, 10–8 C-USA)
NET: 146
PPG: 70.3
Opp. PPG: 67.4
Best Conference Win: #1 Old Dominion
Worst Conference Loss: #13 Charlotte
Record vs. side of the bracket: 3–5
Comments: UAB is a really good defensive team without question. However, the question is always, “Can they score enough to make a run?” Judging by their lack of more than four wins in a row, the answer is probably no. They will need four games in four days to win Conference USA for the first time since 2015.
Draw: UAB gets ODU, UTSA, La Tech, FAU, and Middle. The main issue here is UTSA and ODU, but the Blazers should have confidence against both of those, splitting the series. The concern is losing twice to Middle, which is now playing much better basketball than earlier in the season. They face Middle in the first round of the tournament. This is a decent draw for a five seed, but the five is one of the toughest roads in a 12 team format.
6. Marshall (18–11, 11–7 C-USA)
NET: 151
PPG: 80.4
Opp. PPG: 82.1
Best Conference Win: #1 Old Dominion
Worst Conference Loss: #11 Rice
Record vs. side of the bracket: 4–4
Comments: Marshall was picked second in the preseason and massively disappointed. Perhaps voters underestimated the loss of the nation’s leading shot blocker on a team that gave up nearly 80 points per game last year. This year, they give up over 82. That’s disastrous, but they have won five in a row and are looking like a different team. I’d watch out for Marshall. As the defending champs, they will expect to run the table, regardless of the low seed.
Draw: Marshall gets WKU, USM, FIU, UNT, and Rice. I like this draw for them. Yes, they have some losses against this side of the bracket, but every team they might face has significant flaws. Plus, they’re playing significantly better basketball than when they took on those losses. Marshall has a realistic road to another championship. I would say they’re unlikely, simply because of the defense.
7. FIU (19–12, 10–8 C-USA)
NET: 189
PPG: 83.8
Opp. PPG: 80.9
Best Conference Win: #2 WKU
Worst Conference Loss: at #14 UTEP
Record vs. side of the bracket: 4–3
Comments: FIU is an explosive offensive team. No question at all. They have an incredible overall record for a seventh seed in a conference tournament and the fourth best overall in the conference. They are not a joke. More than likely, FIU will threaten an upset rather than making a run themselves.
Draw: FIU gets WKU, USM, Marshall, North Texas, and Rice. This is a great draw for FIU. They get WKU, a team they knocked out in Diddle Arena, no small feat. To repeat would be monumental, though. FIU starts with UNT, who has lost six in a row. If they pass through WKU after beating UNT, they would get someone like a Marshall or Southern Miss. Without question, this is a great draw for the Golden Panthers.
8. La Tech (19–12, 9–9 C-USA)
NET: 119
PPG: 73.3
Opp. PPG: 68.5
Best Conference Win: #2 WKU
Worst Conference Loss: #13 Charlotte
Record vs. side of the bracket: 4–2
Comments: Look at that NET rating! An eight seed with one of the best computer rankings is a sign of the bizarre nature of La Tech the past few years. La Tech is extremely dangerous. They’re so inconsistent, so I don’t expect a run, but a trip to the semifinals or so is entirely possible.
Draw: This draw is not great for them. Yes, they’re 4–2 against their side, but all but one of those wins they will not see until the semifinals. However, what eight seed is going to be thrilled with their draw? Not many will rejoice at playing the one seed in the quarterfinals. If your team is an 8 or 9, buck up and beat the one seed like Southern Miss did to Middle last season. My gut says La Tech would not be a great match-up against Old Dominion, so they’ll bow out in the first or second round.
9. FAU (17–14, 8–10 C-USA)
NET: 148
PPG: 71
Opp. PPG: 68.3
Best Conference Win: #1 Old Dominion
Worst Conference Loss: #13 Charlotte
Record vs. side of bracket: 3–3
Comments: FAU is another quality team. It’s incredible how many teams slip well inside the Top 200 in Conference USA. Again, they’re dangerous and have a track record of beating ODU, albeit in Boca early in the year. FAU is a well-rounded team. They’re capable scorers, but can also play some defense.
Draw: The Owls will see ODU, UTSA, UAB, La Tech, and Middle on their side of the bracket. FAU split at home to La Tech, so perhaps La Tech should be slightly favored. This draw is brutal for the Owls. Who besides Middle — who is incredibly unlikely to make it to the semis — would they feel great against? Unfortunately, but they certainly are a land mine for Old Dominion in the quarterfinals if they make it. However, La Tech will probably be slightly favored.
10. North Texas (20–11, 8–10 C-USA)
NET: 144
PPG: 70.7
Opp. PPG: 62.7
Best Conference Win: #3 Southern Miss
Worst Conference Loss: #9 FAU (twice)
Record vs. side of the bracket: 4–4
Comments: This is honestly one of the sadder stories in the country. North Texas was nearly ranked early in the season, starting 16–1 against, granted, a soft schedule. However, injuries plagued the Mean Green, who have since lost all but four games and six in a row. On top of that, no matter what, they must face four really good teams to win a conference championship.
Draw: UNT draws WKU, USM, Marshall, FIU, and Rice. First, UNT gets FIU, a team it just got smoked by 15, albeit on the road. Then they would get WKU, a team that beat them on the road. Then they would get the winner of other teams they beat early in the season, but when injuries are factored in, the Mean Green will be lucky to get one win, let alone making a run.
11. Rice (13–18, 8–10 C-USA)
NET: 194
PPG: 74.3
Opp. PPG: 77.4
Best Conference Win: #3 Southern Miss
Worst Conference Loss: at #14 UTEP
Record vs. side of the bracket: 2–4
Comments: I did not realize this, but that is 11 of 12 seeds inside the top 200 in the country. Scoff at Conference USA’s year overall, but these teams are not utter garbage as many fans may feel. Rice is another example of a C-USA program with a chance to upset. With the ability to score well into the 70s on a nightly basis, Rice could surprise someone by simply outscoring the opponent.
Draw: The Owls see WKU, USM, Marshall, FIU, and UNT. Starting out with a really hot Marshall team is pretty rough, but Rice should take confidence in the fact that they defeated their first two opponents, and their most likely semifinal opponent needed overtime to beat them. This is an awesome draw for the Rice Owls. Most likely what would happen is losing to Marshall, but if they get past the Herd, who knows what could happen? Rice could do serious damage to any team in C-USA.
12. MTSU (11–20, 8–10 C-USA)
NET: 246
PPG: 67.1
Opp. PPG: 72.4
Best Conference Win: #4 UTSA
Worst Conference Loss: #11 Rice
Record vs. side of the bracket: 3–3
Comments: Abandoned by departed head coach Kermit Davis, MTSU’s roster is completely decimated. It took the Blue Raiders a full two and a half months to catch any kind of rhythm, starting out the season 3–14, including losing 13 in a row until what seemed to be randomly beating UTSA in the middle of January. From that point forward, Middle finished the year 8–6. Middle is a team to be respected, partly because the program is very used to significant success, but also because they are playing some of the best basketball in Conference USA. Laugh at Middle’s record at your peril. Middle has nearly as much of a chance as anyone at this point.
Draw: Middle could face a combination of ODU, UTSA, UAB, La Tech, and FAU if they were fortunate enough to run to the semifinals. Honestly, could Middle ask for a better draw than this? They don’t have to face ODU until the semis, they likely get two teams they beat in the regular season in UAB and UTSA. If they get to the semis, any of the three teams beat Middle, but none of them convincingly. In addition, two of the losses were during their early season losing streak. ODU has to get through a competent opponent to even reach a potential game against Middle. Has any 12 seed had a better draw in history?
Men’s Basketball Prediction: WKU Defeats UTSA in Overtime, 87–84
Conference USA is a total crapshoot. What other conference in the country has only one team inside the top 100, yet all but one of its tournament participants are inside the top 200? The one team that is not in there is a team that is 8–6 in its last 14 games. No team is on longer than a five-game winning streak, and that team, Marshall, did not have to face the conference’s best because of falling into the second pod. This is truly incredible, and I’ve been looking at and analyzing these types of scenarios for years.
First of all, several teams have nice draws, and frankly, the WKU side of the draw seems a much nicer one to be in. Several teams can score the basketball, but few defend. Others, like Southern Miss, are well-rounded but don’t match up well with the Hilltoppers. If Marshall happens to get to the semifinals — which is a big if — they could dethrone the Tops. However, without Adjin Penava in the middle, Marshall is not remotely as good in the middle. Factor in the revenge quotient, and WKU will be more fired up to play Marshall than the other way around if the Herd happened to be there. WKU will play two close games, but will ultimately be juiced up for these match-ups and find a way to the championship.
On the other side of the bracket, wow! What a brutal collection of teams. Each team poses a legit threat. Some, like UTSA and FAU, can score like crazy. Others such as ODU, UAB, and La Tech can play defense. Even the 12 seed, Middle, is hot of late. This side is so much more difficult to predict. Land mines are everywhere. I would pick ODU if they weren’t so likely to face good offensive teams. In addition, Old Dominion has skid into the conference tournament, losing its last two.
ODU has difficulty with explosive offenses. Because they are so defensive minded, a team that can fill it up could take down ODU on the right night. That’s why I predict either FAU (if they beat La Tech) or UTSA to take down the Monarchs before the championship. If they don’t have to face those two teams, I would pick ODU without hesitation.
In the championship between WKU and UTSA, I believe Western will have a bit of an easier time against FIU or North Texas, which will allow them to have enough energy to finish off a game UTSA in the championship final. UTSA will have to beat UAB or Middle and then turn around the next night and beat Old Dominion. That is brutal, and WKU should be solidly favored in both of its games before the final.
I believe the stats and match-ups bear this out, but WKU is a rare breed of mid-major that can go big, small, quick, athletic, defensive, or offensive. Versatility, talent, and myriad offensive threats go a long way in a tournament setting. WKU has five or six players on the roster who could easily change a game by simply hitting a few shots or getting to the basket. And without question, Rick Stansbury has some of the most big-time tournament experience of anyone in Conference USA.
Therefore, I’ll take the Tops to win three games in three days.
Women’s Basketball
(Sorry, Conference USA. I would use your brackets, but much like your TV coverage, they’re terrible, took very little into consideration, and just don’t look good.)
Rice is amazing, having only lost three games all year, currently ranked in the AP poll. They do have a tough road, with competent opponents all of the way to the championship round no matter what. However, of Rice’s 16 games (of which they are 16–0), the Owls have played one single digit game, a game in which they bludgeoned ODU with defense, allowing 42 points in a come-from-behind victory by six in early February. Rice should probably get an at-large bid, regardless of its performance in the tournament.
Clearly below the Owls in a second tier is UAB, the preseason favorite. They’ve won five in a row, including beating Middle, WKU, and Marshall. The Blazers have a decent draw, but facing Charlotte in the quarterfinal could be tricky if that happened to be the case. However, Charlotte has to get through La Tech, who thrashed them by 37 in January. UAB could easily face a 10 seed for the right to get to the semifinals, and Middle has a tough draw to get to that point, as well. Could UAB waltz to the finals on a miracle draw?
Completely even with UAB is Middle Tennessee. Much improved and coached by (hate to say it) a great coach in Rick “Finally Wore a Nice Suit in His Life” Insell, Middle is always dangerous but frankly has a tough draw with a Marshall team that has played awesome basketball the last month and a half.
Then there is WKU, which is playing well and is on even footing with the other higher seeds. Western should probably be included with UAB and Middle in terms of quality, but WKU has been much more inconsistent this season, has more deficiencies, and has by far the tougher road. WKU has to (likely) face Marshall, who is playing good basketball and took the Tops to overtime a few weeks ago. Then WKU gets the winner of Rice, USM, and North Texas (all of which they lost to once at home by no less than nine). Then they likely play Middle and UAB, both of which they lost to on the road convincingly.
In a third tier, Old Dominion immediately has to turn around and face FAU, who just took them to the wire on Thursday, then gets rewarded WKU (who beat them by 15 in January), then Rice, and then the other side of the bracket. ODU has had a great, surprise season, but it may end very quickly because of the draw.
Marshall is an interesting team to watch. First of all, they don’t get WKU or Rice, who beat them with ease. They would face Middle if they beat a UTEP team that should be swept away quickly. The Herd upset the Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro three weeks ago. They would not have to face a team they lost to until the semifinals. That’s a great draw for a dark horse sixth seed in a top heavy conference tournament. Marshall could certainly be left standing from UAB’s side of the bracket.
Charlotte slots in the seventh spot, and again, a heck of a draw. If Charlotte could get through La Tech, who thrashed them in January, they could easily march to the semis or better. Charlotte is very dangerous and is always talented.
Southern Miss could bust everyone’s hopes in C-USA. Few teams have won more games since February started, and very few teams in the country are coached by legends. Joye Lee-McNelis frankly makes chicken salad out of chicken poop year in and year out. She very rarely has a team with an eight seed, and this is probably the most dangerous eight seed in Conference USA in a long time. Watch for Southern Miss.
Ninth seeded North Texas is another possible option to take out Rice. Never underestimate the power of proximity, but UNT could sleep in their own beds and have a significant crowd on hand. This may be unrealistic with two teams likely to lose in the first round, but UNT could easily bake up some home cooking and make a run. They’re also big enough and could match-up well against a team like Southern Miss.
Louisiana Tech is another program steeped in tradition that could upset a few people. Not having to face Rice is great for them, and this team mysteriously tanked in conference play. At 6–10 in conference, La Tech could easily finish with a .500 record overall by making the semis. They’re much better than their seed, as well.
Yeah ok I’m done talking about possible dark horses. UTEP shouldn’t stand a chance against Marshall. They have eight overall wins, for Pete’s sake. However, they’ve won five in conference, so they’re not a complete doormat. Shocking Marshall would make life easier for Middle, though.
FAU lucked out with an RPI good enough to make the tournament as the 12 seed. However, facing ODU is actually not a bad draw. Unfortunately, they get WKU and then almost certainly Rice, if they’re somehow able to pull off a miracle. Their only conference wins are against teams that didn’t make the conference tournament. Hey at least they made the tournament, right?
Prediction
First of all, the obvious question…
Can anyone beat Rice? I think it’s possible, but the proof is in the pudding. Any team that goes 16–0 with one single digit win against a conference that yields a second place team with four losses is a conference that the favorite should win going away. However, their draw is not easy, and they may be distracted by the NCAA Tournament and overlook a seemingly weak opponent.
In all likelihood, the Rice Owls will face three competent, conference championship hopeful teams. WKU is certainly capable, especially with their offensive firepower and NCAA Tournament experience across the board. Southern Miss could shock the Owls by simply outsmarting them with great coaching, but unfortunately for everyone else, Rice feels like an awful match-up for Southern Miss. UAB and Middle are also very capable squads that could represent Conference USA very well if they were the C-USA Tournament Champion.
UAB seems to be the strong favorite on the other side of the bracket, and unless there is some blaring reason to go against the grain, women’s basketball is so much more likely to result in chalk. As boring as that is, and how much I want WKU to face UTEP in the finals, I don’t see how that’s possible. I am extremely tempted to pick WKU to shock the world, but I’m just not buying it quite yet. I think everyone in the conference would love to see it, without question. However, the Tops are just too inconsistent, and will bow out in the closest game Rice faces in the tournament.
I do see Marshall and Middle as threats in UAB’s quest to get to the conference championship final, but I see UAB and Rice facing in the championship, with Rice taking UAB down by double digits.